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2026 ZiPS Projections: Kansas City Royals

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2026 ZiPS Projections: Kansas City Royals


For the 22nd consecutive season, the ZiPS projection system is unleashing a full set of prognostications. For more information on the ZiPS projections, please consult this year’s introduction, as well as MLB’s glossary entry. The team order is selected by lot, and the next team up is the Kansas City Royals.

Batters

For the Royals, 2025 was about the season that was expected. Bobby Witt Jr. was amazing and the starting rotation was very good, but the team was held back as a result of getting pretty much no production out of the second base, outfield, and designated hitter positions. ZiPS projected the Royals for 83 wins, and they won 82. Normally, that would make a team a real contender in the AL Central, but the Tigers played like an elite team in the first half and the Guardians did the same in the second half, leaving the division always too far out of reach for the Royals.

While Kansas City had some serious problems, especially in those trouble spots mentioned above, it was generally encouraging how the team dealt with it. I stand by every word I said about the outfield back in February. The idea to just roll with Hunter Renfroe and MJ Melendez after their terrible 2024 seasons was a massive missed opportunity. But the good thing is that the Royals were quick to jettison both and get looks at other players who showed a lot of promise (Jac Caglianone) or at least had some upside (Drew Waters). Now, these moves didn’t actually pan out in the short term, but it’s always better to try something that might work over something that almost definitely won’t.

ZiPS doesn’t really like the outfield this time around either, but it does think that there are enough defense and platoon advantages in the various players slated to man the grass that the Royals could eke out respectable production from the group, certainly quite a lot more than they got last year. And this is important, because every win for a team with a projected total in the low-to-mid-80s, especially a team in a Central division, has tremendous value. Even better would be a much bigger acquisition to boost at least one of the positions, but failing that, ZiPS doesn’t see either left or right field as unmitigated disasters this time around (though Steamer is less optimistic).

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Witt Jr. is the straw that stirs the drink, of course, but beyond that, this was the season I think Maikel Garcia clearly established himself as an All-Star level third baseman. He finally turned that good plate discipline and hard-hit numbers into real production, and he’s Gold Glove-worthy at the hot corner. Expect both players on the left side of the infield to keep things up in 2026. Another positive: The Royals could see some improvement at second base. ZiPS thinks that Michael Massey is better than his 2025 performance indicates. My inclination might be to use Massey as a super-sub type, and just stick Jonathan India at second and leave him there; there’s no reason to pretend India’s a corner outfielder, as the team did at times this past season.

I was a big advocate for the Royals’ being aggressive with Caglianone’s promotion, and I still think it was the right thing to do. It remains to be seen if he can contribute defensively anywhere, but he ought to hit better than he did in his debut campaign; it’s hard to imagine he could do worse than his horrifying 46 wRC+. The problem is the Royals can’t afford to just stick Cags at DH every day. They need to leave that open for Salvador Perez to get spot starts when he’s not wearing a glove in some sort of timeshare with Carter Jensen behind the plate and Vinnie Pasquantino at first. You shouldn’t be alarmed by the top comp for Caglianone. Costen Shockley didn’t hit for the Angels initially, and after a dispute about whether or not they told him they weren’t going to demote him, they sent him to the minors; in response, after having just moved his family out to California, he peaced out from baseball at age 23.

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And you better not be upset about the Witt top comp. Dickie Thon was absolutely terrific until a Mike Torrez fastball shattered his face; he was never the same after that. Don’t worry, ZiPS isn’t forecasting Witt to suffer the same fate!

Pitchers

In the projection table, the rotation tops out at 2.2 WAR, from Cole Ragans. However, this understates the quality of this group of starters, as ZiPS is understandably squeamish about projecting big innings totals from Ragans and Kris Bubic. A full season for Ragans would put his WAR safely over three. The same is true for Bubic, though rotator cuff injuries always make me a bit worried.

The rest of the rotation, Seth Lugo, Noah Cameron, and Michael Wacha projects out as comfortably average-plus, and I don’t think it’s a stretch to put Kansas City’s starting staff at the back of the top 10 in baseball. Ryan Bergert and Stephen Kolek won’t scare anyone, but they’re perfectly reasonable emergency replacements, and both Bailey Falter and Daniel Lynch IV are at least plausible options if injuries plague the starting five.

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The bullpen projects as a middle-of-the-pack unit at the moment. ZiPS remains a fan of Hunter Harvey, but injuries ruined his 2025 season, and he’s currently a free agent. Otherwise, ZiPS pegs the Royals as having a quintet of B+ relievers in Carlos Estévez, Lucas Erceg, John Schreiber, Angel Zerpa, and Alex Lange, but doesn’t think they have a true lights-out closer. Overall, this pen comes out aggressively mid, and a depth addition or two would be welcome.

Right now, ZiPS projects the Royals to finish with somewhere between 82-86 wins or so, depending on the assumptions. That makes them relevant in the AL Central and a second-tier wild card contender. There’s still time for them to do more to get over the hump.

Ballpark graphic courtesy Eephus League. Depth charts constructed by way of those listed here. Size of player names is very roughly proportional to Depth Chart playing time. The final team projections may differ considerably from our Depth Chart playing time.

Batters – Standard

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Player B Age PO PA AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS
Bobby Witt Jr. R 26 SS 658 598 98 169 34 9 27 93 46 117 32 9
Maikel Garcia R 26 3B 635 571 82 150 30 5 11 67 54 98 25 7
Carter Jensen L 22 C 585 521 68 126 22 5 17 69 57 159 7 1
Vinnie Pasquantino L 28 1B 613 549 63 139 29 1 26 90 51 90 1 0
Kameron Misner L 28 CF 451 396 54 83 19 3 11 46 49 144 16 3
Salvador Perez R 36 C 575 532 52 131 24 1 24 80 28 124 0 0
Jonathan India R 29 2B 555 478 67 114 25 2 11 50 57 106 4 3
Jac Caglianone L 23 1B 524 473 64 120 20 1 23 71 40 114 3 1
Carson Roccaforte L 24 CF 531 475 60 98 21 6 12 55 50 182 19 9
Drew Waters B 27 CF 448 406 55 91 19 8 9 45 35 136 12 4
Kyle Isbel L 29 CF 394 355 49 84 15 5 6 37 24 76 7 4
Bobby Dalbec R 31 3B 462 416 53 92 17 3 15 52 39 176 6 1
John Rave L 28 CF 487 431 61 99 19 5 11 51 45 130 15 4
Tyler Tolbert R 28 2B 443 394 59 88 14 5 5 41 26 120 35 5
Harold Castro L 32 3B 372 345 37 89 15 1 11 45 17 83 3 1
Michael Massey L 28 2B 427 395 42 96 19 1 11 46 21 83 3 2
Nick Loftin R 27 LF 428 374 50 89 18 1 8 44 43 67 8 3
Diego Castillo R 28 3B 412 368 45 86 17 1 6 38 39 83 3 3
Isan Díaz L 30 SS 241 212 28 45 6 1 9 29 24 64 2 1
Jordan Groshans R 26 3B 401 364 38 86 13 1 4 33 33 74 0 1
Sam Kulasingam B 24 2B 527 468 62 110 20 6 2 41 41 104 10 6
Connor Kaiser R 29 SS 334 292 32 54 12 2 5 27 33 116 4 1
Dairon Blanco R 33 DH 318 282 47 68 12 3 5 35 21 82 31 6
Luke Maile R 35 C 161 139 14 31 6 0 3 13 17 45 2 0
Rudy Martin L 30 CF 320 281 37 65 8 3 5 30 26 84 21 5
Tyler Gentry R 27 RF 441 394 46 85 18 2 10 49 36 133 5 2
Blake Mitchell L 21 C 371 318 36 58 10 2 7 34 47 144 8 4
Peyton Wilson B 26 2B 471 421 49 93 17 4 7 45 40 125 12 4
Randal Grichuk R 34 DH 347 320 42 76 17 2 11 36 22 75 1 1
Javi Vaz L 25 2B 492 427 56 98 15 3 4 42 43 59 12 2
Mark Canha R 37 LF 352 303 35 71 14 0 6 32 33 71 3 1
Canyon Brown R 22 C 268 237 29 48 9 0 2 21 17 77 4 2
Julio E. Rodriguez R 29 C 214 195 17 40 7 0 5 21 15 57 1 0
Luca Tresh R 26 C 348 316 31 70 13 2 9 37 24 91 2 0
Brian O’Keefe R 32 C 279 254 28 50 12 1 8 29 22 78 1 1
Justin Johnson R 26 2B 346 311 31 62 13 0 4 30 25 90 5 2
Adam Frazier L 34 2B 406 368 41 85 16 2 5 36 27 72 6 4
Dustin Dickerson R 25 SS 438 382 41 74 8 1 3 30 45 119 9 5
Kyle Hayes R 28 C 150 126 10 20 5 0 1 13 14 59 1 0
Austin Charles R 22 3B 365 330 36 67 11 2 5 32 22 117 10 5
Chris Brito R 26 1B 251 217 20 47 8 0 3 20 27 65 2 1
Gavin Cross L 25 RF 477 440 54 92 18 3 12 50 30 148 14 3
Hunter Renfroe R 34 RF 381 347 35 76 18 1 11 40 30 82 1 0
Jack Pineda L 26 SS 272 245 27 51 11 0 1 21 16 73 4 1
MJ Melendez L 27 LF 526 479 61 105 24 4 18 60 41 154 9 5
Sam Ruta L 24 3B 306 274 24 52 13 2 5 27 26 135 0 1
Colton Becker R 25 SS 369 314 36 68 11 1 1 24 32 78 25 6
Nick Pratto L 27 1B 455 403 47 83 17 3 10 45 42 158 6 1
Brett Squires L 26 1B 469 427 42 91 18 3 8 46 34 156 11 3
Diego Hernandez L 25 CF 330 306 32 69 8 4 4 30 12 97 7 5
Nick Gordon L 30 2B 287 266 31 62 13 3 5 29 13 74 4 4
Daniel Vazquez R 22 SS 496 449 50 97 18 3 2 36 37 128 12 6
Carter Frederick R 23 RF 402 367 45 73 21 3 2 31 30 159 8 2
Diego Guzman R 22 3B 200 179 16 31 7 1 1 13 9 83 4 2
Omar Hernandez R 24 C 318 292 27 57 10 1 1 22 13 76 7 3
Spencer Nivens L 24 LF 483 432 45 89 16 2 9 44 45 130 7 3
Bryan Gonzalez R 24 DH 371 345 38 74 13 4 7 35 20 139 8 5
Derlin Figueroa L 22 3B 508 462 49 92 14 2 8 40 35 135 10 3
Erick Torres R 21 LF 490 443 44 92 13 1 3 37 28 93 8 7
Trevor Werner R 25 RF 406 368 41 67 14 4 8 37 29 164 9 4

