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Bridgewater’s Bob Prince says Fed rate-cutting hopes are ‘off track’

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Bridgewater’s Bob Prince says Fed rate-cutting hopes are ‘off track’

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Persistent inflation and hot US growth have left the Federal Reserve’s rate-cutting hopes “off track”, Bridgewater’s Bob Prince said on Tuesday, adding an influential voice to the growing chorus asking whether US rates will start to fall this year.

“So far, this year is not transpiring the way that the Fed — or interest rate markets — have described. I think it is clear the Fed is off-track now. The question is how far off track,” Prince, the $112.5bn hedge fund’s co-chief investment officer, told the Financial Times.  

His comments came as Atlanta Fed president Raphael Bostic told Yahoo News that if progress on inflation stalls and economic growth remains strong, it is possible the US central bank may not cut interest rates at all this year. Bostic is a voting member of the Federal Open Market Committee.

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Investing giant Vanguard last month said that it no longer expects the Fed to cut interest rates this year, while JPMorgan chief executive Jamie Dimon in his annual shareholder letter this week said government stimulus could mean rates and inflation stay higher than markets were expecting.

Traders in the futures market have cut their expectations of how many rate cuts the Fed will make this year, from six or seven in January to between two and three as inflation data has come in hotter than expected.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics on Wednesday will release consumer price inflation data for March, which could further sway investor expectations. Economists polled by Bloomberg forecast a tick-up in the headline rate to 3.4 per cent, with the core rate dipping to 3.7 per cent.

After raising interest rates to the highest level in 23 years, the Fed indicated at the end of last year that it was done. In their December dot plot — a survey of officials’ expectations for inflation, growth and interest rates — Fed members indicated they saw growth and inflation slowing, and accordingly expected three quarter-point cuts to rates this year. 

Despite stronger than expected inflation figures since then, the Fed’s March dot plot reaffirmed its expectations of three cuts, even as officials raised their outlook for inflation and growth this year. 

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“The Summary of Economic Projections is an if/then statement. If inflation and growth are at certain levels, then interest rates can be lowered. None of the ifs are true right now,” said Prince.  

For this reason, Prince said he saw “no reason to move out of cash into longer-term bonds at the moment”.

Rates on Treasury bills are far higher than those on longer-term Treasuries, he noted, and investors are not being paid much to take on the additional risk of holding longer-dated bonds. Investors betting that interest rates are not coming down anytime soon would have no reason to move out of cash, he said, “because there’s not an appropriate risk premium yet in assets relative to cash”.

The only reason to cut rates at current levels of growth and inflation would be if there was big boost to productivity in the economy — either from a surge in immigration or another big addition to labour force participation — that would allow the US to have non-inflationary growth, said Prince.

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“It’s blood money”: Family of exonerated man in Texas yogurt shop murders speaks out after settlement

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“It’s blood money”: Family of exonerated man in Texas yogurt shop murders speaks out after settlement

The widow and the daughter of Maurice Pierce, one of the four men wrongfully accused in the 1991 Texas yogurt shop murders, have confirmed they signed a multimillion-dollar settlement with the city of Austin.

Kimberli and Marisa Pierce spoke with correspondent Erin Moriarty in a new episode of the podcast “48 Hours: Case by Case.” Moriarty has reported on the yogurt shop murders for over 30 years. 

Maurice Pierce’s widow Kimberli made clear that their priority has never been financial compensation. “It’s blood money for us. He died for this money,” Kimberli Pierce said. “It’s about the reform and the changes that need to happen, not only in Austin, but apparently across the country.”

They also went into great detail about what they believe happened when Maurice Pierce was shot and killed by police in 2010. 

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Maurice Pierce was one of four men, along with Michael Scott, Robert Springsteen and Forrest Welborn, who were wrongfully accused in the murders of four teenage girls in Austin on Dec. 6, 1991. Eliza Thomas, Amy Ayers, and sisters Jennifer and Sarah Harbison were tied up, shot and left inside the yogurt shop as it was set ablaze. 

The four men were exonerated in February after investigators linked another man, Robert Eugene Brashers, to the killings. The city of Austin subsequently offered a $35 million settlement. Because Maurice Pierce died in 2010, his share of $10 million will go to Kimberli and Marisa Pierce.

