News
Nevada Cross-Tabs: May 2024 Times/Siena Poll
Methodology
How These Polls Were Conducted
Here are the key things to know about this set of polls from The New York Times, The Philadelphia Inquirer and Siena College:
• We spoke with 4,097 registered voters from April 28 to May 9, 2024.
• Our polls are conducted by telephone, using live interviewers, in both English and Spanish. Nearly 95 percent of respondents were contacted on a cellphone for this poll.
• Voters are selected for the survey from a list of registered voters. The list contains information on the demographic characteristics of every registered voter, allowing us to make sure we reach the right number of voters of each party, race and region. For this set of polls, we placed nearly 500,000 calls to about 410,000 voters.
• To further ensure that the results reflect the entire voting population, not just those willing to take a poll, we give more weight to respondents from demographic groups underrepresented among survey respondents, like people without a college degree. You can see more information about the characteristics of our respondents and the weighted sample at the bottom of the page, under “Composition of the Sample.”
• When the states are joined together, the margin of sampling error among registered voters is plus or minus 1.8 percentage points. Each state poll has a margin of error ranging from plus or minus 3.6 points in Pennsylvania to plus or minus 4.6 points in Georgia. In theory, this means that the results should reflect the views of the overall population most of the time, though many other challenges create additional sources of error. When computing the difference between two values — such as a candidate’s lead in a race — the margin of error is twice as large.
If you want to read more about how and why we conduct our polls, you can see answers to frequently asked questions and submit your own questions here.
Methodology
The New York Times/Philadelphia Inquirer/Siena College poll in Pennsylvania and the Times/Siena polls in Arizona, Georgia, Michigan and Nevada were conducted in English and Spanish on cellular and landline telephones from April 28 to May 9, 2024. In all, 4,097 registered voters were interviewed. When all states are joined together, the margin of sampling error is plus or minus 1.8 percentage points for all registered voters and plus or minus 1.9 percentage points for the likely electorate.
The margin of sampling error for each state poll is plus or minus 3.6 percentage points in Pennsylvania, plus or minus 4.2 points in Arizona, plus or minus 4.5 points in Michigan, Nevada and Wisconsin, and plus or minus 4.6 percentage points in Georgia.
The Pennsylvania poll was funded by a grant from the Lenfest Institute for Journalism. The poll, which was designed and conducted independently from the institute, includes a deep look at voters in the Philadelphia suburbs using a statistical technique called an oversample. The results are weighted so that in the end, the poll properly reflects the attributes of the entire state and is not biased toward those voters.
Sample
The survey is a response-rate-adjusted stratified sample of registered voters on the L2 voter file. The sample was selected by The New York Times in multiple steps to account for the oversample of the Philadelphia suburbs, differential telephone coverage, nonresponse and significant variation in the productivity of telephone numbers by state.
The L2 voter file for each state was stratified by statehouse district, party, race, gender, marital status, household size, turnout history, age and homeownership. The proportion of registrants with a telephone number and the mean expected response rate, based on prior Times/Siena polls, were calculated for each stratum. The initial selection weight was equal to the reciprocal of a stratum’s mean telephone coverage and modeled response rate. For respondents with multiple telephone numbers on the L2 file, the number with the highest modeled response rate was selected.
Fielding
The samples for each state were stratified by party, race and region and fielded by the Siena College Research Institute, with additional field work by ReconMR, the Public Opinion Research Lab at the University of North Florida, the Institute for Policy and Opinion Research at Roanoke College, and the Center for Public Opinion and Policy Research at Winthrop University in South Carolina. Interviewers asked for the person named on the voter file and ended the interview if the intended respondent was not available. Overall, 94 percent of respondents were reached on a cellular telephone.