Batters – Advanced

Player PA BA OBP SLG OPS+ ISO BABIP Def WAR wOBA 3YOPS+ RC
Bobby Witt Jr. 658 .283 .337 .505 132 .222 .313 7 6.7 .356 130 112
Maikel Garcia 635 .263 .324 .391 100 .128 .301 9 3.7 .313 99 80
Carter Jensen 585 .242 .317 .401 100 .159 .316 1 3.0 .313 104 68
Vinnie Pasquantino 613 .253 .320 .452 113 .199 .261 -4 1.8 .330 112 80
Kameron Misner 451 .210 .300 .356 84 .146 .299 5 1.8 .291 84 47
Salvador Perez 575 .246 .296 .430 100 .184 .279 -8 1.7 .310 93 68
Jonathan India 555 .238 .336 .368 98 .130 .285 -7 1.6 .314 97 61
Jac Caglianone 524 .254 .321 .446 112 .192 .289 -3 1.6 .331 118 69
Carson Roccaforte 531 .206 .285 .352 78 .146 .306 7 1.5 .281 84 55
Drew Waters 448 .224 .291 .377 86 .153 .314 3 1.5 .292 88 49
Kyle Isbel 394 .237 .290 .358 81 .121 .286 8 1.5 .284 81 40
Bobby Dalbec 462 .221 .294 .385 89 .164 .342 1 1.4 .297 86 49
John Rave 487 .230 .304 .374 89 .144 .303 -2 1.3 .298 88 54
Tyler Tolbert 443 .223 .281 .322 69 .099 .309 6 1.3 .268 71 45
Harold Castro 372 .258 .295 .403 94 .145 .311 0 1.2 .302 88 42
Michael Massey 427 .243 .286 .380 85 .137 .282 2 1.2 .289 84 44
Nick Loftin 428 .238 .323 .356 91 .118 .271 4 1.1 .302 91 46
Diego Castillo 412 .234 .308 .334 81 .100 .287 0 0.7 .287 82 40
Isan Díaz 241 .212 .297 .377 88 .165 .259 -1 0.7 .297 85 25
Jordan Groshans 401 .236 .302 .310 73 .074 .287 3 0.6 .274 73 34
Sam Kulasingam 527 .235 .298 .316 73 .081 .298 2 0.6 .273 74 49
Connor Kaiser 334 .185 .274 .291 59 .106 .287 5 0.6 .256 56 24
Dairon Blanco 318 .241 .305 .358 86 .117 .323 0 0.5 .293 83 40
Luke Maile 161 .223 .319 .331 83 .108 .308 -1 0.5 .293 76 15
Rudy Martin 320 .231 .300 .335 78 .104 .313 -3 0.4 .283 76 35
Tyler Gentry 441 .216 .289 .348 78 .132 .299 5 0.4 .282 79 41
Blake Mitchell 371 .182 .295 .292 66 .110 .305 -2 0.3 .268 76 31
Peyton Wilson 471 .221 .296 .330 76 .109 .298 -5 0.3 .280 79 45
Randal Grichuk 347 .238 .291 .406 93 .168 .278 0 0.3 .301 88 38
Javi Vaz 492 .230 .308 .307 74 .077 .258 -5 0.2 .277 75 44
Mark Canha 352 .234 .330 .340 89 .106 .288 -3 0.2 .301 83 35
Canyon Brown 268 .203 .267 .266 51 .063 .291 3 0.1 .242 56 18
Julio E. Rodriguez 214 .205 .271 .318 65 .113 .263 -1 0.1 .263 63 17
Luca Tresh 348 .222 .278 .361 78 .139 .282 -8 0.1 .279 79 32
Brian O’Keefe 279 .197 .263 .346 69 .149 .250 -3 0.0 .268 65 24
Justin Johnson 346 .199 .267 .280 54 .081 .267 5 0.0 .247 57 25
Adam Frazier 406 .231 .292 .326 74 .095 .275 -4 -0.1 .274 70 38
Dustin Dickerson 438 .194 .286 .243 51 .049 .273 2 -0.1 .247 53 30
Kyle Hayes 150 .159 .277 .222 43 .063 .288 1 -0.1 .239 42 8
Austin Charles 365 .203 .260 .294 55 .091 .298 4 -0.2 .246 60 29
Chris Brito 251 .217 .306 .295 71 .078 .295 2 -0.2 .272 74 20
Gavin Cross 477 .209 .263 .345 69 .136 .286 3 -0.2 .265 73 44
Hunter Renfroe 381 .219 .283 .372 82 .153 .256 -3 -0.2 .287 78 37
Jack Pineda 272 .208 .270 .265 52 .057 .292 0 -0.2 .243 52 19
MJ Melendez 526 .219 .283 .399 89 .180 .283 -6 -0.2 .295 91 58
Sam Ruta 306 .190 .265 .307 60 .117 .351 2 -0.2 .255 62 23
Colton Becker 369 .217 .293 .268 60 .051 .285 -6 -0.3 .257 60 32
Nick Pratto 455 .206 .287 .337 75 .131 .311 1 -0.3 .278 76 41
Brett Squires 469 .213 .279 .326 69 .113 .316 3 -0.4 .269 72 42
Diego Hernandez 330 .225 .258 .317 60 .092 .317 -1 -0.5 .251 64 29
Nick Gordon 287 .233 .276 .361 77 .128 .305 -8 -0.6 .277 77 29
Daniel Vazquez 496 .216 .276 .283 58 .067 .298 -4 -0.7 .250 62 40
Carter Frederick 402 .199 .266 .289 56 .090 .345 3 -0.8 .249 61 31
Diego Guzman 200 .173 .216 .240 28 .067 .316 1 -0.9 .204 38 11
Omar Hernandez 318 .195 .235 .247 36 .052 .260 0 -0.9 .216 40 20
Spencer Nivens 483 .206 .280 .315 67 .109 .273 -1 -0.9 .264 73 41
Bryan Gonzalez 371 .214 .263 .336 67 .122 .337 0 -0.9 .262 69 34
Derlin Figueroa 508 .199 .258 .290 54 .091 .263 -3 -1.2 .244 60 38
Erick Torres 490 .208 .264 .262 49 .054 .256 7 -1.4 .238 55 35
Trevor Werner 406 .182 .245 .307 54 .125 .301 0 -1.4 .244 56 31

