MONTEZUMA, Kan. (AP) — Orville Williams has had a healthy wheat crop on his 2,600-acre farm in Montezuma, Kansas, every year since he was a teenager.

It hasn’t always been easy. For instance, there were challenging economic times through the 1980s and various degrees of drought affecting his yield through the years. But this season feels different.

“All in all, it’s not going to be a good year,” said Williams, 76.

Record-setting drought and hotter-than-average temperatures mixed with sharp drops have impacted much of the U.S. early this year, including the Plains region. Drought conditions have worsened the spread of the wheat streak mosaic virus and barley yellow dwarf virus, which impact the potential of the crop. Combined with climbing input costs related to fertilizer, diesel fuel and tariffs, longtime wheat farmers say they are feeling a lot of pain.

“It’s kind of a double whammy,” Williams added.

Crop estimates underscore just how bad the situation is. Growers will see their smallest wheat crop in terms of production since 1972, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture; 1.56 billion bushels this year, down to 1.05 billion bushels million bushels in 2025. That’s especially harmful to Kansas, one of the top overall producers of wheat in the U.S.

Only in five of the past 40 years has Kansas’ wheat crop been in such a bad state, an analysis of USDA data shows, with 58% of the crop rated as “poor” or “very poor” as of May 17. The last time the fields were in as bad a condition was during a severe drought in 2023.

“It’s very tough conditions that growers are faced with right now,” said Kansas State agronomist Romulo Lolloto. And he said that affects consumers, “whether it is through going to a bakery and having higher bread prices, or whether it’s through losing some of the international market out there for the U.S.”

With this year so bad, many wheat growers have been forced to file for crop insurance or consider whether they can lean on other crops to withstand the uncertainties.

Williams saw close to 100 bushels of wheat per acre irrigated last year, but this year might only have 30 to 40. He splits his wheat crop between irrigated and dryland — for which farmers depend on rainfall and soil moisture — and there, he might only see 10 to 15 bushels per acre.

Williams and other farmers said they know they’ll lose money this year. “I guess my attitude is: Stay the course. Don’t make any new purchases,” he added. “And forget your wants and just do your needs.”

The weather is unpredictable, and farmers’ costs are adding up.

Climate change, caused by the burning of gas, oil and coal, has made farming a number of crops increasingly challenging over the years, experts say, and wheat is no exception. Several wheat farmers described worsening extremes this year, including the winter’s intense and unseasonable heat, late freezes and an ongoing shortage of rain.

The U.S., meanwhile, has lost ground in the global wheat market to Russia and the European Union; national wheat acreage has dropped over the past several years for a variety of reasons, said Brad Rippey, USDA meteorologist.

“There’s certainly a downward trend for wheat in the Great Plains and elsewhere in the U.S. based on a number of factors, and certainly the weather challenges over the last couple of decades have been a big part of that,” Rippey said.

Still, wheat is the nation’s third field crop as planted acreage, production and gross farm receipts after corn and soybeans, according to the USDA. The U.S. is one of the world’s largest producers by volume of wheat each year, and it’s a major exporter of the crop.

Thousands of U.S. farmers rely on wheat as an important livelihood — and factors outside of their control have made their work more difficult.

The dry conditions sped up how fast the crop grew, USDA data show, not a positive sign for the quality of the harvest.

By the end of the first full week of May, 86% of wheat crops in Kansas had produced a seed head, while 61% was typical in the previous 10 years at the same point in the season. The plant is “genetically programmed” to produce a head before dying, Rippey said, but if they do so too early, the result will often be poor quality.

Only 32.4 million acres (13.1 million hectares) of wheat were planted this year to begin with, and harvested acreage hit just 22 million, marking abandonment, which is when farmers stop tending to a crop before harvesting, at slightly above 32% of this year’s wheat crop, according to USDA estimates.

With the exception of the 2022-2023 cycle, there have only been a handful of other years in history where U.S. winter wheat abandonment has been higher, Rippey noted.

In Kansas, about 17% of the crop is being abandoned this year.

“Rain makes grain,” said Mike Nickelson, a wheat and corn farmer in western Kansas. “That’s the whole key. We can do the very best we can do and then if we don’t get the rain, then it makes it pretty tough.”

Forecasters are predicting a substantial El Nino, a cyclical and natural process in which patches of the equatorial Pacific warm and alter the world’s weather patterns, including rainfall. Because in the U.S. that is expected to mean warmer-than-normal temperatures this summer, it could be months before there is any drought relief.

“It seems like we’re the ones out trying to feed the world and we’re the ones suffering the most,” Nickelson, 60, added. “My son is here farming with me and I’d really like to transition him to help take over the farm. I’m like, really, do I want him to have to do this? I mean, it’s a great life, but man, right now it’s just tough.”

The war in Iran, meanwhile, has sent fuel prices soaring. Williams, the Montezuma farmer, said he drives 150 to 200 miles (240 to 320 kilometers) a day, and diesel is up nearly $2 per gallon from one year ago.

The cost of seed, fertilizer and more is rapidly adding up, too. Some growers bought fertilizer ahead of time for this season, but they worry about the year ahead. Farmers already have been navigating the consequences of the Trump administration’s rocky trade policy.

Nickelson said urea, a type of fertilizer for agriculture, previously cost $400 a ton. He is now paying between $600 and $700 a ton. “You hope to break even, but I’m not sure we’re gonna do that,” he said.

There aren’t many options for farmers to make up for losses.

For Ben Palen, a fifth-generation farmer and farming consultant, solutions are tough, and relief feels minimal.

Crop insurance to account for the losses only go so far. The Trump administration has offered one-time bridge payments for qualifying farmers of a variety of crops to aid their increasing costs amid trade disruptions and inflation, but those funds are also limited.

Allowing the wheat to fallow — essentially leaving it unused to prep land for the next crop — or planting something unplanned aren’t viable options, either. It’s not just a matter of adding more water to the land to try to get wheat to stick, and it’s difficult for farmers to change course to another crop at this point in the year.

“It’s a little late now to try to plant something on say, a wheat crop that’s failed on a particular farm,” Palen, 70, said, “because we just don’t have soil moisture to get another crop started.

“This is probably about as challenging of a time to be a farmer that I can recollect,” he added. “It’s a pretty serious situation.”

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St. John reported from Detroit. Associated Press journalists Alyssa Goodman in New York and M.K. Wildeman in Hartford, Connecticut, contributed to this report.

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