The 2025 FCS Playoffs continue this weekend. As we do every week, we preview the biggest games of the weekend and make our official predictions.

Let’s take a look at all eight second-round games.

2025 Prediction Record: 150-46
2022-24 Record: 382-122

Illinois State at No. 1 North Dakota State

Kickoff: Noon CT (ESPN+)

In the first matchup this season, North Dakota State scored 15 unanswered points in the fourth quarter in a road win over Illinois State. Now, the Redbirds face the tough task of traveling to Fargo, where NDSU is 38-1 inside the Fargodome in the postseason. The Bison have also won 14 straight games in this series, holding a 16-2 overall record.

Illinois State found some early success with the downhill rushing attack in the last game, but can the Redbirds do it this weekend? Victor Dawson leads the team with 811 rushing yards, while Wenkers Wright has added another 591 yards and five touchdowns. The Bison have held opponents to only 3.0 yards per carry, keeping all but one team under 150 rushing yards this season.

The real strength of this NDSU defense is the secondary, which ranks No. 2 nationally in passing defense (140 YPG Allowed). The Bison have forced 14 interceptions while allowing only five passing touchdowns. It’s a matchup to watch against quarterback Tommy Rittenhouse and two talented wide receivers in Daniel Sobkowicz and Luke Mailander, who have combined for over 1,200 yards and 15 touchdowns.

On the other side, Illinois State is going to have to find a way to slow down quarterback Cole Payton. He’s been playing at an elite level, completing 74% of his passes for 2,618 yards, 15 touchdowns, and only four interceptions. In the first game, Payton’s legs really hurt the Redbirds in key moments. Nobody is better at making something out of chaos than Payton, who has rushed for 791 yards and 13 touchdowns.

The Redbirds made this a very competitive game earlier this season, but I don’t love the matchup here. Illinois State has been prone to giving up explosive plays, which is a recipe for disaster. Give me Cole Payton and a stout NDSU defense to be the difference. I like the Bison to win this comfortably.

Prediction: North Dakota State (38-10)

Yale at No. 2 Montana State

Kickoff: 1 pm CT (ESPN+)

Yale had one of the greatest comebacks in FCS Playoff history last week, overcoming a 42-14 deficit to stun Youngstown State in the first round. Now, the Bulldogs get to test themselves against one of the hottest teams in FCS football. Montana State has won 10 consecutive games, including ranked wins over UC Davis and Montana in the Brawl of the Wild.

Yale’s offensive game plan is to establish the run and set up the deep ball for quarterback Dante Reno. Everything starts with running back Joshua Pitsenberger, who leads the Bulldogs with 1,447 yards and 18 touchdowns. Reno is going to need his best game of the season. He’s completed 65% of his passes for 2,300 yards, 20 touchdowns, and eight interceptions. Limiting turnovers and staying on schedule will be extremely important if the Bulldogs are going to stay in this game.

For the Bobcats, the rushing attack will be equally important, but the x-factor over the past few games has been quarterback Justin Lamson. He’s played at an elite level as the season has progressed, throwing for 2,345 yards, 20 touchdowns, and only two interceptions. He’s added 589 yards and 11 scores with his legs.

The key for Yale will be limiting Montana State’s rushing offense, which is averaging over 233 yards per game. Julius Davis is one of the best physical running backs in the country, leading the Bobcats with 885 yards, while Adam Jones offers another explosive option with 695 yards and 10 touchdowns. The Bulldogs have held five of their past seven opponents under 100 rushing yards, but can they do it against this elite Montana State unit?

One interesting thing to watch will be Yale’s red-zone defense. The Bulldogs lead all playoff teams in red zone TD%, allowing a touchdown on only 37.9% of opponents’ red zone opportunities. The problem? Montana State has one of the most efficient red zone offenses in the FCS, scoring a touchdown on 74.5% of its red zone opportunities.

The x-factors in this game could be Yale’s Abu Kamara and Montana State’s Caden Dowler, who are two of the best safeties in the country. Kamara recorded 70 tackles, six tackles for loss, 3.5 sacks, two interceptions, and 11 pass breakups on his way to Ivy League Defensive Player of the Year honors. Dowler was named the Big Sky Defensive Player of the Year, leading the Bobcats with 78 tackles, 5.5 tackles for loss, four interceptions, and two forced fumbles.

Last week’s win was so impressive for Yale, making me think doubting them in this one is a mistake, but Montana State is a different beast than Youngstown State. I think the Bobcats wear down Yale’s defense with the run, while the defense makes it very difficult for Yale to establish the run consistently. Give me the Bobcats by multiple scores.