Batters – Top Near-Age Offensive Comps

Batters – 80th/20th Percentiles

Player 80th BA 80th OBP 80th SLG 80th OPS+ 80th WAR 20th BA 20th OBP 20th SLG 20th OPS+ 20th WAR
Bobby Witt Jr. .307 .365 .573 157 8.8 .258 .312 .450 111 5.0
Maikel Garcia .288 .354 .436 119 5.3 .237 .299 .351 82 2.3
Carter Jensen .268 .344 .454 121 4.6 .214 .289 .346 79 1.6
Vinnie Pasquantino .277 .345 .507 133 3.3 .230 .297 .402 93 0.3
Kameron Misner .232 .325 .402 100 2.8 .183 .272 .312 65 0.7
Salvador Perez .269 .317 .480 117 3.0 .219 .271 .374 77 0.1
Jonathan India .263 .362 .418 116 3.0 .213 .310 .326 81 0.4
Jac Caglianone .280 .346 .505 134 3.0 .226 .292 .383 89 0.0
Carson Roccaforte .233 .312 .405 99 2.9 .178 .260 .306 59 0.3
Drew Waters .251 .318 .421 104 2.4 .194 .258 .322 64 0.2
Kyle Isbel .264 .316 .408 101 2.5 .210 .265 .310 62 0.5
Bobby Dalbec .249 .323 .445 111 2.7 .194 .270 .341 69 0.3
John Rave .254 .329 .420 107 2.4 .201 .272 .323 65 -0.1
Tyler Tolbert .258 .310 .374 92 2.7 .196 .253 .277 50 0.3
Harold Castro .289 .326 .456 114 2.2 .232 .269 .359 74 0.3
Michael Massey .270 .310 .429 106 2.3 .215 .258 .328 65 0.1
Nick Loftin .262 .347 .404 110 2.1 .213 .295 .316 73 0.1
Diego Castillo .255 .337 .374 98 1.6 .206 .283 .296 64 -0.2
Isan Díaz .238 .323 .434 108 1.3 .188 .269 .326 67 0.1
Jordan Groshans .263 .330 .351 90 1.5 .205 .273 .272 55 -0.4
Sam Kulasingam .261 .322 .355 90 1.7 .211 .273 .276 56 -0.6
Connor Kaiser .213 .303 .350 82 1.6 .154 .243 .246 40 -0.2
Dairon Blanco .273 .334 .405 106 1.4 .212 .276 .310 67 -0.4
Luke Maile .255 .349 .379 104 1.0 .192 .290 .290 65 0.2
Rudy Martin .263 .330 .380 98 1.3 .205 .272 .291 59 -0.4
Tyler Gentry .246 .318 .396 98 1.6 .190 .265 .305 61 -0.5
Blake Mitchell .218 .327 .353 90 1.5 .149 .263 .237 44 -0.8
Peyton Wilson .249 .325 .380 97 1.5 .194 .271 .293 60 -0.7
Randal Grichuk .267 .321 .464 117 1.3 .211 .265 .357 74 -0.6
Javi Vaz .255 .332 .344 91 1.2 .201 .280 .270 57 -1.0
Mark Canha .263 .354 .377 104 0.9 .207 .302 .301 71 -0.7
Canyon Brown .230 .300 .306 68 0.7 .172 .240 .227 33 -0.6
Julio E. Rodriguez .237 .303 .377 91 0.8 .178 .239 .279 46 -0.4
Luca Tresh .253 .309 .416 101 1.1 .193 .247 .313 58 -0.8
Brian O’Keefe .226 .292 .405 90 0.8 .174 .235 .289 48 -0.7
Justin Johnson .230 .299 .334 76 1.0 .174 .243 .242 36 -0.8
Adam Frazier .258 .321 .377 93 1.0 .202 .265 .279 54 -1.1
Dustin Dickerson .220 .313 .276 66 0.7 .167 .262 .210 36 -1.0
Kyle Hayes .189 .309 .273 66 0.4 .128 .243 .181 24 -0.5
Austin Charles .228 .289 .340 73 0.6 .173 .234 .256 35 -1.1
Chris Brito .247 .336 .336 88 0.4 .191 .276 .259 53 -0.8
Gavin Cross .237 .288 .401 90 1.1 .183 .237 .305 52 -1.3
Hunter Renfroe .244 .311 .422 102 0.8 .192 .259 .329 65 -1.0
Jack Pineda .236 .297 .304 70 0.4 .182 .243 .231 35 -0.8
MJ Melendez .248 .309 .457 109 1.2 .194 .252 .341 66 -1.7
Sam Ruta .222 .297 .364 83 0.7 .163 .240 .260 42 -0.9
Colton Becker .241 .320 .301 76 0.5 .190 .269 .239 45 -1.0
Nick Pratto .235 .314 .386 95 0.9 .182 .262 .296 58 -1.3
Brett Squires .243 .307 .383 91 1.0 .185 .254 .288 53 -1.4
Diego Hernandez .259 .290 .365 83 0.4 .200 .233 .274 43 -1.2
Nick Gordon .265 .309 .424 102 0.3 .204 .250 .316 59 -1.3
Daniel Vazquez .244 .306 .326 77 0.6 .189 .252 .246 40 -1.8
Carter Frederick .228 .296 .327 74 0.1 .175 .240 .247 38 -1.8
Diego Guzman .207 .250 .290 49 -0.4 .146 .189 .195 9 -1.5
Omar Hernandez .226 .269 .292 58 0.0 .166 .208 .210 19 -1.6
Spencer Nivens .232 .306 .360 85 0.2 .180 .255 .274 49 -2.1
Bryan Gonzalez .246 .292 .388 88 0.1 .189 .235 .287 47 -1.9
Derlin Figueroa .226 .289 .337 73 0.2 .174 .234 .253 38 -2.2
Erick Torres .231 .288 .293 62 -0.5 .183 .237 .232 33 -2.4
Trevor Werner .211 .273 .358 73 -0.3 .153 .219 .255 33 -2.4

Batters – Platoon Splits

Player BA vs. L OBP vs. L SLG vs. L BA vs. R OBP vs. R SLG vs. R
Bobby Witt Jr. .287 .346 .515 .281 .334 .501
Maikel Garcia .276 .342 .425 .256 .316 .374
Carter Jensen .235 .307 .342 .245 .321 .425
Vinnie Pasquantino .243 .309 .414 .258 .325 .468
Kameron Misner .194 .276 .326 .217 .311 .371
Salvador Perez .247 .302 .432 .246 .293 .430
Jonathan India .242 .344 .379 .237 .333 .364
Jac Caglianone .246 .311 .418 .257 .324 .457
Carson Roccaforte .198 .271 .341 .209 .290 .355
Drew Waters .221 .278 .359 .226 .298 .387
Kyle Isbel .224 .280 .316 .241 .294 .374
Bobby Dalbec .228 .303 .402 .218 .291 .377
John Rave .223 .297 .346 .233 .307 .385
Tyler Tolbert .234 .299 .347 .219 .273 .311
Harold Castro .244 .280 .359 .262 .299 .416
Michael Massey .231 .278 .350 .248 .290 .392
Nick Loftin .243 .338 .360 .235 .315 .353
Diego Castillo .241 .318 .358 .229 .302 .320
Isan Díaz .212 .297 .333 .212 .297 .397
Jordan Groshans .242 .315 .305 .233 .295 .314
Sam Kulasingam .231 .294 .315 .237 .300 .317
Connor Kaiser .189 .287 .316 .183 .267 .279
Dairon Blanco .250 .315 .366 .235 .299 .353
Luke Maile .222 .327 .333 .223 .315 .330
Rudy Martin .227 .292 .309 .234 .304 .348
Tyler Gentry .216 .298 .366 .215 .285 .338
Blake Mitchell .175 .283 .238 .185 .299 .311
Peyton Wilson .223 .296 .331 .220 .296 .330
Randal Grichuk .250 .305 .435 .231 .284 .392
Javi Vaz .226 .297 .304 .231 .311 .308
Mark Canha .238 .333 .347 .233 .328 .337
Canyon Brown .203 .268 .284 .202 .267 .258
Julio E. Rodriguez .206 .280 .324 .205 .266 .315
Luca Tresh .232 .294 .394 .217 .271 .346
Brian O’Keefe .208 .276 .354 .190 .254 .342
Justin Johnson .204 .279 .280 .197 .263 .280
Adam Frazier .221 .277 .291 .234 .297 .337
Dustin Dickerson .197 .291 .248 .192 .283 .242
Kyle Hayes .171 .292 .220 .153 .270 .224
Austin Charles .191 .255 .281 .207 .261 .299
Chris Brito .215 .307 .308 .217 .306 .289
Gavin Cross .208 .254 .336 .210 .266 .349
Hunter Renfroe .226 .303 .396 .216 .275 .361
Jack Pineda .194 .260 .239 .213 .273 .275
MJ Melendez .221 .276 .364 .218 .286 .413
Sam Ruta .182 .247 .286 .193 .271 .315
Colton Becker .224 .306 .265 .213 .288 .269
Nick Pratto .202 .283 .326 .208 .289 .343
Brett Squires .200 .262 .304 .218 .286 .333
Diego Hernandez .223 .253 .298 .226 .260 .325
Nick Gordon .215 .257 .338 .239 .282 .368
Daniel Vazquez .213 .279 .291 .217 .274 .280
Carter Frederick .205 .276 .313 .196 .262 .278
Diego Guzman .186 .226 .220 .167 .211 .250
Omar Hernandez .196 .242 .228 .195 .232 .255
Spencer Nivens .198 .263 .281 .209 .286 .328
Bryan Gonzalez .220 .271 .340 .212 .260 .335
Derlin Figueroa .192 .246 .267 .202 .262 .298
Erick Torres .210 .269 .266 .207 .262 .260
Trevor Werner .179 .248 .292 .183 .244 .313

