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2026 NCAA Tournament Bracket Strategy: Tips & Trends to Win Your Pool
One of the best traditions in sports is back at last. The 68-team 2026 NCAA Tournament bracket is set, and tens of millions will fill out their own brackets in the coming days, chasing bragging rights and the near-impossible perfect bracket across 67 games.
With upsets on tap, Cinderellas emerging, and blue-blood programs chasing another national title, everyone is searching for an edge with their bracket strategy.
There’s no guaranteed formula, but NCAA Tournament history offers clues.
Here are our NCAA Tournament bracket tips and trends that can improve your college basketball bracket predictions and help you win your bracket pool this year.
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2026 NCAA Tournament Bracket Strategy: 8 Tips to Win Your Pool
Many people know the one co-worker with minimal “ball knowledge” who has won the bracket pool by win coin flips for every game. Or the friend who nailed the national semifinal teams by picking based on mascots.
You can put in hours of research on advanced metrics, matchup breakdowns — and somehow, your bracket is busted before the first weekend ends.
If there’s one bad habit we have for brackets, it’s overthinking the wrong things. After hours spent diving into the data, it’s easy to get lost in the sauce.
Let’s narrow this bracket strategy to eight NCAA Tournament tips and trends to focus on when filling out brackets, melding together historical trends with this year’s tournament teams.
Tip #1: Don’t Sweat the Upsets
Upsets are what separate the NCAA Men’s Basketball Tournament from any other tournament, constantly providing results that no one could have expected.
Of course, upsets will happen, but how much do they really impact your bracket pool ranking? Most pools double your points by round for each correct pick. For example, you may earn 10 points for a first-round pick, followed by 20 points for the second round, and up to 320 points for nailing the National Champion.
With that said, maybe people place too much emphasis on the upsets.
Someone may be seen as a genius for predicting a 14-seed to upset a No. 3. But in the Round of 32, that 14-seed loses. In the end, that bracket only has a small advantage — usually 10 points — over the competition.
That’s dust in the wind compared to 80 points for a correct national semifinal pick.
Your time could be best served focusing on the later rounds — the teams that have real tournament longevity. High accuracy in hitting your final eight teams can easily erase any first- and second-round woes.
Tip #2: Make Your National Champion Pick With Data
Over the last 23 NCAA Men’s Basketball Tournaments, 22 champions entered the bracket ranked in the top 25 of adjusted offensive efficiency and adjusted defensive efficiency on KenPom — an advanced analytic resource for college basketball.
Eight teams currently fit that metric: Duke, Arizona, Michigan, Florida, Houston, Iowa State, Michigan State, and Louisville. To no surprise, PrizePicks Team Picks — a sports prediction market — has the first six teams above listed as the favorites to win the NCAA Tournament, while Michigan State and Louisville are longer shot picks.
Oddly enough, Week 6 of the AP Top 25 Poll also holds some magic, with 21 consecutive and 35 of the last 36 champions ranking in the top 12 of the Week 6 poll. Out of the eight squads above, Florida is the only team that doesn’t fit the trend, ranked No. 18 in December’s poll.
Tip #3: 5 Seeds Have Never Won a National Title
When selecting a champ, team seeds should be kept in mind. Every seedline one through eight has won a national title — except for No. 5 seeds. In 2023, No. 5 San Diego State appeared in the national championship game, but it fell short against No. 4 UConn.
In the last 40 tournaments, 26 No. 1 seeds, five No. 2 seeds, four No. 3 seeds, two No. 4 seeds, one No. 6 seed, one No. 7 seed, and one No. 8 seed have won it all. As expected, the consistent pick is with No. 1 seeds, taking home 65 percent (26) of the past 40 titles.
No. 1 seeds are even more dominant in recent history; over the past 10 NCAA Tournaments, eight No. 1 seeds cut down the nets (or 80 percent). Perhaps the top seed isn’t the most exciting pick, but it yields results more often than not.
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Tip #4: Recent Tournaments Have Been Chalky
The 2025 NCAA Tournament featured all four No. 1 seeds in the national semifinals for the first time since 2008. An average of 1.6 No. 1 seeds per tournament appeared in the national semifinals from 2014 to 2024.