Prediction: Montana State (38-14)

No. 12 Villanova at No. 5 Lehigh

Kickoff: 11 am CT (ESPN+)

Villanova made a statement in the first round, demolishing Harvard in a 52-7 blowout win. The Wildcats have won nine consecutive games and now have a chance to upset a future conference rival. Lehigh enters the postseason undefeated, winning 11 of their 12 games by 10 points or more. The Mountain Hawks are looking to reach the quarterfinals for the first time since 2011.

The Wildcats rushed for over 300 yards last weekend against Harvard, but can the Wildcats find the same success against the No. 1 rushing defense in the FCS? Lehigh is holding opponents to 73.7 rushing yards per game and 2.46 yards per carry. Ja’briel Mace has thrived since David Avit’s injury, leading the Wildcats with 688 rushing yards and nine touchdowns, averaging 7.8 yards per carry. Isaiah Ragland has added 653 yards and two scores, taking a bigger role during Avit’s absence.

The success of Lehigh’s defense is tied to the excellent play of linebackers Brycen Edwards and Tyler Ochojski. Edwards leads the team with 83 tackles, nine tackles for loss, and 5.5 sacks, while Ochojski specializes in negative plays, recording 12 tackles for loss and 10 sacks. Villanova’s defense also features an elite linebacker in Shane Hartzell, who leads the Wildcats with 81 tackles, 14 tackles for loss, and seven sacks.

Lehigh’s offense also features an elite rushing attack, averaging 235.3 rushing yards per game, which ranks No. 4 nationally. Luke Yoder is a workhorse, leading the offense with 1,329 yards and 15 touchdowns on 7.1 yards per carry. Jaden Green appeared to be banged up in the final game, but if he’s available, he offers another talented weapon with 811 yards and eight touchdowns.

With both teams focused on stopping the run, this game could come down to which quarterback makes a play to win. Hayden Johnson has improved this season, completing 62% of his passes for 2,349 yards, 18 touchdowns, and six interceptions. He is also a threat outside the pocket, rushing for 426 yards and four scores. Villanova quarterback Pat McQuaide has also elevated his game since transferring in from Nicholls. He’s completed 61.3% of his passes for 2,536 yards, 22 touchdowns, and only two interceptions.

This game should be extremely competitive, but Lehigh has the better defense and more explosive rushing attack, giving them the edge. I also think Johnson’s ability to make plays outside the pocket will be worth watching. I like Lehigh to find a way to get it done at home.

Prediction: Lehigh (28-21)

No. 10 Abilene Christian at No. 7 Stephen F. Austin

Kickoff: 1 pm CT (ESPN+)

In the first matchup, Abilene Christian scored 28 straight points to overcome an early 14-point deficit to defeat Stephen F. Austin. The Wildcats dominated Lamar, 38-20, in the first round last weekend. The Lumberjacks have won 10 consecutive games since that loss to ACU, making this one of the best games of the weekend.

Stephen F. Austin’s defense has been elite this season, holding opponents to 2.4 yards per carry and 6.02 yards per pass attempt. Linebacker Jaydon Southard leads the team with 110 tackles, 10.5 tackles for loss, and 2.5 sacks. The Lumberjacks also feature two elite cornerbacks in Jalen Mayo and Charles Demmings, who have combined for seven interceptions and 12 pass breakups.

Statistically, Abilene Christian’s defense appears to be a step behind SFA’s, but this team seems to reach another level in big games, winning four ranked games this year. The Wildcats also have two of the best linebackers in the country in Rashon Myles Jr. and Will Shaffer, both totaling over 105 tackles this year. Safety Dorian Plumley has had a breakout year, leading the team with five interceptions.

Each offense also features an elite playmaker on the outside. Kylon Harris leads the Lumberjacks with 64 catches for 800 yards and nine scores. Sam Vidlak will look for him early and often. There was a question about who would step up at wide receiver for ACU, which opened the door for a breakout year for Javon Gipson. He’s been on an absolute tear, recording 100 or more yards in three straight games.

Abilene Christian will need a big game from Stone Earle, who has constantly delivered in big games. He’s thrown for 3,079 yards and 22 touchdowns, but turnovers will be something to watch as he has 10 interceptions this season. Earle’s legs can also be dangerous, rushing for 361 yards and 11 scores. On the other side, Sam Vidlak has had an outstanding season, recording 2,090 passing yards, 18 touchdowns, and six interceptions.

