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ESPN Matchup Predictor Forecasts Kansas vs Iowa State Basketball Matchup

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ESPN Matchup Predictor Forecasts Kansas vs Iowa State Basketball Matchup


No. 9 Kansas and No. 5 Iowa State are set to tip off this weekend in another Big 12 thriller. Two of the best teams in the conference will meet for the second time this season after the Jayhawks dominated the first matchup in an 84-63 blowout.

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This time around will be much different, as the Cyclones will host the game at Hilton Coliseum, one of the best environments in the Big 12. KU head coach Bill Self has lost in that building three straight years by a combined 36 points.

Kansas has won its past eight games in a streak that began Jan. 13 against this very team in Allen Fieldhouse. Can the Jayhawks extend it to nine against the squad that started it all? ESPN’s computer model doesn’t appear to think so.

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Kansas at Iowa State: ESPN Matchup Predictor Gives Prediction

The Matchup Predictor gives KU an extremely slim chance of coming out victorious Saturday afternoon. It gives Iowa State nearly a three-in-four probability of winning.

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Jan 13, 2026; Lawrence, Kansas, USA; Kansas Jayhawks guard Darryn Peterson (22) shoots against Iowa State Cyclones forward Blake Buchanan (23) during the second half at Allen Fieldhouse. Mandatory Credit: Jay Biggerstaff-Imagn Images | Jay Biggerstaff-Imagn Images

ESPN Matchup Predictor Chances at Victory: Iowa State 73.2%, Kansas 26.8%.

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Kansas On SI’s Take

It makes sense that Iowa State is favored, but this number seems slightly exaggerated. The Cyclones opened as 5.5-point favorites, yet the computer model views them as overwhelming favorites.

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As well as TJ Otzelberger’s squad has played this season, it has won just five of its last eight games after starting 16-0. In its most recent outing, Iowa State went into Fort Worth and suffered a disappointing loss to TCU, dropping to 8-3 in conference play.

The Jayhawks, on the other hand, have looked nearly unstoppable in recent weeks. They just defeated No. 1 Arizona — granted, it was at home in the best environment in America, but it was still a feat no other team had accomplished this season, and they did it without their best player in Darryn Peterson.

Kansas has an opportunity to complete a rare season sweep over one of its more deep-rooted conference rivals. It is highly unlikely that the team is run out the gym like ISU was last month, given its recent winning streak.

The star freshman appears to be on track to return this weekend, which would give KU a significant boost in its starting five. If he is available, the Jayhawks likely deserve better odds from ESPN’s computer model than they currently have.

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MORE FROM KANSAS ON SI

3 Things Kansas Basketball Must Accomplish the Rest of the Season

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What Melvin Council Jr. Returning to Kansas Would Mean for Jayhawks



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Zach Lahn projected to win Iowa GOP governor primary, upsetting Trump’s pick in a state Democrats hope to flip

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Zach Lahn projected to win Iowa GOP governor primary, upsetting Trump’s pick in a state Democrats hope to flip


Zach Lahn will win the Republican primary for Iowa governor, CBS News projects, overcoming a Trump-backed congressman and setting up a November contest against Democrat Rob Sand that could be one of this year’s most competitive gubernatorial races.

Lahn — a farmer and businessman who has touted his ties to the “Make America Healthy Again” movement — prevailed over a crowded GOP field on Tuesday. Sand, who serves as state auditor, ran for the Democratic nomination unopposed.

His victory bucks the recent winning streak of Trump-backed candidates and marks an upset over Rep. Randy Feenstra, who didn’t attend any primary debates and was viewed by many observers as a frontrunner. President Trump endorsed Feenstra last week, calling him “MAGA all the way,” and several top Iowa GOP figures backed him. 

Feenstra conceded late Tuesday night, saying in a speech surrounded by his family that the outcome “wasn’t what I wanted.” 

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Describing himself as a sixth-generation Iowan, Lahn owns a family farm and runs the agriculture, real estate and technology investment firm Homeplace Ventures. He previously worked for the conservative group Americans for Prosperity. He’s running on a populist-inflected platform that he branded “Iowa First” and has said he wants to boost local ownership of farmland, stem the flow of younger Iowans out of the state and address Iowa’s high cancer rate.

“I fear every day we are losing the Iowa we love,” Lahn said in his victory speech Tuesday, castigating out-of-state investors that he says “treat Iowa land like it’s a commodity instead of our inheritance.”

Lahn was endorsed last year by MAHA Action, a group founded by allies of Health and Human Services Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr., and he picked up support from the late Charlie Kirk’s Turning Point Action last week. He was also endorsed by former Rep. Steve King, who was known for incendiary comments about race before Feenstra ousted him in a 2020 primary.

