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Paul Gross: Here’s my official Michigan winter outlook — snow, cold expectations

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Paul Gross: Here’s my official Michigan winter outlook — snow, cold expectations


The query often begins coming in through the summer time, with an increasing number of folks asking as we transfer by way of September and October.

By the point we get to November, EVERYBODY needs to know: what sort of winter is on the best way?

Earlier than answering that query, there’s something crucial you have to perceive: the massive distinction between a forecast and a seasonal outlook.

A forecast is a selected prediction of a selected climate occasion or occasions over the close to time period. For instance, if I’m anticipating accumulating snow a couple of days from now, then what I let you know about that occasion is a forecast. Or, let’s say I anticipate sunny skies every day subsequent week, that’s one other forecast.

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I can’t forecast particular day-to-day climate a season forward of time. NO meteorologist can. So sure, these particular forecasts you see within the Farmers’ Almanac a yr forward of time are a bunch of hooey (see my article about that right here). Slightly, we meteorologists clarify our longer time frame predictions by way of the anticipated traits relative to long-term averages; i.e., above or under common temperature and precipitation.

And right here’s one thing else to recollect: simply because an outlook says that we’ll, for instance, be colder than common for December by way of February doesn’t imply will probably be chilly for your complete winter. Keep in mind that this can be a three-month common. So, let’s say you will have a chilly December, a light January, and a chilly February, you then doubtless will find yourself with a below-average winter, though you had hotter temps in January. Or, let’s say you will have a barely colder than common December, a well-above common January, then a barely colder than common February…you may find yourself with a barely hotter than common three-month interval from December to February, though two of these months have been cooler than common.

Okay, so how do I develop my winter outlook? Nicely, it begins and ends with the jet stream: that band of strongest wind aloft that flows across the planet. The jet stream just isn’t solely the dividing line between usually hotter air to the south and colder air to the north, however it is usually the final storm observe. In order many issues as attainable that affect our jet stream sample must be thought of.

Crucial of these “issues” are El Nino and La Nina (the cycle involving these two known as El Nino–Southern Oscillation, or ENSO). Briefly, El Nino is an eastward push of heat tropical Pacific Ocean waters that pool off the west coast of South America. La Nina is a reversal of this sample, and people heat waters are pushed westward, leaving the japanese tropical Atlantic cooler than common. There’s a large interplay between the oceans and the environment, so El Ninos and La Ninas dramatically have an effect on the winter jet stream sample throughout North America. I additionally tracked various different circulation patterns, such because the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), the Arctic Oscillation (AO), and many others. These patterns undergo what we name optimistic and detrimental phases. For instance, optimistic phases of the NAO and AO usually convey hotter air into the japanese U.S., whereas detrimental phases development the japanese U.S. colder.

One thing else I’ve realized to think about is the extent of Eurasian snow cowl and Arctic sea ice, Dr. Judah Cohen at Verisk has taught me lots about this (you can follow him on Twitter, too).

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Alright, so now that you just perceive all of this (and when you skipped the above simply to get to this half, you’d higher return and skim it), let’s dive into what I anticipate for this coming winter.

What Metro Detroit can anticipate through the 2022-2023 winter season

Since we’ll have our third consecutive winter with La Nina situations within the Pacific, all of it begins there, and I’m already seeing some consistencies with the previous two winters, which had some fairly wild temperature fluctuations. For instance, January 2021 was 4.1 levels above common, whereas February 2021 was 4.5 levels under common. This previous winter, December 2021 was a whopping 6.2 levels above common (our eighth warmest December on report), adopted by a 5.2 diploma under common January.

That’s critical climate whiplash, and I see no purpose to deviate from this for the upcoming winter. Clearly, I can’t specify which components of which months will essentially go which approach, however I really feel that we’ll undergo prolonged stretches of each hotter and colder temperatures, versus the extra typical fluctuations we get.

As for precipitation, I’m leaning strongly towards a wetter than regular winter. However will it’s rain or snow? That relies upon upon that jet stream place, which can direct storms both south or west of us. West means hotter and rain. South means colder and snow or ice. And as with the temperatures mentioned above, the final two La Nina-winters exhibited some fairly loopy swings, similar to a paltry 6.4 inches of snow in January 2021, adopted by 21.8 inches the subsequent month.

In actual fact, the identical factor occurred this previous winter, with 8.8 inches in January, then 20.4 inches in February. I really feel that this upcoming winter will exhibit close to common complete snowfall (our seasonal common is 45 inches), however a lot of it coming in shorter stretches of very unsettled climate (similar to final winter, when a bit of below half of our winter snow got here in only a three week stretch in February). Meaning there will even be some good lengthy reprieves from the snow as properly. I feel we’ll additionally see extra rain than we sometimes get in winter and doubtless one or two stable ice storms.