This was one of the toughest games to predict this weekend. I’m going to lean towards Abilene Christian because I trust the Wildcats’ rushing attack a bit more, which will be important if they want to escape with a win on the road. Give me Abilene Christian to find a way to win another big game, advancing to the quarterfinals for the first time in program history.

Prediction: Abilene Christian (28-24)

No. 9 Rhode Island at No. 8 UC Davis

Kickoff: 9 pm CT (ESPN2)

Are you a fan of explosive offenses and high-scoring games? If so, this is the game for you. Two of the best quarterbacks will take center stage for the late-night showcase on ESPN2. The Rams advanced after a 27-19 win over Central Connecticut State, while UC Davis sits at 8-3 overall and earned the final Top 8 seed.

Rhode Island’s offense starts with quarterback Devin Farrell, who has thrown for 3,452 yards, 22 touchdowns, and eight interceptions. He’s done an excellent job limiting turnovers, which was an issue at times last season. His connection with wide receiver Marquis Buchanan is dangerous, as they have connected for 1,224 receiving yards and six touchdowns. They have plenty of depth behind Buchanan with Greg Gaines (935 yards) and Aboraa Kwarteng (547 yards).

On the other side, freshman sensation Caden Pinnick has lived up to the hype in his first season as the starting quarterback. He’s completed 70.5% of his passes for 2,527 yards, 24 touchdowns, and eight interceptions. There’s also no shortage of weapons for the Aggies, including Samuel Gbatu Jr., who leads the team with 949 yards and 10 touchdowns. Stacy Dobbins (549 yards) is another weapon, while tight end Ian Simpson is a matchup nightmare at 6-foot-3 and 235 pounds.

I would expect both offenses to find success through the air, which puts a ton of pressure on these rushing attacks. Last week, Rhode Island struggled to establish the run, which gives me some concern against a talented UC Davis defense. The Aggies lost Carter Vargas to injury, which means it’ll be Jordan Fisher as the main workhorse on Saturday night.

It’ll be important for both defenses to get pressure on the opposing quarterback, keeping them out of rhythm and uncomfortable in the pocket. The Rams feature one of the best edge rushers in the FCS in A.J. Pena, who leads the team with 19 tackles for loss and 10 sacks. Harvard transfer Jacob Psyk has been outstanding for UC Davis, posting a team-high 15 tackles for loss and nine sacks.

I expect this to be a high-scoring game with both offenses finding success through the air. I’m going to go with UC Davis winning a one-score game, trusting Pinnick to make some key plays down the stretch to secure the victory.

Prediction: UC Davis (38-31)

North Dakota at No. 4 Tarleton State

Kickoff: Noon CT (ESPN+)

North Dakota hit the road and won a competitive game against No. 13 seed Tennessee State. The final score was 31-6, but it was a 10-6 game entering the fourth quarter. It was an absolute defensive masterclass for the Hawks. As for Tarleton State, the Texans finished 11-1 overall, including an FBS win over Army. Now, the question for the Texans is whether this is a program ready for a deep playoff run.

There’s a misconception that Tarleton State wants to throw the ball around the field, but at the heart of this offense is a need to establish the run. This offense doesn’t run efficiently without a strong run game, making North Dakota’s ability to stop the run the key to this game. The Texans are 11-0 this season when rushing for 130 or more yards; their only loss came in a game in which they had only 93 rushing yards.

North Dakota’s rushing defense has been elite this season, holding opponents to 99.5 yards per game and 2.9 yards per carry. The Hawks have held seven different teams to under 100 rushing yards, including Tennessee Tech last weekend. Linebacker Malachi McNeal is the leader of this defense, leading the team with 83 tackles, six tackles for loss, two sacks, and one interception.

As big as the run game will be, North Dakota’s pass rush will need to be a huge factor on Saturday. An elite pass rush causes a ton of issues for the offensive scheme that Tarleton State wants to run. Lance Rucker has been playing at an All-American level, posting 14 tackles for loss and 10.5 sacks. Also, don’t forget about Kaden Vig, who has added 36 tackles, six tackles for loss, and 5.5 sacks. The Texans rank 5th among playoff teams in pressure rate allowed, making this a very intriguing matchup.

The x-factor for Tarleton State could be Tylan Hines, who was injured in Week 0 but returned for the final two games of the year. He wasted no time making an impact, rushing for 295 yards and three touchdowns. James Paige has also emerged as an option due to injuries, rushing for 520 yards and eight touchdowns after making the move from quarterback.

