Iowa
Iowa voters shifted left in 2025. Is a blue wave coming in 2026?
In five of six legislative special elections last year, Democrats overperformed by more than 20 percentage points compared with the 2024 presidential election.
Here are the top 2026 midterm races to follow in Iowa
Des Moines Register Chief Politics Reporter Brianne Pfannenstiel breaks down Iowa’s top races ahead of the 2026 midterms.
Iowa Democrats ended 2025 on a high note, winning a Dec. 30 special election in Des Moines’ western suburbs by a wider margin than during the presidential election.
That capped off a year in which Democrats won four of the six legislative special elections and ended Republicans’ supermajority in the Iowa Senate.
In five of those six special elections, Democrats overperformed by more than 20 percentage points compared with 2024.
They’ll look to build off the momentum going into the pivotal 2026 midterms that will include open races for governor and U.S. senator as well as regular Iowa congressional and Legislature elections.
Whether 2025’s Democratic Party victories are bellwethers or blips will play out this year.
Democrats saw Iowa special elections consistently tilt left
Though Republicans won in two special elections in 2025s, their margins of victory were significantly smaller than 2024.
Republican Wendy Larson won December’s special election for the vacant seat in House District 7 by 40 points. That’s a wide margin, but wide margins are expected for Republicans in that part of the state: The party holds strong advantages in voter registration totals in Calhoun, Pocahontas, Sac and Webster counties, where the district is located.
And even that 40-point margin represented a shift toward the Democrats.
In the 2024 presidential election, Republican Donald Trump defeated Democrat Kamala Harris by 50 points in House District 7. Democrats didn’t even field a candidate for the district’s legislative seat that year.
The 10-point shift toward Democrats from the 2024 presidential election to the 2025 special election in House District 7 was the smallest of any legislative district that held a special election last year.
Each of the five other districts shifted toward Democrats by more than twice as much.
Moreover, those special elections were spread across the state.
Democrats consistently gathered a greater share of votes from Senate District 1 in the northwest part of the state to House District 100 in the state’s southeast corner, ranging from 10 to 26 percentage points.
The two seats Democrats flipped in special elections — Senate Districts 1 and 35 — each shifted to the left by more than 20 points compared with the 2024 presidential election.
In Senate District 1, Trump outpaced Harris by 11 percentage points in 2024, while Democrat Caitlin Drey won the seat there by more than 10 points in August.
In Senate District 35, Trump’s victory margin in Senate District 35 was more than 21 points. In January 2025, Democrat Mike Zimmer won the district’s Senate seat by 3½ points.
In 2022, Republicans won both those seats by even wider margins than Trump in 2024.
Should Democrats expect momentum to carry over to 2026?
Pushing voters to the left in six isolated special elections is one thing. Parlaying those successes into November’s midterm elections is quite another.
Turnout was key in 2025’s special elections, and it will be again in 2026.
The numbers of votes cast in 2025’s special elections equaled roughly one-quarter to one-third the votes cast in the 2024 presidential election in those districts.
Turnout should be higher in November’s midterms.
Since 2000, the percentage of Iowa’s registered voters who have participated in the midterm elections typically has hovered around 55%. (About 75% of registered Iowans usually vote in presidential elections.)
But what determines an election is less about the number of people who show up and more about who those people are.
An increased share of those who went to the polls in the special elections were Democratic voters — or, perhaps more accurately, a greater number of Republican voters stayed home.
Republicans will be working to get those voters back to the polls this November.
Republicans maintain advantage in Iowa voter registration data
The leftward shift in last year’s special elections has yet to materialize in Iowa’s voter registration numbers.
Over roughly the past 15 years, voter registrations in Iowa have swung heavily toward Republicans.
Democrats, conversely, have lost 200,000 voters in that time, and Republicans have opened up an overall advantage of more than 10 percentage points.
Despite their victories at the ballot box in 2025, Democrats have not chipped into Republicans’ significant lead in voter registrations.
Last year was the first since at least 2000 when the share of active voters who were Republicans was at least 10 percentage points higher than the share who were Democrats throughout the entire year.
Republicans began 2026 with nearly 200,000 more active registered voters than Democrats, among their largest leads this century.
Those two parties do not comprise the entirety of Iowa’s electorate — a large share of Iowa’s active voters are not registered to a party, and a smaller amount are registered to other parties, including Libertarians.
And just because a voter is registered as a Democrat or Republican doesn’t mean they’ll vote for their party’s candidates.
But the large voter deficit indicates Democrats are starting from a less favorable position.
Their special election victories in 2025 proved they can win elections, but they’ll need to make up some ground to replicate that success in 2026.
Tim Webber is a data visualization specialist for the Register. Reach him at twebber@registermedia.com and on Twitter at @HelloTimWebber.