From 2013 to 2023, an average of 0.9 No. 1 seeds per tournament lost in the first weekend of play — the first or second round. Recent history busted that trend, with all four No. 1 seeds advancing to the Round of 16 in the last two tournaments.
While upsets are still bound to happen, the top dogs are creating separation from the pack. Perhaps this is a recent trend that could continue, with Name, Image, and Likeness (NIL) introduced in the 2021-22 season, allowing the teams with the most financial backing to recruit and pay the best talent — even more so than before.
With that in mind, don’t be afraid to lean on more chalk by selecting the lowest seed in matchups, especially when it comes to the top teams.
Tip #5: And Then There Were Four
The national semifinals also win some serious points in your bracket pool. Let’s go over a few trends for selecting the four teams that will play for all the marbles in Indianapolis this year.
Before the 2025 NCAA Tournament, a No. 4 seed or higher had advanced in the national semifinals in 14 consecutive brackets. Last year bucked that trend, but there’s still plenty of history there.
On average, one ACC per tournament has appeared in the national semifinals since 2015. This included some improbable runs, such as No. 11 NC State in 2024 and No. 5 Miami (FL) in 2023.
Perhaps that’s support for circling Duke in 2026, which is tied as the favorite to earn a national semifinal berth on PrizePicks Team Picks, with a 1.75x payout to make it to the round of four.
Predicting the correct national championship game produces a truckload of points in bracket pools, too, and six of the last 10 title games featured two No. 1 seeds duking it out.
Tip #6: Expect Some Double-Digit Seed Upsets
These tips have focused plenty on the later rounds with juicy bracket pool points. But is it any fun without upsets? Don’t worry, there will be plenty of them.
Since the 2015 NCAA Tournament, an average of 8.9 upsets — or the lower-seeded team defeating the higher seed — occurred in the first round of the NCAA Men’s Basketball Tournament.
This pertains to any lower seed grabbing a dub, including No. 9 seeds over the No. 9 seedline. Last season featured only seven first-round upsets, emphasizing the chalk discussed above.
However, over the last 10 tournaments, No. 10, 11, and 12 each average at least one first-round win per tournament.
- No. 10 seeds – 1.5 average first-round wins since 2015
- No. 11 seeds – 2.0
- No. 12 seeds – 1.3
- No. 13 and No. 14 seeds (combined) – 1.3
A No. 15 or 16 seed has not won a game over the last two tournaments. That’s the first time since 2014 and 2015 that back-to-back tournaments featured all one and two seeds advancing to the second round.
With that said, even last season’s chalky bracket still had seven first-round upsets — and five were double-digit seeds snagging Ws.
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Tip #7: Prepare for First Weekend Chaos
Upsets are still frequent in the first weekend — consisting of the first and second rounds, meaning surprise teams continue to earn Round of 16 bids.
Over the last 10 tournaments, 1.6 double-digit seeds per tournament advanced to the second weekend of the tournament.
Nine of the past 10 tournaments had a double-digit seed in the Round of 16. Even the chalky 2025 NCAA Tournament featured No. 10 Arkansas knocking off No. 2 St. John’s in the Round of 32.
Eight of the last 10 tournaments had at least one No. 2 seed losing in the first weekend of play. Furthermore, an average of 1.7 No. 3 seeds lost in the first weekend per year over the last 10 tournaments.
Maybe fans haven’t enjoyed the usual Cinderella runs or No. 1 or 2 seeds falling in the first round, but upsets still occur, even in the chalkiest brackets.
Tip #8: A Perfect Bracket is Nearly Impossible
Above all else, have fun with your bracket. Don’t let the multitude of trends and data drive you to insanity. Roll with your favorite data and go with your gut. Bumps in the road are inevitable.
You think winning the Powerball is impossible? Try hitting a perfect bracket. In fact, your chance at a perfect bracket — with zero ball knowledge — is a one in 9.2 quintillion chance.
There has never been a verified perfect bracket. A man from Ohio holds the best verifiable win streak with 49 consecutive correct picks to begin his 2019 NCAA Tournament bracket.
In short, try to be easy on yourself as you fill out your 2026 NCAA Tournament bracket, as no one has ever pulled off the nearly impossible feat of a perfect bracket.
Make NCAA Tournament Picks on PrizePicks
From upset predictions to national championship picks for the NCAA Tournament, PrizePicks has it all in one spot, giving you the chance to earn real money with sports picks.
