Japanese stocks surged in early trade on Tuesday, rebounding from the previous day’s historic 12 per cent collapse.
Amid warnings from traders to expect extreme volatility over the coming hours, the broad Topix index rose 8.3 per cent in the first half-hour of trading as investors began cautious bargain-hunting and the yen stabilised at about ¥145.70 after two weeks on the rise.
Global markets have in recent days fallen amid fears the Federal Reserve has been too slow to respond to signs the US economy was weakening, and might be forced to play catch-up with a series of rapid interest rate cuts.
The global sell-off has been exacerbated by the unwinding of the so-called yen carry trade, in which traders had taken advantage of Japan’s low interest rates to borrow in yen and buy risky assets.
The rise in the Topix on Tuesday, along with an 8.2 per cent resurgence in the narrower, tech-heavy Nikkei 225 Average, came despite heavy overnight falls in US markets including a 3 per cent drop in the S&P 500.
The rally was echoed across other Asian markets, with the South Korean Kospi rising 4.5 per cent in early morning trading. The Taiwanese stock index, which had its worst selloff in history on Monday, recovered 4 per cent.
Atul Goyal, a Japan equities analyst at Jefferies, said that while fear was gripping markets, the fall in certain Japanese stocks on Monday had been “far too extreme”.
On Tuesday, a broad range of stocks in Tokyo soared, led by soy-sauce maker Kikkoman, whose stock was up more than 17 per cent. Carmaker Honda rose over 15 per cent and semiconductor equipment maker Tokyo Electron gained 15 per cent.
Financials, telecoms, industrials and parts of the tech sector were the main focus of buying in Japan on Tuesday after what Nomura strategist Tomochika Kitaoka described as “something akin to a taper tantrum”.
A surprise Bank of Japan interest rate increase last week propelled the yen higher and triggered a three day equities sell-off, culminating in Monday’s dramatic fall. By Monday’s close, the Topix had lost all its gains for the year after hitting an all-time high on July 11.
After Monday’s close in Japan, traders and analysts struggled to explain the extremity of the sell-off, questioning why a hardening debate over the possibility of a US recession and a return of the dollar-yen rate to levels last seen in January had produced one of the country’s worst market collapses.
“There must be some forced or technical selling as the fundamentals did not change by 11-12 per cent in one weekend,” said Kiran Ganesh, multi-asset strategist at UBS. He added that a sharp sell-off presented a buying opportunity, but that the market would have to wait and see where the yen settles.
Others, including CLSA Japan strategist Nicholas Smith, pointed to the exaggerated impact of algorithmic trading programs, which may have specifically responded to the recent sharp upward move in the yen.
“It does look like they are correlated with the yen,” Smith said. “After all the excitement about the prospects of AI, it now looks like AI may have got us into this mess.”
