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Iowa rarely predicts a winner, but Donald Trump may be the exception

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Iowa rarely predicts a winner, but Donald Trump may be the exception

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There are two ways to interpret Donald Trump’s cruise to victory in Iowa. The first, which I lean towards, is confirmation that the former president owns the Republican Party in a way that no figure has done before. But we have known that for years. It looks as though he has the 2024 nomination wrapped up.

The second interpretation, which cannot be dismissed, is that Iowa is a quirky state that presages nothing. The Midwestern state is routinely bad at predicting what will happen in other primaries. A quick glance at history tells us why: it has only identified the eventual nominee of either party six times in nearly 50 years.

The last time Iowa picked the Republican winner was at the turn of the millennium. For the most recent Republicans, victory in the state’s caucuses has been a better predictor of a career on cable TV. In 2012 it was the former Pennsylvania senator, Rick Santorum, and in 2008 it was the Arkansas governor, Mike Huckabee. Ted Cruz, who won in 2016, remains a US senator — but also graces Fox News frequently.

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Those three names were natural draws for the state’s heavy evangelical vote. They fared far less well the following week in New Hampshire where religion is far less of a factor.

Their example is particularly bad news for Florida governor Ron DeSantis, the only candidate to visit 99 counties, but who finished a distant second-place on Monday with just a fifth of the vote. Not only was he the natural candidate of the state’s so-called values-based voter; he also threw his campaign’s kitchen sink at the state. DeSantis could hardly expect better to do better in New Hampshire. His rapid exit from the field would not be a shock.

It was a less bad night for Nikki Haley because her campaign never bet on winning in Iowa. Her big test will come in New Hampshire, where she has placed most of her chips. If Haley does not pull off at least a strong second to Trump there, her planned breakthrough in South Carolina the following month may turn out to be bathetic.

An interesting test of her expectations is whether she finally removes the proverbial gloves in the next few days and attacks Trump directly; in her speech to supporters on Monday night, she showed signs she was ready to go after America’s 45th president. But If she persists with the weak tea approach, it would be a sign that she is keeping her options open to be Trump’s running mate.

Having been raised in the only immigrant in a South Carolinian town, Haley is tough and capable of bare-knuckled politics. Yet she routinely ducks opportunities to assail Trump’s character. Her refusal in response to a recent question to say that the American civil war was fought over slavery spoke volumes about her fear of offending MAGA Republicans.

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If Trump had any downsides on Monday night, it was the relatively low turnout. With his heavily rural base, and a wind-chill factor of -30C, the absence of enthusiasm may be unsurprising. But it suggests there are limits to the cultish devotion of his fans.

Yet his margin of victory was unprecedented. Here both interpretations arrive at the same answer. Trump won the caucuses by about 30 percentage points. The previous largest margin of victory was George W Bush’s 11 percentage points in 2000. Whether or not Iowa is predictive, Trump still looks set to sweep the table. The only question is whether Haley’s baring of teeth on Monday night is a sign she has finally decided to go for his jugular.

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Video: Americans Exposed to Hantavirus on Cruise Ship Arrive in United States

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Video: Americans Exposed to Hantavirus on Cruise Ship Arrive in United States

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Americans Exposed to Hantavirus on Cruise Ship Arrive in United States

Eighteen passengers who were aboard the MV Hondius, a cruise ship with a deadly hantavirus outbreak, landed in Omaha on a U.S. government medical flight. The passengers were being monitored at medical facilities in Nebraska and Georgia.

We’re working diligently to ensure no one leaves the security in an unsecured way at an inappropriate time. No one who poses a risk to public health is walking out the front door of the streets of Omaha or beyond.

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Eighteen passengers who were aboard the MV Hondius, a cruise ship with a deadly hantavirus outbreak, landed in Omaha on a U.S. government medical flight. The passengers were being monitored at medical facilities in Nebraska and Georgia.

By Axel Boada

May 11, 2026

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White House Correspondents’ Dinner shooting suspect pleads not guilty in federal court

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White House Correspondents’ Dinner shooting suspect pleads not guilty in federal court

The man charged with attempting to assassinate President Donald Trump at the White House Correspondents’ Association dinner last month pleaded not guilty at a Monday arraignment in federal court.

Cole Tomas Allen, 31, wearing an orange shirt and trousers, was handcuffed and shackled as he was brought into the courtroom in Washington, D.C., federal court. His handcuffs were attached to a chain around his waist, which clanked as he was led to the defense table.

