Matt Rhule, Dylan Raiola and Nebraska football return to the field for one of the Huskers’ most important games of the season as they seek bowl eligibility vs. UCLA on Saturday.

The Huskers (5-3 overall, 2-3 Big Ten) were reeling coming off a 56-7 loss at Indiana but rebounded in a significant way last week to nearly pull off a road upset of No. 4 Ohio State in a 21-17 loss.

Now, Nebraska returns to Lincoln for its first home game since a 14-7 win over Rutgers on Oct. 5 as it hosts the struggling Bruins (2-5, 1-4) at 2:30 p.m. CT this Saturday on Big Ten Network.

UCLA faced a daunting schedule to open the season but ended a five-game losing streak to No. 13 Indiana, No. 16 LSU (road), No. 1 Oregon, at No. 3 Penn State (road) and unranked Minnesota* with a 35-32 win at Rutgers two weeks ago before hitting a bye week.

Inside Nebraska publisher Zack Carpenter, staff writer Steve Marik and recruiting analyst Tim Verghese give their takes and projections on how they envision things playing out between the Huskers and Bruins in the latest edition of Bold Predictions.

*All rankings are current. Indiana was unranked, LSU was ranked No. 16, Oregon was ranked No. 8, and Penn State was ranked No. 7 at the time of those games.

Nebraska welcomes UCLA to Lincoln on Saturday. The Huskers are playing to become bowl eligible for the first time in nearly a decade. The Bruins, who will be coming off a bye week, started off with a bear of a schedule that included Indiana, LSU, Oregon, and Penn State. They have seen some success more recently, with a close loss to Minnesota followed by a win over Rutgers. 

On behalf of the Common Fan podcast, here are three keys to victory for the Huskers, and two keys to victory for all the fellow Common Fans. 

NEBRASKA’S KEYS TO VICTORY

Don’t Lay an Egg. I don’t know how else to say this. Nebraska needs to not choke on Saturday. The Huskers are 5-3, one win away from being bowl eligible for the first time since 2016. UCLA is 2-5. UCLA has a first year head coach. While they’ve shown improvement in recent games, UCLA is not the better team. Conversely, Nebraska is the team with the second year head coach whose culture is firmly established. Nebraska will be playing at home. Nebraska is favored (most betting lines currently have the Huskers favored by around seven points). THERE IS NO REASON NEBRASKA SHOULD LOSE THIS GAME. If we want to point to the tough but competitive loss at Ohio State as a turning point, a moral victory, a valuable lesson, any of those things…they need to show the same championship level effort and take care of business against UCLA.

And while I would have much preferred Nebraska had beat Illinois and/or Indiana and/or Ohio State, it will be pretty cool if the Big Red can get the bowl monkey off their back at Memorial Stadium in a conference game in November, a month that has been a struggle in recent years. The home crowd should be juiced on Saturday. 

Suffocate the Bruins. UCLA holds one distinction coming into this game. They are, in fact, the worst rushing team in the country, sitting dead last among all FBS teams from sea to shining sea. That translates to 134th nationally. The Bruins are averaging an anemic 2.54 yards per carry, and have gained a total of 452 yards on the ground so far this season. The next team on the list (you know, the 133rd ranked team) is more than 150 yards better than that! Somewhere, Johnathan Franklin is weeping. Nebraska on the other hand is 12th nationally in rushing defense, having just put on a clinic in stopping the run against one of the best teams in the country. I expect the Huskers to be able to completely shut down UCLA’s run game, making the Bruins one-dimensional and making it hard to move the ball at all. This is a matchup that favors the Blackshirts. If they show up like they did against Ohio State, they could flirt with a shutout. 

More Field Goals Please. You never quite know what to expect from Nebraska’s offense. While certain parts of the operation have shown promise this season, it’s been very inconsistent. Which means it would be really helpful if they can get three points when three points are there for the taking. It would be fun if this discussion was unnecessary because Nebraska was finishing drives and getting into the end zone, but that hasn’t been the case nearly often enough this season. Enter John Hohl. He came into the year as the backup kicker, and after an injury to starter Tristan Alvano, went 1 for his first 5 attempts. Then, seemingly out of nowhere, he made all three attempts against Ohio State, drilling two of those from more than 45 yards out. Hallelujah! Nebraska’s special teams play has been so inconsistent, it’s hard to know if we can count on the field goal unit to make kicks reliably moving forward. But Coach Rhule had previously commented that Hohl was making kicks in practice, and he made his coach look good this past Saturday. If Nebraska is going to win one or more of its final four games, making field goals has to be part of the equation. 

