Iowa

Iowa voters shifted left in 2025. Is a blue wave coming in 2026?

Published

2 months ago

January 12, 2026

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Iowa voters shifted left in 2025. Is a blue wave coming in 2026?

In five of six legislative special elections last year, Democrats overperformed by more than 20 percentage points compared with the 2024 presidential election.

Democrats won four of six special elections in Iowa in 2025, and improved their performance over the 2024 presidential race in all six.
Turnout in the special elections was lower than in typical general elections.
Iowa Republicans, meanwhile, continued to expand their lead in active voter registration totals in 2025.

Iowa Democrats ended 2025 on a high note, winning a Dec. 30 special election in Des Moines’ western suburbs by a wider margin than during the presidential election.

That capped off a year in which Democrats won four of the six legislative special elections and ended Republicans’ supermajority in the Iowa Senate.

In five of those six special elections, Democrats overperformed by more than 20 percentage points compared with 2024.

They’ll look to build off the momentum going into the pivotal 2026 midterms that will include open races for governor and U.S. senator as well as regular Iowa congressional and Legislature elections.

Whether 2025’s Democratic Party victories are bellwethers or blips will play out this year.

Democrats saw Iowa special elections consistently tilt left

Though Republicans won in two special elections in 2025s, their margins of victory were significantly smaller than 2024.

Republican Wendy Larson won December’s special election for the vacant seat in House District 7 by 40 points. That’s a wide margin, but wide margins are expected for Republicans in that part of the state: The party holds strong advantages in voter registration totals in Calhoun, Pocahontas, Sac and Webster counties, where the district is located.

And even that 40-point margin represented a shift toward the Democrats.

In the 2024 presidential election, Republican Donald Trump defeated Democrat Kamala Harris by 50 points in House District 7. Democrats didn’t even field a candidate for the district’s legislative seat that year.

The 10-point shift toward Democrats from the 2024 presidential election to the 2025 special election in House District 7 was the smallest of any legislative district that held a special election last year.

Each of the five other districts shifted toward Democrats by more than twice as much.

Moreover, those special elections were spread across the state.

Democrats consistently gathered a greater share of votes from Senate District 1 in the northwest part of the state to House District 100 in the state’s southeast corner, ranging from 10 to 26 percentage points.

The two seats Democrats flipped in special elections — Senate Districts 1 and 35 — each shifted to the left by more than 20 points compared with the 2024 presidential election.

In Senate District 1, Trump outpaced Harris by 11 percentage points in 2024, while Democrat Caitlin Drey won the seat there by more than 10 points in August.

In Senate District 35, Trump’s victory margin in Senate District 35 was more than 21 points. In January 2025, Democrat Mike Zimmer won the district’s Senate seat by 3½ points.

In 2022, Republicans won both those seats by even wider margins than Trump in 2024.

Should Democrats expect momentum to carry over to 2026?

Pushing voters to the left in six isolated special elections is one thing. Parlaying those successes into November’s midterm elections is quite another.

Turnout was key in 2025’s special elections, and it will be again in 2026.

The numbers of votes cast in 2025’s special elections equaled roughly one-quarter to one-third the votes cast in the 2024 presidential election in those districts.

Turnout should be higher in November’s midterms.

Since 2000, the percentage of Iowa’s registered voters who have participated in the midterm elections typically has hovered around 55%. (About 75% of registered Iowans usually vote in presidential elections.)

But what determines an election is less about the number of people who show up and more about who those people are.

An increased share of those who went to the polls in the special elections were Democratic voters — or, perhaps more accurately, a greater number of Republican voters stayed home.

Republicans will be working to get those voters back to the polls this November.

Republicans maintain advantage in Iowa voter registration data

The leftward shift in last year’s special elections has yet to materialize in Iowa’s voter registration numbers.

Over roughly the past 15 years, voter registrations in Iowa have swung heavily toward Republicans.

Democrats, conversely, have lost 200,000 voters in that time, and Republicans have opened up an overall advantage of more than 10 percentage points.

Despite their victories at the ballot box in 2025, Democrats have not chipped into Republicans’ significant lead in voter registrations.

Last year was the first since at least 2000 when the share of active voters who were Republicans was at least 10 percentage points higher than the share who were Democrats throughout the entire year.

Republicans began 2026 with nearly 200,000 more active registered voters than Democrats, among their largest leads this century.

Those two parties do not comprise the entirety of Iowa’s electorate — a large share of Iowa’s active voters are not registered to a party, and a smaller amount are registered to other parties, including Libertarians.

And just because a voter is registered as a Democrat or Republican doesn’t mean they’ll vote for their party’s candidates.

But the large voter deficit indicates Democrats are starting from a less favorable position.

Their special election victories in 2025 proved they can win elections, but they’ll need to make up some ground to replicate that success in 2026.

Tim Webber is a data visualization specialist for the Register. Reach him at twebber@registermedia.com and on Twitter at @HelloTimWebber.

