Big Ten football kicks off on the shores of Lake Michigan this weekend as No. 2 Ohio State hits the road against Northwestern. Let’s check in with the latest prediction for the matchup from an analytical model that simulates games.

Ohio State is still behind undefeated Oregon and Indiana in the Big Ten standings and, with the loss to the Ducks, needs to stay winning with the Hoosiers coming up next weekend.

Northwestern moved to 2-4 in Big Ten play after getting past Purdue last time out but sits 120th in passing output and 126th out of 134 FBS teams in scoring production with 18 points per game.

Looking ahead to this week’s matchup, let’s check out the latest college football predictions from the Football Power Index computer prediction model.

The model simulates every NCAA college football game 20,000 times and uses key analytics from both teams and picks winners based on a projected scoring margin per game.

As expected, the models are siding strongly with the Buckeyes over the Wildcats this weekend.

Ohio State is the big favorite on the road, coming out ahead in 95.3 percent of the computer’s most recent simulations of the game.

That leaves Northwestern as the presumptive winner in the remaining 4.7 percent of sims.

In total, the Buckeyes came out ahead in 19,060 of the index’s calculations of the game, while the Wildcats edged out OSU in the other 940 predictions.

How does that translate to an expected margin of victory in the game?

Ohio State is projected to be 26.7 points better than Northwestern on the same field in both teams’ current composition, according to the model’s latest forecast.

If so, that wouldn’t be enough for the Buckeyes to cover the spread against the Wildcats.

That’s because Ohio State is a 28.5 point favorite against Northwestern, according to the updated lines posted to FanDuel Sportsbook.

FanDuel lists the total at 43.5 points for the game (Over -115, Under -105).

The book didn’t list any moneyline odds for the game, given the Buckeyes are such big favorites.

A slight majority of bettors expect the Wildcats will make things closer against the Buckeyes, according to the latest spread consensus picks for the game.

Northwestern is getting 53 percent of bets to either win outright in the upset, or more likely, to keep the final margin under 29 points in a loss.

The other 47 percent of wagers project Ohio State will win the game and cover the big point spread.

Ohio State is first among Big Ten teams and third nationally with a 92.5 percent chance to qualify for the College Football Playoff, according to the FPI’s metrics.

That model gives the Buckeyes a win total projection of 11 games this season.

Northwestern’s postseason hopes are just about dashed, but not extinguished just yet.

The model projects the Wildcats will win 4.6 games in ‘24.

That translates to a 10.9 percent shot to become bowl eligible this season.

Football Power Index (FPI) college football rankings and computer prediction model are a measure of team strength that predicts a team’s future performance. 

Rankings and scores predictions are based on 20,000 simulations of a team’s season and games, using a combination of key analytics, including scores to date, quality of opponents, team talent, recruiting, and a team’s schedule.

Teams are ranked not in order of talent like in other rankings, but by a projected point margin per game against an average team on a neutral field.

1. Oregon
2. Ohio State
3. Texas
4. Penn State
5. Indiana
6. BYU
7. Tennessee
8. Notre Dame
9. Miami
10. Alabama
11. Ole Miss
12. Georgia
13. Boise State
14. SMU
15. Texas A&M
16. Kansas State
17. Colorado
18. Washington State
19. Louisville
20. Clemson
21. South Carolina
22. LSU
23. Missouri
24. Army
25. Tulane

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When: Sat., Nov. 16
Time: 12 p.m. Eastern
TV: Big Ten Network

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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.

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More college football from SI: Top 25 Rankings | Schedule | Teams

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The Big Ten Conference college football teams in the state of Michigan are struggling this season. As the Michigan Wolverines currently sit at 5-5 overall and the Michigan State Spartans are 4-5, the state’s NFL team is certainly not facing the same struggles.

The Detroit Lions are rolling in 2024 and despite a rough performance in the first half versus C.J. Stroud and the Houston Texans this past week, Dan Campbell’s squad fought back in the second half and pulled off a surprising comeback. The 26-23 victory moves the Lions to 8-1 on the year.

Even though the Lions are full steam ahead towards a playoff birth and potential Super Bowl run, a new mock draft for 2025 has the Lions selecting an Ohio State star to further improve the roster.

The 33rd team posted a first-round mock draft with Detroit selecting offensive guard Donovan Jackson with the No. 31 pick.

Notably, the city of Detroit is no stranger to being the home of Ohio State offensive linemen. Taylor Decker has been the starting left tackle for the team since 2016. Not only has he spent his whole nine-year NFL career with the Lions, but his contract extension this offseason likely means that he will be there much longer as well.

In 2020, the Lions drafted offensive guard Jonah Jackson who played in 57 games with the team prior to signing with the Los Angeles Rams as a free agent in the spring. Could a different Jackson from Ohio State be a solid fit with the Lions?

Absolutely.

Donovan Jackson is a tough offensive guard with lots of playing experience at the collegiate level. As injuries have occurred to his left on Ohio State’s line, Jackson has found himself in a very new position. He has been tasked with bumping out to left tackle.

This has likely been a positive for him. It shows off his versatility and his willingness to do whatever is needed to win games. At 6’4″, Jackson does not have true tackle length and will likely not be asked to play anything other than guard at the next level. That being said, if the worst case scenario appears, Jackson can be ready.

With Decker and Jackson potentially manning the left side of Detroit’s line, David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs should feel confident about running to the left side.

It’s not often that a game’s most intriguing aspect is its site, but that’s the case this week for Ohio State.

