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Analytics Review: Nebraska Football vs. Wisconsin

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Analytics Review: Nebraska Football vs. Wisconsin


It was an unseasonably nice afternoon in Memorial Stadium. And no, I’m not talking about temperatures in the high 50s for the final home game. In his second game as offensive coordinator, Dana Holgorsen’s offense exploded for arguably the Nebraska offense’s best game under Matt Rhule. Dylan Raiola played his best game, throwing for over 290 yards with no sacks and no turnovers. For the first time all season, I’d say the Huskers played well in all three phases of the game, and that was enough to send them bowling this December.

The story of this game was the Huskers offense. Emmett Johnson became Nebraska’s second 100-yard running back of the Matt Rhule era, joining Anthony Grant last season against Louisiana Tech. The Huskers had just two of their runs “stuffed” (a run for 0 or fewer yards) on their way to their second-best rushing output this season.

I was struck by the blocking effort in this game. Jahmal Banks held his block on the edge until Dante Dowdell crossed the goal line. Linemen were pulling and still blocking ten yards downfield, helping players fight for extra yards. That type of extra effort made this a special night for the offense.

Overall stat tables for Nebraska vs. Wisconsin.

Overall stat tables for Nebraska vs. Wisconsin. / Game On Paper

The Husker’s offense also dominated the control of the ball. The Nebraska offense was built on methodical drives. Even if you remove Nebraska’s two explosive plays, the Huskers offense still managed an EPA of 3.88. This was the first game all season where Nebraska’s non-explosive plays went for a positive EPA.   

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Special teams was also a big positive for the Huskers in this game. Nebraska’s special teams performed 12.5 points better than Wisconsin’s this game. This was just the second time this season that Nebraska’s special teams unit was a net positive (Ohio State, 2.86 EPA). John Hohl’s 14 points were the most by a kicker in the Matt Rhule era.

The defense still had its concerning moments this game. Wisconsin performed in the 90th percentile or better in many offensive statistics, including its seven explosive plays. These big plays are a cause for concern against Iowa, as the Wisconsin offense is one of the worst teams in the country in generating explosive plays, at just 5.8%. The Nebraska defense was stout on crucial plays, allowing just a 30% 3rd-down success rate and a 33% red zone success rate.

Biggest plays of the game, by absolute EPA.

Biggest plays of the game, by absolute EPA. / Game On Paper

Going into this game, Nebraska lost nine straight games after winning number five and ten consecutive games to Wisconsin. Many people on social media want to make fun of Nebraska fans for storming the field after getting to bowl eligibility. I’m happy these people can enjoy their laughs while they can. The Matt Rhule rebuild is running on schedule, and we all know what year three looks like for him.

Through 11 games, the Nebraska skill position group is the youngest in college football. The extra practice to build chemistry with each other and get more practice reps running Holgorsen’s offense is invaluable. The 2024 seniors won much less than most in Lincoln would’ve liked. But as they walked off the field for the final time, they put Nebraska football on a new trajectory.

MORE: Home Sweep Home: Nebraska Volleyball Dominates Wisconsin on Senior Night

MORE: Gallery: Nebraska Volleyball Sweeps Wisconsin on Senior Night

MORE: Gallery: Huskers Stun Wisconsin and Are Now Bowl Eligible

MORE: Tad Stryker: Breakthrough Day

MORE: I-80 Club After Dark: Party Like Its 2016

Stay up to date on all things Huskers by bookmarking Nebraska Cornhuskers On SI, subscribing to HuskerMax on YouTube, and visiting HuskerMax.com daily.

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Nebraska

Gallery: Nebraska Volleyball Sweeps Wisconsin on Senior Night

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Gallery: Nebraska Volleyball Sweeps Wisconsin on Senior Night


Nebraska and Wisconsin Volleyball have played a total of six sets against each other this season, all of which have been won by the Huskers. Seniors, Merritt Beason, Leyla Blackwell, Lindsay Krause, Kennadi Orr and Lexi Rodriguez were all celebrated for their contributions to the program after tonight’s win.

Lexi Rodriguez smiles during pre-game player introductions.

Lexi Rodriguez smiles during pre-game player introductions. / Amarillo Mullen
Rebekah Allick (5) celebrates her kill with Bergen Reilly (2).