The instrument was translated into Spanish by ReconMR, and Spanish-speaking interviewers were assigned to the modeled Hispanic sample. Bilingual interviewers began the interview in English and were instructed to follow the lead of the respondent in determining whether to conduct the survey in English or Spanish. Monolingual Spanish-speaking respondents who were initially contacted by English-speaking interviewers were recontacted by Spanish-speaking interviewers. Overall, 19 percent of interviews among self-reported Hispanics were conducted in Spanish, including 21 percent in Nevada and 17 percent in Arizona.
An interview was determined to be complete for the purposes of inclusion in the ballot test questions if the respondent did not drop out of the survey by the end of the two self-reported variables used in weighting — age and education — and answered at least one of the age, education, race or presidential election ballot test questions.
Weighting — registered voters
The survey was weighted by The Times using the R survey package in multiple steps.
First, the samples were adjusted for unequal probability of selection by stratum.
Second, the five state samples and the samples of the the Philadelphia suburbs and the rest of Pennsylvania were weighted separately to match voter-file-based parameters for the characteristics of registered voters by state.
The following targets were used:
• Party (party registration if available, else classification based on a model of vote choice in prior Times/Siena polls) by modeled L2 race (except Wisconsin)
• Age by gender (self-reported age, or voter file age if the respondent refuses)
• Race or ethnicity (L2 model)
• Education (four categories of self-reported education, weighted to match NYT-based targets derived from Times/Siena polls, census data and the L2 voter file)
• White/nonwhite by education (L2 model of race by self-reported education, weighted to match NYT-based targets derived from Times/Siena polls, census data and the L2 voter file)
• Marital status (L2 model)
• Homeownership (L2 model)
• State regions (NYT classifications by county or city)
• Turnout history (NYT classifications based on L2 data)
• Vote method in the 2020 elections (NYT classifications based on L2 data)
• History of voting in the 2020 presidential primary (Pennsylvania and Wisconsin only, NYT classifications based on L2 data)
• Census block group density (Arizona only, based on American Community Survey five-year census block-group data)
• Census tract educational attainment
In Pennsylvania, the samples from the Philadelphia suburbs and the rest of the state were combined and adjusted to account for the oversample of the Philadelphia suburbs.
Finally, the six state samples were balanced to each represent one-sixth of the sum of the weights.
The sample of respondents who completed all questions in the survey was weighted identically, as well as to the result for the general election horse race question (including leaners) on the full sample.
Weighting — likely electorate
The survey was weighted by The Times using the R survey package in multiple steps.
First, the samples were adjusted for unequal probability of selection by stratum.
Second, the first-stage weight was adjusted to account for the probability that a registrant would vote in the 2024 election, based on a model of turnout in the 2020 election.
Third, the five state samples and the samples of the Philadelphia suburbs and the rest of Pennsylvania were weighted separately to match targets for the composition of the likely electorate. The targets for the composition of the likely electorate were derived by aggregating the individual-level turnout estimates described in the previous step for registrants on the L2 voter file. The categories used in weighting were the same as those previously mentioned for registered voters.
In Pennsylvania, the samples from the Philadelphia suburbs and the rest of the state were combined and adjusted to account for the oversample of the Philadelphia suburbs.
Fourth, the initial likely electorate weight was adjusted to incorporate self-reported vote intention. The final probability that a registrant would vote in the 2024 election was four-fifths based on their ex ante modeled turnout score and one-fifth based on their self-reported intention, based on prior Times/Siena polls, including a penalty to account for the tendency of survey respondents to turn out at higher rates than nonrespondents. The final likely electorate weight was equal to the modeled electorate rake weight, multiplied by the final turnout probability and divided by the ex ante modeled turnout probability.
Finally, the six state samples were balanced to each represent one-sixth of the sum of the weights.
The sample of respondents who completed all questions in the survey was weighted identically, as well as to the result for the general election horse race question (including leaners) on the full sample.
The margin of error accounts for the survey’s design effect, a measure of the loss of statistical power due to survey design and weighting. The design effect for the full sample is 1.33 for registered voters and 1.5 for the likely electorate. The design effect for the sample of completed interviews is 1.38 for registered voters and 1.53 for the likely electorate.
