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Ohio special election result could signal Democrat edge with key voter group: election expert

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Tuesday’s special election in Ohio to fill a vacant U.S. House seat showed off a Democratic advantage in high-engagement voters, with the district swinging roughly 20 points in Democrats’ favor, compared to previous elections.

While Republican state Sen. Michael Rulli defeated his Democratic opponent Michael Kripchak by just under 10 points in the special election for Ohio’s 6th Congressional District, it was a disappointing margin in a district that had been won by outgoing Rep. Bill Johnson, R-Ohio., by more than 30 points just two years ago.

“It looks like state Sen. Michael Rulli (R) is on track for a significant underperformance in tonight’s #OH06 special election,” Cook Political Report senior editor Dave Wasserman said on X as the results rolled in, noting that former President Trump had carried the same district by 29 points in 2020.

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President Biden and former President Trump (Getty Images)

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The result could be seen as a confusing one for many political observers, with Ohio as a state trending more towards Republicans in recent elections, and the 6th Congressional District having been a safe haven for the GOP for over a decade.

But the result highlights a growing problem for Republicans nationally ahead of this year’s general election, Wasserman notes, pointing out that Democrats have a growing enthusiasm edge as November approaches.

“Turnout in #OH06 looks abysmal, and as we’ve seen in tons of specials/polls, Dems have a growing advantage w/ the highest-engagement voters,” Wasserman said on X.

Michael Rulli, R-Ohio, at campaign event

Ohio state Sen. Michael Rulli (Bill Clark/CQ-Roll Call, Inc via Getty Images)

Wasserman’s comments come on the heels of Cook Political Report’s “swing state polling project” conducted last month, which looked into the swing states of Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin and divided voters into three groups.

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The first group, whom the report called “high-engagement” voters, features those who “voted in all four of the past four federal elections or voted in the 2022 midterms if they registered after 2020.” The middle tier features voters whom the report called “low/mid-engagement” voters, or those who “skipped at least one of the past four federal elections.” The last group contained new registrants since 2020, which can include those that moved between states.

The report found a growing “participation gap” in presidential preferences, with President Biden holding a four point edge among “high engagement” voters, or those most likely to vote on election day. Trump, meanwhile, held a 10 point lead among “low-mid engagement” voters and newly registered voters.

Such a gap could play a role in tightly contested swing states, with “high-engagement voters” representing the majority of the electorate.

President Joe Biden at lectern

President Biden speaks at a campaign event at Pullman Yards on March 9, 2024, in Atlanta. (Megan Varner/Getty Images)

 

Ohio, which has traditionally been a swing state but was won comfortably by Trump in the last two elections, looks once again to be trending toward Trump in November. According to the latest Real Clear Politics Polling Average, the former president holds a 10-point lead on Biden in the state.

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South Dakota

Governor Noem gives update on flooding in SE South Dakota

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Governor Noem gives update on flooding in SE South Dakota


YANKTON, S.D. (Dakota News Now) – On Tuesday afternoon, Governor Kristi Noem held a press conference in Yankton to give the latest update on flooding in Southeastern South Dakota.

During that press conference, Noem said that late last week state officials were informed of different cresting times for rivers. Luckily the James, Vermillion, and Big Sioux Rivers crested earlier than anticipated and at different times from one another. The James River was the final river of the three to crest, reaching its peak early Tuesday morning.

As the rivers have started to recede, cleanup is underway. Noem said the state is currently working with 30 counties in assessing to total damage done and submitting their reports to FEMA.

“We have to have a loss in order to qualify for FEMA of $1.6 million worth of property damage in order to qualify,” Noem explained. It’ll take up to 30 days until the state has notice of the funds they received.

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However, when it comes to those damages, the governor has her eyes set on McCook Lake as her highest priority. She described how they underestimated the damage it would undergo. She said that they are currently working on a time for residents to obtain their belongings from within their homes and encourages individuals to stay away from the damage.

Noem did make it a point to thank law enforcement and emergency personnel who have traveled from all over that state to Southeast South Dakota to help with the flood waters. She also wants to remind individuals that are traveling on flooded roads or ones with barricades to turn around. For the latest on road conditions, click here.



