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Wisconsin and Florida elections provide early warning signs to Trump and Republicans

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Wisconsin and Florida elections provide early warning signs to Trump and Republicans


A trio of elections Tuesday provided early warning signs to Republicans and President Donald Trump at the beginning of an ambitious term, as Democrats rallied against his efforts to slash the federal government and the outsized role being played by billionaire Elon Musk.

In the marquee race for a Wisconsin Supreme Court seat, the conservative judge endorsed by Trump and backed by Musk and his groups to the tune of $21 million lost by a significant margin in a state the president won in November. And while Florida Republicans held two of the most pro-Trump House districts in the country, both candidates also significantly underperformed Trump’s November margins.

The elections — the first major contests since Trump’s return to power — were seen as an early measure of voter sentiment as Trump works with unprecedented speed to dramatically upend the federal government, clashing with the courts and seeking revenge as he tests the bounds of presidential power.

The party that loses the presidency in November typically picks up seats in the next midterm elections, and Tuesday’s results provided hope for Democrats — who have faced a barrage of internal and external criticism about their response to Trump — that they can follow that trend.

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Charlie Kirk, the conservative activist and podcaster whose group worked alongside Musk to boost conservative Brad Schimel in Wisconsin, argued Tuesday’s Supreme Court loss underscored a fundamental challenge for Republicans, particularly in races where Trump is not on the ballot.

“We did a lot in Wisconsin, but we fell short. We must realize and appreciate that we are the LOW PROP party now,” he said, referring to low-propensity voters who don’t regularly cast ballots. “The party has been remade. Special elections and off-cycle elections will continue to be a problem without a change of strategy.”

Major shifts in Wisconsin

Trump won Wisconsin in November by 0.8 percentage points, or fewer than 30,000 votes. In the first major test since he took office, the perennial battleground state shifted significantly to the left.

Sauk County, northwest of the state capital of Madison, is a state bellwether. Trump won it in November by 626 votes. Sauk shifted 16 points in the direction of Judge Susan Crawford, the liberal favorite backed by national Democrats and liberal billionaire donors like George Soros.

In addition to strong turnout in Democratic-heavy areas, Crawford did measurably better in the suburban Milwaukee counties that Republicans rely on to run up their margins statewide.

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Crawford won Kenosha and Racine counties, both of which went for Trump over Democratic nominee Kamala Harris. She was on pace to win by 9 points.

In interviews with more than 20 voters in Waunakee, a politically mixed town north of Madison, several Democrats suggested without prompting that their vote was as much if not more of a repudiation of Trump’s first months in office as it was a decision on the direction of the state high court.

“This is our chance to say no,” said Linda Grassl, a retired OB-GYN registered nurse, after voting at the Waunakee Public Library corridor Tuesday.

Others disliked the richest man in the world playing such a prominent role.

“I don’t like Elon Musk spending money for an election he should have no involvement in,” said Antonio Gray, a 38-year-old Milwaukee security guard. “They should let the voters vote for who they want to vote for instead of inserting themselves like they have.”

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Republicans warn against drawing national conclusions

Former Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker said that part of the challenge for Republicans had been “trying to connect the dots” to turn the state Supreme Court race into one about Trump — a difficult task in a state judicial race.

“If you’re somebody who showed up for Trump because you feel forgotten, you don’t typically show up to vote in” these kinds of elections, he said, imagining voters asking themselves: “What does this have to do with Trump?”

Still, Walker cautioned against reading the tea leaves too closely.

“I’d be a little bit careful about reading too much into what happens nationally,” he said.

Trump had better luck in Florida, where Republican Randy Fine won his special election in the 6th District to replace Rep. Mike Waltz, who stepped down to serve as Trump’s national security adviser. But Fine’s Democratic challenger, Josh Weil, lost by 14 points less than five months after Waltz won the district by 33.

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“This is the functional equivalent of Republicans running a competitive race in the district that is represented by Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez,” said House Democratic Leader Hakeem Jeffries beforehand, invoking a liberal favorite whom Trump often denigrates. “Kamala Harris won that district by 30 points. Do you think a Republican would even be competitive in that district in New York, currently held by Alex? Of course, not.”

