Iowa
Worried about losing in 2024, Iowa's Republican voters are less interested in talking about abortion
DES MOINES, Iowa (AP) — A man in Iowa stood up at a recent town hall and told Ron DeSantis he had an “easy” question: How would the Florida governor address abortion when it’s sure to be a big issue in the coming 2024 presidential election?
DeSantis said he’d talk about it “the same way I did in Florida. I just articulated kind of, you know, where we were, what we do.”
He continued for nearly four minutes without using the word “abortion.” He instead criticized his rival Donald Trump for failing to appear in debates and Nikki Haley for her campaign trail gaffes.
Abortion has largely been absent as an issue in the lead-up to this year’s Iowa Republican caucuses, a remarkable change in a state that has long backed religious conservatives vowing to restrict the procedure. Part of the change is because Republicans achieved a generational goal when the Supreme Court overturned a federally guaranteed right to abortion. But it also underscores a pervasive fear among Republican candidates and voters alike that vocalizing their desire to further restrict abortion rights in 2024 has become politically dangerous.
Democrats outperformed expectations in the 2022 midterms and several state races last year campaigning on the issue. And President Joe Biden’s reelection campaign plans to make abortion rights central to its strategy this year.
“At this stage, if we’re going to continually lose elections because of that issue, I’d say dump the whole damn thing and let God be the judge,” said Greg Jennings, a 68-year-old retired painting contractor from Clear Lake, Iowa, who was attending a rally for Trump.
In interviews with more than two dozen GOP voters around the state in the past week, almost none cited abortion as one of their top issues this election year, instead pointing to concerns about the border, the economy or America’s standing in the world. That’s not to say there aren’t strong exceptions among some evangelical voters who represent a core segment of the Republican base.
Brian Downes, a Winterset Iowa resident, said abortion is a “huge” issue for him. He said he would only change his plans to caucus for Trump next Monday if the former president reversed course and embraced the pro-choice movement.
Downes urged his party not to ignore their opposition to abortion rights.
“Pro-life presidents have won going, let’s say, going back to Ronald Reagan. Always pro-life. The Bushes, pro-life. Trump pro-life,” he said. “They won. That didn’t cancel any of them. So that’s just an old story that just won’t die.”
But Downes appears to be in the minority.
Cindy Leonhart, a 68-year-old wearing a DeSantis button on her shirt after she heard the governor speak last Friday, said she doesn’t believe that abortion should be legal but said: “It’s not a decisive issue for me.”
Earlier in the Iowa campaign, DeSantis and some others in the primary criticized Trump for refusing to endorse a national abortion ban. Trump has at times highlighted his role as president in appointing the Supreme Court justices who helped overturn Roe v. Wade. But he’s also argued Republicans shouldn’t lock themselves into positions that are unpopular with a majority of the public and argued that the Supreme Court gave abortion opponents the right to “negotiate” restrictions where they live.
DeSantis and other GOP hopefuls now increasingly speak of a need for “compassion” for women. Asked about a six-week ban he signed in Florida, DeSantis this week on Fox News defended the law as protecting life and that it was “compassionate to be able to respect that and to be able to protect that going forward.”
Haley, the former U.N. ambassador and South Carolina governor, has repeatedly said that she would sign any national abortion restrictions passed by Congress if elected president, but that Republicans are unlikely to have enough seats or supportive members in their ranks to pass them.
“The fellas just don’t know how to talk about it. Instead of demonizing this issue, you have to humanize this issue,” she said in a separate Fox News event this week. Haley is the only woman in the Republican primary field.
Trump, in a Fox News town hall of his own Wednesday night, took credit for having “terminated” Roe and told a woman who opposed abortion and asked about the issue that he “loved” where she was coming from but “we still have to win elections.”
He blamed DeSantis’ ban at six weeks for the governor’s stagnant poll numbers and said, “If you talk five or six weeks, a lot of women don’t know that they’re pregnant in five or six weeks. I want to get something where people are happy.”
Angela Roemerman, who attended a Haley event last week, described herself as pro-life but said she doesn’t like how ugly the politics of abortion have become.
“It used to be an issue for me,” said the 56-year-old from Solon, Iowa. “I guess it’s not a real hot-button issue today.”
“Women in general are getting smarter about birth control and about how everything works,” she said.
At a campaign rally in Newton on Saturday, Trump didn’t dive into the issue on stage, but his campaign handed out fliers that touted his appointments to the court and spotlighted a 2020 quote from his former Vice President Mike Pence, calling him “the most pro-life president in history.” Pence, whom Trump has repeatedly attacked for refusing to try to overturn his former boss’ 2020 election loss, dropped out of the primary last year after criticizing Trump for not endorsing a national abortion ban.
