Why Indianapolis Colts RB Jonathan Taylor’s touches and production are likely to fall this season

WESTFIELD, Ind. — For followers, questions in regards to the workload of 2021 NFL dashing chief Jonathan Taylor this season are tied principally to fantasy implications and our general obsession with statistics.

However for Indianapolis Colts coach Frank Reich, the questions on his star working again are extra existential. In reality, they’re on the core of a dialog about what sort of crew the Colts hope to be in 2022.

“The purpose is to not lead the league in dashing,” Reich mentioned. “The purpose is to not make [Taylor] the MVP of the league. The purpose is to win championships. He is aware of that, and everyone knows that. That’s what we’re all about.”

Then, Reich obtained much more particular.

“You don’t see groups which have this ground-and-pound run recreation win championships,” he mentioned. “You simply don’t. I’m positive it’s occurred with one or two groups, however our greatest system is to be balanced. I’m not saying he received’t lead the league in touches, since you by no means understand how issues are going to play out.

“However I virtually don’t need him to.”

If that doesn’t alter your expectations for what Taylor’s 2022 season would possibly appear to be, nothing will.

These aren’t simply arbitrary statements both. It is a matter the Colts have been mulling for fairly a while, even whereas Taylor was on his method to main the NFL with 1,811 dashing yards final season. And their conclusions make it clear that Taylor’s utilization may drop — presumably sharply — this season.

A shift in philosophy

For Reich and the Colts, their more and more run-heavy method down the stretch of the 2021 season was unplanned and — as Reich sees it — unsustainable.

Take, for instance, the Colts’ offensive method in Weeks 11-16. They’d a mixed 186 rushes in these contests however 126 mixed cross makes an attempt from final season’s beginning quarterback Carson Wentz.

That’s about as ground-and-pound because it will get. It’s the form of offensive imbalance hardly ever seen in immediately’s pass-heavy NFL, and it’s one you shouldn’t essentially count on to see from Indianapolis in 2022. Total, the Colts handed on 52.6% of offensive performs final season, the fifth-lowest mark within the league and the bottom in Reich’s 4 seasons because the Colts’ coach.

The presence of beginning quarterback Matt Ryan additionally looms giant for 2022, because the Colts count on him to take larger command of the offense than Wentz did, and the playcalling is prone to mirror this.

Holding Taylor contemporary for a protracted profession

One other issue considerably impacting Taylor’s anticipated workload is the Colts’ need to protect him long-term. The crew is conscious of the toll heavy carries can tackle their All-Professional again, and it’ll proceed with this concern in thoughts.

“That’s on us as coaches,” offensive coordinator Marcus Brady mentioned. “We’ve obtained to form of deal with that. Despite the fact that he’s having success in that recreation and we’re feeding him, we’ve to be accountable sufficient to grasp that there’s a larger image past that one recreation — that we’ve obtained a full season, we’ve obtained a full profession for him. So, we’ve obtained to be disciplined.”

Through the aforementioned five-game stretch final season, Taylor averaged 27.2 carries. Extrapolated over a 17-game season, which might quantity to 462 carries — excess of the NFL single-season document of 416. Taylor completed with a league-high 332 carries.

The historical past of how working backs reply to heavy workloads is blended, however there are some current examples that recommend the Colts might have some extent. Of the 4 working backs (Dalvin Cook dinner, Ezekiel Elliott, Derrick Henry, Le’Veon Bell) who surpassed 300 carries in a single season from 2016 to 2020, three skilled a statistical decline the next season.

As proven within the chart, Elliott (thrice) and Cook dinner noticed a dip in yards per carry after their 300-carry seasons. Henry has had a pair of 300-carry campaigns. He really improved after his first one in 2019, however his YPC dipped after his second one (2020) earlier than a foot damage ended his 2021 season after eight video games. Bell sat out the 2018 season after a contract dispute with the Pittsburgh Steelers following his 321 carries in 2017.

Devoted to getting Nyheim Hines extra concerned

The ultimate variable has nothing to do with Taylor in any respect. As a substitute, the presence of all-purpose again Nyheim Hines may even impression how usually the Colts use Taylor.

Hines matched a profession low with 96 touches final season after averaging 132 in his first three seasons. Now, the Colts are adamantly attempting to extend that quantity due to his distinctive nature and explosiveness. Regardless of his lowered alternatives in 2021, Hines was extra environment friendly, establishing profession highs in dashing yards per try (4.9) and yards per catch (7.8).

“Once we speak about how we unfold the ball round, Nyheim is in that blend,” Reich mentioned. “We’re not going to overdo it, however we’re positively going into video games asking, ‘How can we get him his touches?’ Due to the place he performs and since he performs behind [Taylor], it’s important to be intentional about it. In any other case, the entire recreation can go by, and also you’re like, ‘What occurred? Why didn’t we get Nyheim the ball?’”

The Colts are bringing some creativity to this course of too. They count on to extend the variety of events when Taylor and Hines are in the identical personnel group, deploying them on the identical time and making defenses guess the place the ball goes.

Additionally they count on to make use of Hines as a pass-catcher, maybe greater than ever. Hines has averaged 4.2 targets and three.2 receptions per recreation in his four-year profession and has a pair of 63-catch seasons. He has carried out most of his receiving duties out of the backfield in prior seasons, however Hines may play extra of a standard slot-receiver position at occasions this season. Hines has added extra broad receiver drills to his plate throughout coaching camp and mentioned he and Ryan have already developed some synergy.

“With how briskly I’m, quarterbacks have [often] thrown the ball behind me or underthrown me,” mentioned Hines, a former All-American sprinter at North Carolina State. “Matt hasn’t accomplished that. First time out, proper on the cash, and I’m like, ‘Sheesh, that doesn’t occur usually.’”

Should you’re questioning how Taylor feels about all this, that’s maybe the very best half: He doesn’t appear to thoughts in any respect.

“If I’m going right into a recreation, and I have to go block that [middle] linebacker 15 occasions,” he mentioned, “they usually say, ‘We’ll win the sport for those who try this,’ then I’m all in. … You possibly can have all of the numbers on this planet and nonetheless not win a championship.”

Good factor, as a result of Taylor’s touches appear headed for a decline. The Colts, nonetheless, hope it results in their collective ascent.