Pitchers – Standard

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Player T Age W L ERA G GS IP H ER HR BB SO
Cole Ragans L 28 8 5 3.51 24 22 118.0 95 46 12 41 148
Kris Bubic L 28 8 5 3.57 23 19 106.0 98 42 10 35 105
Noah Cameron L 26 8 8 4.08 27 27 141.3 135 64 19 44 122
Michael Wacha R 34 9 10 4.10 27 27 147.0 143 67 18 43 112
Stephen Kolek R 29 7 7 4.23 29 24 129.7 130 61 12 42 89
Seth Lugo R 36 7 8 4.29 25 23 134.3 132 64 20 45 111
Hunter Harvey R 31 4 2 3.04 46 1 47.3 40 16 4 12 50
Michael Lorenzen R 34 7 8 4.57 25 24 130.0 126 66 20 47 103
Bailey Falter L 29 6 7 4.00 26 24 118.3 117 59 16 40 83
Ryan Bergert R 26 3 4 4.46 26 23 103.0 100 51 13 43 86
Luinder Avila R 24 4 5 4.46 25 15 80.7 77 40 9 35 69
Kyle Wright R 30 5 5 4.52 15 15 77.7 75 39 9 29 63
Daniel Lynch IV L 29 4 5 4.35 40 13 97.3 100 47 13 33 75
Angel Zerpa L 26 3 4 3.92 56 5 66.7 64 29 7 22 56
Jonathan Bowlan R 29 4 5 4.24 42 8 80.7 78 38 10 29 74
Lucas Erceg R 31 5 5 3.76 55 0 55.0 49 23 4 22 52
Ben Kudrna R 23 4 7 4.84 23 21 100.3 101 54 12 45 77
Carlos Estévez R 33 4 4 3.95 59 0 57.0 49 25 6 20 49
Hunter Owen L 24 4 6 4.86 21 19 90.7 91 49 12 36 71
John Schreiber R 32 3 3 3.97 63 0 56.7 51 25 6 20 53
Alex Lange R 30 3 3 3.83 43 1 40.0 32 17 3 23 44
Alec Marsh R 28 5 8 4.88 20 17 94.0 92 51 13 39 84
James McArthur R 29 3 3 4.27 30 4 46.3 45 22 5 17 42
Mason Black R 26 5 7 5.00 27 23 108.0 109 60 15 47 87
Steven Zobac R 25 4 5 4.89 18 17 73.7 78 40 11 21 55
Hunter Patteson L 26 4 5 5.04 22 18 94.7 102 53 14 31 64
Tyson Guerrero L 27 4 5 5.00 18 17 81.0 81 45 12 35 67
Steven Cruz R 27 2 3 4.13 52 1 52.3 46 24 5 23 48
Chandler Champlain R 26 5 8 5.00 25 22 113.3 122 63 15 40 76
Spencer Turnbull R 33 3 5 5.04 17 13 64.3 68 36 8 27 46
Jonathan Heasley R 29 3 4 4.95 24 12 76.3 80 42 11 27 52
Dallas Keuchel L 38 3 3 5.07 12 12 55.0 65 31 7 23 34
John Gant R 33 3 5 5.13 16 16 66.7 73 38 10 29 45
Henry Williams R 24 4 7 5.23 20 19 96.3 101 56 14 39 67
Ryan Ramsey L 25 5 8 5.15 22 16 92.7 95 53 13 42 71
Shane Panzini R 24 4 5 5.13 22 16 86.0 90 49 13 42 67
Taylor Clarke R 33 2 2 4.64 45 3 54.3 56 28 8 16 42
Stephen Nogosek R 31 2 3 4.75 34 4 47.3 46 25 6 23 40
Eric Cerantola R 26 2 3 4.64 34 3 54.3 49 28 7 28 55
Oscar Rayo L 24 2 4 4.89 29 4 73.7 78 40 10 25 47
Ryan Brady R 27 2 4 4.79 27 1 47.0 50 25 6 16 34
Cruz Noriega R 28 2 4 5.07 24 4 49.7 53 28 7 20 35
Anthony Simonelli R 27 2 3 4.79 29 2 47.0 47 25 7 22 41
A.J. Causey R 23 7 8 4.48 46 0 64.3 62 32 8 24 52
Justin Dunn R 30 3 7 5.51 16 12 50.7 51 31 8 27 39
Nate Ackenhausen L 24 1 2 4.99 29 2 39.7 38 22 5 21 34
Rich Hill L 46 4 8 5.40 18 17 80.0 84 48 14 36 66
Nick Robertson R 27 1 2 4.72 41 0 47.7 47 25 6 24 43
Sam Long L 30 3 4 4.82 47 1 52.3 52 28 7 26 43
Joey Krehbiel R 33 3 3 4.93 40 0 49.3 53 27 7 19 32
Chazz Martinez L 26 2 3 4.79 45 0 62.0 62 33 8 29 51
Frank Mozzicato L 23 3 7 5.57 24 20 85.7 89 53 12 55 61
Christian Chamberlain L 26 2 4 5.02 41 0 43.0 38 24 5 29 42
Caden Monke L 26 4 5 4.89 40 0 53.3 52 29 6 31 44
Ben Sears R 26 2 3 5.14 38 0 56.0 60 32 8 20 36
Brandon Johnson R 27 3 4 5.13 46 1 59.7 60 34 9 27 51
Nicholas Regalado R 24 2 4 5.56 30 2 45.3 47 28 6 26 33
Beck Way R 26 3 7 5.54 37 5 66.7 68 41 8 38 45
Ethan Bosacker R 25 4 7 5.72 23 14 89.7 101 57 15 32 46
Natanael Garabitos R 25 1 4 6.03 32 0 34.3 36 23 5 25 24
Marlin Willis L 28 1 3 6.46 23 0 30.7 30 22 5 26 27