Steve Scheffler, the Iowa GOP’s Republican National Committeeman and president of the Iowa Faith and Freedom Coalition, said that if the Supreme Court hadn’t overturned Roe, the issue would probably be more pressing in this presidential race.
But Scheffler said Iowa voters may feel that with the court’s ruling and a law signed by GOP Gov. Kim Reynolds last year banning abortion after six weeks, the state’s Republicans may feel they’ve “kind of addressed that.”
“It’s an issue that’s very important to these evangelical voters but because that’s where we’re at here in Iowa, I suppose maybe there’s other issues that are really important right now,” Scheffler said.
Dan Corbin of Cedar Falls, the voter who put DeSantis on the spot at his town hall, said afterward that whether Republicans want to talk about it or not, Democrats have made it clear they will press the issue in 2024.
Corbin, who plans to caucus for Haley, said he likes the way she speaks about the issue and that Republicans overall “need to have a strategic approach” and not “demonize women that are having to make that decision.”
“I don’t believe in abortion in any way, shape or form,” he said, “But I think it’s going to make the Republicans less attractive.”
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Associated Press writers Meg Kinnard, Jill Colvin and Nathan Ellgren in Des Moines, Iowa and Jonathan Cooper in Phoenix contributed to this report.
There is a 4-way tie atop our season standings between John Steppe, Jeff Johnson, Rob Gray and Beth Malicki
The Gazette offers audio versions of articles using Instaread. Some words may be mispronounced.
The Gazette’s Pick ‘Ems for Week 13 of the college football season including long road trips for Iowa and Iowa State and the top-five showdown between Indiana and Ohio State.
Iowa (6-4, 4-3 Big Ten) at Maryland (4-6, 1-6)
11 a.m. Saturday (BTN)
Line: Iowa -6.5
Mike Hlas (2-1, 24-12) — Iowa’s No. 3 quarterback for this game is a Maryland blue crab. Iowa 24, Maryland 14
John Steppe (2-1, 26-10) — My editors are excited for a deadline-friendly 11 a.m. start. I’m just excited to use Washington’s outstanding Metro system. Iowa 20, Maryland 13
Jeff Johnson (3-0, 26-10) — Hey, Coach Ferentz. I’ve got some eligibility remaining if you need a quarterback. I specialize in the Tush Push. Maryland 21, Iowa 17
Rob Gray (3-0, 26-10) — Can the return of Cade McNamara save the Hawkeyes’ season? Maybe. But can the “clouds” settle and put Jackson Stratton into the starting spot? It appears possible. Iowa 14, Maryland 10
Beth Malicki (3-0, 26-10) — I’m hosting Thanksgiving and don’t want anyone to bring their own darn food. This isn’t a potluck. This is my chance to show off and stress out. Iowa 20, Maryland 17
Todd Brommelkamp (3-0, 25-11) — Maryland has a single B1G win (by just one point) and gives up almost 30 points a game yet somehow Iowa’s final road trip of the year has become very unnerving. Iowa 28, Maryland 19
No. 22 Iowa State (8-2, 5-2 Big 12) at Utah (4-6, 1-6)
6:30 p.m. Saturday (Fox)
Line: Iowa State -7.5
Hlas — Once I was in a bar in the old Denver airport waiting to catch a flight to Salt Lake City. Someone dropped a quarter in a jukebox and played a Hall and Oates record. At that moment, the most amazing thing happened to all of us there. (Continued on Page 13C). Utah 21, Iowa State 20
Steppe — Utah has more national parks than college football wins this year. Iowa State 23, Utah 20
Johnson — “Is it possible the two Utes …” “The two what?” “What?” “Did you say two Utes?” “Yeah, two Utes.” “What is a Ute?” “Oh, excuse me, your honor. Two youths.” Iowa State 28, Utah 10
Gray — If the Cyclones can stop the run, a path to 9-2 swiftly materializes. If they can’t, this is a four-quarter game. Iowa State 27, Utah 17
Malicki — Why am I wearing a splint on each wrist when I sleep? Self-induced carpal tunnel from robust cleaning. Iowa State 31, Utah 24
Brommelkamp — Utah’s controversial loss in the Holy War two weeks ago was the final straw in a lost season for Kyle Whittingham’s team. Make it seven straight setbacks for the Utes. Iowa State 25, Utah 21
No. 5 Indiana (10-0, 7-0 Big Ten) at No. 2 Ohio State (9-1, 6-1)
11 a.m. Saturday (Fox)
Line: Ohio State -12
Hlas — This is the biggest Indiana football game of our lives, then we have turkey dinner five days later. So delay that move to New Zealand for another week. Ohio State 35, Indiana 28
Steppe — My mother is an Indiana grad. I hope she does her Christmas shopping for me before reading this pick. Ohio State 41, Indiana 31
Johnson — Indiana is a great story, but let’s get real. Hoosiers have played exactly ONE team with a winning record, and that’s Washington, which is a mere 6-5. Ohio State 31, Indiana 14
Gray — Heck, let’s blow it all up. Bluebloods be damned. Er, wait. On second thought … Ohio State 27, Indiana 14
Malicki — I cannot wait for all three of my adult kids to come home so I can be so overwhelmed with delight I can’t sleep so in all the pictures I have “crazy eyes.” Ohio State 34, Indiana 23
Brommelkamp — It’s clear ESPN and the CFP aren’t fans of Curt Cignetti’s upstarts. I am. The Hoosiers will (hopefully) make this a game and prove their many doubters wrong. Ohio State 31, Indiana 24
WEST DES MOINES, Ia. (WCTV) – Two people from Decatur County were arrested in Iowa Wednesday, and face charges related to an alleged robbery, according to a press release from the West Des Moines Police Department.