Historically, The Times/Siena Poll’s error at the 95th percentile has been plus or minus 5.1 percentage points in surveys taken over the final three weeks before an election. Real-world error includes sources of error beyond sampling error, such as nonresponse bias, coverage error, late shifts among undecided voters and error in estimating the composition of the electorate.
News
For those who help the poor, 2025 goes down as a year of chaos
Paul B. Miller shops at The Market food pantry in Logan, Ohio on Dec. 9. Food aid was just one of many services offered here that faced disruption in 2025.
Rich-Joseph Facun for NPR
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Rich-Joseph Facun for NPR
LOGAN, Ohio – Before dawn, in a cold, blustery drizzle, a line forms outside a small, squat building on an open stretch of road on the outskirts of town.
“My heater quit working in my car,” Scott Skinner says good-naturedly to the next man in line. “Man, what kinda luck am I having.”
The building is called “The Market” because it has a food pantry, but Skinner and the others are here to sign up for heating assistance. He’s been calling for a month to get an appointment with no luck, so he showed up an hour ago to snag a walk-in slot.
The demand for help is more acute than usual because heating aid was suspended during the recent government shutdown. At the same time, SNAP food benefits were suspended for weeks, and some food pantry shoppers are still playing catch up.
One of those people is Lisa Murphy. She’s 61, disabled and relies on Social Security, and says it’s important to have “places like this that really help us.”
“I still owe my gas bill. I owe $298,” Murphy says. “It’s hard to buy food and pay my bills, too.”
Lisa Murphy grocery shops at The Market food pantry in Logan, Ohio. She’s still behind on bills after SNAP food benefits were paused for two weeks during the recent federal shutdown.
Rich-Joseph Facun for NPR
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Rich-Joseph Facun for NPR
A detail from Miller’s grocery cart; signs tell clients the number of items that can be taken.
Rich-Joseph Facun for NPR
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Rich-Joseph Facun for NPR
But even as need grows with rising costs and unemployment, local anti-poverty groups like the one that runs The Market say their work has been threatened as never before amid the Trump administration’s funding cuts, pauses and reversals targeting a long list of safety-net programs. The shutdown was only the latest disruption that forced them to scramble to keep operating.
And, they say, the year of chaos has left deep uncertainty over which programs may be hit next.
‘Emergency response mode’
The Market in Logan, Ohio, is part of Hocking Athens Perry Community Action – HAPCAP for short – one of a thousand such agencies across the country that have been around since the 1960s. They connect some 15 million people with housing, health care, food aid and much more.
At HAPCAP, services include Meals on Wheels, Head Start, a public bus system, employment help, and a food bank that serves 10 counties across southeast Appalachian Ohio.
It’s an impressive range, but this year that’s also made it a big target for federal funding cuts.
“Eighty percent of our funding comes from federal grants,” says executive director Kelly Hatas. The “worst day” of her career was back in January, when the Trump administration ordered a federal funding freeze, saying it wanted to shift priorities and promote efficiency.
“When we got that news we were in immediate emergency response mode, like, what are we going to do?” she says.
Kelly Hatas, executive director of Hocking Athens Perry Community Action (HAPCAP), talks with the child of a couple who are shopping at the food pantry. Hatas says the nonprofit has had to scramble all year as various safety-net programs were hit with federal funding cuts or pauses.
Rich-Joseph Facun for NPR/www.facun.com
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Rich-Joseph Facun for NPR/www.facun.com
The most urgent threat was to six Head Start centers.
“Our Head Start director was on a call with all of her center coordinators telling them we’re laying everyone off tomorrow,” Hatas recalls. “And then there was some secondary information that was like, ‘Just kidding … Head Start is excluded.’”
That whiplash shook people’s trust. And the hits kept coming.