Your NCAA Tournament bracket picks can translate to college basketball predictions on PrizePicks Team Picks, where you can make predictions on winners, spread, and over/unders — now available in 35 states. Team Picks also offers futures, including payouts for the national championship and teams to advance to each round of the 2026 NCAA Tournament.
Keep tabs on the Playbook for continued college basketball predictions, picks, and news all the way through the NCAA Tournament.
As Indiana Sen. Andrea Hunley prepares to run for Indianapolis mayor next year, she aims to set herself apart by drawing on more than 15 years of experience as an educator and principal.
In an exclusive interview with IndyStar ahead of her May 8 launch party, Hunley says she learned to build community face-to-face with parents, teachers and their children while also making tough decisions at the top. While her main opponent in the mayor’s race has spent more than a decade navigating city government, Hunley said she’ll bring that grassroots mindset to the mayor’s office.
About a year ahead of the May 2027 mayoral primary, Hunley, 42, sat down with IndyStar to discuss what she hopes to accomplish as mayor and how she thinks about hot-button issues like education, public safety and data centers.
At this point, Hunley will face longtime Indianapolis City-County Councilor Vop Osili and Department of Public Works administrator David Bride. Both candidates will also be invited for sit-down interviews with IndyStar in the coming weeks.
Hunley’s responses have been edited for clarity, brevity, length and style. Watch her full interview above.
After a career as an Indianapolis Public Schools principal and a public school teacher, you were elected to the Indiana Senate in 2022. What do you want to accomplish as mayor that’s leading you to step down after one term?
I loved my time in education, being a teacher and being a principal, and that’s where I spent the bulk of my career, two decades. And then going into the Senate, I never intended the Senate to become a career. I wanted to be elected, to work for the people, to do the work. And I think that running for mayor is just an extension of that.
I’m really excited to get to work more closely with the community, more closely with neighborhoods, and more closely with our business leaders, and then of course with our education leaders as well.
What are a few ways in which you’d aim to change or reshape the city as mayor? What do you envision?
I love that question because, really, this campaign and the reason why I’m running for mayor, it’s not because of my vision for the city, but it’s because of our collective vision for the city. I want this to be an opportunity for everyone to have a seat at the table to help write this next chapter together. That’s the key: that we want our pastors and our neighborhood advocates and our business leaders and artists and our hospitality folks, and, of course, anyone who has felt like they’ve never had a seat at the table, to all come together to create this vision.
That’s going to be, I think, what is different about this campaign, because I don’t know it all. And I shouldn’t pretend to know what everyone in the community needs. That’s not the role of government. The role of government is to serve, is to ask folks what they need, and then make sure that we are using their resources wisely to better their lives.
You’re outlining a difference in approach for how you’ll try to work with the neighborhoods. Could you just share more about the methods for achieving that and the outcomes that you hope it would support?
When I think about what Indy will look like a decade from now, we have opportunities to be really bold, to be really big. We could be a river city. We could be the women’s sports capital. We would have really strong schools in every single neighborhood. And we could be a place where everyone’s got an opportunity to thrive. We know that we could go really big and really bold.
We also have to handle the basics. We’ve got to fix the potholes. We’ve got to make sure that all of our neighborhoods are invested in. We’ve got to make sure that we’re taking care of our housing challenges. And we’ve got to make sure that we are taking care of our challenges with our young people who feel like they don’t have a lot of opportunities.
But we have people who’ve been doing that work. We have people who have been working in the community. We have people working towards the river plan. We have people working towards building out our opportunities for sports for women and girls. We just need to make sure that it’s cohesive and that we’ve got a shared vision and a shared focus and that we’re marching towards that.
Your main opponent at this stage, City-County Councilor Vop Osili, he has more than a decade of experience navigating city government. What about your professional and personal experience sets you apart from that level of experience?
I am so blessed to have worked in a school setting and to have learned leadership in a school building, and not in a conference room or in a campaign office. I think that that’s the piece that sets me apart.
I’ll be frank that running a business, running a school building where you’re serving staff and hundreds of families and students every single day, where I was responsible for a multi-million dollar budget for 11 years, and every decision rested with me. If I got it wrong for kids or for families, the buck stopped with me. It was on me to fix it. That’s a lot of responsibility. That’s a lot of weight.