For North Dakota’s offense, there’s the question of who is going to start at quarterback. Jerry Kaminski left the last game with a concussion, needing to be cleared before tomorrow’s game. If he’s unable to go, last season’s starter Simon Romfo will step into the QB1 role. Regardless of who starts at quarterback, the Hawks cannot afford to turn the ball over against a Tarleton State defense that leads all playoff teams with a 4.8% turnover rate.

Tarleton State’s defense will be tested with a solid downhill rushing attack from North Dakota. Sawyer Seidl leads the Hawks with 879 yards and 11 touchdowns. The return of Gaven Ziebarth was huge last weekend, helping North Dakota close out the game vs TTU. He’s averaging 6.9 yards per carry, making him a potential game-changer this weekend.

The last thing to mention for this game is Tarleton State’s defensive line, which has been a bit overlooked ahead of this weekend. Brandon Tolvert is a force on the interior, posting 44 tackles, 8.5 tackles for loss, and three sacks. On the edge, Yasir Holmes and Angelo Anderson have combined for 23.5 tackles for loss and 15.5 sacks. The Texans need this unit to play its best game of the season, especially against North Dakota’s downhill rushing attack.

I’ll be honest, I struggled locking in my pick for this game, but the uncertainty surrounding Kaminski’s health gives Tarleton State the edge. I expect this to be a one-score game either way, but Victor Gabalis and the Texans’ offense will find a way to escape with a win at home.

Prediction: Tarleton State (27-24)

No. 11 South Dakota at No. 6 Mercer

Kickoff: 11 am CT (ESPN+)

South Dakota advanced to the second round with a win over Drake last weekend. The Coyotes are hot right now, winning seven of their past eight games, including three ranked wins to end the regular season. Mercer secured a Top 8 seed after winning nine consecutive FCS games to end the season. With a win, the Bears would secure their second consecutive appearance in the quarterfinals.

Everything starts with Mercer’s passing attack, which is led by Jerry Rice Award winner Braden Atkinson. The true freshman has completed 68.1% of his passes for 3,448 yards, 34 touchdowns, and seven interceptions. He’s 9-0 against the FCS as a starter, but can he do it on this stage in the FCS Playoffs against a talented South Dakota secondary?

Two key factors have helped Atkinson develop into one of the best quarterbacks in the FCS. The first being a much-improved offensive line, which has allowed only four sacks this season and ranks 2nd among playoff teams in pressure rate allowed. South Dakota has not generated a ton of pressure this year, but can the Coyotes find a way to make the freshman uncomfortable in the pocket?

The other is a surplus of weapons on the outside, including Adjatay Dabbs, who leads the team with 856 yards and eight touchdowns. Brayden Smith has a team-high 58 catches, along with 687 yards and seven touchdowns. We also can’t forget Adonis McDaniel, who has added 639 yards on 48 catches for six touchdowns. This group has to win their one-on-one matchups on the outside this weekend.

For South Dakota, the key to the game is easy… Run the football. L.J. Phillips Jr. is becoming a superstar, rushing for 1,688 yards and 16 touchdowns on 6.4 yards per carry. The run game sets up everything else this offense wants to do over the top. Mercer has been elite against the run, holding eight of its 10 FCS opponents under 100 rushing yards, but the Bears haven’t faced a downhill rushing attack that’s this physical all season.

After a slow start, quarterback Aidan Bouman has found his rhythm and is playing his best football for the Coyotes. He’s completing 61.2% of his passes for 2,404 yards, 22 touchdowns, and six interceptions. Keep an eye on Larenzo Fenner, who is one of the best deep threats in the country. The sophomore is averaging 22.6 yards per reception, which ranks No. 3 nationally. In the past two games, Fenner has recorded 245 receiving yards and six touchdowns.

The Coyotes’ offensive line hasn’t allowed a ton of sacks this year, but entered the playoffs allowing pressure on 35.6% of all dropbacks, ranking 23rd among 24 playoff teams. This is important to note because Mercer leads the country in sacks per game, averaging nearly four. Andrew Zock could be the x-factor this weekend. He leads the Bears with 20 tackles for loss, 11.5 sacks, and 22 QBHs.

This is another interesting game to analyze. On paper, Mercer is not a great matchup for South Dakota, but the Coyotes have been tested all season and are playing their best football when it matters most. I’m going to go with Mercer at home, winning a close game behind another outstanding performance from Atkinson.

