Iowa vs Minnesota: What We’re Watching For

WHO: Minnesota Golden Gophers (7-3, 4-3 Large Ten)
WHEN: 3:00 PM CT (Saturday, November 19)
WHERE: Huntington Financial institution Stadium (Minneapolis, MN)
TV: FOX
ANNOUNCERS: Tim Brando and Spencer Tillman
RADIO: Hawkeye Radio Community (TuneIn, or native listings) | SiriusXM Ch. 382 (app 972
STREAM: FoxSports.com
MOBILE: Fox Sports activities app 
TWITTER: @IowaFBLive | @IowaAwesome | @IowaOnBTN
WEATHER: temps round 15 (-4 wind chill), 15 mph winds
LINE: Minnesota -2.5 (Whole: 32.5)

NOTE: Remember to comply with all of the motion throughout the recreation and chat together with your fellow Iowa followers within the Go Iowa Superior discord! (Extra information right here.)

There will probably be chilly. A lot chilly. 

Iowa and Wisconsin rose to dominance within the Large Ten West by copying one another’s blueprint for achievement. On condition that, it is hardly a shock that Iowa and Wisconsin’s different key rival — Minnesota — has engineered its personal turnaround and return to Large Ten relevance by doing just about the identical factor. Beneath PJ Fleck, the Gophers have been constructed round burly, bruising offensive traces, potent working video games, and (more and more) stingy, hard-hitting defenses. Sounds lots like groups that we’re conversant in, no? 

By way of statistics, Iowa and Minnesota seem very evenly matched on the defensive aspect of the ball. Minnesota ranks 4th in scoring protection (13.1 ppg), Iowa ranks fifth (13.9 ppg). Iowa ranks third in whole protection (260.7 ypg), Minnesota ranks eighth (274.0 ypg). Iowa ranks eighth in speeding protection (88.6 ypg), Minnesota ranks 14th (106.8 ypg). Minnesota ranks eighth in passing protection (167.2 ypg), Iowa ranks tenth 172.1 ypg). 

That stated, there are some notable variations between the Iowa and Minnesota variations whenever you look a bit of nearer. Iowa is averaging an NCAA-best 3.81 yards per play, which is downright miserly. Minnesota is averaging 4.83 yards per play, which ranks fifteenth nationally. Minnesota’s protection has additionally seen virtually 120 fewer performs than Iowa’s protection because of the Gopher offense posting an common time of possession of just about 36 minutes per recreation, 2nd finest nationally (Iowa’s offense averages virtually 29 minutes per recreation, which ranks ninetieth nationally). They’ve seen, on common, virtually 12 fewer performs per recreation than Iowa has this yr. That distinction comes by means of within the run protection as properly, the place Iowa is permitting simply 2.55 yards per carry (2nd finest), whereas Minnesota is permitting 3.8 yards per carry (forty sixth). 

The opposition every workforce has confronted additionally components into these stats. Minnesota has allowed 13 factors or fewer in seven of 10 video games this season, however additionally they gave up 20 factors to Purdue, 26 to Illinois, and 45 to Penn State. Iowa has allowed 13 factors or fewer in eight of 10 video games this season, and so they’ve solely bled factors towards Michigan (27) and Ohio State (54), who rank fifth and 2nd, respectively, in scoring offense this season. 

After all, the principle distinction between Iowa and Minnesota is that the Gophers mix a rock stable protection with a really competent offense, whereas Iowa… doesn’t. Minnesota ranks forty ninth in scoring offense (30.6 ppg) and 57th in whole offense (403.7 ypg). Most of that offensive productiveness comes from the working recreation, which is averaging 221.2 ypg (14th), 4.8 ypc (thirty second), with 31 touchdowns (third). (For the document, Iowa has 15 offensive touchdowns whole this season.) The primary supply of that working recreation excellence is Mo Ibrahim, who has 1261 speeding yards (sixth), 18 TD (1st), and averages 140.1 ypg (4th). Ibrahim is a drive, no query. 

The Gopher passing recreation is roughly as ineffective because the Iowa passing recreation, although. Minnesota averages 182.5 ypg, which ranks 117th. (Iowa averages 152.7 ypg, which ranks 123rd.) Gopher QBs are finishing 61.1% of their passes with 8 TD and eight interceptions. (Iowa QBs are finishing 55.7% of their passes with 5 TD and 6 interceptions.) I needn’t elaborate any additional, do I? It is grim stuff. 

So you could have a matchup of two groups which might be finest at working the ball (or, in Iowa’s case, desires to run the ball at the least; they are not significantly good at something on offense) and that each have patchy, inconsistent (and largely ineffective) passing offenses. Each groups even have stout defenses which might be significantly good at stopping the run. That appears like a set-up for a fairly evenly-matched recreation — and on high of that, you could have the climate situations: bitterly chilly (air temperatures within the low teenagers, however wind chills beneath zero) with gusty wind. That climate might be going to make passing even extra unattainable on this recreation. 

However can both workforce run the ball successfully towards these defenses — particularly if the defenses can load as much as sluggish the run with out a lot worry of the passing assaults making them pay? This feels very very similar to a recreation that is going to be determined by particular groups, turnovers, and simply plain weirdness (unusual bounces, awkward deflections, slips, and so on.). Each groups are +5 in turnover margin on the yr; Iowa has 18 turnovers towards 13 giveaways; Minnesota has 16 turnovers towards 11 giveaways. Each groups have 12 interceptions on the season. Iowa has had barely worse fumble luck (7 misplaced fumbles versus 3 for Minnesota), whereas the Gophers have thrown barely extra interceptions (8 versus 6). 

So far as particular groups go, Iowa has an edge in punting (45.5 yards per punt, sixth nationally vs 39.8 yards per punt, 107th nationally) and punt returns (9.8 yards per return, thirty ninth nationally vs 6.8 yards per return, seventy fifth nationally). Minnesota has a slight edge in area objectives (11/12 vs 14/18), though Drew Stevens is 13/15 since taking up the placekicker job. 

PREDICTION 

Minnesota is at residence, they do have probably the most potent offensive weapon (Mo Ibrahim), and they will finish their shedding streak to Iowa one in all these years… but it surely would not really feel like that is going to be that yr. A bizarre, low-scoring, defense-first recreation? That is Iowa’s bread-and-butter, child. Iowa lives within the bizarre and embraces low-scoring video games. The Iowa protection can also be one of the best unit on this recreation. I feel the protection will have the ability to decelerate Ibrahim and drive just a few turnovers that both result in factors instantly or arrange the Iowa offense with some favorable area place — and that would be the distinction in a gathering which will look extra like a demolition derby than a soccer recreation.

IOWA 17, MINNESOTA 13