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Nebraska vs UTEP: The Start of Something Special

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Nebraska vs UTEP: The Start of Something Special


After persuading Dylan Raiola to switch his commitment from Georgia to Nebraska, all that’s left is to hang the banner in the Hawks Center to crown the Huskers the 2024 off-season champions.

With Raiola’s potential to shatter every Nebraska passing record and Rhule adding two new pass catchers, Jahmal Banks and Isaiah Neyor, the 2024 season looks promising. The return of Heinrich Haarberg, the 2023 leading passer, further adds depth to the offense. Whether he plays as a Taysom Hill-type gadget player or a Tim Tebow-esque goal-line QB, his presence will be felt. Nebraska gets an excellent opportunity to start its season on the right note against an opponent who hired a new coach.

Dylan Raiola throws a touchdown pass during the 2024 Nebraska football Red-White spring game.

Dylan Raiola throws a touchdown pass during the 2024 Nebraska football Red-White spring game. / Kenny Larabee, KLIN

I’ll frequently mention Expected Points Added (EPA), which is one stat I’ll cite in my pregame and post-game articles. For a given down, distance, and field position, both teams have a probability of scoring the next points in the game (the expected points). After the play, the teams have a new down, distance, and field position, resulting in a new expected points value. The difference in expected points before and after the play is Expected Points Added. This metric is stated with respect to the offense.

A positive EPA play has improved the offense’s chances of scoring the next points. A negative EPA play has improved the defense’s chance of scoring next. While assigning all the credit for EPA to the QB on a passing play isn’t perfect (after all, ten other players contributed to the play’s success), it does give us a way to rank the performance of skill position players against others in terms of who makes plays that contribute to winning.

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As soon as Dylan Raiola committed to Nebraska, it was presumed he would be the starter. He’s potentially a generational player who at least dresses like Patrick Mahomes and will hopefully play like him. Since he’s yet to play a college snap, the graph below shows Heinrich Haarberg’s 2023 cumulative season EPA. The total EPA graph is a running total of all plays where the QB ran the ball, passed the ball, or took a sack. If the line goes up, the QB was involved in a play that helped his team’s scoring chances. However, if the line goes down, that play hurts the team’s chances of scoring (and increases the opponent’s chances).

Total EPA by QB - UTEP vs. Nebraska. All QB plays 2023.

Total EPA by QB – UTEP vs. Nebraska. All QB plays 2023. /

UTEP’s Cade McConnell and Nebraska’s Heinrich Haarberg struggled in 2023, finishing with a negative EPA. This means that the total contributions during the season hindered scoring points. In 2024, I don’t expect this to be the case for Dylan Raiola. I predict he’ll finish the season with 3,000 yards passing and 30 touchdowns. Nine players in 2023 accomplished 3000 and 30, and four of the nine were taken in the first round of the 2024 NFL Draft. Hitting those benchmarks in his freshman season would clearly indicate his elite pedigree.

The carry distribution in the chart below goes beyond the simple “rushing average” statistic. A player with 10 carries each for 4 yards and a player with one carry for 35 yards and nine carries for 5 yards both have a rushing average of 4 YPC, but their distribution of carries would look widely different. The black vertical, dashed line represents carries of 0 yards. The two quarterbacks on the table have a significant peak of negative yards since sacks count against their rushing totals. The goldenrod vertical, dashed line represents carries of 10 yards (a first down). Emmet Johnson, for example, would consistently get positive yards but would rarely break big runs of 10+ yards.

Table by @arbitranalytics, Data from @cfbfastR, styling from cfbplotR and gtExtras

Table by @arbitranalytics, Data from @cfbfastR, styilng from cfbplotR and gtExtras /

In addition to being the Huskers leading passer in 2023, Heinrich Haarberg was the leading rusher. However, Haarberg’s rushing EPA was also negative, thanks to many sacks and negative carries. Fortunately, I expect fewer QB carries in 2024, but I could still see Haarberg getting some work as a power runner near the goal line. Emmett Johnson consistently had positive carries in 2023, while Gabe Ervin flashed some big play upside in limited availability.

UTEP doesn’t return much rushing production from its 2023 team after its top two rushers from last season entered the portal. The new head coach, Scotty Walden, brings in his leading rusher from 2023, Jevon Jackson, who rushed for 1300 yards at Austin Peay. He’s joined by TCU transfer Corey Wren, who also played at Florida State.

