The Minnesota Twins (54-42) welcome the Milwaukee Brewers (55-42) to Target Field Saturday for the 1st of a 2-game series. First pitch is set for 7:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze FanDuel Sportsbook’s lines around the Brewers vs. Twins odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Season series: Tied 1-1
The Twins went into the All-Star break having won 5 of their last 8 games. They did lose 2 of 3 to the San Francisco Giants in the series prior and dropped the final game of that stint 3-2 Sunday. Minnesota is 27-18 at home and has won 4 of its last 6 at home. It is 45-51 against the spread (ATS) on the season.
The Brewers won their final game before the break 9-3 against the Washington Nationals Sunday, snapping a 3-game win streak. Despite that, they still sit atop the NL Central and are above .500 at 26-25 on the road. Milwaukee is 3-7 over its last 10 games and and 1-3 in its last 4 on the road. The Brewers are 52-45 ATS on the season.
Brewers at Twins projected starters
RHP Freddy Peralta vs. RHP Pablo Lopez
Peralta (6-5, 4.11 ERA) makes his 20th start. He has a 1.19 WHIP, 3.1 BB/9 and 11.4 K/9 through 103 innings.
- Last start: Loss, 5 IP, 4 ER, 10 H, 0 BB, 6 K in 5-2 home loss to the Washington Nationals July 12
- 2024 away splits: 3-3, 3.74 ERA (53 IP, 22 ER), 1.26 WHIP, 7 HR, 10.9 K/9 in 10 starts
- Career vs. Twins: 0-0, 4.15 ERA (13 IP, 6 ER), 1.54 WHIP, 15.9 K/9 in 5 appearances (1 start)
Lopez (8-7, 5.11 ERA) makes his 20th start. He has a 1.18 WHIP, 2.0 BB/9 and 10.5 K/9 through 104 innings.
- Last start: No-decision, 5 IP, 2 ER, 4 H, 1 BB, 5 K in 3-2 road win over the Chicago White Sox July 10
- 2024 home splits: 3-4, 5.74 ERA (47 IP, 30 ER), 1.36 WHIP, 7 HR, 9.4 K/9 in 9 starts
- Career vs. Brewers: 1-1, 3.41 ERA (37 IP, 14 ER), 0.95 WHIP, 10.2 K/9 in 6 starts
Who’s going yard? Here’s a breakdown of today’s best home run props with our top picks. Include the BetMGM bonus code SBWIRE to score a $1,500 first-bet offer.
Brewers at Twins odds
Provided by FanDuel Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 9:05 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Brewers +106 (bet $100 to win $106) | Twins -124 (bet $124 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Brewers -1.5 (+168) | Twins +1.5 (-205)
- Over/Under (O/U): 7.5 (O: -115 | U: -105)
Brewers at Twins picks and predictions
Prediction
Brewers 5, Twins 3
Moneyline
BET BREWERS (+106).
The Brewers are 12-7 when Peralta takes the mound and are 6-4 when he is their starting option in road games. As for Lopez, the Twins are 11-8 when he starts and 2-3 in his last 5 home starts. The Twins also are just 21-20 following a loss while the Brewers are 29-25 following a win.
Minnesota’s offense has had too many issues lately as well, scoring 3 or fewer in 4 of its last 5 games. Meanwhile, the Brewers totaled 14 in their last 2 before the break. Put it all together and back BREWERS (+106).
Run line/Against the spread
PASS.
The Brewers as a run-line favorite are too risky here to take, especially given their moneyline odds. The Twins, especially as an expensive run-line underdog, aren’t worth a run-line play either.
Over/Under
BET OVER 7.5 (-115).
The Brewers have scored 9 or more in 3 of their last 7 games and have gone Over the projected total in 5 of those.
Milwaukee has been hot for most of the season, having a 52-40-4 O/U record on the year. The Twins, who are 47-47-2 O/U, have struggled offensively but are still 8-5 O/U in their last 13 games.
Considering those trends, back OVER 7.5 (-115).
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