Three other candidates also ran: former Iowa Department of Administrative Services Director Adam Steen, state Rep. Eddie Andrews and former state Rep. Brad Sherman.

Lahn will now face Sand, a two-term state auditor who defeated a GOP incumbent in 2018 after working in the state attorney general’s office.

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Sand has focused his campaign on government accountability and faulted Republicans for the state’s economic issues, while pitching universal pre-K and criticizing a school voucher program introduced by GOP officials. He has also sought to cultivate a moderate image on social issues, as Republicans try to cast him as a liberal in centrist’s clothing.

In a campaign video late Tuesday, Sand said Republican voters are “welcome in this campaign,” adding that the state’s political system is “broken” and “all you would get with Zach Lahn it is more of the same.”

Once considered a swing state, Iowa has trended sharply red in recent years as Democrats increasingly struggle on rural Midwestern terrain. Mr. Trump won the state three times in a row, including by a 13-point margin in 2024, and GOP Gov. Kim Reynolds won reelection by 18 points four years ago. Iowa hasn’t elected a Democratic governor in two decades, and Sand is the only statewide elected Democrat, after he won reelection by fewer than 3,000 votes in 2022.

But Democrats are hopeful that a challenging political environment for Republicans, both nationally and in Iowa, could make them more competitive in the midwestern state. The Cook Political Report has rated the Iowa gubernatorial race a tossup, one of five states with that distinction this year, and the University of Virginia’s Center for Politics says the race leans red.

Reynolds — who has led the state since 2017 — has one of the lowest approval ratings of any governor nationwide. Iowa farmers also struggled last year after the trade war with China caused Beijing to cut American soybean imports, pushing down prices of one of Iowa’s most widely grown crops, and the war with Iran has caused a run-up in fuel and fertilizer prices.

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Reynolds declined to run for reelection this year, setting up Iowa’s first gubernatorial election without an incumbent in the race since 2006.

Lahn lent his campaign $2 million last year, but is heading into the general election at a fundraising disadvantage. His campaign had just over $700,000 on hand as of mid-May, compared to nearly $18.3 million for the Sand campaign. Sand’s wife runs a sizable food and health products company founded by her family called the Lauridsen Group, and the Democrat’s campaign coffers have been bolstered by millions in contributions from his in-laws.

Sand raised about $9.7 million between the start of the year and mid-May, just over $3 million of which came from members of his wife’s family. Lahn raised just under $1 million.

Beyond the governor’s race, Iowa also has an open Senate contest after Ernst declined to seek reelection, drawing interest from Democrats, though Republicans likely have a sizable edge. Democrats are also heavily targeting two of Iowa’s four House seats, including the 1st District, where incumbent GOP Rep. Mariannette Miller-Meeks won by fewer than 1,000 votes in 2024.

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Elections live updates: Key races to watch in California, Iowa, Montana and New Jersey primaries

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Elections live updates: Key races to watch in California, Iowa, Montana and New Jersey primaries


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In California, competition is fierce for the gubernatorial and Los Angeles mayoral nominations. Iowa, Montana and New Jersey have open U.S. Senate seats. In New Jersey, a silent congressman could lose his House seat.

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Iowa joins wave of states forcing porn sites to verify users’ ages

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Iowa joins wave of states forcing porn sites to verify users’ ages



Beginning July 1, Iowans must verify they are adults to access porn websites.

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Iowa will require porn websites to verify users are at least 18 under a new law signed by Gov. Kim Reynolds. 

The Hawkeye State joins at least 25 other states, including Kansas and Nebraska, in requiring age verification for adult content in an effort to prevent minors from accessing it. 

House File 864 is modeled after a Texas age verification law the U.S. Supreme Court upheld in a 6-3 decision in June. The measure will apply to websites or apps if at least one-third of their content is pornographic. 

Beginning July 1, the law will require the websites to verify a user’s age using government-issued identification, financial documents or other documents that are “reliable proxies for age.” Age verification may also be performed by third parties or through any “commercially reasonable and reliable method.” 

The law states websites and third parties “shall not retain, sell, lease or otherwise disseminate any identifying information of an individual subject to reasonable age verification unless retention or dissemination of the identifying information is required by law or a court order.” 

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It also requires third parties and websites to use “reasonable methods given the person’s scope of business to secure all data collected and transmitted” during the age verification process.  

Under the new law, Iowa’s attorney general can sue companies in violation of the law. Violators could face fines up to $1,000 for each time an individual accesses a site in violation of the law. Civil penalties for providers are capped at $10,000 per day.

Iowa Senate lawmakers unanimously approved the measure while the House advanced it 82-2.

Rapid Response Politics Reporter Maya Marchel Hoff can be reached at mmarchelHoff@usatodayco.com. You can find her on X (formerly Twitter) at @mmarchelhoff.

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