In March, the administration canceled or paused a billion dollars that helped food banks. In May, President Trump’s budget called for zeroing out Head Start and heating assistance, along with major cuts to other safety-net programs like rental aid. He also proposed eliminating the $770 million dollar Community Services Block Grant that directly supports these anti-poverty groups, including it in a list of “woke programs.”
Congress eventually funded many of those programs, but the Office of Management and Budget took months to get out the block grant money.
“OMB just decided not to spend it, totally usurping congressional authority,” says David Bradley, who advocates for these local groups with the National Community Action Foundation.
He says they’ve long had strong bipartisan support.
“So we’ve had two major fights with the administration,” he says. “We won them because Republicans helped.”
East Main Street in Logan, a small town in southeast Appalachian Ohio.
Rich-Joseph Facun for NPR
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Rich-Joseph Facun for NPR
In a statement, an OMB spokesperson said these anti-poverty programs fund “radically partisan activities, like teaching toddlers to be antiracist and ‘LGBTQIA+ welcoming.’” It also criticized a program that combined affordable housing with clean energy “in the pursuit of both economic and environmental justice.”
“President Trump ran on fiscal responsibility and ending wasteful DEI spending in government,” the statement says.“The American taxpayer should not be made to fund critical race theory.”
Health and Human Services spokesman Andrew Nixon said the agency “administers CSBG consistent with the funding levels Congress provides to support services for low-income families.”
Funding chaos and uncertainty
In Ohio, Hatas says the state has shifted money to help address federal funding crises as they’ve popped up to keep programs going. But the biggest challenge remains uncertainty.
“The panic and the just day-to-day not knowing what’s going to happen, is just really difficult,” she says.
Because of that, HAPCAP has scaled back some plans, including for a new Head Start facility and a much-needed homeless shelter. It’s also had to pull out of food distribution at schools because of a lack of staff. Some employees are leaving, worried about losing their jobs. Others have been laid off or had their hours trimmed.
“It cut my paychecks completely in half,” says Kelsey Sexton, who manages the front desk but was shifted to part-time in the fall. “We have a mortgage, a car payment. With Christmas coming, my husband was like, what are we going to do?”
She was bumped back up to full-time – but so far only temporarily – after the shutdown pause in SNAP payments brought a surge of people to the food pantry.
Losing a job can be extra tough in rural communities.
“We don’t really have jobs growing on trees … and so there’s nowhere for these folks to go,” says Megan Riddlebarger, who heads the Corporation for Ohio Appalachian Development (COAD) half an hour away in Athens.
Kelsey Sexton (left) had her hours as a desk clerk at HAPCAP cut in half. Megan Riddlebarger (right) heads the Corporation for Ohio Appalachian Development and says anti-poverty agencies are important for local economies in this rural region.
Rich-Joseph Facun for NPR
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Rich-Joseph Facun for NPR
She oversees federal funding for 17 antipoverty groups across the eastern part of the state, and says they’re important for rural economies.
“These aren’t just, like, people volunteering for fun,” she says. “These are some of the biggest businesses in town, buying most of the products that are bought and sold in the town.”
Helping people stay warm and at home
Down a flight of stairs from Riddlebarger’s office, five burly men at long desks take notes as Dave Freeman goes over how to properly install a water heater vent. It’s a refresher training class for inspectors, part of a weatherization assistance program the White House also wanted to end.
Freeman says many older homes in the area are full of cracks and crevices with almost no insulation.
“That house that you walk in (that) has the blanket at the stairway, so ‘Oh, honey, I haven’t been upstairs, it’s so cold up there,’” he says.
Weatherizing homes not only lets people live comfortably, it also saves them money.
“Say their electric bill goes down or gas bill goes down, they might be able to buy a pizza on a Saturday night,” Freeman says. “And that’s a big thing.”
Adam Murdock (left) attends attends a training class for weatherization inspectors at the Corporation for Ohio Appalachian Development.