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Iowa

Iowa Lottery Pick 3 Midday, Pick 3 Evening results for March 1, 2026

Published

10 hours ago

March 2, 2026

Press Room

The Iowa Lottery offers several draw games for those aiming to win big with rewards ranging from $1,000 to millions. The most an Iowan has ever won from playing the lottery was $343 million in 2018 off the Powerball.

Don’t miss out on the winnings. Here’s a look at Sunday, March 1, 2026, winning numbers for each game:

Winning Pick-3 numbers from March 1 drawing

Midday: 6-9-4

Evening: 4-2-5

Check Pick-3 payouts and previous drawings here.

Winning Pick-4 numbers from March 1 drawing

Midday: 1-7-4-8

Evening: 7-6-9-1

Check Pick-4 payouts and previous drawings here.

Winning Millionaire for Life numbers from March 1 drawing

10-11-12-35-56, Bonus: 04

Check Millionaire for Life payouts and previous drawings here.

Feeling lucky? Explore the latest lottery news & results

When are the Iowa Lottery drawings held?

Powerball: 9:59 p.m. CT on Monday, Wednesday, and Saturday.
Mega Millions: 10:00 p.m. CT on Tuesday and Friday.
Lotto America: 9:15 p.m. CT on Monday, Wednesday, and Saturday.
Lucky for Life: 9:38 p.m. CT daily.
Pick 3 (Day): 12:20 p.m. CT daily.
Pick 3 (Evening): 10:00 p.m. CT daily.
Pick 4 (Day): 12:20 p.m. CT daily.
Pick 4 (Evening): 10:00 p.m. CT daily.
Millionaire for Life: 10:15 p.m. CT daily.

This results page was generated automatically using information from TinBu and a template written and reviewed by an Iowa editor. You can send feedback using this form.

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Iowa

Nebraska Men’s Basketball’s Week Ahead: Crucial Games at UCLA and Home vs. Iowa

Published

22 hours ago

March 1, 2026

Press Room

Nebraska Men’s Basketball’s Week Ahead: Crucial Games at UCLA and Home vs. Iowa

Nebraska men’s basketball faces a critical week that will determine its Big Ten Conference and NCAA Tournament seeding.

The Huskers play at UCLA on Tuesday night and finish the regular season next Sunday at home vs. Iowa.

The Huskers are currently tied for second place in the Big Ten with Michigan State. Both teams have four conference losses. They are one game in the loss column ahead of Illinois and Purdue, with five losses. Wisconsin has six losses.

The top four teams earn the coveted triple bye for the Big Ten Tournament. Regular-season champion Michigan has one spot locked up.

Here are the remaining schedules of the contenders for the triple bye, with conference record in parentheses:

Nebraska (14-4)
* Tuesday: at UCLA
* Sunday: vs. Iowa

Michigan State (13-4)
* Sunday: at Indiana
* Thursday: vs. Rutgers
* Sunday, March 8: at Michigan

Illinois (13-5)
* Tuesday: vs. Oregon
* Sunday, March 8: at Maryland

Purdue (12-5)
* Sunday: at Ohio State
* Wednesday: at Northwestern
* Saturday: vs. Wisconsin

Wisconsin (12-6)
* Wednesday: vs. Maryland
* Saturday: at Purdue

Maintaining an NCAA seed no worse than 3 should benefit the Huskers, who wouldn’t have to play, theoretically, the No. 1 seed until the Elite Eight game.

It’s a ton to play for in the final week of a historic regular season for Nebraska. But that’s what March is all about.

Nebraska at UCLA

When: Tuesday, 10 p.m. CT
Where: Pauley Pavilion, Los Angeles
Records: Nebraska, 25-4, 14-4 in Big Ten; UCLA, 19-10, 11-7 in Big Ten
TV: FS1

Rankings updated based on games through Saturday.

UCLA rankings

* Associated Press Top 25: Not ranked
* NCAA Net Ratings: 40
* USA Today Coaches Poll: Not ranked
* Kenpom.com: 41
* ESPN Power Index: 34
* Top 25 and 1: Not ranked
* Team Rankings.com: 41

In Joe Lunardi’s latest Bracketology projections for ESPN, UCLA is a 9-seed for the 68-team NCAA Tournament. The next Bracketology will be released Tuesday.

Nebraska rankings

* Associated Press Top 25: 12
* NCAA Net Ratings: 12
* USA Today Coaches Poll: 10
* Kenpom.com: 11
* ESPN Power Index: 15
* Top 25 and 1: 8
* Team Rankings.com: 11

In Joe Lunardi’s latest Bracketology projections for ESPN, Nebraska is a 3-seed for the 68-team NCAA Tournament.

Nebraska-UCLA analysis

The Bruins are coming off a strange week. They crushed visiting rival USC, 81-62, on Tuesday, then lost at Minnesota, 78-73, on Saturday.

UCLA is 16-1 at home, its only loss to Indiana, 98-97, in double overtime on Jan. 31.

The game will be a homecoming for Huskers forward Berke Buyuktuncel, who played at UCLA in 2023-24, his freshman season. Buyuktuncel has started 27 games and averages 6.7 points and 5.6 rebounds per game this season for the Huskers and frequently earns praise from coach Fred Hoiberg.