I think that that’s the type of experience, really, that we need in a city leader: someone who knows what it means to work with families every day, who knows what it means to partner with community, and who knows what it means to own the hard stuff.
(Story continues below photo gallery.)
Talking about your experience as an educator, as a principal, you voted yes to the bill creating the Indianapolis Local Education Alliance, which in turn led to the formation of the Indianapolis Public Education Corporation. You voted against IPEC, [which is overseen by a nine-member board of mayoral appointees that strips some powers from the elected IPS school board].
What has gone wrong there in that effort to reshape public education, and what should change about this new entity?
When I think about school choice, wouldn’t it be amazing if when we said school choice, the obvious choice was staying in Indianapolis?
We have to grow our base of folks, we have to expand our population, and we’ve got to make sure that we have a talented workforce and that people want to live, work, play, and stay here. The only way we’re going to be able to do that is if we have really strong communities, and strong communities start with strong schools. So we have to make sure that we are really leveraging all of the resources that we have to make sure our schools are strong.
I did support the creation of the Local Education Alliance. What that was about is about creating an opportunity for the community to have voice, for the community to have say, and for decision-making to be local. We didn’t need the Statehouse telling us how to run education here in Indianapolis.
And yet, at the end, that’s essentially what happened with the IPEC board, the new board, that is [under] mayoral control, but still is the Statehouse saying, “This is the way you’re going to do things.” I think that what’s gone wrong is that we’ve taken control away from our community. We’ve taken control away from the voters, to really have a say in who their elected representatives are that represent them on the school board. And we will never, ever be able to have true representation if we don’t allow the people to have a vote.
As mayor, is it something you’d be advocating for at the Statehouse to perhaps reverse this new municipal corporation? Or do you think at this point you just have to to roll with it and go with the appointees?
I think at the end of the day, my North Star will always be what’s best for the people of Indianapolis, what is best for our city, what’s best for our community. And we’ve got to look at what’s going to get us to a strong and stable school system in Indianapolis Public Schools.
What we have to know, too, about the IPEC is that there are 11 school districts in Marion County. That IPEC board controls one of them, [IPS]. We need to make sure that in the mayor’s office, we don’t lose sight of the fact that we have public schools across the entire county that we’re responsible for. And so I think it’s going to be stepping back and taking that holistic approach of how are we serving every single kid?
Shifting gears, a big priority of the current administration has been budgeting for more than 1,700 police officers. But the Indianapolis Metropolitan Police Department remains hundreds short of that number. When you consider public safety, is bulking up the police force a main priority for you, or are there alternatives in which you’d look to invest more money?
We have to make sure that we are investing in our communities. That’s the key, is making sure that there’s economic opportunity in every community, that there’s opportunity to build generational wealth, that there’s opportunity for education.
Just a dose of prevention is worth an ounce of cure. I think that believing that we’re going to police our way or enforce our way out of our challenges is a fallacy. So we have to make sure that we’re focused on prevention, but we can do both things.
We’ve got great, great groups around the city that are doing this: Our Indy Peacekeepers and VOICES, and the list goes on and on. There are great groups that are already working on that prevention side, and we need to make sure that we’re really doubling down on those efforts. We have community, our community-led task force that we have working on all of this, as well as partnerships for mental health supports. I think all of those things are really good, and we need to make sure that we’re investing in that.
Because, I’ll tell you, the job of an officer is a challenge, and it’s no wonder that recruitment is hard. We can’t put everything on their plate. They can’t be the social workers and the pastors and the counselors. They can’t do all of those things. So we need to make sure that as a community, we’re investing in the other portion of it.
On this issue, public safety is something that Statehouse Republicans are often targeting and criticizing Indianapolis for. You’ve been a Statehouse Democrat, seen it from the inside. How do you think that will shape the way you would lead as mayor in your interactions with the Statehouse?
It’s been a challenge to be at the Statehouse in the minority, but it’s also been an incredible blessing because I’ve been able to form relationships with my colleagues there. I’ve been able to really understand where they’re coming from and also figure out where we have alignment.
I do think that I’ve got many folks in the Statehouse that are a phone call away who are eager to see Indianapolis thrive, who are eager to partner with a mayor to see Indianapolis thrive. Because at the end of the day, this city controls 30% of our state’s GDP. Our state thrives when Indianapolis thrives. And my colleagues, no matter what county they’re from, understand that.
