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Analytics Preview: Nebraska Football vs. UCLA

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Analytics Preview: Nebraska Football vs. UCLA


As the season enters its final stretch, Nebraska football finds itself in a familiar position, needing just one more win to become bowl eligible – a situation reminiscent of Matt Rhule’s first year. You probably already had enough reminders of how November of 2023 played out, so I won’t repeat it. In both his prior stops in college, Rhule entered November two games away from bowl eligibility in year two. He’s not a stranger to pressure. He won the fifth game the first week in November in both of those seasons. In a flair for the dramatic, he waited until the final game to reach win number six.

This weekend will be the Huskers’ best chance to get that sixth win. UCLA is a below average football team, but they’re coming off a bye after their best game of the season. They’ve played the toughest schedule in the nation so they’re no stranger to hard games. It’s still a game Nebraska should win if it can avoid turnovers and play a clean game on special teams.

The quarterback graph this week is an interesting one. Both players diverged early in the year, but their total EPA on the season is trending back together. UCLA’s Ethan Garbers threw a pick in every game of the season before posting a 4-0 touchdown to interception ratio against Rutgers. For the Huskers, Rutgers started a streak of three straight games where Dylan Raiola threw an interception.

I expect UCLA to get yards through the air against Nebraska. They’re 37th in the nation in passing success rate (a measure of how well a team stays ahead of the chains). Despite their ability to move the ball, they rank 84th in EPA/pass at -0.02. The Bruins throw an average of 1.3 interceptions per game, the highest rate in the Big Ten. This has significantly hampered their passing attack, which otherwise shows potential moving the ball.

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Nebraska and UCLA passing chart.

Nebraska and UCLA passing chart. / Arbitrary Analytics

This UCLA passing defense may be just what the doctor ordered for a Huskers offense looking to get going again. UCLA has faced the most pass attempts of any team in the Big Ten, allowed the most yards passing, the highest completion percentage, and the most touchdowns passing. While UCLA effectively limits explosive plays, they tend to be vulnerable to consistent, shorter gains. Raiola should be able to pass for 200 yards on a 70% completion rate against this defense.

UCLA is one of the worst teams in the nation at running the ball. They rank last nationally in both rushing yards and rushing touchdowns per game. QB Garbers is responsible for their longest run of the season at 49 yards. Their longest run by a running back is just 22 yards by the (not-pictured) Keegan Jones. Only Kennesaw State, in their first season of FBS football, has a worse rushing success rate than the Bruins. The Blackshirts should have a good day defending the run.

Nebraska vs. UCLA rushing table.

Nebraska vs. UCLA rushing table. / Arbitrary Analytics

Nebraska running back Dante Dowdell played his best conference game against a stout Buckeye run defense last Saturday. Raiola also had a breakout performance on the ground, adding 31 yards rushing, helping the Huskers break the 100-yard mark for the second time against Big Ten opponents. UCLA has a good run defense that ranks 33rd in EPA/rush allowed this season.

UCLA is better than their 2-5 record would appear. They’ve played four teams in the current AP top 16 but lost all four of those games. Nebraska has also faced four currently ranked opponents managing a win over Colorado. I think the Huskers match up well with the Bruins. UCLA will likely get their yards against a bend-but-don’t-break defensive performance that creates a few big turnovers. Nebraska should carry over their confidence after a hard-fought game against Ohio State and go on to a comfortable victory to secure bowl eligibility.

MORE: Doc’s Diagnosis: A Look at Some Strengths of UCLA, Nebraska Football’s Next Opponent

MORE: Dylan Raiola Says Criticism of OC Marcus Satterfield is ‘Unfair’

MORE: Nebraska Expecting to Face a UCLA Squad That’s Much Better Than Advertised

MORE: College Football Analyst Praises Nebraska’s ‘Cultural Shift’ With Matt Rhule

MORE: Big Ten Head Coach Hot Seat Index After Week 9

Stay up to date on all things Huskers by bookmarking Nebraska Cornhuskers On SI, subscribing to HuskerMax on YouTube, and visiting HuskerMax.com daily.

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Nebraska

Walt Radcliffe's friends say lobbyist was part of State Capitol’s ‘fabric' • Nebraska Examiner

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Walt Radcliffe's friends say lobbyist was part of State Capitol’s ‘fabric' • Nebraska Examiner


LINCOLN — It was 1979, and a college freshman was searching the State Capitol for lobbyist Walt Radcliffe, who was scheduled to speak to young leaders from the University of Nebraska-Lincoln.