Pitchers – Advanced

Player IP K/9 BB/9 HR/9 BB% K% BABIP ERA+ 3ERA+ FIP ERA- WAR
Cole Ragans 118.0 11.3 3.1 0.9 8.4% 30.2% .294 119 116 3.10 84 2.2
Kris Bubic 106.0 8.9 3.0 0.8 7.8% 23.5% .299 117 116 3.48 85 1.9
Noah Cameron 141.3 7.8 2.8 1.2 7.4% 20.4% .284 102 104 4.22 98 1.7
Michael Wacha 147.0 6.9 2.6 1.1 6.9% 18.1% .282 102 96 4.19 98 1.7
Stephen Kolek 129.7 6.2 2.9 0.8 7.6% 16.1% .289 98 98 4.20 102 1.3
Seth Lugo 134.3 7.4 3.0 1.3 7.9% 19.4% .284 97 90 4.56 103 1.3
Hunter Harvey 47.3 9.5 2.3 0.8 6.2% 25.9% .288 137 132 3.04 73 1.0
Michael Lorenzen 130.0 7.1 3.3 1.4 8.4% 18.4% .277 91 87 4.78 110 0.9
Bailey Falter 118.3 6.3 3.0 1.2 7.9% 16.4% .277 93 93 4.58 108 0.9
Ryan Bergert 103.0 7.5 3.8 1.1 9.6% 19.2% .288 93 96 4.47 108 0.8
Luinder Avila 80.7 7.7 3.9 1.0 9.9% 19.5% .289 93 98 4.43 108 0.6
Kyle Wright 77.7 7.3 3.4 1.0 8.7% 18.8% .287 92 92 4.40 109 0.6
Daniel Lynch IV 97.3 6.9 3.1 1.2 7.8% 17.8% .293 96 95 4.50 104 0.6
Angel Zerpa 66.7 7.6 3.0 0.9 7.8% 19.8% .291 106 109 3.97 94 0.6
Jonathan Bowlan 80.7 8.3 3.2 1.1 8.4% 21.3% .296 98 99 4.13 102 0.6
Lucas Erceg 55.0 8.5 3.6 0.7 9.3% 22.0% .292 111 109 3.69 90 0.5
Ben Kudrna 100.3 6.9 4.0 1.1 10.1% 17.2% .292 86 92 4.68 116 0.4
Carlos Estévez 57.0 7.7 3.2 0.9 8.3% 20.4% .267 106 101 3.97 95 0.4
Hunter Owen 90.7 7.0 3.6 1.2 9.1% 17.9% .289 86 90 4.74 116 0.3
John Schreiber 56.7 8.4 3.2 1.0 8.4% 22.2% .285 105 102 3.89 95 0.3
Alex Lange 40.0 9.9 5.2 0.7 13.0% 24.9% .284 109 105 3.89 92 0.3
Alec Marsh 94.0 8.0 3.7 1.2 9.5% 20.5% .293 85 86 4.64 117 0.3
James McArthur 46.3 8.2 3.3 1.0 8.5% 21.0% .299 97 97 4.05 103 0.3
Mason Black 108.0 7.3 3.9 1.3 9.9% 18.4% .291 83 87 4.89 120 0.2
Steven Zobac 73.7 6.7 2.6 1.3 6.6% 17.4% .295 85 90 4.63 117 0.2
Hunter Patteson 94.7 6.1 2.9 1.3 7.5% 15.5% .292 83 87 4.81 120 0.2
Tyson Guerrero 81.0 7.4 3.9 1.3 9.9% 18.9% .289 83 85 4.99 120 0.2
Steven Cruz 52.3 8.3 4.0 0.9 10.2% 21.2% .281 101 104 4.06 99 0.2
Chandler Champlain 113.3 6.0 3.2 1.2 8.0% 15.3% .296 83 87 4.76 120 0.2
Spencer Turnbull 64.3 6.4 3.8 1.1 9.4% 16.1% .297 83 80 4.89 121 0.1
Jonathan Heasley 76.3 6.1 3.2 1.3 8.1% 15.5% .288 84 85 4.85 119 0.1
Dallas Keuchel 55.0 5.6 3.8 1.1 9.1% 13.5% .314 82 75 4.89 122 0.1
John Gant 66.7 6.1 3.9 1.4 9.6% 14.9% .296 81 77 5.16 123 0.0
Henry Williams 96.3 6.3 3.6 1.3 9.1% 15.6% .289 80 85 5.09 125 0.0
Ryan Ramsey 92.7 6.9 4.1 1.3 10.1% 17.1% .291 81 85 5.11 123 0.0
Shane Panzini 86.0 7.0 4.4 1.4 10.8% 17.3% .294 81 86 5.18 123 0.0
Taylor Clarke 54.3 7.0 2.7 1.3 6.8% 17.9% .291 90 86 4.53 111 0.0
Stephen Nogosek 47.3 7.6 4.4 1.1 11.0% 19.1% .290 88 87 4.77 114 0.0
Eric Cerantola 54.3 9.1 4.6 1.2 11.5% 22.6% .288 90 95 4.64 111 0.0
Oscar Rayo 73.7 5.7 3.1 1.2 7.8% 14.7% .288 85 90 4.87 118 -0.1
Ryan Brady 47.0 6.5 3.1 1.1 7.7% 16.4% .299 87 91 4.59 115 -0.1
Cruz Noriega 49.7 6.3 3.6 1.3 9.0% 15.8% .295 82 84 4.92 122 -0.1
Anthony Simonelli 47.0 7.9 4.2 1.3 10.5% 19.5% .292 87 89 4.95 115 -0.1
A.J. Causey 64.3 7.3 3.4 1.1 8.6% 18.7% .284 93 99 4.47 107 -0.1
Justin Dunn 50.7 6.9 4.8 1.4 11.7% 17.0% .283 76 76 5.69 132 -0.2
Nate Ackenhausen 39.7 7.7 4.8 1.1 11.9% 19.2% .287 83 89 4.83 120 -0.2
Rich Hill 80.0 7.4 4.1 1.6 10.1% 18.6% .294 77 73 5.29 130 -0.2
Nick Robertson 47.7 8.1 4.5 1.1 11.2% 20.1% .297 88 92 4.63 114 -0.2
Sam Long 52.3 7.4 4.5 1.2 11.1% 18.3% .290 87 85 4.86 115 -0.3
Joey Krehbiel 49.3 5.8 3.5 1.3 8.7% 14.7% .291 85 82 4.93 118 -0.3
Chazz Martinez 62.0 7.4 4.2 1.2 10.4% 18.3% .293 87 91 4.89 115 -0.3
Frank Mozzicato 85.7 6.4 5.8 1.3 13.6% 15.1% .289 75 81 5.59 134 -0.4
Christian Chamberlain 43.0 8.8 6.1 1.0 14.6% 21.2% .282 83 86 5.16 121 -0.4
Caden Monke 53.3 7.4 5.2 1.0 12.7% 18.0% .291 85 88 4.94 117 -0.4
Ben Sears 56.0 5.8 3.2 1.3 8.2% 14.7% .289 81 85 5.02 123 -0.5
Brandon Johnson 59.7 7.7 4.1 1.4 10.2% 19.2% .291 81 84 4.92 123 -0.5
Nicholas Regalado 45.3 6.6 5.2 1.2 12.3% 15.6% .293 75 79 5.48 133 -0.6
Beck Way 66.7 6.1 5.1 1.1 12.3% 14.6% .286 75 78 5.53 133 -0.6
Ethan Bosacker 89.7 4.6 3.2 1.5 8.1% 11.6% .286 73 77 5.55 137 -0.6
Natanael Garabitos 34.3 6.3 6.6 1.3 14.9% 14.3% .290 69 74 6.19 145 -0.7
Marlin Willis 30.7 7.9 7.6 1.5 17.0% 17.6% .284 65 67 6.55 155 -0.8