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Speaking on behalf of Allen, federal public defender Tezira Abe said her client “pleads not guilty to all four counts as charged,” including attempting to assassinate the president of the United States, in connection with the April 25 incident at the Washington Hilton hotel.

Assistant U.S. Attorney Charles Jones advised the court that they plan to start producing their first tranche of discovery to the defense by the end of the week.

Officials said Allen, a California teacher and engineer, was armed with multiple guns, as well as knives, when he sprinted through a security checkpoint near the event where Trump and other White House officials had gathered with journalists.

He was arrested after an exchange of gunfire with a U.S. Secret Service officer who fired at him multiple times, a criminal complaint said. Allen was not shot during the exchange. The officer, who was wearing a ballistic vest, was shot once in the chest, treated at a hospital and released.

Trump and top members of his Cabinet and Congress were quickly evacuated from the room as others ducked under tables.

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Allen was initially charged with attempting to assassinate the president, transportation of a firearm and ammunition through interstate commerce with intent to commit a felony, and discharge of a firearm during a crime of violence. On Tuesday, a federal grand jury indicted him on a new charge in the shooting of a Secret Service agent.

Moments before the attack, Allen had sent his family members a note apologizing and criticizing Trump without mentioning the president by name, according to a transcript of some of his writings provided to NBC News by a senior administration official. Allen also wrote that “administration officials (not including Mr. Patel)” were “targets.”

He also appeared to have taken a selfie in his hotel room. Prosecutors said Allen, who was dressed in a black button-down shirt and black pants, was “wearing a small leather bag consistent in appearance with the ammunition-filled bag later recovered from his person,” as well as a shoulder holster, a sheathed knife, pliers and wire cutters.

Officials have said they believe Allen had traveled by train from California to Washington, D.C., before checking into the hotel.

Allen’s sister, Avriana Allen, told law enforcement that her brother would make radical comments and constantly referenced a plan to fix the world, but said their parents were unaware that he had firearms in the home and that he would regularly train at shooting ranges.

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Records show that he had purchased a Maverick 12-gauge shotgun in August 2025 and an Armscor Precision .38 semiautomatic pistol in October 2023.

After his arrest, Allen told the FBI that he did not expect to survive the incident, according to Assistant U.S. Attorney Jocelyn Ballantine. He was briefly placed on suicide watch at the Washington, D.C., jail, where he’s being held.

Allen is expected to appear in court for a June 29 hearing.

At Monday’s arraignment, his legal team said they plan on asking for the “entire office” of the U.S. attorney for the District of Columbia to be recused because of U.S. Attorney Jeanine Pirro’s apparent involvement in the case in a “supervisory role.” Federal public defender Eugene Ohm said some of the evidence they receive from the government will further inform that decision.

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Maps: Earthquakes Shake Southern California

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Maps: Earthquakes Shake Southern California

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Shake intensity

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Pop. density

Note: Map shows the area with a shake intensity of 3 or greater, which U.S.G.S. defines as “weak,” though the earthquake may be felt outside the areas shown.  All times on the map are Pacific time. The New York Times

A cluster of earthquakes have struck near the U.S.-Mexico border, including ones with a 4.5 and 4.7 magnitude, according to the United States Geological Survey.

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As seismologists review available data, they may revise the earthquake’s reported magnitude. Additional information collected about the earthquake may also prompt U.S.G.S. scientists to update the shake-severity map.

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Aftershocks detected

Subsequent quakes have been reported in the same area. Such temblors are typically aftershocks caused by minor adjustments along the portion of a fault that slipped at the time of the initial earthquake.

Quakes and aftershocks within 100 miles

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Aftershocks can occur days, weeks or even years after the first earthquake. These events can be of equal or larger magnitude to the initial earthquake, and they can continue to affect already damaged locations.

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When quakes and aftershocks occurred

 All times are Pacific time. The New York Times

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Sources: United States Geological Survey (epicenter, aftershocks, shake intensity); LandScan via Oak Ridge National Laboratory (population density) | Notes: Shaking categories are based on the Modified Mercalli Intensity scale. When aftershock data is available, the corresponding maps and charts include earthquakes within 100 miles and seven days of the initial quake. All times above are Pacific time. Shake data is as of Saturday, May 9 at 11:55 p.m. Eastern. Aftershocks data is as of Sunday, May 10 at 11:54 p.m. Eastern.

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