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Wisconsin vs. Michigan State Prediction, Odds and Best Prop Bets for Big Ten Tournament Semifinal

We’re down to the final four teams in the Big Ten conference tournament. The first of two semifinals on Saturday will feature a classic duel between the Wisconsin Badgers and Michigan State Spartans.
These teams faced off just two weeks ago on March 2, with the Badgers securing a 71-62 victory. Now, the regular season champions will try to keep their momentum going en route to a berth in the tournament final.
Let’s dive into the odds, key players, and my best bet for this semifinal showdown.
Odds via BetMGM Sportsbook
Spread
Moneyline
Total
Wisconsin
John Tonje: Wisconsin’s leading scorer, had one of his worst games of the season when the Baders faced the Spartans. He shot just 3-of-13 from the field and was largely shut down by the Michigan State defense. He’ll need to step up in a big way if he wants to give the Badgers a chance to win this game.
Michigan State
Jeremy Fears Jr.: The Michigan State guard leads the team in assists and has been a huge distributor of the ball in recent games, averaging 5.5 assists per game this season, including teaching 5+ in three of their last four games. If you’re looking for a prop bet, consider the OVER on his assists total.
The most important factor in this game is going to be the perimeter defense of Michigan State. Wisconsin ranks 24th in the country in three-point shot rate, with 47.4% of its shots coming from beyond the arc. The Badgers will have to find a way to figure out the puzzle that is the Spartans’ perimeter defense which ranks third in the country in opponent three-point field goal percentage, keeping teams to shooting just 28.0% from beyond the arc.
The Wisconsin perimeter offense against the Michigan State perimeter defense proved to be the key factor in their regular season matchup just two weeks ago. The Badgers were held to shooting just 15.6% from beyond the arc in that game, leading to Michigan State’s win.
This is a tough matchup for the Badgers from a stylistic perspective and I expect another win and cover by the Spartans.
Pick: Michigan State -2.5 (-110) via BetMGM
As a new BetMGM user, you can now claim up to $1,500 in bonus bets when you create an account using BetMGM bonus code SI1500, deposit at least $10, and place a real money wager. If you lose your bet, BetMGM will return your entire stake as bonus bets.
Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.
You can check out all of Iain’s bets here!
Michigan
Michigan State vs Oregon in Big Ten tournament: Live updates from quarterfinals

MSU Coach Tom Izzo addresses fans after a win over Michigan at Breslin
MSU Coach Tom Izzo addresses fans, celebrates Big Ten title and win over Michigan on Sunday, March 9, 2025, at the Breslin Center in East Lansing.
After earning a double bye for the opening rounds of the Big Ten basketball tournament, the Michigan State Spartans return to the court Friday to face the Oregon Ducks, who MSU Tom Izzo says “is maybe the hottest team right now in the league.”
The top-seeded Spartans (26-5), are not bad themselves, looking to carry their momentum from a win Sunday against the Michigan Wolverines, facing the No. 8 seeded Ducks (24-8). Oregon won Thursday, 72-59, over 9-seed Indiana in the second round.
MSU rallied past Oregon on Feb. 8, 86-74, in East Lansing.
Watch MSU-Oregon live on Fubo (free trial)
Now, the teams rematch at Gainbridge Fieldhouse in Indianapolis. The winner heads to Saturday’s semifinals to face the winner of UCLA-Wisconsin.
Follow live updates and highlights from Michigan State-Oregon below:
Michigan State vs Oregon basketball live updates in Big Ten tournament
Live game updates to come.
Between MSU and Oregon, who has the longer winning streak?
Both teams have a combined 15 straight wins under their belt coming into this game.
Oregon’s eight-game win streak is the longest active streak in the Big Ten, according to university’s athletic website. MSU is coming into the game right behind them with seven.
Chris Solari’s prediction for Michigan State basketball vs. Oregon
Michigan State Writer, Chris Solari picked the Spartans to beat the Ducks using defense and depth in a hard fought game. Read his full prediction here.
Michigan State vs Oregon projected starting lineups
While the starters have not been officially released yet, here are the projected starting five, according to a report from the Lansing State Journal:
Michigan State’s starting five is:
- Jeremy Fears Jr.
- Jaden Akins
- Jase Richardson
- Jaxon Kohler
- Szymon Zapal
Oregon’s starting five is:
- Nate Bittle
- Brandon Angel
- TJ Bamba
- Keeshawn Barthelemy
- Jackson Shelstad
What jerseys will MSU wear?
MSU will sport their all white jerseys with Spartan green accent, the team announced on X.
Michigan State vs Oregon basketball odds
MSU is a 6½-point favorite over Oregon, according to BetMGM. The over/under total for the game is 142½ points.
When do the men’s March Madness games start?
The 2025 NCAA men’s basketball tournament begins Tuesday in Dayton, Ohio at UD Arena with the First Four games. The first day of first-round games is two days later on Thursday.
Here is the full schedule breakdown for the men’s NCAA tournament:
- First Four: March 18 and March 19
- Round of 64: March 20 and March 21
- Round of 32: March 22 and March 23
- Sweet 16: March 27 and March 28
- Elite Eight: March 29 and March 30
- Final Four: April 5
- National championship: April 7
What channel is Michigan State vs Oregon on today?
- TV channel: Big Ten Network.
- Stream live: Fubo (free trial).
- TV/radio: Big Ten Network/Spartan Sports Network radio, including WJIM 1240-AM and WMMQ 94.9-FM; SiriusXM Ch. 84.
Michigan State vs Oregon basketball start time
- Date: Friday, March. 14.
- Time: 12 p.m. ET.
- Where: Gainbridge Fieldhouse, Indianapolis.
Jalen Williams is a trending reporter at the Detroit Free Press. Contact him at jawilliams1@freepress.com.
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