Eventually, the freshman, Scott Moore, caught up with Radcliffe, who posed a profane question to the student that was something like, “What the heck am I supposed to say to these kids?”

“I knew right then that this was someone I was going to like,” said Moore, who went on to become a state senator, Nebraska Secretary of State and later, a top executive at Union Pacific.

Stories like that, and many more, circulated across the state as word spread about the death of Radcliffe, 77, on Thursday afternoon.

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Work spanned 10 governors

A Lincoln native whose work spanned 10 governors, Radcliffe was the undisputed dean of the statehouse lobbying corps. He had his own padded bench in the Capitol Rotunda.

His firm, Radcliffe Gilbertson & Brady, annually ranked among the state’s top in annual revenue.

Patrick O’Donnell, the longtime clerk of the Nebraska Legislature, retired at the end of 2022. (Courtesy of the Clerk of the Legislature’s Office)

He also served as a valuable — and engaging — font of institutional knowledge about the Legislature for lawmakers and governors as such knowledge was disappearing due to term limits.

His storytelling was legendary, as were his counsel and history lessons for lawmakers and others.

“He really cared about the institution,” said Patrick O’Donnell, the former clerk of the Legislature and a long-time friend who met Radcliffe in a UNL fraternity. “The Legislature had a big loss today.”

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“Nobody knew the legislative process better than him,” said Lynn Rex, executive director League of Nebraska Municipalities. She said Radcliffe was a mentor to her and many other lobbyists.

Former State Sen. John Stinner, who chaired the budget-writing Appropriations Committee, said Radcliffe once gave him valuable advice on how to tap into a state health care fund to help close a monumental $1 billion shortfall in the budget.

“He was extremely helpful in many instances,” Stinner said. “I’m going to miss him.”

Part of the place

U.S. Rep. Mike Flood, R-Neb., a former speaker of the Legislature, said “people probably think we were too close to Walt as a lobbyist.”

U.S. Rep. Mike Flood of Norfolk speaks to reporters on Sept. 15, 2024. (Zach Wendling/Nebraska Examiner)

“But he was bigger than a lobbyist,” Flood said. “He was just part of the fabric of the Legislature.”

A graduate of UNL and the NU College of Law, Radcliffe liked to point out that he worked only a couple of miles from where he grew up.

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His first jobs at the Capitol were as a legislative page and a proofreader. He later served as an assistant clerk of the Legislature and as legal counsel to the Judiciary and Banking Committees, and as chief legal counsel in the clerk’s office.

Radcliffe’s lobbying career began in 1977 as a partner with former State Sen. David Tews. He purchased the firm a couple of years later, which became Radcliffe and Associates before the latest name change.

He continued to lobby this spring, though his trips to his bench — which for a time had its own Twitter account — became less frequent.

“He was a people person. That job was his lifeblood,” said Korby Gilbertson, a long-time associate at the firm. “We always knew he’d work until he couldn’t, because that’s what he did.”

Known for NU advocacy

His firm long represented the University of Nebraska, fighting for its programs and funding. But Radcliffe also represented liquor, tobacco and gambling clients because, Gilbertson said, he “wasn’t afraid of a good battle.”

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University of Nebraska at Omaha students walk on campus in September 2024. (Cindy Gonzalez/Nebraska Examiner)

In addition, Radcliffe also lobbied free-of-charge for entities opposed to the death penalty, and, his friends said, was genuinely interested in helping the state, and its institutions, do well.

Moore said that Radcliffe’s greatest skill as a lobbyist was his ability to boil down complicated subjects into simple terms. He worked long hours and was a good listener and storyteller, he said, who didn’t seek to “poach” clients from other lobbyists and was very clear where his clients stood.

”He was a man of integrity,” Moore said. “That’s why people respected him, and why he got so many things passed.”

Former Gov. Dave Heineman described Radcliffe as “very professional, very knowledgeable and a very straightforward lobbyist.”

“I enjoyed working with him,” Heineman said.

Petition work got him in trouble

Radcliffe briefly got in trouble in 1986, when he was indicted for hiring and paying petition circulators seeking to get an issue on the statewide ballot to allow a state lottery. But the charge was dismissed on appeal. Paying petition circulators is now legal and commonplace in the state.

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Person signs petition
A Nebraskan signs a petition for a ballot initiative. (Courtesy of Rebecca S. Gratz)

Radcliffe received a liver transplant in 1999, but in recent years battled other health issues. Gilbertson said he entered hospice care on Thursday morning after battling an infection for several days. He died hours later from kidney failure and other health issues.