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This upcoming game is a crucial opportunity for Dylan Raiola to gain valuable experience in full-speed college football before the significant week two matchup with Colorado. I anticipate a comfortable win for Nebraska. My prediction for the season is a conservative 7-5 finish and a return to a bowl game. I expect Raiola to face some challenges as a freshman and make a few mistakes that might cost the Huskers a game or two; I also believe his natural talent will keep Nebraska competitive against even the most formidable opponents on the schedule.

MORE: Defending the Greatness of Nebraska Football

MORE: Lindsay Krause Shines in Husker Volleyball’s Season Opener Against No. 9 Kentucky

MORE: Carriker Chronicles: Tom Osborne on Year 2 of Nebraska Football Under Matt Rhule

MORE: No. 2 Nebraska Volleyball Grabs Season-Opening Win Over No. 9 Kentucky

MORE: Husker Doc Talk: The Season Starts! UTEP-Nebraska Football Preview

Stay up to date on all things Huskers by bookmarking Nebraska Cornhuskers On SI, following HuskerMax on X, and visiting HuskerMax.com daily.





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Red Flag Warnings in place as Nebraska faces dangerous fire conditions and record warmth

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Red Flag Warnings in place as Nebraska faces dangerous fire conditions and record warmth


LINCOLN, Neb. (KOLN) – Red Flag Warnings are in effect across Nebraska as dangerous fire conditions develop heading into the weekend, paired with unseasonably warm temperatures and strong winds that could quickly spread any flames.

Red Flag Warnings are in place for eastern Nebraska through 9 p.m. Friday night. The warning area expands significantly on Saturday, covering the entire state from throughout the entire day Saturday.

Friday: Moderate Fire Danger, Drying Trend

Friday’s fire concerns are lower than Saturday’s, but still significant. A Red Flag Warning remains in place for eastern Nebraska through 9 p.m. tonight as northerly winds pull in drier air throughout the afternoon. Dewpoints are expected to fall between 0° and 10° this evening as wind speeds taper.

The strongest winds and driest air won’t occur at the same time Friday, which is why confidence in Red Flag conditions is lower than normal today. By sunset, winds will become light and shift to the south as a surface high pressure system moves through the area.

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Red Flag Warnings are in place through 9 PM Friday for eastern Nebraska.(KOLN)

Saturday: Extreme Fire Danger

Saturday brings the most critical fire weather conditions of the period. The Red Flag Warning expands to encompass the entire state as relative humidity values plummet to 8-15% — dangerously dry levels that will allow fires to spread rapidly.

Winds will be the primary concern. Southerly winds are expected to be sustained between 20 and 30 MPH for most — with gusts between 40 and 50 MPH possible at times. These powerful winds combined with extreme dryness create a recipe for rapid fire spread.

Red Flag Warnings are in place across the state all day Saturday.
Red Flag Warnings are in place across the state all day Saturday.(KOLN)
Winds gusts could reach as high as 45 MPH into Saturday afternoon.
Winds gusts could reach as high as 45 MPH into Saturday afternoon.(KOLN)

Temperatures will warm into the 60s and low 70s on Saturday — warmer in the west — but the heat is secondary to the wind and dryness threat. Relative humidity values will fall below 30% as early as 9 a.m. when the Red Flag Warning begins.

Temperatures warm into the 60s and 70s on Saturday with strong southerly winds.
Temperatures warm into the 60s and 70s on Saturday with strong southerly winds.(KOLN)
Generally sunny skies are expected on Saturday with some passing clouds from time to time. No...
Generally sunny skies are expected on Saturday with some passing clouds from time to time. No moisture is expected.(KOLN)

Sunday: High Fire Danger, Lighter Winds

Fire danger remains high to very high Sunday as an upper ridge moves overhead. Temperatures will climb to the upper 70s to upper 80s. The good news: southerly winds won’t be as strong, with gusts peaking at only 20 mph. This provides some relief from the most critical conditions, though fire danger will still be elevated.

Highs will reach the upper 70s to upper 80s on Sunday.
Highs will reach the upper 70s to upper 80s on Sunday.(KOLN)

Record Heat Monday

Monday will be the week’s warmest day, with mid- to upper-80s and low 90s forecast across Nebraska. Records are within reach — for many areas across the state. Lincoln’s forecast high of 88 degrees would tie the 1917 record.

