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They say with Donald Trump that accusation is confession. Having warned during the 2024 campaign that Joe Biden, then Kamala Harris, would trigger “world war three”, Trump is now offering a perilous test of that proposition. In his statement on Saturday night, Trump pronounced his military strikes on Iran a success. America’s bunker-busting bombs had obliterated Iran’s nuclear capacity, he said. It could take a while to find out whether both Iran and Israel — the prime actors in a show that Trump did not script but in which he is now taking a starring role — will share the US president’s assessment. But Trump is hoping that his awesome display of power will bring the curtain down on the war. That is not his decision to make. 

Whatever happens next, it is worth recalling how Trump got here. Ten days ago, Benjamin Netanyahu torpedoed Trump’s nuclear negotiations with Iran with a series of devastating missile strikes. Israel’s prime minister said that Iran was weaponising its nuclear programme and posed an existential threat. Most others, including the US intelligence community, do not share Netanyahu’s diagnosis. Having his desired deal scuppered by Israel’s move, Trump quickly associated himself with it. He demanded Iran’s unconditional surrender and said that he could take out the regime’s supreme leader, Ali Khamenei, at any point. Iran did not submit to Trump’s demand. His de facto declaration of war on Saturday night was the outcome. 

It also bears stressing that nobody, including Trump, knows what will happen next. It is easy to start a war, especially if you command the most powerful military on Earth. But wars only end when one side gives up. That age-old warning about the fog of war is particularly relevant to today’s Middle East, in which there are often more than two warring parties. The enemy of your enemy can turn out also to be your enemy. Having once been lectured by a younger Netanyahu, Bill Clinton said to an aide, “Who’s the fucking superpower here?” Trump’s brief televised address following the strikes was meant to showcase his command of the situation. In reality, Netanyahu has been dictating events. But even he cannot predict how Iran will respond. 

Netanyahu’s interests are not the same as Trump’s. Israel’s leader has made it clear he wants regime collapse in Iran. Trump wants Iran to surrender. The first would be precipitated by a strong Iranian response that left Trump no choice but to escalate — a prospect he threatened in his address. The second would involve a token Iranian retaliation that enabled Trump to declare mission accomplished. How this unfolds, and who gets to diagnose whether Iran’s actions are token or lethal, is largely out of Trump’s hands. This leaves him as the most powerful military actor in the Middle East but potentially a hollow one. Power is about the ability to shape events. Trump is largely their prisoner. 

Whatever happens, Trump’s bombing of Iran has defined his presidency at home as well as abroad. This is Trump’s war now. Iran’s submission would reverberate to his advantage in many ways; a full-blown war could sink his presidency. Among the ironies, Trump’s Iran strikes are being cheered on by many of the “Never Trumpers” who had been warning so starkly of Trump’s autocratic impulses. They are prepared to risk the power-aggrandising opportunity that war will offer Trump. Another irony is Trump’s Maga allies, such as Steve Bannon, are among the biggest sceptics of this latest, and potentially most dramatic, chapter in the “forever wars” that Trump has vowed to end. 

Only a fool would take Trump at his word, which he serially breaks. But it is safe to say that his ambition of winning the Nobel Peace Prize is unlikely to bear fruit. Without consulting Congress, and in probable contravention of international law, Trump has taken a fateful gamble. Whether he has fully digested this fact or not, he is now committed to seeing this through to the end. Iran and Israel will have at least as big a say as Trump in deciding when and how that happens. 

edward.luce@ft.com

The Los Angeles Dodgers have announced they will commit $1 million towards financial assistance for families of immigrants “impacted by recent events in the region.”

The announcement, made on Friday, did not specify exactly what “recent events” referred to, but it comes amid ongoing federal immigration raids targeting migrants in the area, and calls from the Dodgers’ fanbase for the organization to speak out against them.

“What’s happening in Los Angeles has reverberated among thousands upon thousands of people, and we have heard the calls for us to take a leading role on behalf of those affected,” the Dodgers president and CEO, Stan Kasten, said in a statement.

“We believe that by committing resources and taking action, we will continue to support and uplift the communities of Greater Los Angeles.”

The announcement said the Dodgers would work with the City of Los Angeles, and in the coming days make more announcements with local community and labor organizations that support families with food and mental health services.

Federal immigration enforcement sparked heated protests in Los Angeles this month and ongoing legal challenges over President Trump’s decision to send National Guard troops into the city.

Los Angeles Mayor Karen Bass, who has been sharply critical of the Trump administration’s intervention, was also quoted in the Dodgers statement.

“These last weeks have sent shockwaves of fear rippling through every neighborhood and have had a direct impact on our economy,” she said. “My message to all Angelenos is clear: We will stick together during this time and we will not turn our backs on one another — that’s what makes this the greatest city in the world.”

Action at the stadium

The financial pledge came one day after the Dodgers found themselves in a war of words with immigration authorities.

On Thursday morning, several vehicles were seen parked near the stadium and five people in tactical gear were gathered nearby, according to LAist, which reported that protestors and media then came to the scene.