Rebekah Allick (5) celebrates her kill with Bergen Reilly (2). / Amarillo Mullen
Andi Jackson (15) and Merritt Beason celebrate a double-stuff block.

Andi Jackson (15) and Merritt Beason celebrate a double-stuff block. / Amarillo Mullen
Taylor Landfair celebrates a Wisconsin touch for a Husker point.

Taylor Landfair celebrates a Wisconsin touch for a Husker point. / Amarillo Mullen
Justine Wong-Orantes (left) and Jordan Larson (right) are recognized for their silver medals at the 2024 Paris Olympics.

Justine Wong-Orantes (left) and Jordan Larson (right) are recognized for their silver medals at the 2024 Paris Olympics. / Amarillo Mullen
Bergen Reilly sets the ball.

Bergen Reilly sets the ball. / Amarillo Mullen
Laney Choboy celebrates a point for the Huskers.

Laney Choboy celebrates a point for the Huskers. / Amarillo Mullen
Rebekah Allick tallied 10 kills in Nebraska's win.

Rebekah Allick tallied 10 kills in Nebraska’s win. / Amarillo Mullen
The student section celebrates a point.

The student section celebrates a point. / Amarillo Mullen
The Huskers celebrate their three-set sweep over Wisconsin.

The Huskers celebrate their three-set sweep over Wisconsin. / Amarillo Mullen
Head coach, John Cook, hugs Merritt Beason during senior day introductions.

Head coach, John Cook, hugs Merritt Beason during senior day introductions. / Amarillo Mullen
Lexi Rodriguez (black) hugs a tearful Laney Choboy (left) and Harper Murray (right).

Lexi Rodriguez (black) hugs a tearful Laney Choboy (left) and Harper Murray (right). / Amarillo Mullen
Lexi Rodriguez waves to the fans at the Devaney Center.

Lexi Rodriguez waves to the fans at the Devaney Center. / Amarillo Mullen
The team meets on the court after their win.

The team meets on the court after their win. / Amarillo Mullen
The Nebraska Volleyball team poses with the this year's seniors.

The Nebraska Volleyball team poses with the this year’s seniors. / Amarillo Mullen



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Nebraska Football Leads Wisconsin 24-10 at Halftime

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Nebraska Football Leads Wisconsin 24-10 at Halftime


The Nebraska Cornhuskers are 30 minutes away from clinching bowl eligibility.

Nebraska leads Wisconsin 24-10 at halftime. The winner of this game will get to a sixth win on the season and become bowl eligible.

The Huskers got a kickoff return to midfield to open the game. That turned into a short field, and, eventually, a touchdown run by Heinrich Haarberg.

Wisconsin answered with a touchdown drive, but the Badgers struggled offensively the rest of the half, adding just one field goal. Wisconsin missed two other field goals.

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Nebraska added touchdowns from Dante Dowdell and Jahmal Banks. After the Banks touchdown with 17 seconds to go, Wisconsin fumbled on the first play to give Nebraska a chance to score again. John Hohl drilled the 37-yard field goal to send the Big Red into the half with the lead.

NU has 237 total yards to UW’s 205. The Huskers have a two-yard advantage in passing and a 78-48 lead in rushing yards.

Nebraska quarterback Dylan Raiola is 17-for-22 passing. Emmett Johnson is leading the ground attack with 51 yards on eight carries.

Wisconsin will have the ball to begin the second half.

Nebraska Athletics Notes

MORE: I-80 Club: Has Nebraska Football Jumped the Shark?

MORE: After Nebrasketball: Nebraska Beats No. 14 Creighton

MORE: Red State: Nebrasketball Upsets No. 14 Creighton in Omaha, 74-63

MORE: Blue State: Creighton Women’s Basketball Upends No. 21 Nebraska, 80-74

Stay up to date on all things Huskers by bookmarking Nebraska Cornhuskers On SI, subscribing to HuskerMax on YouTube, and visiting HuskerMax.com daily.

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All-Out Blitz Week 13: Wisconsin Badgers vs. Nebraska Cornhuskers

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All-Out Blitz Week 13: Wisconsin Badgers vs. Nebraska Cornhuskers


All-Out Blitz Week 13: Wisconsin Badgers vs. Nebraska Cornhuskers

BadgerBlitz.com brings back its All-Out Blitz weekly series for the 2024 season, where you can find everything you need to know about Wisconsin’s upcoming opponent. We look at UW’s tenth opponent in the Nebraska Cornhuskers, who the Badgers will travel to play Saturday afternoon in Lincoln at 2:30 p.m. on BTN.

