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The US Federal Reserve needs to take a gradual approach to lowering borrowing costs, one of its top officials has said, as the world’s leading central bankers prepare to gather at an annual meeting in Wyoming this week.

Mary Daly, president of the San Francisco Fed, told the Financial Times that recent economic data have given her “more confidence” that inflation is under control. It is time to consider adjusting borrowing costs from their current range of 5.25 per cent to 5.5 per cent, she said.

Her call for a “prudent” approach pushed back on economists’ concerns that the world’s largest economy is heading for a sharp slowdown that warrants rapid cuts in interest rates.

The speed with which US rates will ease from their 23-year high will be a central question on the lips of policymakers when they gather later this week at the Kansas City Fed’s annual retreat in Jackson Hole, Wyoming.

Fed chair Jay Powell’s speech there on Friday will be closely scrutinised by investors keen to hear how he plans to pull off a soft landing, completing the fight against inflation without crashing the economy.

Daly, who votes on the Federal Open Market Committee, played down the need for a dramatic response to signs of a weakening labour market, saying the US economy was showing little evidence of heading for a deep downturn. The economy was “not in an urgent place”, she said.

“Gradualism is not weak, it’s not slow, it’s not behind, it’s just prudent,” she said, adding the that labour market — while slowing — was “not weak”.

Investors are betting on a rate cut at next month’s Fed meeting, in what would be the first drop in interest rates in four years. Markets are pricing in about a 70 per cent chance of a quarter-point cut, while a minority of investors expect a half-point move.

Markets expect US interest rates to end 2024 a full percentage point below their current level, implying one extra-large cut in the final three meetings of the year.

The Bank of England, European Central Bank and Bank of Canada have already lowered borrowing costs, but relatively high US inflation readings at the start of this year forced the Fed to wait.

Consumer price figures last week showed inflation fell to 2.9 per cent in the year to July, a three-year low. The Fed’s preferred gauge of underlying price pressures, the price index on core personal consumption expenditures, rose at an annual rate of 2.6 per cent in June. Headline PCE inflation, on which the 2 per cent target is based, was 2.5 per cent in June.

“After the first quarter of this year, inflation has just been making gradual progress towards 2 per cent,” Daly said, speaking on Thursday. “We are not there yet, but it’s clearly giving me more confidence that we are on our way to price stability.”

With inflation in retreat and the labour market coming into better balance, the central bank has to “adjust the policy rate to fit the economy we have and the one we expect to have”.

Daly said the Fed wanted to loosen the “restrictiveness” of its policy, while still maintaining some restraint to “fully get the job done” on inflation.

The Fed did not “want to overtighten into a slowing economy”, she said. She later added that failing to adapt policy to progress on inflation and lower growth was a “recipe for getting the result we don’t want, which is price stability and an unstable and faltering labour market”.

Her remarks chime with those of Atlanta Fed president Raphael Bostic, who recently told the FT that waiting too long to lower interest rates “does bring risk”.

July’s weak jobs report raised concerns over the health of the US economy and helped trigger a global sell-off in equities that sparked calls for emergency rate cuts. But this week’s surprisingly strong retail sales report tempered fears of a US recession.

Daly said businesses were generally not resorting to lay-offs. Instead they were cutting discretionary spending to adapt to what was no longer a “frothy world” of “unbridled growth”.

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The writer is EU commissioner for energy

As most Europeans continue to enjoy the warm summer weather, the cold winter months ahead might seem like a distant thought. Yet, next winter is likely to test the resilience of the Ukrainian people in a way not seen on our continent since the second world war. Following its full-scale invasion in February 2022,  Russia has targeted Ukraine’s energy infrastructure with massive air strikes, captured energy installations, such as the nuclear power plant in Zaporizhzhia, and destroyed electricity transmission lines.

Over the past months, attacks on civilian energy infrastructure have escalated in nature and intensity, destroying power generation plants, heating districts, back-up generators and storage sites. The weaponisation of energy in this way is unprecedented in modern conflicts. 

As Ukraine’s energy workers repair the damage and reactivate lines, many installations have been targeted and destroyed again, making reconstruction a Sisyphean effort. To date, Russia has destroyed or captured around 9GW of Ukraine’s electricity production. This is half of the electricity Ukraine needs in winter, and represents the equivalent of the peak electricity consumption of Portugal, a country with more than 10mn inhabitants. 

Ukraine’s deficit in electricity production has forced the government to introduce nationwide rolling blackouts. In some cities households have access to electricity for a few hours a day, greatly disrupting their daily lives.

Warm months hide the worst impact. No electricity means no access to basic services: water pumps and sewage networks will not work and heating will be off. In freezing winter temperatures, some places in Ukraine may simply become unliveable. Elderly people, children and vulnerable parts of the population would suffer the most. Where the electricity load is already at breaking point, some areas may collapse under the weight of extra demand from displaced people. With a slump in economic activity, fiscal revenues will go down, widening Ukraine’s budget deficit and diminishing its ability to sustain the national fight for freedom. The risk of a humanitarian catastrophe is high.

The Ukrainian administration is fighting with courage to tackle this situation. The EU, together with the international community, has been supporting Ukraine in all possible ways with repair and reconstruction of the energy sector. The G7 has provided a focal point for co-ordination. Regular Ukraine reconstruction conferences have brought the issue into focus. The EU has mobilised, in partnership with the energy community, €500mn for assistance in the energy sector. The EU Civil Protection Mechanism has delivered in kind assistance, including over 8,000 generators and over 3,300 transformers. European operators are providing electricity. 