Pitchers – Top Near-Age Comps

Pitchers – Splits and Percentiles

Player BA vs. L OBP vs. L SLG vs. L BA vs. R OBP vs. R SLG vs. R 80th WAR 20th WAR 80th ERA 20th ERA
Cole Ragans .241 .301 .384 .204 .276 .333 3.2 1.1 2.85 4.29
Kris Bubic .250 .309 .370 .234 .297 .365 2.7 1.1 2.98 4.19
Noah Cameron .218 .282 .387 .257 .316 .421 2.6 0.7 3.62 4.67
Michael Wacha .235 .295 .377 .265 .315 .434 2.5 0.8 3.66 4.68
Stephen Kolek .254 .325 .390 .255 .318 .387 2.1 0.6 3.76 4.74
Seth Lugo .255 .328 .448 .251 .304 .414 2.1 0.3 3.75 5.02
Hunter Harvey .226 .293 .369 .226 .270 .333 1.5 0.4 2.34 4.38
Michael Lorenzen .246 .324 .431 .257 .315 .439 1.6 -0.1 4.09 5.26
Bailey Falter .264 .309 .419 .250 .315 .419 1.6 0.1 4.04 5.11
Ryan Bergert .254 .333 .418 .245 .316 .396 1.5 0.1 3.92 4.99
Luinder Avila .246 .338 .381 .244 .325 .406 1.1 0.0 3.93 5.01
Kyle Wright .260 .339 .473 .236 .309 .331 1.2 0.1 3.95 5.16
Daniel Lynch IV .247 .315 .381 .263 .324 .436 1.2 -0.1 3.88 5.11
Angel Zerpa .239 .299 .352 .251 .317 .404 1.1 0.1 3.34 4.56
Jonathan Bowlan .248 .318 .418 .246 .311 .394 1.0 -0.1 3.75 5.11
Lucas Erceg .235 .333 .367 .232 .304 .330 1.1 -0.2 3.09 4.65
Ben Kudrna .250 .330 .383 .256 .337 .425 0.9 -0.2 4.45 5.40
Carlos Estévez .238 .316 .376 .227 .289 .373 1.0 -0.3 3.18 5.00
Hunter Owen .230 .304 .320 .264 .342 .457 0.9 -0.3 4.36 5.46
John Schreiber .258 .330 .423 .220 .290 .339 0.9 -0.4 3.17 5.17
Alex Lange .209 .329 .328 .222 .333 .333 0.7 -0.2 3.07 4.85
Alec Marsh .273 .351 .460 .225 .309 .374 0.9 -0.4 4.30 5.52
James McArthur .250 .330 .393 .242 .309 .384 0.6 -0.2 3.68 5.09
Mason Black .233 .333 .402 .273 .342 .441 1.0 -0.5 4.48 5.62
Steven Zobac .281 .342 .489 .250 .301 .406 0.8 -0.3 4.24 5.57
Hunter Patteson .235 .281 .361 .280 .342 .477 0.7 -0.4 4.56 5.63
Tyson Guerrero .253 .333 .391 .255 .341 .450 0.8 -0.5 4.38 5.63
Steven Cruz .216 .303 .330 .245 .333 .391 0.5 -0.3 3.64 4.88
Chandler Champlain .266 .336 .442 .270 .330 .430 1.1 -0.5 4.42 5.55
Spencer Turnbull .266 .349 .430 .262 .340 .408 0.5 -0.3 4.47 5.76
Jonathan Heasley .262 .331 .440 .267 .328 .447 0.5 -0.4 4.50 5.59
Dallas Keuchel .255 .309 .353 .291 .358 .469 0.4 -0.3 4.48 5.88
John Gant .270 .353 .467 .268 .333 .436 0.4 -0.5 4.63 5.84
Henry Williams .252 .339 .380 .270 .339 .477 0.5 -0.6 4.80 5.76
Ryan Ramsey .252 .347 .430 .262 .347 .431 0.5 -0.7 4.67 5.79
Shane Panzini .267 .366 .453 .259 .332 .435 0.5 -0.6 4.67 5.72
Taylor Clarke .263 .327 .434 .261 .306 .435 0.4 -0.5 3.94 5.52
Stephen Nogosek .250 .351 .429 .248 .330 .386 0.4 -0.5 4.13 5.75
Eric Cerantola .211 .314 .344 .252 .353 .429 0.5 -0.4 3.93 5.33
Oscar Rayo .261 .327 .409 .267 .333 .447 0.3 -0.7 4.38 5.58
Ryan Brady .259 .326 .400 .267 .328 .438 0.2 -0.6 4.25 5.65
Cruz Noriega .256 .340 .411 .275 .333 .459 0.2 -0.6 4.54 5.98
Anthony Simonelli .256 .356 .410 .252 .331 .449 0.2 -0.6 4.18 5.55
A.J. Causey .284 .354 .474 .215 .291 .341 0.4 -0.6 3.90 5.15
Justin Dunn .266 .391 .468 .250 .336 .423 0.2 -0.6 4.88 6.17
Nate Ackenhausen .213 .327 .298 .259 .347 .454 0.1 -0.5 4.38 5.70
Rich Hill .253 .352 .400 .266 .339 .480 0.4 -0.9 4.72 6.24
Nick Robertson .253 .340 .410 .245 .336 .406 0.2 -0.7 4.07 5.55
Sam Long .242 .329 .379 .259 .346 .439 0.1 -0.8 4.24 5.80
Joey Krehbiel .262 .330 .393 .274 .336 .478 0.0 -0.7 4.32 5.67
Chazz Martinez .257 .349 .351 .251 .342 .439 0.2 -0.8 4.13 5.51
Frank Mozzicato .274 .386 .411 .255 .356 .441 0.2 -1.0 5.06 6.20
Christian Chamberlain .218 .358 .309 .241 .371 .426 0.0 -0.7 4.26 5.76
Caden Monke .230 .351 .361 .255 .353 .409 0.0 -0.8 4.30 5.63
Ben Sears .250 .315 .400 .278 .348 .460 -0.2 -0.9 4.58 5.78
Brandon Johnson .255 .342 .422 .254 .331 .433 -0.1 -1.0 4.59 5.90
Nicholas Regalado .288 .400 .475 .238 .339 .386 -0.3 -0.9 5.02 6.13
Beck Way .287 .399 .443 .236 .349 .399 -0.2 -1.2 4.98 6.38
Ethan Bosacker .273 .344 .429 .282 .341 .505 -0.1 -1.2 5.23 6.29
Natanael Garabitos .276 .408 .448 .256 .379 .449 -0.4 -1.0 5.45 7.00
Marlin Willis .250 .400 .361 .250 .402 .476 -0.4 -1.1 5.56 7.69

Players are listed with their most recent teams wherever possible. This includes players who are unsigned or have retired, players who will miss 2026 due to injury, and players who were released in 2025. So yes, if you see Joe Schmoe, who quit baseball back in August to form a Ambient Math-Rock Trip-Hop Yacht Metal band that only performs in abandoned malls, he’s still listed here intentionally. ZiPS is assuming a league with an ERA of 4.16.

Hitters are ranked by zWAR, which is to say, WAR values as calculated by me, Dan Szymborski, whose surname is spelled with a z. WAR values might differ slightly from those that appear in the full release of ZiPS. Finally, I will advise anyone against — and might karate chop anyone guilty of — merely adding up WAR totals on a depth chart to produce projected team WAR. It is important to remember that ZiPS is agnostic about playing time, and has no information about, for example, how quickly a team will call up a prospect or what veteran has fallen into disfavor.

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As always, incorrect projections are either caused by misinformation, a non-pragmatic reality, or by the skillful sabotage of our friend and former editor. You can, however, still get mad at me on Twitter or on Bluesky. This last is, however, not an actual requirement.





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Chiefs 7-round mock draft: How Kansas City could rebuild for 2026

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Chiefs 7-round mock draft: How Kansas City could rebuild for 2026


KSHB 41 reporter Tod Palmer covers sports business and eastern Jackson County, including Independence. Share your story idea with Tod.

It’s not sexy. I know it’s not sexy. But I’ve come around to the idea that the Kansas City Chiefs will pick an offensive tackle in the first round of the 2026 NFL Draft for the second consecutive year.

Trading back a few spots from No. 9 and picking up an extra second-round pick, an option that popped up on a couple mock-draft simulations, would be ideal, in my opinion, but it remains to be seen if the right scenario materializes Thursday in Pittsburgh.

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Maybe the Chiefs get lucky and Ohio State wide receiver Carnell Tate falls into their lap. His downfield ball-tracking skills would energize Kansas City’s offense, but I don’t see him sliding that far.

General Manager Brett Veach singled out four positions Thursday when asked for his thoughts about Kansas City’s first first-round pick — defensive back, offensive line, edge rusher and receiver — so it’s a good bet that’s the player pool from which the Chiefs will be picking.

“We need help in all of those areas,” Veach said. “I do think that we will be in a position there to get one of those players and then add throughout the course of the draft.”

Chiefs GM Brett Veach looks ahead to 2026 NFL Draft in Pittsburgh

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The Chiefs may have some intriguing defensive-back options, including Ohio State safety Caleb Downs or LSU cornerback Mansoor Delane.

But the most mocked player to Kansas City is Miami (Florida) edge Rueben Bain Jr., who set the College Football Playoff on fire.

If the Chiefs aren’t sold on Bain and find a partner to move back a few spots, picking the top remaining offensive tackle on their board, USC wide receiver Makai Lemon or Oregon tight end Kenyon Sadiq would be solid choices in that 12 to 16 range.

But if Kansas City stays put, Veach seemed to hint that OL may be a priority.

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“I think you’re going to get a massive run of offensive linemen from 10 to 20, 25,” Veach said. “I think there are numbers there, but when you get to pick 35, those numbers quickly diminish, and then there’s a big fall off.”

Veach suggested edge rusher as a position with depth into the third round, which could be a ruse, or signal that the Chiefs’ staff is locked in on adding to the offensive line earlier than expected.

Last season’s first-round pick, Josh Simmons, showed flashes as a rookie after winning the left tackle job, but health has been an issue for him two years in a row now (at Ohio State and in the NFL). Jaylon Moore is a serviceable option at right tackle after Jawaan Taylor was released, but he needs to clean up his technique in pass protection.

Depth is a major issue with Esa Pole, Wanya Morris and Ethan Driskell listed as the primary backups at offensive tackle.

Some simulations I ran had the top eight OT prospects gone before the Chiefs’ second pick at No. 29, which is why adding another quality piece — even if it’s in the top 10 — would make a lot of sense.

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“Offensive line, there is some talent there, but I do think it dries up quickly and by 35 it could be slim pickings,” Veach said.