Police officers stand guard as they close the gate of the main entrance of Dodger Stadium faced with protesters on Thursday.

Etienne Laurent/AFP via Getty Images

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“This morning, ICE agents came to Dodger Stadium and requested permission to access the parking lots,” the Dodgers wrote in a post on X. “They were denied entry to the grounds by the organization.”

Responding on X, the Los Angeles branch of Enforcement and Removal Operations, which operates within ICE, denied the Dodgers’ report.

“False. We were never there,” the agency wrote.

The Department of Homeland Security also posted on X that the activity “had nothing to do with the Dodger.”

“CBP vehicles were in the stadium parking lot very briefly, unrelated to any operation or enforcement,” the department wrote.

Police officers stand guard as they close the gate of the main entrance of Dodger Stadium on Thursday.

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Trump has made clear that he wants ICE to continue targeting Los Angeles, and to put the heat on other cities with majority Democratic leadership.

“ICE Officers are herewith ordered, by notice of this [post], to do all in their power to achieve the very important goal of delivering the single largest Mass Deportation Program in History,” the president posted on Truth Social.

“In order to achieve this, we must expand efforts to detain and deport Illegal Aliens in America’s largest Cities, such as Los Angeles, Chicago, and New York, where Millions upon Millions of Illegal Aliens reside.”

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A British citizen has been arrested for allegedly spying on behalf of Iran near a UK air base in Cyprus, which serves as the RAF’s main hub for Middle East operations.

Cypriot authorities said on Saturday that they had detained a man on “terrorism and espionage” charges.

People in the UK familiar with the arrest did not dispute local Cypriot media reports that the alleged spy was suspected of working for Iran.

He is alleged to have monitored the UK’s Akrotiri base on the eastern Mediterranean island as well as the Cypriot Andreas Papandreou air base, which is sometimes used by the US air force.

The Foreign Commonwealth & Development Office said that the man was British and they were “in contact [with] the authorities in Cyprus regarding the arrest”.

Cypriot officials initially described the suspect as an Azerbaijani. The UK was unable to confirm immediately if he held dual nationality.

After appearing in court in Cyprus on Saturday, the man was detained for eight days on suspicion of espionage.

“Today following a co-ordinated operation by the police headquarters a person was arrested who seems to be related to terrorists acts,” the Cypriot government said.

They added that a regional court had issued a detention order “for criminal acts related, among others, to terrorism and espionage”.

They declined to comment further citing national security reasons.

A Cypriot official said they had been monitoring the individual with allies for the past month. Cypriot media reported the local police operation had been supported by the UK’s overseas intelligence service, MI6, and Israel’s Mossad.

Israeli foreign minister Gideon Sa’ar said on Saturday that a planned attack on Israeli citizens by Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps had been averted due to co-operation between Israeli and Cypriot security services.

“Thanks to the activity of the Cypriot security authorities, in co-operation with Israeli security services, the terror attack was thwarted,” Sa’ar said on X, without elaborating.

The UK Ministry of Defence directed enquiries to the FCDO, which works closely with MI6, as well as assisting British nationals when they are arrested overseas.

It is the UK government’s long-standing policy to neither confirm nor deny claims relating to intelligence matters.

The arrest comes as Israel’s war with Iran enters its eighth day and as the US weighs entering the conflict to destroy Tehran’s nuclear programme.

The UK has moved additional fighter jets and other military assets to the region in what Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer has called a contingency measure. Some of the Typhoon jets were expected to be sent to Cyprus.

On Friday, UK military aircraft were sabotaged at Brize Norton, the RAF’s biggest base, by the Palestine Action activist group, which breached security and sprayed paint into the engines of several planes.

The UK is expected to proscribe Palestine Action as a terrorist organisation next week.

There has been little indication that the UK would join strikes on Iranian territory. Starmer has emphasised de-escalation and diplomacy this week but has also said Iran must not acquire a nuclear weapon.

Starmer hinted last weekend that UK military assets could be used to defend Israel as it trades strikes with Iran. Iran has threatened to strike UK forces in the region if it supports Israel.

RAF jets helped shoot down Iranian projectiles launched against Israel in April last year and assisted with target identification in October, but the UK has not been involved in the latest fighting.

Israel’s ambassador to London said this week they had not requested or discussed help from the UK.

Starmer may also have to weigh whether to allow the US to use the joint UK-US base of Diego Garcia in the Chagos Archipelago if the Trump administration decides to enter the war.

B2 stealth bombers, some of which are positioned on the island, are the only military aircraft capable of delivering the largest ‘bunker-buster’ bombs believed to be capable of penetrating Iran’s underground nuclear site near Fordow.

On Friday UK foreign secretary David Lammy met Iran’s foreign minister Abbas Araghchi and his counterparts from France and Germany.

Lammy said they were trying to offer Iran a diplomatic “off-ramp” but have also warned Tehran that it should hold talks with the US even without a ceasefire with Israel.