Rich-Joseph Facun for NPR
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Rich-Joseph Facun for NPR
But COAD’s funding for weatherization was delayed months, which jeopardized staffing. “You can get paid to do similar work in the private sector, and so retaining that staff is already a challenge,” says Riddlebarger.
Most of the agencies she oversees were able to cover the gap until money finally came through in November. But she says it means squeezing what’s supposed to be a year-long program into about half that time “with the same expectations for performance reporting.”
Diana Eads’ volunteer job with COAD – which includes a small stipend – was also at risk earlier this year, when the Trump administration gutted AmeriCorps grants with little explanation. As part of the AmeriCorps Seniors companion program Eads visits and helps out low-income people.
“My companions have been elderly, they’re not able to get out,” she says. “They’re just one-step away from nursing home care.”
Diana Eads, 74, visits with elderly people as part of the AmeriCorps seniors program. When a funding cut threatened her small stipend for gas money, she told an 88-year-old woman who lives far away that she would keep visiting no matter what.
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Rich-Joseph Facun for NPR
If they were to land in a nursing home or assisted living, that could cost thousands of dollars a month in Medicaid spending. But Eads helps keep them at home for just $4 dollars an hour, to help cover gas or other small bills.
“Being rural, my one companion, it’s 56 miles roundtrip,” she says.
Riddlebarger managed to secure local philanthropic funding to keep operating, and after a legal challenge AmeriCorps federal funding was restored.
Through it all Eads reassured her companion, an 88-year old woman she’d been visiting for five years.
“I told her no matter what happened, I would not stop visiting,” Eads says. “That was important.”
A grim 2026 outlook
After a year struggling to keep serving those most in need, advocates say they don’t see much relief in site. Republicans in Congress passed major cuts to Medicaid and SNAP food aid and those will start to take hold.
The Trump administration also is considering dramatic limits to rental assistance and has laid out major cuts to long-term housing for people leaving homelessness, a move that faces a legal challenge.
On top of that, the administration’s mass firings and buyouts hit hard in offices that administer various safety-net programs.
The Market runs a food pantry and helps connect people with other services. In December, people seeking an appointment for heating assistance often line up outside before dawn.
Rich-Joseph Facun for NPR
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Rich-Joseph Facun for NPR
Riddlebarger says most anti-poverty funding already falls far short of the need, and making it even harder to help people is exhausting.
“Not knowing which of our many services we are going to be able to keep operating makes us waste valuable capacity trying to plug holes that shouldn’t be holes,” she says. “We’re just breaking the wheel and reinventing it at a great cost to all parties.”
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‘Bomb cyclone’ forecasted to bring heavy snow, blizzard conditions and dangerous travel
People walk through the snow in Brooklyn after an overnight storm on Saturday in New York City.
Spencer Platt/Getty Images
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Spencer Platt/Getty Images
An intense cyclone system is fueling a mix of severe weather, including a winter storm that will impact upper parts of the United States.
Heavy snow, blizzards, extreme cold and damaging winds are likely to create hazardous conditions stretching from Montana east to Maine, and Texas north to Pennsylvania, according to the National Weather Service (NWS).
More than eight million people were under winter storm warnings from the NWS on Sunday afternoon. Nearly two million people were under blizzard warnings. Meteorologists warn that after winter weather Friday and Saturday, an arctic front clashing with warm air could rapidly intensify into a ‘bomb cyclone’ over the Midwest and Great Lakes through Monday. A ‘bomb cyclone’ or bombogenesis is a rapidly deepening area of low pressure that creates harsh weather conditions.

“We are anticipating some pretty big snows over the next 24 hours, especially across east central Minnesota to northern Wisconsin to the Upper Peninsula of Michigan. A lot of those places will have 6-12 inches,” NWS Lead Forecaster Bob Oravec told NPR on Sunday.