Daniel Mathes of Bainbridge is charged with robbery in the second degree and theft in the first degree. Lisa Haire of Climax is charged with aiding and abetting robbery in the second degree and aiding and abetting theft in the first degree.
Late Wednesday afternoon, police responded to a call of a robbery at a bank, according to authorities. No one was injured, and police determined Mathes and Haire suspects related to the incident, police say.
They were later pulled over by Iowa State Patrol on I-80, and arrested without incident, according to authorities.
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A notable late-season Big 12 matchup kicks off this weekend as No. 22 Iowa State goes on the road against Utah. Let’s check in with the latest prediction for the game from an expert analytical football model that projects scores and picks winners.
Iowa State sits in a two-way tie for third-place in the Big 12 standings after a two-game losing skid that came to an end last weekend, but the Cyclones need help getting to the league title game.
Utah was the preseason favorite to win the Big 12 Championship Game, but slid to just 1-6 in conference play and is on a six-game losing streak, not having won since late September, against Oklahoma State, the other worst team in the league this season.
What do the analytical models suggest for when the Cyclones and Utes square off in this Big 12 matchup?
For that, let’s turn to the SP+ prediction model to get a preview of how Iowa State and Utah compare in this Week 13 college football game.
As expected, the models are siding with the Cyclones against the Utes, but by a close margin.
SP+ predicts that Iowa State will defeat Utah by a projected score of 24 to 20 and to win the game by an expected margin of 4.1 points in the process.
The model gives the Cyclones a solid 60 percent chance of outright victory against the Utes.
SP+ is a “tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency” that attempts to predict game outcomes by measuring “the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football.”
How good is it this season? So far, the SP+ model is 315-293-8 against the spread with a 51.8 win percentage after going 23-30 (43.4%) last weekend.
Iowa State is a 7.5 point favorite against Utah, according to the updated lines posted to FanDuel Sportsbook for the game.
FanDuel lists the total at 41.5 points for the game (Over -110, Under -110).
And it set the moneyline odds for Iowa State at -280 and for Utah at +225 to win outright.
If you’re using this prediction to bet on the game, you should take …
If you do, you’ll be in the company of a minority of bettors, most of whom expect the Cyclones to dominate the Utes, according to the latest spread consensus picks for the game.
Iowa State is getting 62 percent of bets to win the game and cover the spread in the process.
The other 38 percent of wagers project Utah will either win outright in an upset or keep the game under 8 points in a loss.
Most other analytical football models also favor the Cyclones against the Utes this weekend.
That includes the College Football Power Index, a computer prediction model that uses data points from both teams to simulate games 20,000 times to pick winners.
Iowa State is the favorite in the game, coming out ahead in the majority 63.2 percent of the computer’s most recent simulations of the matchup.
That leaves Utah as the presumptive winner in the other 36.8 percent of sims for the game.
How does that translate to an expected margin of victory in the matchup?
Iowa State is projected to be 4.8 points better than Utah on the same field in both teams’ current composition, according to the model’s latest forecast.
Iowa State is fourth among Big 12 teams with a 9.5 percent chance to qualify for the College Football Playoff, according to the FPI’s metrics.
That model forecasts the Cyclones will win 9.3 games this season.
Colorado (34.3%) leads the Big 12 in the playoff race, according to the index projections, followed by BYU (31.1%) and Arizona State (13.5%).
Utah has two games left to become bowl eligible, but the index doesn’t foresee that happening.
FPI projects the Utes will win 4.7 games and have an 11.9 percent chance to make a bowl game.
When: Sat., Nov. 23
Where: Salt Lake City, Utah
Time: 6:30 p.m. CT | 5:30 p.m. MT
TV: Fox network
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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.
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