Thinking about campaign financing, how do you think you would approach raising enough money to combat some of the large corporate checks that have gone to Mayor Hogsett traditionally, or in his absence could go to Councilor Osili. What’s your approach there in campaigning?
We are running a people-powered campaign. At the end of the day, it’s a people-powered campaign. We’ve got a big goal as part of our launch to make sure that we are engaging a lot of people and also hit a single-day record for the largest number of donations. That really is about making sure that folks know that this is a partnership, that this isn’t just my race, this is our race. I want them to join me in this.
I think that that’s just a different approach. I do have partners in the business community who I expect to write checks that have commas in them, because they can. I also know that my neighbors are going to be the bulk of my donors. Those neighbors that can drop in $5 or $10 or $20 because they believe in what’s possible. I would be lying if I didn’t say I wasn’t worried about dollars. Campaigns run on dollars. At the same time, I also know that campaigns run with heart and they run with a lot of volunteers as well, and we’ve got that in abundance.
Something you’ve mentioned before is that it’s not your “why” to be the first woman mayor, the first Black mayor, but both of those things would be significant achievements that haven’t happened in Indianapolis. How do you hope that they would shape the way you led and change the perspective at the top of the city?
I am deeply honored to have the opportunity to possibly be a first for Indy. At the same time, I don’t want to be the last. It’s my responsibility to lift as I climb. That is what my ancestors have done. That is what other women in the community have done for me, and I want to be able to do that exact same thing.
I also know that there’s a certain weight that is always, always on the shoulders of Black women, and it just is. That’s something that I’ve lived with my whole life, and that I know won’t be different right now. But I also know there’s something magical about us as Black women, that we make coalitions, we build them, and we shake up stagnant systems, and we hold folks accountable and say the hard things. And we also bring a little joy and fun. I’m excited about, showing our city what’s possible when you have that special mix.
If you look across our state right now, here in the state of Indiana, we are at a historic moment for Black mayors. We are at a historic moment for Black women mayors. We’ve got Black female mayors in Michigan City, in Fort Wayne, in Evansville, and Lawrence, right here in our backyard. While it might be historic for Indy, it’s not historic for Indiana.
I want to mention a few more policy issues that are hot button issues at the moment. I’ll start with data center developments. A lot of neighbors are upset about the prospect of these going near residential areas and creating limited jobs. What do you see as the role of data centers in the development of the city going forward?
I think the question is: What do we see as the role of city government in making sure that economic growth is inclusive? How do we make sure that any new businesses, new corporations, new entities that are coming to our city are truly creating a community benefit? We’ve got to weigh that out.
Right now, what we’re not seeing is a strategic vision. We’re not seeing a plan. We’re not seeing standards that have been set out by the city. We have to know what the end goal is so that we can then determine whether or not something is good for our community or not.
What’s the impact going to be on the environment? What’s the impact going to be on the neighborhoods? What’s the impact going to be on noise and pollution? What’s the impact going to be on jobs?
Because I’ll tell you, one of the data centers that’s coming into my Senate district in the middle of [the Martindale-Brightwood neighborhood] is going to provide, they said, maybe 10 jobs once the building is up and standing. We have to weigh out if that is worth all of the costs to the community.
Editor’s note: Metrobloks representatives say they expect the data center in Martindale-Brightwood to create closer to 45 permanent “high-skilled” jobs.
Should there be a moratorium to prevent more advancement until some regulations are in place?
I would support a moratorium to create a plan, a moratorium to slow us down, to really make sure that we’re looking at the entire landscape. There are other mayors, there are other city governments in Indiana who are doing this well. There are other folks who are saying, ‘OK, hold on, we need to look at what the impact is going to be on our energy costs. Can our grid handle this? How is this going to impact our electric bills?’ That’s not happening here.
Speaking of electric bills, what are some ways that you see the city could help with the rising cost of living and affordability issues?
Listen, it’s getting harder and harder right now. As I’m talking to folks, everybody feels broke. Because gas prices are high, you can’t afford your car note, and these utility bills and rents are going up. Half of folks in Marion County are renters. And so we also know that that’s an impact that we have there as well.