Blizzard conditions will cause near zero visibility and possible power outages Sunday night though Monday evening in some locations in Michigan’s Upper Peninsula, according to the NWS Marquette. A foot of snow or more is possible in areas along Lake Superior with 40 to 65 mile per hour winds, according to forecasts.
Marquette Mayor Paul Schloegel told NPR on Sunday the Marquette Board of Light & Power is prepared to handle any loss of electricity. He said in an email the main priority is keeping people safe.
“We tend to heed the advice of our weather forecasters and prepare to hunker down as needed,” Schloegel wrote. “As far as taking care of the snow, our extremely dedicated public works and MDOT crews do a great job taking care of our residents, they are true professionals. Roads are usually back to normal within 24 [hours].”
Schloegel said Marquette residents appreciate a good blizzard while taking precautions.
“We choose to live here for our love of [four] full seasons and appreciate the effect the greatest lake, Lake Superior, has on our climate,” he said.
Minnesota is also bracing for major impacts. Blizzard and winter storm warnings and advisories are in place for most of the state. As much as 10 inches of snow could fall in the Twin Cities and potentially life-threatening travel conditions are likely through early Monday morning, according to the NWS.

The ‘bomb cyclone’ is also sending cold temperatures below freezing.
Residents of Havre, Mont., about 45 miles south of the Canadian border, could feel wind chill values as low as 15 degrees below zero late Sunday. The actual temperature is forecast to fall to 2 degrees below zero.
Farther south in Dallas, Texas, temperatures are expected to drop dramatically from the 80s on Sunday to highs in the 40s on Monday, according to the NWS.
In the Northeast, freezing rain could cause travel problems, including icing in northern New England and northern New York state, late Sunday into Monday, according to Oravec.
When colder air moves into New York City early this week, remaining snow on the ground from the weekend storm will freeze and create further hazardous travel conditions, Oravec said.
News
Disability rights advocate Bob Kafka dead at 79
Bob Kafka, a disabled Vietnam veteran, talks with an Austin Police Officer as he and others try to enter a hotel property.
Ilana Panich-Linsman/Getty Images
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Ilana Panich-Linsman/Getty Images
Bob Kafka, a renowned disability rights advocate, died at his Austin, Texas, home on Friday. He was 79 years old.
Kafka was an organizer with ADAPT (American Disabled for Attendant Programs Today), a group which advocates for policy change to support people with disabilities.
Mark Johnson, co-founder of ADAPT and a longtime friend of Kafka who confirmed his death, told NPR Kafka’s advocacy was as much about changing laws as it was changing lives.
“Maybe it was helping somebody tie their shoes and the next moment, maybe it was helping feed them, or maybe it was raising money through the fun run, or maybe it was negotiating with federal officials,” said Johnson.
Kafka was born in New York City, but spent most of his life in Texas. He was an Army veteran and fought in the Vietnam War.
Since being paralyzed from a 1973 car accident, Kafka, alongside his wife, Stephanie Thomas, prioritized seeking dignity for those with disabilities and helping others adjust to their new lives. Kafka could be seen at disability rights protests sporting a halo of white curls and an unruly beard.
“Very, very rarely do you find people that can, can do what needs to be done and not go around boasting about it,” said Johnson.
He also recalled the selfless nature of the community Kafka fostered, including how Thomas’ first instinct was to ask how he was feeling about losing a friend.
“I’m going, ‘Wait a minute, I’m calling you to ask you how you are,’” Johnson said.
Johnson remembered Kafka as a policy wonk who was as interested in the mechanics of federal bureaucracy as grassroots organizing. He said he hopes his friend will be honored for his work to influence change at all levels.
“If you mention disability to an average crowd, it’s gonna, think of something negative. Bob and others may help people make that shift,” Johnson said.
“They say claiming your identity – your full identity – can be very powerful, very liberating. And I think Bob was one of those people that’s been doing that for 50 years.”
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