The No. 2 Buckeyes play Northwestern on Saturday at Wrigley Field, home of the Chicago Cubs. The Wildcats’ home field, Ryan Field, is undergoing a two-year rebuild. The team’s temporary makeshift stadium on campus holds only about 15,000 fans, so Wrigley Field is an alternate site for higher-profile games.

Ohio State coach Ryan Day, a New Hampshire native, attended baseball games as a kid at Boston’s Fenway Park, which opened only two years before Wrigley Field’s debut in 2014.

“As I got older, I had an opportunity to see the Cubs play in Wrigley,” Day said Tuesday. “The surrounding area, the restaurants in the area, it’s just got a great vibe. It’s a unique place with an unbelievable history, so it’s a great opportunity for us. I’m also excited for Buckeye Nation to get to the game and experience that as well.”

The Buckeyes will visit Wrigley on Friday after arriving in Chicago to gain some familiarity with it.

“It’s a different feel, but it’s a great opportunity for our team,” Day said. “Ultimately, it’ll be a 100-yard football field and there will be stands and we’ll compete.”

More: Ohio State football stock report: Special teams impact widens in shutout win over Purdue

As for the opponent, this should be similar to last week’s mismatch against Purdue. A year after being the surprise team in the Big Ten under David Braun following the firing of longtime coach Pat Fitzgerald, Northwestern is 4-5 (2-4 Big Ten). Ohio State is nearly a 30-point favorite.

Two years ago, the Buckeyes won in Evanston 21-7 in a game played in extreme wind. The wind is expected to be only 10-15 mph on Saturday.

More: Ohio State football history: 2014 College Football Playoff Championship 10th anniversary

“Good,” Day said. “That’s 70 mph less than last time we were here.”

Here are four takeaways from what Day, offensive coordinator Chip Kelly and quarterback Will Howard said at Tuesday’s press conference:

Footwork the big issue in deep passing game problems

By almost all measures, Will Howard’s season has been a success. He has completed 74% of his passes this year after completing less than 60% in his career at Kansas State. In four of his last five games, Howard has completed at least 80% of his passes.

But sporadic success on deep passes is the most glaring deficiency in OSU’s offense. Against Purdue last week, Carnell Tate was open but couldn’t hang on to an underthrown pass when he hit the turf. Against Penn State, two potential touchdowns went for incompletions. Jeremiah Smith slowed down on one route. On the other, Howard’s pass to Tate drifted out of bounds.

Day and Howard said the main issue is the quarterback’s footwork.

“That’s something we’re going to continue to work through,” Day said. “I think he’s throwing some really good balls down the field, and then sometimes he’s been a little bit late with his feet. When his feet are right, he throws a good ball.”

Howard said his feet have tended to “go dead a little bit” on deep throws.

“We’re emphasizing this week keeping my feet alive,” he said.

Day pleased with left side of offensive line

The Purdue game was Ohio State’s second with Donovan Jackson at left tackle and Carson Hinzman at left guard, and Day is happy with how they played on Saturday.

Hinzman was the starting center last year before losing the job to Alabama transfer Seth McLaughlin. He had played little until left tackle Josh Simmons was lost for the season in the Oregon game, forcing the line shuffle.

“He was solid,” Day said. “He’s taking the next step at guard.”

Purdue used a “Bear” front often against Ohio State with linemen bunched together in the middle of the line.

“A lot of 1-on-1 blocks there, so you’ve got to sustain your blocks,” Day said.

Hinzman left the game with a left knee injury late in the second quarter but returned after halftime.

“He got a little scare there, but he’s fine now,” Day said. “Another week of work, another week of experience at playing guard will go a long way.”

Howard said he had faith that Jackson and Hinzman would play well even before they were thrust into new roles.

“I think a lot of people around Buckeye Nation were concerned, and I really wasn’t,” he said. “I knew those guys would step up to the challenge. I knew they were ready for it.

“I’m so proud of those guys with how they’ve stepped into their new roles and done an amazing job. But I’m not surprised, and I think they have a lot more ahead of them.”

Day mostly happy with Eddrick Houston’s starting debut

Eddrick Houston was the prize defensive line recruit in this year’s recruiting class. In fact, Day left his signing day press conference for a phone call with Houston to keep him in the fold when it looked like the player was wavering.

Houston was recruited as a defensive end, but he has been moved to the 3-technique tackle position. Against Purdue, coaches decided to give Tyleik Williams extra time to heal from an ankle injury, and Houston got the start.

He was credited with two tackles and an assist in 27 snaps. He also committed a costly penalty when he shoved a Purdue player after a third-down stop, drawing a personal foul.

“There was obviously the one silly penalty that he’ll have to learn from,” Day said. “But overall, I thought there were a lot of flashes for somebody who has not played inside a whole bunch in his career.

“He’s got strength. He’s got power. He ran to the football. He didn’t quite grade out (as a champion), but I think there’s a really bright future there at 3-technique for Eddrick.”

Day said Williams will play against Northwestern.

Is the backup quarterback battle tightening?

When Ohio State lifted its offensive starters early in the fourth quarter, Devin Brown took the next six snaps.

But on the next one, a third-and-12 from the OSU 46, Day inserted Julian Sayin. The freshman scrambled for 19 yards and a first down. Sayin then took the final seven snaps.

Neither backup had success throwing. Brown’s only pass, a short throw to Brandon Innis, was thrown high. Sayin was 0 for 5, including a drop by Inniss.

Brown is 10 for 19 passing this season for 108 yards and one touchdown. Sayin is 5 for 12 for 84 yards with one score.

“Devin right now is our backup, but Julian is pushing hard,” Day said. “We’ll keep evaluating it every week and see where those guys are.”

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