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Iowa rarely predicts a winner, but Donald Trump may be the exception

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Iowa rarely predicts a winner, but Donald Trump may be the exception

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There are two ways to interpret Donald Trump’s cruise to victory in Iowa. The first, which I lean towards, is confirmation that the former president owns the Republican Party in a way that no figure has done before. But we have known that for years. It looks as though he has the 2024 nomination wrapped up.

The second interpretation, which cannot be dismissed, is that Iowa is a quirky state that presages nothing. The Midwestern state is routinely bad at predicting what will happen in other primaries. A quick glance at history tells us why: it has only identified the eventual nominee of either party six times in nearly 50 years.

The last time Iowa picked the Republican winner was at the turn of the millennium. For the most recent Republicans, victory in the state’s caucuses has been a better predictor of a career on cable TV. In 2012 it was the former Pennsylvania senator, Rick Santorum, and in 2008 it was the Arkansas governor, Mike Huckabee. Ted Cruz, who won in 2016, remains a US senator — but also graces Fox News frequently.

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Those three names were natural draws for the state’s heavy evangelical vote. They fared far less well the following week in New Hampshire where religion is far less of a factor.

Their example is particularly bad news for Florida governor Ron DeSantis, the only candidate to visit 99 counties, but who finished a distant second-place on Monday with just a fifth of the vote. Not only was he the natural candidate of the state’s so-called values-based voter; he also threw his campaign’s kitchen sink at the state. DeSantis could hardly expect better to do better in New Hampshire. His rapid exit from the field would not be a shock.

It was a less bad night for Nikki Haley because her campaign never bet on winning in Iowa. Her big test will come in New Hampshire, where she has placed most of her chips. If Haley does not pull off at least a strong second to Trump there, her planned breakthrough in South Carolina the following month may turn out to be bathetic.

An interesting test of her expectations is whether she finally removes the proverbial gloves in the next few days and attacks Trump directly; in her speech to supporters on Monday night, she showed signs she was ready to go after America’s 45th president. But If she persists with the weak tea approach, it would be a sign that she is keeping her options open to be Trump’s running mate.

Having been raised in the only immigrant in a South Carolinian town, Haley is tough and capable of bare-knuckled politics. Yet she routinely ducks opportunities to assail Trump’s character. Her refusal in response to a recent question to say that the American civil war was fought over slavery spoke volumes about her fear of offending MAGA Republicans.

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If Trump had any downsides on Monday night, it was the relatively low turnout. With his heavily rural base, and a wind-chill factor of -30C, the absence of enthusiasm may be unsurprising. But it suggests there are limits to the cultish devotion of his fans.

Yet his margin of victory was unprecedented. Here both interpretations arrive at the same answer. Trump won the caucuses by about 30 percentage points. The previous largest margin of victory was George W Bush’s 11 percentage points in 2000. Whether or not Iowa is predictive, Trump still looks set to sweep the table. The only question is whether Haley’s baring of teeth on Monday night is a sign she has finally decided to go for his jugular.

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The Onion has agreed to a new deal to take over Infowars

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The Onion has agreed to a new deal to take over Infowars

In this photo illustration, The Onion website is displayed on a computer screen, showing a satirical story titled Here’s Why I Decided To Buy ‘InfoWars’, on November 14, 2024 in Pasadena, California.

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The satirical website, The Onion, has a new deal to take over Infowars, conspiracy theorist Alex Jones’s far-right media company. If approved by a Texas judge, the deal would take away his Infowars microphone, and allow The Onion to resume its plans to turn the website into a parody of itself.

Families of those killed in the 2012 Sandy Hook Elementary School shooting, who sued Jones for defamation, want the sale to happen. They’re still waiting to collect on the nearly $1.3 billion judgement they won against Jones for spreading lies that they faked the deaths of their children in order to boost support for gun control. That prompted Jones’s followers to harass and threaten the families for years.

The families are also eager to take away Jones’s platform for spewing such conspiracy theories. The deal not only would divorce Jones from his Infowars brand, but it would turn the platform against him by allowing The Onion to mock his kind of conspiracy mongering and advocate for gun control.

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The families “took on Alex Jones to stop him from inflicting the same harm on others” by using “his corrupt business platform to torment and harass them for profit,” said Chris Mattei, one of the attorneys for the families. “When Infowars finally goes dark, the machinery of lies that Jones built will become a force for social good, thanks to the families’ courage and The Onion’s vision, persistence and stewardship.”

A mourner visits the Sandy Hook Permanent Memorial on the 10th anniversary of the school shooting on Dec.14, 2022 in Newtown, Connecticut. Twenty-six people were shot and killed, including 20 first graders and 6 educators, in one of the deadliest elementary school shootings in U.S. history.

A mourner visits the Sandy Hook Permanent Memorial on the 10th anniversary of the school shooting on Dec.14, 2022 in Newtown, Connecticut. Twenty-six people were shot and killed, including 20 first graders and 6 educators, in one of the deadliest elementary school shootings in U.S. history.