Iowa
Two Iowans sentenced to prison for creating child pornography
Child abuse: What signs to watch for if you suspect it
Child abuse includes physical, sexual, emotional and medical abuse, as well as neglect. Learn about signs, risk factors, how to get help.
Wochit, Wochit
Two Iowans will spend decades in federal prison after pleading guilty to separate child exploitation offenses.
Martin Menjivar, 59, of Iowa City, was sentenced Thursday, March 26, to 42 years in prison after pleading guilty to sexual exploitation of a child and child pornography possession. It comes days after Pry’Shayn Mosley, 21, of Fort Dodge was sentenced to 25 years for exploitation and receipt of child pornography.
Iowa City man picked up children from school, abused them
Menjivar, a citizen of Honduras, was charged in May 2025. In court filings, prosecutors say Menjivar was entrusted to pick up children, some as young as 5, from their elementary school and bring them to his wife’s home for after-school babysitting. In at least two cases, Mejivar used that access to get children alone and touch them inappropriately, recording the interaction on video.
Investigators reportedly found dozens of illicit images and videos on Menjivar’s electronic devices. Menjivar also previously worked as a school photographer in Honduras, and investigators found he had hundreds of photos from his former employment that focused on children’s clothed genitals.
“Defendant’s horrific actions of creating and collecting child pornography show violence against young, vulnerable children and a severe danger to the community,” prosecutors wrote in presentence filings.
Menjivar also has been charged in Johnson County with second-degree sexual abuse against two different children, apparently in relation to the same conduct. That case remains pending, with a plea hearing scheduled in May.
Fort Dodge man gets 25 years for enticing children
Mosley, who was sentenced March 23, was charged in January 2025. Prosecutors alleged that in 2022, he enticed two minors to engage in sexually explicit conduct, photographed or recorded it, and distributed the resulting pornography to others, including additional children.
In addition, during a warrant search that located drugs, guns and electronic devices containing child pornography, Mosley tried to get a juvenile at the scene to conceal drugs from the investigators.
Mosley pleaded guilty to sexual exploitation and receiving child pornography. Additional drug, pornography and exploitation charges were dismissed as part of a plea deal.
Menjivar was prosecuted by the U.S. Attorney’s Office for the Southern District of Iowa, while Mosley’s case was handled by the U.S. Attorney’s Office for the Northern District of Iowa. Attorneys for Menjivar and Mosley did not immediately return messages Thursday seeking comment.
William Morris covers courts for the Des Moines Register. He can be contacted at wrmorris2@registermedia.com or 715-573-8166.
Iowa
Jada Williams among eight Iowa State players headed to transfer portal
Audi Crooks, Jada Williams reflect on loss to Syracuse
Iowa State’s Audi Crooks and Jada Williams discuss what went wrong in the second half for the Cyclones’ to fall to Syracuse.
Iowa State’s first-round exit from the 2026 Women’s NCAA Tournament has triggered a mass exodus, with a reported eight players leaving the team to enter the transfer portal.
Junior forward Addy Brown announced her decision to “move on” from Iowa State and enter the transfer portal in a social media post on Tuesday, March 24.
“This decision comes after a lot of thought about my future and goals,” Brown wrote in a post shared to social media. “While it’s never easy to move on, I believe this is the right step for me and I’m excited for what’s ahead as I continue to grow and chase my dreams.”
By Thursday, March. 26, several other players followed suit. Junior guard Jada Williams confirmed she’ll be “pursuing my dreams elsewhere” for her senior season. She added in a social media post, “Iowa State will always have a place in my heart and I’ll never forget the Iowa State way.”
Williams transferred to Iowa State for the 2025-26 season after playing for Arizona for the first two years of her career. William averaged career-highs in points (15.3), assists (7.7) and field goal percentage (41.7) in her lone season at Iowa State.
Iowa State freshman guard Reese Beaty, freshman guard Freya Jensen, sophomore guard Reagan Wilson, sophomore guard Aili Tanke, junior forward Alisa Williams and junior center Lilly Taulelei all intend to enter the transfer portal, according to On3’s Talia Goodman.
The transfer portal opens on Monday, April 6, following the NCAA Tournament championship game on Sunday, April 5.
Could Iowa State junior center Audi Crooks be next? Crooks declined to answer whether she would return next season following Iowa State’s 72-63 loss to Syracuse on Saturday, March 21. She instead said, “We’re all still processing everything and just being there for each other right now is the priority. That’s the main thing, making sure everybody is mentally OK through this tough time.”
Crooks had 37 points (17-of-25 FG) and five rebounds in the losing effort against Syracuse.
Reach USA TODAY National Women’s Sports Reporter Cydney Henderson at chenderson@usatoday.com and follow her on X at@CydHenderson.
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Iowa
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