The Indianapolis Colts may or may not be in a do-or-die situation in Week 17 when they host the Jacksonville Jaguars on Sunday. Their playoff picture could be settled on Saturday afternoon when the Houston Texans travel to face the Los Angeles Chargers. The Colts are a 5.5-point home underdog against the Jaguars while the Texans are a 1.5-point road underdog against the Chargers.

The Colts eliminated themselves from AFC South contention in Week 16 when they lost to the 49ers on Monday Night Football. That race is down to the Jaguars and Texans.

Updated AFC playoff picture

The Colts only chance at a playoff berth requires them winning their final two games and the Texans losing their final two games. This would move the Colts into seventh place and they would hold the final wild card spot. In Week 17, the Texans face the Chargers on Saturday at 4:30 p.m. ET. If the Texans win or tie against the Chargers, the Colts are eliminated. Additionally, if the Colts lose or tie against the Jaguars on Sunday, Indianapolis is eliminated.

AFC teams eliminated from the playoffs

• The Jacksonville Jaguars will face the Indianapolis Colts in a Week 17 game that could decide the AFC South winner.
• Jacksonville can clinch the division with a win if the Houston Texans lose their game on Saturday.
• The Jaguars defeated the Colts 36-19 in their last meeting just a few weeks ago in Week 14.

The Jacksonville Jaguars (11-4) are set to take on the Indianapolis Colts (8-7) on the road in Week 17, which could end with clarity on who will win the AFC South.

If the Houston Texans fall to the Los Angeles Chargers on Saturday afternoon, the Jaguars could clinch the AFC South by defeating Indianapolis on Sunday. If Houston doesn’t lose, the Jaguars will need to beat the Colts and the Tennessee Titans in Week 18 to ensure they win the division. It’s that simple.

The Jaguars at Colts game is set to kick off at 1 p.m. Sunday.

Buy Jacksonville Jaguars tickets

It will be broadcast on FOX.

Jacksonville is very familiar with the Colts, but even moreso with this year’s Colts in particular. They played them just a few weeks ago in Week 14, the game that kicked off Indianapolis’ bold move in signing formerly retired quarterback Phillip Rivers, who had last played in the 2020 season before being signed by Indy.

Times-Union staff predictions: Who will win, Jaguars or Colts?

Colts starting QB Daniel Jones sustained a ruptured Achilles injury against Jacksonville, leading to the Rivers signing. Rivers has started the Colts’ last two games and is likely to do so again Sunday.

In the team’s last meeting, the Jaguars defeated the Colts at home 36-19, a game that helped the Jaguars get a firm grip on the AFC South lead through the final stretch of the season.

Coen described the upcoming meeting as being like chess, a continuation of their last meeting with added wrinkles.

“How much can we know our opponent and what they did against us in the first game? What worked, what didn’t? And, OK, what’s the next chess move, right?” Coen said about playing a team twice in the matter of a few weeks.

“Starting to anticipate either your next chess move or theirs and that’s how much you have to study, understand your own plan first and foremost, and then, OK, what are the next steps that could occur? As players and coaches.”

In the first meeting between the clubs, Jacksonville ran for just 103 yards, an area the team hasn’t been consistent in for about a month. Instead, the Jaguars have relied heavily on quarterback Trevor Lawrence’s arm — and often now legs — to get the job done.

To Jacksonville’s credit, it’s worked. Lawrence has posted more than 1,000 passing yards and 14 total touchdowns with zero turnovers during the team’s last month of the season.

They’ve defeated clubs by an average of 18.8 points per game. The dominance Jacksonville has shown can be contextualized and emphasized like this: Last season, Jacksonville averaged just 18.8 points per game.

Still, Coen wants to improve the team’s ground game, a strength the Jaguars held for the first part of the season.

He explained early in the week that the team’s struggles are a combination of factors, including how much the team worked to improve a lagging passing attack for several weeks, especially during and since the Week 8 BYE.

Teams have given the Jaguars single-high safety looks in response to their success on the ground early in the season.

“Which now you’re saying as a coach, well they got one more than we really want to have to block. Let’s try to throw it,” Coen explained as Jacksonville has become one of the best passing teams in the league over the last month.