Nebraska thoroughly dispatched USC on Saturday, 82-67, an impressive performance on the road against a Trojans team desperate for a statement win to help — or save — their NCAA hopes.

Pryce Sandfort scored 32 points — one short of his career high — as the Huskers won their 14th conference game, a school record. Nebraska is 7-2 on the road in conference games.

This should be a great matchup — UCLA a strong team playing at home vs. a Nebraska team playing well and full of confidence. This feels like a one-possession game.

Nebraska guard Sam Hoiberg goes to the basket as Iowa forward Cooper Koch defends during the first meeting in Iowa City. | Jeffrey Becker-Imagn Images

Iowa at Nebraska

When: Sunday, March 8, 4 p.m. CT
Where: Pinnacle Bank Arena
Records: Nebraska, 25-4, 14-4 in Big Ten; Iowa, 20-9, 10-8 in Big Ten
TV: Fox

Rankings updated based on games through Saturday.

Iowa rankings

* Associated Press Top 25: 33
* NCAA Net Ratings: 28
* USA Today Coaches Poll: 30
* Kenpom.com: 24
* ESPN Power Index: 35
* Top 25 and 1: Not ranked
* Team Rankings.com: 31

In Joe Lunardi’s latest Bracketology projections for ESPN, Iowa is an 8-seed for the 68-team NCAA Tournament.

Nebraska rankings

* Associated Press Top 25: 12
* NCAA Net Ratings: 12
* USA Today Coaches Poll: 10
* Kenpom.com: 11
* ESPN Power Index: 15
* Top 25 and 1: 8
* Team Rankings.com: 11

In Joe Lunardi’s latest Bracketology projections for ESPN, Nebraska is a 3-seed for the 68-team NCAA Tournament.

Nebraska forward Braden Frager defends a fast-break layup attempt by Iowa guard Bennett Stirtz in the teams’ first meeting on Feb. 17. | Julia Hansen/Iowa City Press-Citizen / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Nebraska-Iowa analysis

The Hawkeyes are coming off a puzzling, 71-69 loss at Penn State on Saturday. Iowa led 67-62 with 3:49 to play, and then scored only one more basket. Iowa plays host to Michigan on Thursday.

Nebraska will get a final curtain call at Pinnacle Bank Arena, where the Huskers are 15-2.

Nebraska should have revenge on its mind after losing at Iowa, 57-52, on Feb. 17, in Sandfort’s return to Iowa City, where he played for two seasons.

Whatever Nebraska nerves were a factor at Iowa shouldn’t be in play at Pinnacle Bank Arena. Nebraska shot only 21 percent from distance in Iowa City. Sandfort scored 13 points, his lowest total since Jan. 10, when he scored 12 at Indiana.

Iowa’s Bennett Stirtz scored 25 points. That won’t happen in this game. Neither will Nebraska’s ice-cold shooting from distance, especially if the game could determine the triple bye for the Huskers.

More From Nebraska On SI

Stay up to date on all things Huskers by bookmarking Nebraska Cornhuskers On SI, subscribing to HuskerMax on YouTube, and visiting HuskerMax.com daily.

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Iowa

Iowa Boys High School State Basketball Tournament Sets Two Classes

Published

1 day ago

March 1, 2026

Press Room

Iowa Boys High School State Basketball Tournament Sets Two Classes

The Class 1A and Class 2A Iowa high school boys basketball state tournament brackets are now official following substate action.

The Iowa High School Athletic Association Boys State Tournament begins Monday, March 9 from the Casey’s Center in Des Moines, Iowa.

St. Edmond, the top-seed in 1A, gets Woodbine in a rematch of a quarterfinal from a year ago. Woodbine ended the run of defending state champion Madrid in a substate final on the same court that St. Edmond qualified on when they defeated Riverside.

Burlington Notre Dame plays Bellevue, MMCRU meets Boyden-Hull and Bishop Garrigan battles Bellevue Marquette Catholic in the other elite eight games.

The other substate finals saw Burlington Notre Dame defeat Calamus-Wheatland, MMCRU eliminated North Union, Bishop Garrigan downed South Winneshiek, Bellevue bested East Marshall and Bellevue Marquette Catholic topped Montezuma.

In 2A, Kuemper Catholic is the No. 1 seed and will face Union Community in the opening game on Wednesday, March 11. The other quarterfinals see Treynor vs. Grundy Center, Unity Christian vs. defending state champion Western Christian and Iowa City Regina vs. Aplington-Parkersburg.

Kuemper Catholic survived vs. Roland-Story, Union knocked off Pella Christian in a nail-biter, Treynor bested Underwood, Grundy Center downed Beckman Catholic, Unity Christian handled Southeast Valley, Western Christian ran past Tri-Center, Iowa City Regina downed Northeast and Aplington-Parkersburg defeated Cascade.

Here are the Iowa High School Athletic Association Boys State Basketball Tournament pairings for Class 1A and Class 2A.

Quarterfinals

Tuesday, March 10

Semifinals

Thursday, March 12

Championship

Friday, March 13

Wednesday, March 11

Semifinals

Thursday, March 12

Championship

Friday, March 13