One of the long-term fixes is actually getting an affordable housing plan in place. We can expedite the zoning and approvals processes. Everything that we do that slows down the ability for developers to build that kind of “missing middle” housing costs more money in the end for the consumers, for us, every time we slow it down, every time we put in one more hurdle. There are ways that we can streamline, that we can make sure those processes don’t take three, four, five years because they shouldn’t.
On the short-term side, the city can also do more and do better to make sure that we’re partnering to prevent people from getting evicted in the first place. We’ve just eliminated some of our eviction prevention programs, which is really problematic. And we need to make sure that folks have that.
We also need to look at what’s happening in each of our townships. Depending on which court you go to, you get a different response. It costs different amounts. We need to make sure that we have a set of standards for what it means to support our Hoosier residents to make life just a little bit easier, a little bit more affordable and a little more stable.
You’ve said before that you bike to work. So I want to ask about Vision Zero, [the city’s plan to eliminate traffic-related deaths by 2035]. Some people feel like the policy is moving in the right direction, but not fast enough. If you get into office, will you accelerate that?
Policies, vision plans, all of those things can’t just be in a binder on a shelf. These are living, breathing opportunities for us to engage, for us to move forward, and for us to be in alignment on what the goals should be. They shouldn’t just be set and forgotten.
I love to bike. I love to walk. I walked here today and then I was late, so sorry about that. And riding IndyGo as well, I’ve got my MyKey pass on my phone, on my app. I love all of the opportunities that we have to build in exercise, to build in community on our way moving to where we’re going.
We’ve got to make sure that our streets are safe. And some of the efforts that have been put in place were well-intentioned but poorly designed: those strips of green on the street, where then someone’s going to make a right turn and they have to cross over and then they don’t look back.
There are things that we can be doing, that we should be doing, but it’s not about one plan. It’s about all of us as a community saying this is what’s important. It’s about prioritizing in in the budget, and it’s about making sure that everybody who’s on staff understands that that’s a priority as well.
My last question is, what do you think this election is ultimately about? What’s the story you want voters to take away from your campaign in the coming months?
This is about us. It’s about us looking at what’s possible. It’s about us looking at what’s next for our city. It’s about us coming together to say, we can partner, we can do more, we can do better because I don’t believe that this is as good as it gets. I think that Indy’s best days are ahead of us. I think that we need the momentum and the bold leadership to get there. And so it’s ultimately about whether or not people are ready to write a new chapter.
Email Indianapolis City Hall Reporter Jordan Smith at JTSmith@indystar.com. Follow him on X @jordantsmith09 and Bluesky @jordanaccidentally.bsky.social.
INDIANAPOLIS (WISH) — 45 employees and guests were forced to evacuate Sullivan’s Steakhouse on East 86th Street late Saturday night, which is right next to The Fashion Mall at Keystone.
According to a social media post from the Indianapolis Fire Department, just after 10 p.m., a fire broke out inside the kitchen exhaust hood system and spread to the roof.
Multiple 911 callers reported flames on the roof and the fire was marked as working while IFD crews were en route.
Firefighters say the aggressive fire was under control in 26 minutes.
Thankfully, no was one injured.
INDIANAPOLIS (WISH) — A man is dead, and a suspect has been detained following a shooting on Indy’s far east side.
The shooting took place around midnight Sunday near the intersection of East 10th Street and Shadeland Avenue.
Indianapolis Metropolitan Police Department officers arrived at the scene and found a man with multiple gunshot wounds. Medics rushed him to a hospital, where he later died.
Investigators say they believe it started as an altercation in the parking lot of a business before the shooting happened.
The suspect stayed on the scene and was later detained. IMPD says they located a gun in the suspect’s car.
IMPD Capt. John Arvin told media at the scene, “It’s Mother’s Day. Here’s the tragedy. A mother is going to get a knock on the door this morning that her son is dead. For the rest of her life, every Mother’s Day, she’s going to remember that’s the day my son died.
“That just makes this a senseless tragedy. We have no idea what the fight was over, what led to the shooting, but whatever it was, does it lead to someone’s mother knowing for the rest of her life my son died on mothers day. That’s just tragedy.”
Police say many of the surrounding businesses have security cameras, and they will contact them today to review the footage as part of the investigation.
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