Jimmy Patronis, the state’s chief financial officer, fended off a challenge from Democrat Gay Valimont to win the northwest Florida seat vacated by Matt Gaetz but also underperformed Gaetz’s last margin of victory.

The pair of wins gave Republicans a 220-213 margin in the House of Representatives, at a time when concerns about a thin GOP majority led Trump to pull the nomination of New York Rep. Elise Stefanik to be United Nations ambassador.

For voters in both districts, the clear draw was Trump.

Teresa Horton, 72, didn’t know much at all about Tuesday’s election — but said she didn’t need to.

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“I don’t even know these people that are on there,” she said of her ballot. “I just went with my ticket.”

Brenda Ray, 75, a retired nurse, said she didn’t know a lot about Patronis, either, but cast her ballot for him because she believes he’ll “vote with our president.”

“That’s all we’re looking for,” she said.

Both Patronis and Fine were badly outraised by their Democratic challengers. Michael Whatley, chairman of the Republican National Committee, argued that what was a GOP concern before Tuesday night had been a sign of the party’s strength.

“The American people sent a clear message tonight: they want elected officials who will advance President Trump’s America First agenda, and their votes can’t be bought by national Democrats,” he said in a statement.

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Associated Press writers Stephany Matat in Daytona Beach, Florida, Kate Payne in Pensacola, Christine Fernando in Milwaukee, Mark Vancleave in Eau Claire, Wisconsin, Tom Beaumont in Waunakee, Wisconsin, and Matt Brown in Washington in contributed to this report.





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Wisconsin Medicaid director: New federal requirements would affect ‘the whole health care economy’

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Wisconsin Medicaid director: New federal requirements would affect ‘the whole health care economy’


Wisconsin’s Medicaid director says new work requirements in the federal budget bill House Republicans passed last month could extend beyond those who use the Medicaid or FoodShare programs. 

In Wisconsin, almost 1.3 million children and adults are enrolled in Medicaid, and more than 700,000 receive FoodShare. The new legislation expands work requirements for both programs.

As it relates to Medicaid, the new rules would affect about 194,000 Wisconsin adults between the ages of 19 and 64 who do not have dependent children at home and have an income at or below 100 percent the federal poverty level. 

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“The bill creates new work requirements for this population,” Wisconsin Medicaid Director Bill Hanna told WPR’s “Wisconsin Today.” “We estimate that about 63,000 of those currently enrolled are not meeting those requirements today.”

Under those requirements, individuals would need to meet 80 hours of qualifying activities — like working, volunteering or education — per month. The bill would also require individuals to renew their eligibility with documentation every six months, versus the current 12-month requirement. 

Work requirements already exist for adults aged 19 to 54 without dependent children under Wisconsin’s Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program, called FoodShare. But those would expand under the bill to include people up to age 65 and adults who have children over the age of 6.

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“We anticipate that an additional 88,000 people in Wisconsin will now need to submit additional paperwork to the state in order to prove that they are meeting those work requirements,” Hanna said.

Hanna told “Wisconsin Today” about the potential effects of the bill on Medicaid and FoodShare in Wisconsin.

This interview has been edited for length and clarity.

Rob Ferrett: Could this legislation potentially cause people to be kicked off of Medicaid who shouldn’t be?

Bill Hanna: Yeah, I think there’s a lot of unintended consequences. … Between the ages of 19 and 54, approximately 70 percent of those folks are working, when you look at national data. It’s when you get into that older range, between 55 and 64, that that number goes down. I think what you’ll see is a bigger impact on that older population, primarily women. 

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I think the other point is this will certainly increase the uninsured rate in Wisconsin. And what we know is that individuals, if they lose their Medicaid, it doesn’t mean they don’t need health care. It just means they don’t have a way to pay for it now, which will increase uncompensated care for hospitals, doctors and other health care providers. 

