The stat was making the rounds after Auburn didn’t make the championship game of the SEC tournament: No team has lost three of its past four games before the NCAA tournament and won a national championship.

And yet, Auburn still was a somewhat surprising pick as the No. 1 overall seed in the tournament.

Auburn stumbled late in a very tough league, which might open things up for the other teams in the South region. Auburn will open the tournament against Alabama State, which took down St. Francis 70-68 on a thrilling final-second layup off a tipped full-court pass in the First Four at Dayton on Tuesday. (We’re also waiting to see if San Diego State or North Carolina play Ole Miss on Friday, as well), but here are the rest of the picks for the first round in the South, with all the odds from BetMGM:

Midwest region picks | East region picks | West region picks

(All times Eastern.)

No. 8 Louisville (-2.5) over No. 9 Creighton, 12:15 p.m. Thursday

The first game of the first round Thursday is a good one. Louisville seems very under-seeded, but that’s part of playing in a bad ACC. Still, since Dec. 14 the Cardinals are 21-2 and one of the losses came to Duke in the ACC tournament. Creighton has been a very good team too, and 7-foot-1 Ryan Kalkbrenner will be a problem for the Cardinals. But I won’t hold it against Louisville that the ACC was down. The Cards advance.

No. 1 Auburn (-31.5) over No. 16 Alabama State, 2:50 p.m. Thursday

Alabama State thrilled us with a great NCAA tournament opener, with a last-second shot to win it. But this isn’t the type of 16 seed that can scare a 1 seed. Alabama State doesn’t have any strength that will keep it in a game against an Auburn team looking to quiet critics who wondered how it got the No. 1 overall seed after losing three of their last four.

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No. 13 Yale (+7.5) over No. 4 Texas A&M, 7:25 p.m. Thursday

Yale has become the Ivy’s best program, and this season it dominated the league. Yale was 16-1 after Dec. 22. Texas A&M is a good team, but it lives off offensive rebounding (the best offensive rebounding percentage in the nation), and yet Yale is pretty good on the defensive boards. The Ivy League has been pretty good in the first round of the NCAA tournament, going 10-4 against the spread in the first round since 2009 (per Matt Eisenberg’s Tournament Guide). Texas A&M could make a run into the second weekend, but this one isn’t going to be easy.

No. 5 Michigan (-2.5) over No. 12 UC San Diego, 10 p.m. Thursday

Ah, the 5 vs. 12 game. We all know by now this is where upsets come from, and UC San Diego is a dangerous 12 seed. KenPom.com had San Diego as the 36th best team in the sport, which is rarified air for a Big West school. That’s just one spot below UConn, the reigning champs. San Diego does everything well, and it shoots (and hits) a lot of 3s. The problem is UCSD’s size. It doesn’t have a regular who is taller than 6-8. Michigan is the rare team with two 7-footers, Vladislav Goldin and Danny Wolf. If UCSD hits a ton of 3s this could be a fun upset, but this was a really unfortunate matchup for a strong mid-major.

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No. 14 Lipscomb (+14.5) over No. 3 Iowa State, 1:30 p.m. Friday

Iowa State looked like it could be a Final Four contender, but the last month was a little rough. Injuries affected the Cyclones. It appears Tamin Lipsey (10.8 ppg) will return from injury, but Keshon Gilbert (13.4 ppg) is out for the season via the Des Moines Register. That lowers the Cyclones’ ceiling. Lipscomb has a lot of shooters, which is what you want from a big underdog. If Lipscomb can knock down some of the many 3s it’s going to take, this one could be interesting late.

No. 11 North Carolina (-1.5) over No. 6 Ole Miss, 4:05 p.m. Friday

Most years, a team that wins in the First Four also wins a first-round game. This isn’t just an overreaction to UNC’s dominant win over San Diego State; the Tar Heels match up pretty well with Ole Miss. UNC didn’t deserve an at-large spot but that never meant it couldn’t get hot and win multiple games.

No. 7 Marquette (-3.5) over No. 10 New Mexico, 7:25 p.m. Friday

If you like guard play, this will be a fun matchup. Marquette’s Kam Jones is one of the best players in the country, a Bob Cousy Award finalist for the trophy that goes to the nation’s best point guard. New Mexico’s Donovan Dent and his 20.6 points per game should get more respect for postseason honors. Marquette won just five of its last 12 games, but there weren’t any bad losses. This isn’t an easy pick between two similar but flawed teams. Marquette might be happy to not see a Big East foe.

No. 15 Bryant (+17.5) over No. 2 Michigan State, 10 p.m. Friday

Michigan State had a tremendous season. The Spartans were good to bettors too, posting a 22-10-1 mark against the spread via Action Network, one of the best marks in the sport. MSU won’t shoot many 3s, won’t shoot them well, but can score inside and rebound it well. Bryant is one of the few 15 seeds that actually has some decent size. It has the sixth-tallest team in college basketball, according to KenPom.com. The Bulldogs didn’t play a tough schedule and against the two best teams they played, St. John’s and Grand Canyon, they lost by 22 and 46, respectively. There’s no upset concern here, but Bryant might not be a total pushover.