Highs reach into the upper 80s and low 90s on Monday.
Highs reach into the upper 80s and low 90s on Monday.(KOLN)
Record and near record high temperatures are expected again on Monday.
Record and near record high temperatures are expected again on Monday.(KOLN)

Pattern Change Ahead

A cold front will slice through the area Tuesday morning, bringing cooler and cloudier conditions back to Nebraska. Highs will fall back to the 50s and 60s — a dramatic 30+ degree temperature drop from Monday. Winds will remain gusty from the north.

Precipitation chances will increase by early to mid-week. Tuesday through Thursday will see low chances (~20%) for light precipitation, with a mixture of rain and snow possible at times. No winter impacts are expected. Better chances are forecast for Wednesday night and Friday night as a wholesale pattern change develops, bringing southwest flow and surface moisture back to the region.

Warming temperatures are expected into the weekend and early next week before cooler, wetter...
Warming temperatures are expected into the weekend and early next week before cooler, wetter weather is expected into next week.(KOLN)

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What Iowa coach Ben McCollum said after defeating Nebraska on Thursday

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What Iowa coach Ben McCollum said after defeating Nebraska on Thursday


Iowa coach Ben McCollum met with the media following his team’s 77-71 victory over the Nebraska Cornhuskers in the Sweet 16. The Cornhuskers led by three at the half but Iowa was able to outscore Nebraska 34-25 in the second half.

Pryce Sandfort led all scorers with 25 points while shooting 8 of 13 from the field and 6 of 10 from the 3-point line. Bennett Stirtz led the Hawkeyes with 20 points and played for all 40 minutes.

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Iowa shot 52% (27-52) from the floor, 43% (13-30) from beyond the arc and 83% (10-12) from the free throw line. Nebraska struggled shooting 41% (24-58) from the field, 34% (13-38) from the 3-point line and 91% (10-11) from the charity stripe.

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The Hawkeyes’ head coach acknowledged that his team had a poor start but a great finish and said that his team will need to play better to advance beyond the Elite Eight.

Yeah, I think to start we weren’t fantastic to start. They had an elite game plan to start. They played with elite pace. They adjusted their defense quite a bit. I think a lot of people will talk about the rivalry. I was around it when I was in Iowa, you know, and grew up in Iowa and understand the rivalry and whatnot. It’s nice to have — I guess if you would a call it rival that runs such a class program.

I think Coach Hoiberg, they have got great kids. They completely turned everything around from the previous season, and they have absolutely nothing to hang their heads about or anything. I have the utmost respect for them, all their players, and especially Coach Hoiberg. Heck of a season. I know it’s no consolation, but we still want to beat ’em every time and they want to beat us every time.

But from and internal perspective, there’s not a lot of bad blood there. It’s actually a lot of respect. I was really pleased with our second-half performance. I thought we actually decided we were going to try — not try. They had a lot to do with it, but kind of. Yeah, they’re smiling over there because they saw me break my marker.

And I thought our kids did a good job of executing offensively in both halves. We spent a lot of time trying to make sure that we could score, and you saw the result of that. We didn’t defend. But we were able to score, so we were able to stay in the game long enough and then get enough stops and had some big possessions down the stretch. Really good program win for everybody, coaches, managers, everybody included.

Iowa advances to the Elite Eight with the victory. Nebraska’s season ends with a record of 28-7.

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This article originally appeared on Cornhuskers Wire: What Iowa coach Ben McCollum said after defeating Nebraska on Thursday





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Nebraska Gov. Jim Pillen appoints Antonio Gomez to Racing and Gaming Commission

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Nebraska Gov. Jim Pillen appoints Antonio Gomez to Racing and Gaming Commission


Gov. Jim Pillen has appointed Antonio Gomez of Jackson to the Nebraska Racing and Gaming Commission, adding a longtime Siouxland business leader and public servant to the panel.

Commission members serve four-year terms and are subject to approval by the Nebraska Legislature.

Gomez launched Gomez Pallets in South Sioux City in 1983. He has since retired from daily operations, but last year the Siouxland Chamber of Commerce recognized him with the W. Edwards Deming Business Leadership and Entrepreneurial Excellence Award.

Gomez previously served on the Nebraska Commission on Latino Americans from 1981 to 2002. He also served as a Dakota County commissioner for 12 years and was on the Foundation Board for Northeast Community College.

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Gomez’s appointment is effective April 1.



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