Eight days after the killings, 16-year-old Maurice Pierce was arrested at a mall, carrying a .22, the same caliber handgun connected to the crime. Kimberli Pierce said police told Maurice Pierce that his gun was the murder weapon. He responded by mentioning his friend Forrest Welborn. Maurice Pierce was then wired up and sent to speak with Welborn, but investigators ultimately determined that Welborn and the others knew nothing about the murders, and no charges were filed at that time.

Marisa Pierce has said there was no evidence when her father was questioned, “only a detective and a narrative, a narrative so completely false. It feels evil.”

From left, Maurice Pierce, Forrest Welborn, Michael Scott and Robert Springsteen were exonerated in February 2026 after investigators linked another man, Robert Eugene Brashers, to the December 1991 killings of four teenage girls in an Austin, Texas, yogurt shop. 

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Nearly eight years later, in 1999, all four men were arrested after Scott and Springsteen confessed to the murders. They later recanted, saying they had been coerced. Springsteen and Scott were tried and convicted, but later those convictions were overturned on constitutional grounds. A subsequent DNA test excluded all four men. Maurice Pierce was never convicted but spent three years in jail before his release in 2003. 

Kimberli Pierce said her husband came home a hardened man. She believes police continued to harass Maurice and their family after his release. In 2010, Maurice Pierce was stopped for a routine traffic stop, fled on foot, and was shot and killed by an Austin police officer who said Pierce had stabbed him with a knife. 

Marisa and Kimberli Pierce told “48 Hours” that they intend to review the circumstances surrounding the night of Maurice Pierce’s death. Marisa Pierce revealed in new, emotional detail that she was on the phone with her father at the time. She believes he panicked and was only trying to get away, not to hurt anyone. She described her father’s last breaths: “And in those last moments, he had just said I’m sorry, I don’t think you’re gonna see me again, and I love you.” 

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“48 Hours” reached out to the Austin Police Department about the Pierces’ allegations of harassment and their questions about Maurice Pierce’s death in 2010. The police department said they had no additional comment.

For the Pierce family, the settlement is a starting point, not an end point. They have put forward seven proposed reforms they hope the city of Austin will approve, including appointing a child advocate whenever a minor is questioned, prohibiting deceptive interrogation tactics, educating juveniles about their rights and establishing accountability measures to address tunnel vision in police investigations.

In a statement shared with “48 Hours,” the Pierces wrote: “Real justice is not only about acknowledging harm after the fact but about creating safeguards that prevent future families from enduring the same pain.”  

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The Maine Town That Actually Wants a Data Center

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This year, Maine nearly became the first state to pass a statewide moratorium on new data centers. But before the law could take effect, supporters of an A.I. data center project in the small town of Jay rallied to fight the ban — and won. So why do residents there want one? We traveled to Jay to find out.

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The Supreme Court says the U.S. can turn away asylum seekers at the border

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The Supreme Court says the U.S. can turn away asylum seekers at the border

The U.S. Supreme Court

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Drew Angerer/AFP via Getty Images

The U.S. Supreme Court on Thursday handed the Trump administration a tool that could make it far more difficult for asylum seekers to enter the United States.

Asylum is a form of legal protection available to people fleeing persecution in their home countries if they meet certain criteria. Under U.S. law, an asylum seeker who “arrives in” the U.S. is entitled to apply for asylum and generally cannot be removed from the country until their asylum application is processed. 

By a 6-3 vote, the high court ruled that federal law allows the government to stop asylum seekers from physically setting foot in the country, effectively keeping them from applying for asylum. 

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The Obama administration was the first to try stemming the flow of asylum seekers that way. But the lower courts blocked the policy on grounds that it violated federal law by denying asylum to people who otherwise would have qualified for it, had they been permitted to literally put one foot over the border.

The Trump administration, however, sought to revive the policy, contending that the lower court’s ruling “deprives the Executive Branch of a critical tool for addressing border surges and preventing overcrowding at ports of entry.” And on Thursday, the Supreme Court agreed.

Writing for the majority, Justice Samuel Alito ruled that because asylum seekers are not in the U.S. when they are turned away at the border, they did not “arrive in” the country. Therefore, he continued, the legal protections for asylum seekers have not kicked in.

Writing for the liberal dissenters, Justice Sonia Sotomayor noted that Border Patrol agents speak with all immigrants at legal entry points and speaking with an agent is effectively the first step in “arriving in” the U.S.

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