Income is important to hospitals, especially as we’ve seen closures in western Wisconsin, and uncompensated care really impacts all of us. We’re all health care consumers, and when hospitals don’t have enough revenue to stay open, they have to pass those costs on to other health care consumers. So while this may appear to just be impacting those 63,000 individuals that we’re talking about, this really has an impact across the whole health care economy.

RF: When I talked to Wisconsin Sen. Ron Johnson, he said states have expanded Medicaid to cover those it’s not meant for — that they’re abusing the system. What do you think of that? 

BH: States are certainly not gaming the system. Everything that states are doing is currently allowable under federal law, and in Wisconsin, we’re really in a different boat than much of the country. Wisconsin has done its own partial expansion, so we’re not getting the 90-10 match like many states are. For our expansion population, the state is putting up 40 percent of that cost. We are also incredibly judicious with how we use provider taxes, always with an end goal of making sure hospitals stay open and stay viable and continue to serve Medicaid individuals. 

On qualified individuals or ineligible folks: That’s just not true. Wisconsin and all states go through a review by the federal government every three years determining whether states are making errors or allowing folks on the program that shouldn’t be on the program. Wisconsin’s most recent review was in 2022, and we had a 99.5 percent accuracy rate. And when you talk about what’s inaccurate, it’s really about dotting i’s and crossing t’s, not that folks are ineligible. So the facts aren’t there. We run a really good program in Wisconsin, and these cuts will hurt not only the individuals that we talked about, but again, our health care economy. 

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RF: What does this mean for the workload at the state with that additional documentation, both for SNAP and for Medicaid? 

BH: It’s additional workload. The bill also shifts other costs from the federal government to states. Today, FoodShare is matched 50-50 in terms of how we administer the program. The bill changes that to where the states now need to pay 75 percent of the cost to run the FoodShare program. Also, right now, the SNAP benefits that go out to individuals are paid 100 percent by the federal government. The bill adds, for the first time, a matching requirement for states at least 5 percent, which is $69 million per year in Wisconsin. And it goes up to as high as 25 percent depending on a state’s error rate. 

So between the workload and system changes we have to make in order to collect all the documentation, the cost shifting and administrative costs and the new matching requirement for FoodShare benefits, we estimate it’ll cost Wisconsin about $119 million [extra] in the first year alone, just to maintain the program that we have today.



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At ‘crisis level’ capacity, Wisconsin Humane Society drops dog adoption fees temporarily

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At ‘crisis level’ capacity, Wisconsin Humane Society drops dog adoption fees temporarily


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  • The shelter is at crisis capacity due to a new walk-in surrender policy implemented June 1, leading to a significant increase in animals.
  • The policy change aims to support families struggling with systemic issues like affordable housing, rising pet costs, and vet shortages.
  • The Humane Society encourages fostering to create space and offers a “no time limit” promise for animals awaiting adoption.

Saying it’s at a “crisis level,” the Wisconsin Humane Society has temporarily lowered its adoption fees for dogs.

The fees, which typically range from $199 to $299, have been reduced to $75 through June 11. The fee for “benchwarmer” dogs, which have been at the Humane Society at least seven days, has been reduced to $25.

In a June 4 social media post, the Humane Society said, “The Wisconsin Humane Society is at crisis level, and we are in desperate need of dog adopters and canine foster parents. We have nearly 400 dogs in care across our organization and are drastically reducing adoption fees in hopes of finding as many great matches as possible.”

The shelter is at crisis capacity because of a policy that started June 1.

“We moved to a walk-in surrender model,” said Angela Speed, the Wisconsin Humane Society’s vice president of marketing & communications. “We used to require appointments, but we recognize that appointments for people needing to surrender their pets were booking months out.”

The policy also was implemented to support families in light of systemic issues that make pet ownership difficult, Speed said, including the lack of affordable housing that allows large dogs, rising costs of pet ownership and a national shortage of veterinarians.

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As a result of the new policy, it’s caring for just under 400 dogs — about 100 more than in June 2024.

The Humane Society’s Milwaukee campus has started moving dogs to its other five Wisconsin locations but is quickly running out of space.