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Wisconsin

Wisconsin Dells man arrested following child pornography investigation, deputies say

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Wisconsin Dells man arrested following child pornography investigation, deputies say


MADISON, Wis. (WMTV) – A 31-year-old Wisconsin Dells man was arrested following an internet crime investigation, Adams County Wisconsin Sheriff’s Office reported on Tuesday.

According to a sheriff’s office Facebook post, the investigation started after the National Center for Missing and Exploited Children sent in a cybertip. The tip reported about 65 suspected child pornography images being shared or uploaded with other users.

Investigators also learned that the suspect was also being investigated by the El Paso Police Department in Illinois for allegedly sending child pornography videos or images along with communicating with who the suspect believed was a 15-year-old girl.

On June 21, the Wisconsin Department of Justice-Division of Criminal Investigations executed a search warrant at the suspect’s residence on the 3600 block of STH 13 in Wisconsin Dells.

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The man was taken into custody on active warrant through the state of Illinois for ten counts of distributing child pornography, one count of indecent solicitation of a minor and one count of grooming.

Wisconsin Department of Justice was among several agencies that helped the Adams County Sheriff’s Office with this investigation.

Authorities are continuing to investigate this case.

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Midwest

Wisconsin woman attempted to poison veterinarian husband with animal euthanasia drugs to steal assets: police

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A Wisconsin woman faces more than a decade behind bars for poisoning her 71-year-old veterinarian husband, spiking his coffee with animal euthanasia drugs multiple times shortly after their wedding and ultimately putting him in a coma, police say. 

Amanda Alicia Chapin, 51, pleaded no contest on Friday to a charge of felony first-degree reckless endangering the safety of Gary Chapin, per Wisconsin Circuit Court records. The charge was downgraded from first-degree attempted homicide in a plea deal with Lafayette County prosecutors last week. 

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Chapin allegedly put barbituates she stole from her husband in his coffee three times between July and August 2022. The couple was married in March of that year, after which the woman forged one of her husband’s children’s signatures on a power of attorney document, according to a criminal complaint previously reviewed by Fox News Digital. 

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This booking photo provided by the Lafayette County, Wis., Sheriff’s Office, shows Amanda Chapin. Wisconsin prosecutors have charged Chapin with repeatedly poisoning her husband, Gary Chapin, during the summer of 2022. (Lafayette County Sheriff’s Office via AP)

The woman also insisted that her husband amend the deed to his house to ensure that she would be the sole homeowner in the event of his death, Fox 6 Milwaukee reported. Two weeks after the deed was amended, Chapin allegedly began drugging her husband’s coffee.

Chapin met the 70-year-old veterinarian online, The Monroe Times reported. Their relationship was “fairly stormy from the beginning,” per the criminal complaint, and the man’s family had suspicions that he was “just a ‘sugar daddy’ for Amanda.”

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The third and final dose of the drugs put Gary Chapin into a four-day coma, and his blood work found the same drugs he used to put animals down in his system. 

Chapin reportedly waited three hours to call 911 when he wouldn’t wake up. Only a few hours after he fell into a coma, prosecutors said Chapin logged into his personal email and began forwarding herself email conversations with his attorney and children.

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Lafayette County Circuit Court

Amanda Chapin pleaded no contest to felony charges of reckless endangerment of safety in Lafayette County Circuit Court on Friday. (Google Maps)

Before the drugs were discovered in his father’s system, Gary Chapin’s son filed a restraining order against Amanda Chapin, suspecting that she had been the cause of her father’s medical emergency. 

According to the criminal complaint, Chapin violated the restraining order in September 2022 by emailing her husband a suicide note, saying that she decided to kill herself because her husband’s children were trying to “destroy” her. 

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SSM Health Monroe Clinic Medical Group

Gary Chapin was cared for during his coma at SSM Health Monroe Clinic Medical Group. There, the barbiturates he used to euthanize animals were found in his blood stream. (Google Maps)

“The only thing I am guilty of is loving you SOOOOOOOOOO MUCH,” the note, which was included in the complaint, said.

Paramedics responded to her house and took her to a local hospital – the next day Gary Chapin filed for divorce. 

Lafayette County Circuit Court Judge Barbara W. McCoy ordered a presentencing investigation and scheduled Chapin’s sentencing hearing for July 15, Law & Crime reported. She faces a maximum of 12.5 years in a state correctional facility.

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