FIRST ROUND

Michael Laughlin/AP

Miami defensive lineman Rueben Bain Jr., left, does a football workout during the school’s NFL pro day, Monday March 23, 2026, in Coral Gables, Fla. (AP Photo/Michael Laughlin)

No. 9 overall — DE Rueben Bain Jr., Miami (Florida)

The Chiefs haven’t picked this high since snagging Eric Fisher from Central Michigan with the first overall pick in 2013.

If Steve Spagnuolo loves Bain’s motor and production enough to overlook questions* about his frame, I think he’s the pick, if available.

*Editor’s note: It doesn’t seem like the deadly March 2024 crash will impact Bain’s draft stock substantially. NFL evaluators apparently have known about it much longer than it’s been public.

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Of the 11 NFL defenses with at least 100 quarterback hits last season, only Baltimore converted that pressure into fewer sacks.

Kansas City’s 35 sacks in 2025 were tied for 22nd in the league. Advanced metrics — like QB knockdown and pressure percentages, per Pro Football Reference — were more kind, but the Chiefs also had the third-highest blitz percentage (31.3%).

Generating pass-rush production from the front four would take pressure off the secondary and improve the unit’s third-down defense, which was a glaring weakness a season ago.

Bain was productive from the moment he walked onto the Hurricanes’ campus, racking up 33 1/2 tackles for loss and 20 1/2 sacks in 38 career games.

That said, if Tate or Downs are available, I would be tempted, even if Bain is there, given concerns that his short arms will limit his pass-rush ability in the NFL.

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The Chiefs’ deep passing game has disappeared since trading away Tyreek Hill. Tate possesses the elite downfield ball-tracking skills to help Patrick Mahomes conjure magic again, especially if Kenneth Walker III forces teams to play the offense more honestly.

Meanwhile, Downs would be an ideal addition to Spags’ defense.

I get that safety isn’t a “premium” position and it would fly in the face of Veach’s traditional draft strategy, but Downs possesses the versatility, elite instincts, sure tackling, coverage skills, leadership and football IQ to thrive in Kansas City.

Safety is also a position of need with Bryan Cook’s departure and a position the Chiefs have splurged at in the past (Tyrann Mathieu and Justin Reid), so I wouldn’t rule it out.

If Bain, Downs and Tate aren’t available, I think Kansas City goes for its favorite tackle prospect, perhaps Utah’s Spencer Fano or Miami’s Francis Mauigoa.

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Personally, I prefer Fano, who appears to be slightly quicker and was a better finisher on tape, but I trust the Chiefs’ evaluation. Given Simmons’ health/injury history and Moore’s inconsistency in pass protection, it wouldn’t be a bad decision, especially with Mahomes coming off major knee surgery.

Delane also would be an option, but — assuming Downs and Tate are gone — Bain or a tackle prospect seems more likely.

In reality, after the top three picks, the draft could get really weird, really fast, so it’s hard to forecast what the board will look like when the Chiefs pick.

Furman Clemson Football

Jacob Kupferman/AP

Clemson offensive lineman Blake Miller (78) looks on before an NCAA college football game between Clemson and Furman on Saturday, Nov. 22, 2025, in Clemson, S.C.

No. 29 overall — OT Blake Miller, Clemson

Acquired from Los Angeles Rams in Trent McDuffie trade

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Obviously, the first pick will influence the Chiefs’ decision later, but I’m convinced Veach will address offensive tackle in the first round — and prepared to be wrong about that.

But Kansas City wants to build from the trenches, and Miller will push for the right tackle job immediately upon entering the building.

If the Chiefs prefer Utah’s Caleb Lomu, moving up could be an option.

Similarly, if Arizona State wide receiver Jordyn Tyson slides because of injury concerns, Veach may pounce. It’s too big a risk at No. 9, in my opinion, but Kansas City has shown itself to be more comfortable with complicated medical histories than a lot of teams.

Tennessee cornerback Colton Hood or Ohio State defensive tackle Kayden McDonald also make sense at the end of the first round.

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SECOND ROUND

SEC Draft Talent Football

John Raoux/AP

FILE – Florida defensive lineman Caleb Banks (88) sacks LSU quarterback Garrett Nussmeier (13) during the second half of an NCAA college football game, Saturday, Nov. 16, 2024, in Gainesville, Fla.

No. 40 overall — DT Caleb Banks, Florida

The trend continues with another addition in the trenches.

Depending on how the board falls, Missouri’s Zion Young could be an option if the Chiefs haven’t addressed edge rusher yet. Veach made it clear the team needs to get younger and add multiple pieces on the defensive interior as well, even after signing Khyiris Tonga.

Banks offers uncommon athleticism for the position, giving him a degree of pass-rush upside from defensive tackle that the draft is lacking overall.

Honestly, it’s a terrible draft for DTs, but Banks might have the most raw talent of the bunch. He didn’t break out as expected in 2025, and the history of foot injuries is a concern, which may push him into the Chiefs’ range early in the second round.

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THIRD ROUND

Georgia St Football

Mark Humphrey/AP

Georgia State wide receiver Ted Hurst (1) plays against Vanderbilt during an NCAA football game on Saturday, Sept. 20, 2025, in Nashville, Tenn.

No. 74 overall — WR Ted Hurst, Georgia State

This feels like the sweet spot for a potential impact wide receiver if Kansas City doesn’t land one in the first round.

I went with Hurst, a 6-foot-4 late bloomer with an insane catch radius. He’s been climbing draft boards fast after a strong Combine showing, and there are concerns about drops, but he’s improved every season in college and brings natural ball-tracking skill combined with size and speed.

Ole Miss’ De’Zhaun Stribling and Indiana’s Elijah Sarratt also could be options in this range, if the Chiefs want to add a big-bodied receiver.

Stribling is the fastest of the bunch, while Hurst has a ridiculous 79 7/8-inch wingspan in addition to being the youngest of the bunch.

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Meanwhile, all Sarratt did was produce, including 118 catches for 1,787 yards with 23 touchdowns in two seasons at Indiana. He had 44 touchdown catches overall in four seasons, including a season at Saint Francis (Pennsylvania) and one at James Madison, before joining Curt Cignetti when he moved to the Hoosiers.

If the Chiefs are looking for a smaller receiver with elite speed, Mississippi State’s Brenen Thompson fits the bill. He didn’t do much as a freshman at Texas or in two seasons at Oklahoma, but Brenen broke out last season with the Bulldogs.

This is also the projected range for Georgia’s Zachariah Branch, who is smaller but could handle slot-receiver duties, unlike Thompson.

FOURTH ROUND

Illinois Washington Football

Lindsey Wasson/AP

Washington cornerback Tacario Davis points before a play against Illinois during an NCAA college football game, Saturday, Oct. 25, 2025, in Seattle.

No. 109 overall — CB Tacario Davis, Washington

“Bobo” Davis has the size and aggression the Chiefs covet at the outside corner spot.

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After trading McDuffie to the Rams, who also signed Jaylen Watson, Kansas City needs to address the cornerback spot.

The Chiefs, with Dave Merritt providing instruction, have thrived with middle- to late-round talent in the secondary and have some unique clay to work with in Davis.

FIFTH ROUND

dl25

Julio Cortez/AP

Southeastern Louisiana defensive lineman Kaleb Proctor (25) runs a drill at the NFL football scouting combine in Indianapolis, Thursday, Feb. 26, 2026.

No. 148 — DT Kaleb Proctor, Southeastern Louisiana

Proctor is a raw prospect and on the small side, but he’s got some athleticism and instincts to blossom with NFL coaching.

Veach won’t hesitate to take multiple bites at the D-line apple if needed — and it’s needed.

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In this photograph taken with a slow shutter speed, Stephen F. Austin defensive back Charles Demmings (07) runs the 40-yard dash at the NFL football scouting combine in Indianapolis, Friday, Feb. 27, 2026.

No. 169 — CB Charles Demmings, Stephen F. Austin

Acquired from Los Angeles Rams in Trent McDuffie trade

Demmings has good size (6 feet, 1 inch) and speed (4.41 40-yard dash) for the position.

Despite playing at a lower level, he showed the production you’d expect from a future NFL contributor with 31 passes defended and eight interceptions in 32 games across his last three college seasons.

Indiana Football

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Indiana linebacker Aiden Fisher (4) during an NCAA football game against Michigan St, Saturday, Oct. 18, 2025 in Bloomington, Ind.

No. 176 — LB Aiden Fisher, Indiana

Compensatory pick

He’s not an elite athlete by NFL standards, but he was a tackling machine and unquestioned leader for the national champion Hoosiers.

That pedigree, production married with intangibles, has worked for the Chiefs before.

Fisher has drawn comparisons to Drue Tranquill.

BYU’s Jack Kelly might also be an option in this range among linebacker prospects.