But much more must be done by the international community. To avoid a humanitarian disaster in Ukraine, we need to step up an unprecedented logistical and assistance effort now. 

I call for action in six areas. First. where possible, damaged power and heating generation facilities should be repaired and reactivated. Second, the largest possible number of small-scale decentralised generators, which can become operational quickly, should be transferred to Ukraine. Third, Solar rooftop photovoltaic systems should be deployed as fast as possible to ensure power for hospitals, schools, and public and residential buildings. Decentralised electricity generation is less exposed to Russian attack. Fourth, the maximum volume of electricity that can be exported to Ukraine from elsewhere in Europe should be expanded gradually. Fifth, interconnection capacity at the borders should be expanded. And finally, passive defence of energy infrastructure and air defence around critical installations must be strengthened. A co-ordinated and well-targeted effort can go a long way to narrow the gap. 

Governments and companies can donate to the Ukraine Energy Support Fund, operated by the energy community. This is the fastest and most reliable way to procure energy equipment to Ukraine. The EU Civil Protection Mechanism can deliver spare parts and used equipment that correspond to Ukraine’s needs. Multilateral banks can help de-risking projects, through support for insurance and guarantees. Companies can help train workers in Ukraine or help install material, such as PVs and inverters, on the ground. Citizens can help through crowd-funding. 

I urge everyone who has the ability to help Ukraine before the cold season arrives to do so. The European Commission will help deliver your support. An unprecedented effort of solidarity and generosity is needed today. Ukraine must not be left alone as it prepares for its most difficult winter yet. 

Kamala Harris is set to appear in Chicago next week to formally accept the nomination for president of the Democratic party, less than two months after Joe Biden dropped out of the race. She will appear alongside her running mate, Tim Walz, the governor of Minnesota, at the party’s national convention.

Typically a party formally nominates their candidate at the convention – as the Republicans did for Donald Trump in July – however, Democrats changed the rules to put in place a virtual roll call. Harris and Walz were officially nominated earlier in August.

Here’s what else to know about next week’s Democratic convention.

Where and when is the Democratic national convention?

The Democratic national convention will be held in Chicago from 19 to 22 August.

Chicago previously played host to the convention in 1996, when Bill Clinton was nominated for re-election, and 1968 when Hubert Humphrey was nominated.

Two venues in Chicago will host the convention: the United Center arena for evening programming, and McCormick Place convention center for daytime sessions.

Who is speaking at the convention?

Harris and Walz will both speak at the convention, and Biden is also expected to give an address. The full lineup of speakers has not yet been released (Republicans only released the names of confirmed speakers the day of their July convention).

However, several big names have been reported:

• Monday, 19 August: Biden will speak on the opening night, along with former secretary of state Hillary Clinton.

• Tuesday, 20 August: Former president Barack Obama will give an address on the second night.

• Wednesday, 21 August: Former president Bill Clinton will join Walz on the convention’s third night.

• Thursday, 22 August: Harris will close out the fourth night of the convention.

In 2020, the virtual convention included speeches from Barack and Michelle Obama, Bill and Hillary Clinton, Jill Biden and a host of other elected officials.

How can I watch the convention?

The party will livestream the convention on its Democratic national convention website and on TikTok, Instagram and YouTube.

The Guardian has a team of reporters in Chicago and will be covering the convention in depth, including live blogs each night.

Major news networks are likely to carry prime-time programming. PBS will have live coverage beginning at 8pm each night.

What happens at the Democratic convention?

The primary functions of the convention is to formally nominate the party’s candidate, adopt the party’s platform, unify the party and boost enthusiasm for the ticket.

The convention usually includes a roll call to formally nominate their candidate. However, the rule-making group for the Democratic National Committee established procedures for candidates to contest the primary nomination ahead of the convention.

Harris was confirmed as the party’s nominee after a virtual roll call vote earlier in August – the first time Democrats have used such a process. Harris and Walz will formally accept the nomination at the convention.

The rest of the week will focus on the party’s platform and speeches from notable figures. The party says that more than 5,000 delegates and alternates will be at the convention, with 50,000 total visitors in Chicago for the convention (which includes delegates and the media).

Who else is speaking?

The party has signaled its plans to foreground up-and-coming Democrats in its programming. Likely speakers include the Michigan governor, Gretchen Whitmer, Maryland governor, Wes Moore, and Illinois governor, JB Pritzker, among others.

Meanwhile, many political influencers have been credentialed, including the socialist podcast host Daniel Denvir.

Will there be protests?

Yes. Organizers expect tens of thousands of people to protest outside the Democratic national convention to pressure the party to stop the war in Gaza. Inside the convention, uncommitted delegates plan to push anti-war demands in hopes of winning more allies to the cause and influencing the party platform.

Chicago is home to the country’s largest Palestinian population – with Bridgeview, Illinois, known as Little Palestine. More than 200 groups have joined together for the March on the DNC, with protests planned for the opening and closing nights of the convention.

Protests are not unique to the Democratic convention; during the Republican convention in July, protesters led a demonstration against Trump and his party in downtown Milwaukee.

What’s ahead on the US election calendar?

The next presidential debate is scheduled for 10 September, with both Harris and Trump confirmed.

A debate between JD Vance and Walz has been confirmed for 1 October.