COMMON FAN KEYS TO VICTORY

Homeward Bound. Nebraska will play at home for the first time since the Rutgers game on October 5. I’m sure it’s a welcome sight for the boys in red, after back to back road losses to two of the nation’s best teams in Ohio State and Indiana. This UCLA game is critical to the Huskers’ chances of making a bowl game and having a successful season. Memorial Stadium has been electric all season long, and I expect it to be on fire on Saturday afternoon. You’ve had a couple weeks off, Common Fans. If the yard work and the home improvement projects aren’t completed by now, they’ll just have to wait. Let’s get down to the old stadium early, bring your best tailgating game, and get ready to get loud. 

Tailgate Time. Speaking of tailgates, the Common Fan Podcast is hosting one on Saturday. If you’re a regular listener to the podcast, or a regular reader, or just a fellow Husker-football-obsessed Common Fan, stop by and say hello. We’ll be in Lot 10, on W Street between 14th and 16th. We’d love to meet you and share in some Husker cheer before the Big Red takes down UCLA and we’re dancing in the streets to celebrate finally getting back to a bowl game.

As always, GBR for LIFE. 

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Stay up to date on all things Huskers by bookmarking Nebraska Cornhuskers On SI, subscribing to HuskerMax on YouTube, and visiting HuskerMax.com daily.

As the season enters its final stretch, Nebraska football finds itself in a familiar position, needing just one more win to become bowl eligible – a situation reminiscent of Matt Rhule’s first year. You probably already had enough reminders of how November of 2023 played out, so I won’t repeat it. In both his prior stops in college, Rhule entered November two games away from bowl eligibility in year two. He’s not a stranger to pressure. He won the fifth game the first week in November in both of those seasons. In a flair for the dramatic, he waited until the final game to reach win number six.

This weekend will be the Huskers’ best chance to get that sixth win. UCLA is a below average football team, but they’re coming off a bye after their best game of the season. They’ve played the toughest schedule in the nation so they’re no stranger to hard games. It’s still a game Nebraska should win if it can avoid turnovers and play a clean game on special teams.

The quarterback graph this week is an interesting one. Both players diverged early in the year, but their total EPA on the season is trending back together. UCLA’s Ethan Garbers threw a pick in every game of the season before posting a 4-0 touchdown to interception ratio against Rutgers. For the Huskers, Rutgers started a streak of three straight games where Dylan Raiola threw an interception.

I expect UCLA to get yards through the air against Nebraska. They’re 37th in the nation in passing success rate (a measure of how well a team stays ahead of the chains). Despite their ability to move the ball, they rank 84th in EPA/pass at -0.02. The Bruins throw an average of 1.3 interceptions per game, the highest rate in the Big Ten. This has significantly hampered their passing attack, which otherwise shows potential moving the ball.

This UCLA passing defense may be just what the doctor ordered for a Huskers offense looking to get going again. UCLA has faced the most pass attempts of any team in the Big Ten, allowed the most yards passing, the highest completion percentage, and the most touchdowns passing. While UCLA effectively limits explosive plays, they tend to be vulnerable to consistent, shorter gains. Raiola should be able to pass for 200 yards on a 70% completion rate against this defense.

UCLA is one of the worst teams in the nation at running the ball. They rank last nationally in both rushing yards and rushing touchdowns per game. QB Garbers is responsible for their longest run of the season at 49 yards. Their longest run by a running back is just 22 yards by the (not-pictured) Keegan Jones. Only Kennesaw State, in their first season of FBS football, has a worse rushing success rate than the Bruins. The Blackshirts should have a good day defending the run.

Nebraska running back Dante Dowdell played his best conference game against a stout Buckeye run defense last Saturday. Raiola also had a breakout performance on the ground, adding 31 yards rushing, helping the Huskers break the 100-yard mark for the second time against Big Ten opponents. UCLA has a good run defense that ranks 33rd in EPA/rush allowed this season.

UCLA is better than their 2-5 record would appear. They’ve played four teams in the current AP top 16 but lost all four of those games. Nebraska has also faced four currently ranked opponents managing a win over Colorado. I think the Huskers match up well with the Bruins. UCLA will likely get their yards against a bend-but-don’t-break defensive performance that creates a few big turnovers. Nebraska should carry over their confidence after a hard-fought game against Ohio State and go on to a comfortable victory to secure bowl eligibility.

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Stay up to date on all things Huskers by bookmarking Nebraska Cornhuskers On SI, subscribing to HuskerMax on YouTube, and visiting HuskerMax.com daily.