Ohio is shaping up to be a top battleground state this year, and MS NOW’s election team now characterizes its Senate race as a Toss Up.

We are updating the race based primarily on multiple high-quality polls showing a very tight contest, as well as the candidates running and the broader political environment.

The contest is technically a special election to fill out the remainder of Vice President JD Vance’s term. Republican Jon Husted, who was appointed to the seat after Vance took office in 2025, is running to defend it for the first time.

The candidates and structural forces

While Ohio is still often thought of as a bellwether state, it has voted reliably Republican in recent presidential elections. The state has shifted to the right during President Donald Trump’s political rise, backing him in all three of his presidential campaigns.

Ohio’s last few Senate races, however, have been more competitive. Vance won by six points in 2022, while Republican Bernie Moreno beat Democrat Sherrod Brown by less than four points in 2024, narrowly ousting Brown from office after he served three terms in the Senate.

Brown’s showing two years ago is more impressive than it might seem at first blush. A relatively well-liked senator with working-class appeal, he was likely dragged down by his party’s brand. He came close to hanging onto his seat in an unfavorable environment for Democrats. That four-point loss meant he ran ahead of Kamala Harris, who lost to Trump by 11 points.

And 2026 looks to be a much better environment for Democrats.

Trump’s approval rating and the GOP’s favorability ratings are underwater amid an unpopular war and widespread economic dissatisfaction. Brown is running again, and polls indicate he has a real shot at flipping the seat.

The polls

No single poll should be viewed as definitive, but a clear pattern has emerged in recent weeks. A Fox News poll made waves four weeks ago, showing Brown with a lead outside the poll’s margin of sampling error. Since then, two more high-quality polls have shown a very competitive race: one commissioned by AARP and fielded by a bipartisan team of pollsters, and the other released this week by the New York Times and Siena College. Both show a three-point race, which is well within the margin of error, and they differ on which candidate is ahead. This is what polling in a true toss-up race looks like.

HAMDEN, Ohio (AP) — The 16 children found living in “deplorable” conditions inside a small, dilapidated rural Ohio home are part of the same family, officials said Wednesday.

Authorities arrested four adults Tuesday on felony child endangerment charges after finding the children in the home. Some were in dire need of medical treatment, authorities said.

Vinton County prosecuting attorney William Archer said the four adults were charged with second-degree felony child endangering because it involves “serious physical harm.”

Gary Siders Jr., Gary Siders Sr., Christina Siders and Elizabeth Siders appeared in court Wednesday where a judge entered not guilty pleas on their behalf.. They have not yet been assigned lawyers.

Ohio Attorney General Andy Wilson said Wednesday that the conditions inside the house in the tiny village of Hamden were almost indescribable, saying it “really looked third world.”

“It’s just almost beyond comprehension,” he said without providing details about what was inside.

It appeared that the children spent most of their time in just one room for much of the four years they lived there, Wilson said.

The house sits on a road tucked away alongside a steep railroad embankment, where tracks carry rumbling trains through Hamden. On Wednesday, its doors and windows stood open to the 94-degree Fahrenheit (34-degree Celsius) heat. A tangle of discarded children’s items — two busted bicycles, a plastic play table, a beach pail and two infant carriers — stood in a pile in the yard.

The Ohio Bureau of Investigation and local sheriff’s department searched the home on Tuesday.

The children ranged in age from 1 1/2 years to 18 years old and included both boys and girls, officials said. Seven were transported to hospitals in Columbus and two were flown by helicopters.

Hamden has a population of less than 1,000 people and is about 60 miles (97 kilometers) southeast of Columbus.

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Seewer reported from Toledo, Ohio.

Authorities arrested four adults on felony child endangerment charges after discovering 16 children in dire need of medical treatment Tuesday in a rural southern Ohio home.

The Ohio Bureau of Investigation and local sheriff’s department searched a home in the small village of Hamden, where they found the kids in what officials called “deplorable” conditions.”

“Conditions you cannot even imagine people being in, let alone children being in,” Ohio Attorney General Andy Wilson said at a news conference.

Law enforcement arrested Gary Siders Jr., Gary Siders Sr., Christina Siders and Elizabeth Siders. They have not yet been arraigned and assigned public defenders.

Vinton County prosecuting attorney William Archer said they were being charged with second-degree felony child endangering because it involves “serious physical harm.”

Officials did not confirm if the children were related but said it was not a human trafficking situation. They said the adults were not locals and appeared to have been traveling.

Hamden has a population of less than 1,000 people and is about 60 miles southeast of Columbus.

The children ranged from ages 1.5 to 18 and included both boys and girls, officials said. Several were in serious conditions when found, and two had to be flown to level one trauma centers because of their injuries.

Wilson said it was the worst scene he had ever encountered in his entire career, describing what he saw as “pure evil.”

Law enforcement were also executing a secondary search warrant at the home Tuesday, and the investigation is ongoing. The four adults will appear in court Wednesday morning.

“Justice will be served for these children,” Wilson said.