In addition to lowering the adoption fees, the Humane Society is encouraging people to foster dogs.

“We really use our foster network, when our shelters are full, to create more space for incoming animals in the shelter,” Speed said.

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Dogs are fostered for a few reasons, she said. Some dogs need a shelter break for a day, while others need to be fostered for several weeks due to medical conditions or behavior observation.

Fostering is something that doesn’t require a lot of space, and Speed said there’s no such thing as a perfect foster home. There are people who foster while living in smaller apartments or with other animals in their house.

“There’s a type of animal for just about every situation, and of course, you get first dibs if you fall in love,” she said.

The promotion is meant to address the shelter’s current capacity, but Speed said there’s an option that will never be on the table.

“The Wisconsin animals in our adoption program have as long as it takes to find a new home,” Speed said. “We never euthanize for space or time, and that’s a promise we’ve kept for 26 years.”

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4-star OL, 3 other uncommitted recruits slated for official visits to Wisconsin

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4-star OL, 3 other uncommitted recruits slated for official visits to Wisconsin


The Wisconsin Badgers started their summer recruiting swing on a strong note.

Though they’re expecting to bring in a smaller number of uncommitted recruits in the days ahead, they could be key to further filling out the Badgers’ 2026 class

Wisconsin is anticipating to host seven total recruits for the weekend of June 5-8, and four have not announced their verbal commitments to the program.

Each are projected to play positions that Luke Fickell’s staff still hasn’t filled for this recruiting cycle.

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Offensive line coach AJ Blazek has established a good rapport with four-star offensive lineman Kamari Blair (Clarksville Kirkwood, Tennessee) on his official visit last weekend.

This week, he and the staff will host Jalayne Miller, who plays for Goodyear Desert Edge in Arizona.

On3 and ESPN both evaluate Miller as a four-star recruit, with ESPN designating him as the No. 275 player in the nation.

He’s already taken official visits to Stanford and Auburn, and he announced he would take one to USC the weekend of June 20.

Miller will also see Wisconsin’s offensive line commits, Benjamin Novak (Merrillville Andrean, Indiana) and Maddox Cochrane (Richmond Benedictine College Preparatory, Virginia) during his visit this weekend.

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Wisconsin hosted cornerback commit Carsen Eloms (Fishers, Indiana) last weekend.

This weekend, it will be Jamyan Theodore, a three-star recruit who plays for Chattanooga Baylor. The Badgers have targeted Temore in recent years under Fickell.

Theodore took an official visit to Kentucky last weekend and previously listed the Badgers among his top eight schools that includes Tennessee, Virginia, Louisville, Vanderbilt, Duke and Mississippi.

The Badgers announced four of their 2025 scholarship signees as safeties during the December signing period: Jai’mier Scott, Luke Emmerich, Grant Dean and Remington Moss. Scott moved to cornerback in spring practices and impressed.

With the number of younger safeties in assistant Jack Cooper’s group, Wisconsin has the luxury to take around two in this 2026 class.

The Badgers already hosted two recruits on official visits in Messiah Tilson (Rockford Guilford, Illinois) and Nick Reddish (Charlotte Independence) since late April.

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The two expected in town this weekend are three-star recruits Chase Geter (Ashburn Stone Bridge) and Zachary Taylor (Katy Jordan, Texas).

Taylor was supposed to take his official visit last weekend but is now anticipated to be in Madison in the days ahead. He already took official visits to TCU and Texas Tech, and he had previously announced trips to Pitt (June 12-14) and Houston (June 19-21).

Taylor also possesses immense speed, running a 10.52 100-meter dash in April according to Athletic.net.

Geter is being recruited as a field safety, though he has potential position flexibility to move into the slot role in nickel packages.

The defensive back took an official visit to Duke last weekend and had announced an official visit to Penn State for June 13-15.

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Geter has tweeted notable Power Four offers from the following schools: Cincinnati, Kentucky, Indiana, Michigan, Michigan State, Rutgers, Stanford, Syracuse, and Virginia Tech.





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