Flood said he spent many hours in Radcliffe’s office across the street from the Capitol as a young state senator and later as speaker, listening and learning about past lawmakers and speakers.

“It wasn’t like he was telling me what to do in a certain situation, but he’d say, ‘We had this same problem, and this is what a past speaker did,’ and how it worked or didn’t work,” Flood said.

“While he was an advocate, he wanted the Legislature to look good, too.”

Funeral arrangements are pending.

YOU MAKE OUR WORK POSSIBLE.

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Husker Football: NU Lucked Out With The Pinstripe Bowl

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Husker Football: NU Lucked Out With The Pinstripe Bowl


At first, Nebraska playing in a bowl in late December in New York City sounded  like a form of punishment rather than a reward for a successful season.

It’s true, playing in a balmy Florida, Arizona or California might be more appealing.   But consider this:  NU is playing  at noon this Saturday.  That’s great day and time for a college football game.

As a result, I believe a lot of people are going to be able to watch the game. TV viewers aren’t going to care a rip about the cold.  Most football fans think forty degrees is ideal football weather.  

Playing in Florida does have some advantages, but three early bowl games that were played in Florida weren’t seen by many people. Why?

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Bad dates and times.

Boca Raton Bowl (Boca Raton, FL)
Wednesday, December 18th 5:30pm (EST)  
Western Kentucky vs James Madison 

Staffdna Cure Bowl (Orlando, FL)
Friday, December 20th 12:00pm (EST)
Ohio vs Jackson State

Union Home Mortgage Gasparilla Bowl (Tampa, FL)
Friday December 20th 3:30 pm (EST)
Tulane vs Florida

Raise your hands if you watched any of those games.

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I didn’t think so.

My point is, playing in a cold clime in late December is not necessarily a bad thing.  The Pinstripe Bowl matchup between Nebraska and Boston College should be a TV ratings success.

The Pinstripe Bowl Matchup

To win the game, NU is going to have to:

1.)  Stop the Eagles’ running game and make them one dimensional,

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2.)  Move the chains consistently on offense.

3.)  Be able to pass on BC’s defense (BC is 111th pass defense)

4.)  Win the turnover battle (NU ranks 66th while BC is 21st)

If the Huskers are able to do those things, they will come back to Lincoln with another bowl trophy to add to its collection.

What’s a stake:  Win the game and NU ends the season with a winning record-its first since 2016.  Lose the game and NU limps into ’25 with a 6-7 record. 

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You may contact me at:  HuskerDan@cox.net

MORE: Analytics Preview: Nebraska Football vs. Boston College in the Pinstripe Bowl

MORE: 1962 Co-Captain, Gotham Bowl Veteran Dwain Carlson Joins the Common Fans

MORE: Nebrasketball Beats Oregon State, Wins Diamond Head Classic

MORE: Idaho Transfer Defensive Back Andrew Marshall Commits to Nebraska

MORE: Former NFL Running Back Leonard Fournette Shares Praise for Nebraska Quarterback Dylan Raiola

Stay up to date on all things Huskers by bookmarking Nebraska Cornhuskers On SI, subscribing to HuskerMax on YouTube, and visiting HuskerMax.com daily.



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Nebraska governor to undergo rib surgery after horse-riding incident – Washington Examiner

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Nebraska governor to undergo rib surgery after horse-riding incident – Washington Examiner


Gov. Jim Pillen (R-NE) will undergo a rib fixation procedure on Thursday after a horse bucked him off on Sunday.

Pillen, 68, will need to be under anesthesia while doctors install metal plates to stabilize his seven broken ribs. Lt. Gov. Joe Kelly will take on the role of acting governor during the surgery.

“Based on the Governor’s health profile and active lifestyle, his doctors consider him an ideal candidate for this procedure. Nebraska Medicine has emerged as a national leader in rib fixation operations,” the governor’s office wrote in a statement.

The governor was riding a new horse with his daughter, son-in-law, and granddaughter when he fell. In addition to his rib fractures, he suffered a partially collapsed lung, lacerations on his spleen and kidney, and a minor vertebrae fracture.

CLICK HERE TO READ MORE FROM THE WASHINGTON EXAMINER

“Gov. Pillen remains grateful for the exceptional care he is receiving by the team at Nebraska Medicine and thanks Nebraskans for their outpouring of support to him and his family during this time,” Pillen’s office wrote.

This surgery will result in Pillen remaining in the hospital for a few days following his surgery. He is prepared to continue to work from his hospital bed.

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