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Right here’s a have a look at how I personally observe a few of the circulation patterns mentioned on this article. (WDIV)

Answering the age-old query: Do I pay my snowplow man by the plow or by the season? ❄

I’ve the identical reply to this query virtually yearly, and I like to recommend paying by the season. Contemplate your snowplow service as if it’s life insurance coverage. You’re very joyful to not want it however are darn glad it’s there when you do. For those who pay by the plow, and we find yourself with a winter with numerous snowstorms, you’ll be paying your man some huge cash.

Conversely, when you pay by the season, your prices are mounted upfront it doesn’t matter what occurs this winter, and you’ll simply funds for that.

Copyright 2022 by WDIV ClickOnDetroit – All rights reserved.





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Ryan Walters Emotional in Postgame Presser Following Purdue’s Loss to Michigan State

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Ryan Walters Emotional in Postgame Presser Following Purdue’s Loss to Michigan State


Ryan Walters cleared his throat and took a long pause before answering a question after Purdue’s 24-17 loss to Michigan State on Friday night. The second-year coach was clearly emotional after the Boilermakers fell to 1-10, letting another opportunity slip through their fingers.

Following another disappointing outcome at Spartan Stadium, Walters was asked why it was more difficult to keep his emotions in check on Friday night.

After taking a few seconds to collect his thoughts, Walters answered the question.

“I don’t know a locker room in the country that would be 1-9, going down like we went down in the first half and continue to fight,” he said. “There’s no finger-pointing. They’ve still been practicing their tails off. They’ve still been showing up and going to work every day.

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“If you have kids — I don’t know if you have any kids — when your kids work hard, you want them to have success. They’re working hard, man. It hurts.”

Purdue dug itself into a hole early, trailing Michigan State 24-3 at halftime. It looked like the Spartans were going to cruise to a victory and that the Boilermakers were going to roll over and play dead.

Instead, Purdue came out of halftime showing serious fight. They scratched and clawed their way back into the game, cutting the lead to 24-17 with 13:54 remaining in the game.

“Going into halftime, it felt like the game was getting away from us and the guys in the locker room, it just didn’t seem like they flinched,” Walters said.

Purdue had three more opportunities to tie the game, but failed to take advantage. Numerous dropped passes, a struggling rushing attack and an interception proved too costly in the last three possessions.

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It marked the third time this season Purdue had found itself with a chance to get its first Big Ten win but came up short. The Boilermakers also dropped overtime contests to Northwestern and Illinois.

Now, there’s just one game remaining on the schedule: at No. 5 Indiana. Purdue is 1-10 and remains winless in Big Ten play. As much as the blowout losses have stung, night’s like Friday have been even more difficult to handle for Walters and the Boilers.

They’ve come close multiple times this year, but haven’t been able to clear the hurdle.

PURDUE ATTENDANCE AT 20-YEAR HIGH: Despite Purdue’s struggles on the field this season, fans still flocked to Ross-Ade Stadium on Saturdays to watch Boilermaker football. CLICK HERE



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WATCH: Everything Michigan State’s Jonathan Smith Said After Spartans’ Victory Over Purdue

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WATCH: Everything Michigan State’s Jonathan Smith Said After Spartans’ Victory Over Purdue


EAST LANSING, Mich. — Michigan State finally picked up a win, its first one since Week 8 when it defeated Iowa at home.

While it may seem like the Spartans’ season has been on a decline, even with this win, Michigan State is still just a win away from earning a trip to a bowl game.

Michigan State coach Jonathan Smith discussed Friday’s win when he addressed the media after the game.

You can watch below:

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Below is a transcript from Smith’s opening statement:

Smith: “OK, well, obviously pleased to find a way to win a game. Kind of a tale of two halves; all of you that watched it offensively, defensively, first half, really pleased. I think we had four possessions in the first half. Had points on all four of them. Ended the ended the half with some points; we were feeling good there, but then it totally flipped in the second half. Credit to Purdue, whether it’s adjustments, things like that, but those guys battled for four quarters. And credit some to our defense, too. Early second half, we had gave up a couple of scores there but found a way [in the] fourth quarter to tighten things down, and to give up 17 points and have two turnovers defensively, that’s a solid effort. Offensively, again we got to play for four quarters. And we want to do that better. But found a way to win a game, got another open game with a lot to play for next week.”

Don’t forget to follow the official Spartan Nation Page on Facebook Spartan Nation WHEN YOU CLICK RIGHT HERE, and be a part of our vibrant community group Go Green Go White as well WHEN YOU CLICK RIGHT HERE.



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Top Michigan in-state recruits of all time and how their careers went

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Top Michigan in-state recruits of all time and how their careers went


The Michigan Wolverines locked up the highest recruit in Michigan football history on Thursday evening with the commitment of five-star quarterback Bryce Underwood. He carries a ton of accolades to Ann Arbor, including the highest rated recruit in the state of Michigan’s football history on 247Sports.