QUICK PROGRAM FACTS

Head Coach: Matt Rhule (57-55 career record, second season at Nebraska)

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Nebraska All Time Record: 887-404-38 (.667)

2024 Record: 5-5 (2-5 Big Ten)

Rankings: N/A

Series vs. Wisconsin: 4-13

WHEN NEBRASKA HAS THE FOOTBALL

COMPARING THE PROJECTED STARTERS

Nebraska’s gradual decline over the course of this season is parallel with the decline of their offense.

Through the first five games, in which the team began 4-1, the offense averaged 405.4 yards per game. Over the last five, the 1-4 Cornhuskers are averaging just 294 yards per game.

This prompted the demoting of offensive coordinator Marcus Satterfield, and promotion of Dana Holgorsen, prior to last week’s loss to USC.

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It was the hope that Holgorsen, a former disciple of Mike Leach, could reinvigorate freshman quarterback Dylan Raiola.

It’s hard to tell if the former No. 1 quarterback in the 2024 class is responsible for the offense’s drop-off, or merely a victim of it, but all we know is that his season has fallen off of a cliff.

Through the first five games, he threw for nine touchdowns and two interceptions while completing 70% of his passes. In the five games since, he’s down to two touchdowns and eight interceptions, completing just 60% of his passes.

Raiola hasn’t received much help from his receiving core. He never had a true No. 1 receiver, even when the offense looked good, and nobody is stepping up now. No Husker receiver has reached 100 yards in a game since the season opener against UTEP.

They added two starters via the transfer portal — Isaiah Neyor (Texas) and Jahmal Banks (Wake Forest) — but both have been solid at best.

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Wisconsin’s pass defense, which has only improved as the season has gone on, should create problems for Raiola and co.

They held Oregon quarterback Dillon Gabriel without a touchdown for the first time all season in what felt like a triumphant defensive performance, despite the 16-13 loss.

Beyond the strong coverage of cornerbacks Ricardo Hallman and Nyzier Fourqurean, what was most impressive about Wisconsin’s defense was how their line was able to generate consistent pressure on Gabriel.

It’ll be key for the Badgers to shut down Nebraska’s passing attack, because their running game isn’t particularly dangerous.

They rotate between three backs on a regular basis, led by Dante Dowdell, who averages a team-high 12 carries per game. Sophomore Emmett Johnson received more carries than Dowdell in the most recent outing against USC and could be ascending up the depth chart. Regardless, no Nebraska back has been a consistent threat.

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WHEN WISCONSIN HAS THE BALL

COMPARING THE PROJECTED STARTERS

This will be the first game Wisconsin plays since offensive coordinator Phil Longo was fired on Sunday.

Fickell wasn’t willing to name a replacement play caller, instead alluding to a “collaborative” operation.

However that turns out, it must lead to some sort of reinvigoration. Over Wisconsin’s three-game losing streak, the offense is averaging just 261.6 total yards per game.

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The offensive incompetence was especially frustrating against Oregon, a game in which the defense had their best performance of the season.

The offense needs to go back to basics. All season, they’ve been at their best when the offensive line opens up running lanes and allows for a balanced game plan.

Running back Tawee Walker struggled mightily against Penn State and Iowa, rushing for just 111 yards over those two games, but rebounded with a 97-yard performance last week against Oregon.

The front line will have a tough matchup against Nebraska’s defensive line trio of Ty Robinson, Jamari Butler and Nash Hutmacher, who lead the 20th-ranked rushing defense in the nation.

The production of Wisconsin’s running game will be key, because they simply can’t rely on quarterback Braedyn Locke, who’s coming off of a 96-yard passing performance against Oregon. He’s thrown an interception in all seven of his starts this season, bringing his season touchdown-interception ratio to 9-9.

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Locke will try to take advantage of a Nebraska secondary that suffered a crushing blow earlier this week, with the announcement that Tommi Hill would miss the rest of the season due to a foot injury.

The best starter besides Hill is Malcolm Herzog, the team leader in interception (four) who primarily plays in the slot. Although the biggest priority for Wisconsin will be safety Isaac Gifford, who leads the team in tackles with 59 and can manage to fly all over the field.

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