Prediction: Mercer (27-20)

No. 14 South Dakota State at No. 3 Montana

Kickoff: 1 pm CT (ESPN+)

We almost never get matchups like this in the second round, making this the most anticipated game in the second round. It truly feels like a potential semifinals matchup. South Dakota State dominated New Hampshire in a 41-3 rout, advancing to the second round. Montana finished the season 11-1 overall, securing the No. 3 overall seed.

It’s nearly impossible to know what version of South Dakota State we see on Saturday night. The Jacks are not the same team we saw win in Bozeman in Week 2, but they certainly aren’t the same team we saw lose to Indiana State. Did Chase Mason’s return unlock the true potential of this team? Or were the Jackrabbits able to take advantage of an overmatched New Hampshire team last week? We’ll find out on Saturday afternoon in Missoula.

Even with Mason’s return, South Dakota State’s rushing attack has been the key over the past two games. After a season of inconsistency, the Jacks have been much more effective on the ground. Julius Loughride appears to be more comfortable, rushing for 1,016 yards and seven touchdowns this season. Freshman Josiah Johnson has assumed a bigger role, rushing for 279 yards and six scores in only seven games.

SDSU’s offensive line has allowed opposing defenses to generate too many negative plays, which could be a problem against this Montana defense. Linebacker Peyton Wing is a player to watch, posting 59 tackles, 6.5 tackles for loss, 3.5 sacks, and three interceptions. Defensive end Hunter Peck has been outstanding this season, recording 6.5 tackles for loss and a team-high 4.5 sacks.

The true x-factor is Montana quarterback Keali’i Ah Yat, who has been really good most of the year, but still has moments of inconsistency. Can the Jackrabbits take advantage of his mistakes? If not, it could be a problem because this offense is too explosive to be shut down for the entire game. Ah Yat has thrown for 3,154 yards, 25 touchdowns, and eight interceptions.

Ah Yat’s surrounding cast can create problems for most defenses in the country. Michael Wortham is the most versatile weapon in the FCS, including leading the Griz with 825 receiving yards and seven touchdowns. Freshman Brooks Davis is another playmaker, posting 611 yards and five touchdowns.

Then there’s Eli Gillman, who might be the best running back in the entire country. He leads the offense with 1,261 rushing yards and 17 touchdowns on 6.6 yards per carry. The Jacks have been solid against the run most of the season, and the potential return of linebacker Chase Van Tol could give this defense an extra boost. If the Griz can establish the run, this game dramatically shifts in their favor.

One matchup that worries me for South Dakota State is that Montana should have an advantage at defensive back. Yes, the raw statistics say Montana allows a ton of passing yards, but the Griz rank Top 30 nationally in defensive pass efficiency. Can SDSU’s wide receivers win those one-on-one matchups on the outside? That could go a long way in determining this game. Kenzel Lawler (2 INTs, 10 PBUs) and Micah Harper (2 INTs, 5 PBUs) are two names to watch on Saturday.

Another game that I’ve gone back and forth on my pick, but I’m going to stick with Montana to find a way to get it done at home. I like the Grizzlies to find some success with Gillman on the ground, while the defense makes one or two stops to seal the game in the 4th quarter.

Prediction: Montana (30-23)

South Dakota Coyotes (5-4) at Northern Colorado Bears (8-1)

Greeley, Colorado; Saturday, 8 p.m. EST

BOTTOM LINE: Northern Colorado hosts South Dakota after Quinn Denker scored 22 points in Northern Colorado’s 75-70 victory against the Omaha Mavericks.

The Bears have gone 3-0 at home. Northern Colorado ranks seventh in the Big Sky with 8.4 offensive rebounds per game led by Brock Wisne averaging 2.6.

The Coyotes have gone 0-2 away from home. South Dakota is fifth in the Summit League giving up 79.2 points while holding opponents to 47.9% shooting.

Northern Colorado is shooting 49.5% from the field this season, 1.6 percentage points higher than the 47.9% South Dakota allows to opponents. South Dakota scores 12.6 more points per game (83.2) than Northern Colorado allows to opponents (70.6).

TOP PERFORMERS: Zack Bloch is shooting 52.5% from beyond the arc with 3.4 made 3-pointers per game for the Bears, while averaging 13.4 points and 1.7 steals. Denker is shooting 52.3% and averaging 18.7 points.

Isaac Bruns is scoring 18.3 points per game and averaging 4.6 rebounds for the Coyotes. Jordan Crawford is averaging 11.9 points.

___

The Associated Press created this story using technology provided by Data Skrive and data from Sportradar.

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