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For its part The Onion called it a “significant step in an effort to transform one of the internet’s more notorious misinformation platforms into a new comedy network for satire.” The company says it could announce its new rollout of Infowars in a matter of weeks if the judge approves the deal.

“Eight years, almost to the day, after the Sandy Hook parents first filed suit against Alex Jones, they’ll finally get some justice, and even some money,” said Ben Collins, CEO of The Onion. “This is a chance to make something genuinely new out of a very broken piece of media history.”

On its website Monday, The Onion posted a satirical message from the fictional CEO of its parent company, Global Tetrahedron, “Bryce P. Tetraeder,” stating a “dream is finally coming true.”

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Jones’s posted on X Monday that “The Onion Has Fraudulently Claimed AGAIN That It Owns Infowars!!!” adding that “The Democrat Party Disinformation Publication Is Publicly Bragging About Its Plan To Silence Alex Jones’ Infowars And Then Steal & Misrepresent His Identity!”

On a podcast in March, Jones alluded to the impending demise of Infowars, saying, “We’re getting shut down. We beat so many attacks. But finally, we’re shutting down like the middle of next month,” before insisting, “We’re going to be fine.”

Jones suggested Monday he would appeal any court decision to approve the leasing deal. And even if he loses control of Infowars, Jones could continue to broadcast from another studio, under another name.

Jones’s attorneys did not respond to a request for comment.

More than a year ago, a federal bankruptcy judge rejected The Onion’s first attempt to buy Infowars through a bankruptcy auction, saying the process was flawed. Since then, the bankruptcy court clarified that because Infowars’ parent company, Free Speech Systems, is not itself in bankruptcy, its property should be handled instead by a Texas state receiver. That cleared the way for the new pending deal to lease Infowars to The Onion, with the hope that a future sale could be approved.

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In papers filed in state court, the Texas receiver said he “determined that licensing the Intellectual Property is in the best interest of the receivership estate.”

The deal calls for The Onion to pay $81,000 a month to license the Infowars.com domain and brand name, which the receiver says will “cover carrying costs to preserve and protect the assets of the receivership estate” until an appeal filed by Jones is decided and the path is cleared for a sale.

Jones’s personal bankruptcy case is proceeding in federal bankruptcy court, where a trustee continues to sell off Jones’s personal property, including cars, homes, watches and guns, with proceeds intended for the families.

A memorial to massacre victims stands near the former site of Sandy Hook Elementary on Dec. 14, 2013 in Newtown, Connecticut, one year after  Adam Lanza shot and killed 20 first graders and six adults at the school.

A memorial to massacre victims stands near the former site of Sandy Hook Elementary on Dec. 14, 2013 in Newtown, Connecticut, one year after Adam Lanza shot and killed 20 first graders and six adults at the school.

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Tehran says ‘no plans’ for new talks after US seizes Iranian cargo ship

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Tehran says ‘no plans’ for new talks after US seizes Iranian cargo ship

US negotiators to head to Pakistan and Iranian cargo ship seized – a recappublished at 00:37 BST 20 April

Image source, Reuters
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Tankers in the Strait of Hormuz on Saturday

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Here’s a recap of the latest developments.

US negotiators will head to Pakistan on Monday with the intention of holding further talks on ending the war, Trump says – but Iranian state media cites unnamed officials as saying Tehran has “no plans for now to participate”.

The prospect of further high-level negotiations – a White House official says Vice-President JD Vance will attend – comes amid reports of fresh attacks on commercial vessels.

Trump says the navy intercepted and took “custody” of an Iranian tanker attempting to pass through the US blockade, “blowing a hole” in the ship’s engine room in the process.

Earlier, in the same post announcing his representatives would travel for more talks, Trump renewed his threat to destroy Iranian energy sites and bridges if no deal is reached.

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Reports in Iranian media over the weekend suggest Iran is continuing to work on plans to potentially apply a toll to ships passing through the strait – although it’s unclear if such a move will be implemented.

Iranian state TV cites unnamed officials as saying that “continuation of the so-called naval blockade, violation of the ceasefire and threatening US rhetoric” are slowing progress in reaching an agreement.

Trump also accused Iran of violating the ceasefire, saying more commercial ships have been attacked by Iran in the Strait of Hormuz.

A UK maritime agency reported two commercial ships came under fire in the strait on Saturday.

Iran’s foreign minister had said on Friday that the strait would be opened – which was shortly followed by Trump saying the US naval blockade of Iranian ports would remain in place until a deal is reached. Iran has since said the strait is closed again.

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Video: 8 Children Killed in Louisiana Shooting, Police Say

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Video: 8 Children Killed in Louisiana Shooting, Police Say

new video loaded: 8 Children Killed in Louisiana Shooting, Police Say

A gunman shot 10 people, killing eight children, in a domestic violence shooting at multiple locations in Shreveport, La., the police said. The victims ranged in age from 1 to 14. The gunman was later fatally shot by officers.

By Christina Kelso

April 19, 2026

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