Iowa
Morning Bid: Dollar jolted by Iowa surprise
A look at the day ahead in European and global markets from Wayne Cole.
The early action Monday has been in currencies as the dollar took a knock from a new poll in Iowa showing Democratic presidential contender Kamala Harris leading Republican Donald Trump. That was enough to see the dollar down 0.9% on the yen and 0.6% on the euro, while the trade-sensitive Aussie bounced 0.8%.
Analysts tend to assume Trump’s policies on immigration, tariffs and tax cuts would put a lot more upward pressure on the U.S. dollar and yields, than a Harris victory.
Of particular note was the Des Moines Register/Mediacom Iowa Poll which surprised everyone by showing Harris up 3 points on Trump in the state, a major shift from a few weeks ago. This poll has a very good track record and is considered a bellwether for votes across the swing states.
“Since last week, Harris is seeing a boost in the polls, highlighted by the Selzer Poll of Iowa where some are using as a proxy for performance among the Blue Wall battleground states (Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin),” JPMorgan said in a note.
Betting site PredictIT showed Harris at 53 cents to Trump on 51 cents – what investors are willing to wager for a chance to win $1 – compared to 42 cents to 61 cents just a week ago.
The average of opinion polls is still too close to call and it’s quite possible the result of the vote may not be known on Wednesday. In 2020, for instance, Pennsylvania was not called until the Saturday after the election. There could also be court challenges to results which might drag on for weeks.
Markets assume the Federal Reserve will go ahead and cut rates on Thursday no matter the outcome, with futures implying a 98% chance of 25 basis points. They are also pricing an 80% probability of another quarter point in December, though that could easily change depending on who becomes president-elect.
The Bank of England is also expected to cut by a quarter point on Thursday, while the Riksbank is seen easing by 50 basis points. Norges Bank and the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) are seen on hold this week.
The other market mover on Monday was oil, which bounced 1.4% or so after OPEC+ said on Sunday it would delay a planned December output hike by one month. This was the second time it has extended a 2.2 million bpd cut and only goes to show how worried they are about global demand.
Asia in particular has been weak with crude imports in the first 10 months of the year down 200,000 bpd from the same period in 2023, according to LSEG data.
Key developments that could influence markets on Monday:
The Iowa Lottery offers several draw games for those aiming to win big with rewards ranging from $1,000 to millions. The most an Iowan has ever won from playing the lottery was $343 million in 2018 off the Powerball.
Don’t miss out on the winnings. Here’s a look at Sunday, May 31, 2026, winning numbers for each game:
Winning Pick-3 numbers from May 31 drawing
Midday: 9-9-4
Evening: 6-1-0
Check Pick-3 payouts and previous drawings here.
Winning Pick-4 numbers from May 31 drawing
Midday: 5-3-2-7
Evening: 5-3-0-0
Check Pick-4 payouts and previous drawings here.
Winning Millionaire for Life numbers from May 31 drawing
03-11-26-45-56, Bonus: 05
Check Millionaire for Life payouts and previous drawings here.
Feeling lucky? Explore the latest lottery news & results
When are the Iowa Lottery drawings held?
- Powerball: 9:59 p.m. CT on Monday, Wednesday, and Saturday.
- Mega Millions: 10:00 p.m. CT on Tuesday and Friday.
- Lotto America: 9:15 p.m. CT on Monday, Wednesday, and Saturday.
- Lucky for Life: 9:38 p.m. CT daily.
- Pick 3 (Day): 12:20 p.m. CT daily.
- Pick 3 (Evening): 10:00 p.m. CT daily.
- Pick 4 (Day): 12:20 p.m. CT daily.
- Pick 4 (Evening): 10:00 p.m. CT daily.
- Millionaire for Life: 10:15 p.m. CT daily.
This results page was generated automatically using information from TinBu and a template written and reviewed by an Iowa editor. You can send feedback using this form.
More and more, it is looking like playing on the offensive line for the Iowa Hawkeyes is becoming a one-way ticket to the NFL. Offensive line coach George Barnett is among the best in the business, and his 2026 offensive line should continue the trend of strong play for the Hawkeyes.
This past NFL Draft saw the Hawkeyes send Logan Jones, Gennings Dunker, and Beau Stephens to the next level as the latest successes. They come on the heels of Tyler Linderbaum and Tristan Wirfs, two of the best offensive linemen in the NFL.
Iowa is now looking to continue the offensive line prowess as it hosts a highly touted recruit, as they prepare for more future departures to the NFL. Two starters on the offensive line this season, Kade Pieper and Trevor Lauck, have each generated NFL buzz, and if history tells us anything, NFL teams like Iowa offensive linemen.
Iowa Hawkeyes Hosting Four-Star Caleb Johnson
While it may be summer for the current roster with training camp approaching, the recruiting trail doesn’t sleep for the coaching staff. Some of the latest news for Iowa’s class of 2027 is the upcoming visit that Caleb Johnson, a four-star offensive lineman, will take to Iowa City.
Johnson, a product of Noblesville High School in Noblesville, Indiana, is coming off a string of visits to high-profile schools such as Indiana and Michigan State, with a visit to the Hawkeyes on deck.
Iowa may have a slight inside track on Johnson, as it was on Johnson’s recruiting trail earlier than some in the process, offering him back in January of 2026.
Caleb Johnson Bio
High School: Noblesville
Hometown: Noblesville, Indiana
Class: 2027
Height: 6-foot-5
Weight: 260
Recruiting Rankings: No. 2 recruit in Indiana, No. 22 offensive tackle, No. 248 recruit overall
Other Offers: Indiana, Michigan State, Missouri, Cincinnati, Auburn, Colorado, Illinois, Kentucky, Minnesota, UNC, Oklahoma State, Purdue, UCLA, and others
Analysis: At just 260 pounds, Iowa would be able to mold Johnson in the weight room and developmental program, which is one of the best in the country. In his tape from high school, Johnson is seen playing snaps at center, guard, and tackle, which offers versatility from the jump.
Iowa Football 2027 Recruiting Class
The Iowa Hawkeyes currently sit with the No. 29 overall 2027 recruiting class as things stand right now. The Hawkeyes have landed 10 commits for the 2027 class, two of them being offensive linemen.
Reilly Newman from West Chester Ohio, a three-star recruit, and Nate Brenneman from Rock Valley, Iowa, another three-star recruit have given their commitments to the Hawkeyes.
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