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I also wouldn’t be stunned if the Chiefs explore a running back in the fifth round.

SIXTH ROUND

Maryland Rutgers Football

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Maryland defensive back Jalen Huskey (22) reacts before the first half of an NCAA college football game against Rutgers, Saturday, Nov. 8, 2025, in Piscataway, N.J.

No. 210 — S Jalen Huskey, Maryland

Acquired from Los Angeles Rams in Trent McDuffie trade

Based on previous picks, there are several ways I could go here — safety feels like the most glaring unplugged hole, but a running back or another receiver also makes a lot of sense.

It’s a dart throw at this stage of the draft, so I went with Huskey.

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He had 11 interceptions in 36 games during his last three collegiate seasons, including his second season at Bowling Green and two as a starter for the Terrapins.

Tod Palmer





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Kansas

Tyler Reddick needs OT at Kansas to claim fifth win of NASCAR season

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Tyler Reddick needs OT at Kansas to claim fifth win of NASCAR season


It’s still more than a week until May, but Tyler Reddick already has racked up a fistful of wins.

The 23XI Racing hotshoe passed Kyle Larson in overtime to win the NASCAR Cup Series’ AdventHealth 400 on Sunday afternoon in Kansas City, Kansas, for his fifth victory in nine races.

After Cody Ware spun while leader Denny Hamlin and second-place Reddick were coming to the white flag for the race’s only caution for cause, the field pitted to set up a green-white-checker finish in overtime at Kansas Speedway.

From third, Larson charged past Hamlin on the restart to claim the lead. But second-place Reddick used his No. 45 Toyota to fly by Larson’s No. 5 Chevrolet in Turn 1 after the white flag.

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He held on to beat the Hendrick Motorsports driver by 0.118 seconds for his 13th career win and become the first driver since Dale Earnhardt in 1987 to claim five of a season’s first nine races.

Reddick also won for the fourth time in a row when being the polesitter — a run that began Feb. 22 in Atlanta and included victories at Circuit of The Americas and Darlington.

Reddick appeared doomed with a few laps left when he screamed over the radio that he was out of gas, which allowed Hamlin to make what appeared to be the winning pass for the lead.

However, Ware’s spin sent the cars to pit road one last time.

“Just really blessed with the late caution,” said Reddick, who led only 10 laps and spun a Toyota stablemate in overtime’s frantic finish. “Not thrilled that I got Christopher Bell. … These late-race restarts get really crazy. Obviously, I had a run on the 5, and I was just shocked to get to his inside.”

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Larson’s car would not turn in the corners.

“It all worked out great, but I was plowing in (Turns) 3 and 4,” said Larson, the race’s defending winner who became the track’s all-time lap leader — he paced 78 of them — but had his winless streak stretch to 33 races. “Reddick was really good there (at the end).”

Chase Briscoe, Hamlin and Bubba Wallace completed the first five finishers.

A Toyota won for the sixth time in the past 11 races at the Midwest speedway.

Polesitter Reddick, Hamlin and Briscoe showed Toyota supremacy early with the first two drivers swapping the lead. Then Hamlin stormed away to a 1.25-second lead 15 circuits into the 267-lap race.

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Hamlin lapped up to the 21st-place car — Todd Gilliland — as drivers such as Joey Logano, Kyle Busch and Ross Chastain all were put a lap down. Larson was able to pass Reddick, but Hamlin claimed the 80-lap Stage 1 over Larson followed by Reddick, Ty Gibbs and Christopher Bell.

In the second segment, Larson began to assert himself. He immediately snatched the point from Hamlin and led until Lap 125 when he, Hamlin, Chase Elliott and Reddick pitted to split Stage 2’s 85 laps.

The completion of the second stage also was rather tame. Larson claimed the segment followed by Hamlin, Reddick, Elliot and Bell as the only problems were drivers having minor setbacks with tires.

The only cautions through the first two stages were for stage-breaks, not incidents.

On Lap 175 shortly after the restart for the run to the race’s end, Bell maneuvered by Hamlin for the lead. Wallace and Reddick rounded out a four-car Camry train with six of the top nine being Toyotas.

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Running third to leader Bell and Reddick, Hamlin and Joe Gibbs Racing teammate Briscoe began the cycle of pits with 52 laps remaining to set up the finish while Reddick and Bell waited five more circuits for service.



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Kansas

Kansas Governor signs Caleb’s Law, targeting online sextortion of minors

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Kansas Governor signs Caleb’s Law, targeting online sextortion of minors


KANSAS CITY, Mo. (KCTV) – Kansas Governor Laura Kelly has signed Caleb’s Law, strengthening penalties for online sexual extortion targeting children.

Governor Kelly says the law is named after Caleb Moore, a 14-year-old from El Dorado, who died by suicide after becoming a victim of an online sextortion scheme.

What the Law Does

Caleb’s Law expands Kansas’s existing sexual extortion statute in three key ways:

  • Broadens the definition of sexual extortion to include threats involving explicit images – including AI-generated or digitally altered images
  • Increase criminal penalties when an adult offender targets a minor or a dependent adult
  • Creates two felony offenses: aggravated sexual extortion causing great bodily harm and aggravated sexual extortion causing death

Under the new law, sexual extortion involving a minor or dependent adult is elevated from a severity level 7 to a severity level 6 person felony for coercive intent cases.

The legislation also elevates a level 4 to a level 3 person felony when the victim is caused to produce or distribute sexual content.

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Statewide Education Requirements

House Bill 2537 also directs the Kansas Attorney General to lead a statewide public education effort on sextortion. The AG’s office will:

  • Prepare and distribute educational materials for schools, students, parents and the public
  • Collaborate with the Kansas State Board of Education and law enforcement agencies
  • File an annual report beginning July 1, 2027, to the Governor, legislative leadership and the State Board of Education on implementation progress
FILE – Kansas Statehouse(Phil Anderson)

The Attorney General’s Office estimates the education effort will require two new positions at a cost of around $213,900 from the State General Fund, rising to an estimated $20,300 in 2028.

In Their Own Words

Gov. Kelly said the law reflects the state’s commitment to keeping pace with digital threats facing children.

“Protecting Kansas children means staying ahead of the evolving threats they face, especially in an increasingly digital world where exploitation can happen in an instant,” she said. “By prioritizing education and awareness, Caleb’s Law ensures that young people, families, and educators have the tools to recognize sexual extortion and seek help before it’s too late. By signing this bill, we’re honoring Caleb’s life by shining a light on this growing danger and taking meaningful action to prevent future tragedies.”

Rep. Bob Lewis (R-Garden City), who introduced the bill, added that it earned unanimous bipartisan support in both chambers.

“Our kids are our future and protecting them from online predators, who are increasingly dangerous and sophisticated, must be a top legislative priority,” he stated. “I’m therefore pleased that the governor is signing Caleb’s Law, which I introduced and received unanimous, bipartisan support in both legislative chambers. What happened to Caleb is tragic and must be stopped.”

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Rep. Dan Osman (D-Overland Park) credited Caleb Moore’s family for pushing the legislation forward.

“Sexual extortion in any form should never be tolerated, but children under the age of 18 are particularly vulnerable,” he added.

The Kansas Attorney General’s Office also voiced strong support, noting the law addresses one of the state’s most urgent child safety threats.

Kansas State Capitol, Topeka, Kan.
Kansas State Capitol, Topeka, Kan.(Isaac Deer/WIBW)

“HB 2537 is a critical measure to protect Kansans from sexual exploitation and ensure public awareness and education on this growing threat,” said Sarah Hortenstine, Division Chief of Youth Services, Kansas Office of the Attorney General.

Legislative Timeline

Date Action
Jan. 23 Bill introduced, referred to House Committee on Judiciary
Feb. 5 House committee hearing held
Feb. 16 Committee recommends passage
Feb. 18 House passes bill unanimously
Feb. 25 Referred to Senate Committee on Judiciary
March 17 Senate committee hearing held
March 18 Senate committee recommends passage
March 19 Senate passes bill unanimously

The bill received unanimous, bipartisan support in both chambers – with no recorded opposition.

Background: What Is Sextortion?

Officials noted that sextortion is a form of online exploitation in which offenders coerce victims – often minors – into producing sexual images.

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Those bad actors then use the images to demand more content, money, or sexual acts, according to investigators.

State leaders said cases can escalate rapidly, and the resulting trauma has led to severe psychological harm and, in some cases, suicide.

If you or someone you know needs help, contact the National Center for Missing & Exploited Children at 1-800-843-5678.

For mental health support, call or text 988 to reach the Suicide & Crisis Lifeline.

Copyright 2026 KCTV. All rights reserved.

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