From Benny Friedman, to Anthony Carter, to Brandon Graham and Aidan Hutchinson, there is a long list of Michigan football legends that came from the state of Michigan. As Underwood gets settled into Ann Arbor in the near future, we take a look at some of the top Michigan in-state recruits of all time and how their careers went.

1. Charles Rogers – WR – Class of 2000

Before Underwood, the top-rated high school player to come out of the state of Michigan was wide receiver Charles Rogers. Rogers went to Saginaw High School and had a 0.9988 rating.

Rogers went to Michigan State and cemented himself as one of the best college wide receivers of all time. From 2000-02, Rogers broke the school record for most touchdowns in a career with 27, breaking the record held by former Spartans wide receiver and baseball legend Kirk Gibson, as well as the school record for most receiving yards in a single game with 270. He also broke Randy Moss’ NCAA record of 13 consecutive games with a touchdown catch

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During Rogers’ junior season, he put up 1,351 yards and 13 touchdowns, winning the Biletnikoff Award and Paul Warfield Trophy as the season’s outstanding college football receiver. He was a unanimous All-American.

The Detroit Lions drafted Rogers No. 2 overall in the 2003 NFL Draft. While his NFL career was known by many as an extreme let-down, Rogers will forever be remembered as an all-time great Spartan.

2. Dante Moore – QB – Class of 2023

Dante Moore is still waiting for his career to blossom. Moore attended Martin Luther King High School in Detroit, where he earned a 0.9980 rating as the No. 4 player in the 2023 class. He went to UCLA, but had a rough first season with 1,610 passing yards, 11 touchdowns and nine interceptions.

Moore entered the transfer portal and is now with the Oregon Ducks, sitting behind Dillon Gabriel this season. He is expected to take the reins next year for Dan Lanning’s offense. Moore’s career is still young, but he was another example of the growing pains that come with starting a true freshman quarterback.

3. LaMarr Woodley – LB – Class of 2003

LaMarr Woodley was the highest in-state recruit to commit to Michigan before Underwood, earning a 0.9972 rating out of Saginaw High School in 2003. Woodley was named a captain in 2006 and he broke out for the Wolverines. Woodley collected 12 sacks as a senior and won the Lombardi Award as the best lineman, offensive or defensive, in the country. His 12 sacks led the Big Ten and was eighth in the nation. After his senior season, Woodley was a first-team All-Big Ten selection and a unanimous All-American.

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After his Michigan career, the Pittsburgh Steelers selected Woodley with the No. 46 overall pick in the 2007 NFL Draft. Woodley played in 110 NFL games, making 58 sacks, 229 solo tackles and nine forced fumbles. WooHeley played for the Steelers from 2007-2013, the Oakland Raiders in 2014, and finished his career with the Arizona Cardinals in 2015.

4. Kelly Baraka – RB – Class of 2001

There were many success stories on this list, but running back Kelly Baraka was the one outlier. Baraka was a consensus five-star from Portage Northern High School. With a 0.9940 rating, he was supposed to be the next great running back to play at Michigan…but that never happened.

The former high school All-American was arrested twice for marijuana possession before his freshman year and was suspended for the season by then-head coach Lloyd Carr. Still, he was set to return for the 2002 season and bring a style of speed Michigan hadn’t seen in the backfield since Tyrone Wheatley. That never happened, though, and Carr eventually kicked him off the team because of his off-field issues.

5. Brandon Graham – ILB – Class of 2006

Brandon Graham had all the accolades in the world coming into his freshman year at Michigan. At Crockett Vocation Tech in Detroit, Graham was named to the USA Today All-America first team, and was the Michigan Gatorade Player of the Year. He had a 0.9930 rating as a five-star. Graham became the first player from the state of Michigan to play in the U.S. Army All-American Bowl.

Graham had a dominant career at Michigan. Graham became the first defensive player in school history to be voted Bo Schembechler Most Valuable Player twice (2008, 2009), he shared the 2009 Chicago Tribune Silver Football as the Big Ten’s MVP, and he was named to the 2008 All-Big Ten second team and 2009 All-Big Ten first team.

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In four seasons in Ann Arbor, Graham posted 138 tackles, 56 tackles for loss, 29.5 sacks, three fumble recoveries and three pass breakups. His 56 TFLs and 29.5 sacks rank second in Michigan history, and he is tied for second at Michigan in career forced fumbles.

After an outstanding career with the Wolverines, the Philadelphia Eagles drafted Graham 13th overall in the 2010 draft. Graham is still playing at a high level for the Eagles 14 years later, and he has 2.5 sacks in 2024 at 36 years old.



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