How to Watch (and bet)

Date: Sunday, 1/5/25

Tip-Off Time: 1:00 pm PT

TV: Big Ten Network

Radio: Huskies Gameday App, Sports Radio KJR

Location: Seattle, Washington

Betting Line: Washington Huskies +10

Illinois Fighting Illini 2024-25 Statistics:

Record: 10-3 (2-1)

Points For per Game: 88.2 ppg (5th)

Points Against per Game: 66.5 ppg (55th)

Adjusted Offensive Efficiency: 119.5 (15th)

Adjusted Defensive Efficiency: 93.5 (7th)

Strength of Schedule: 44th

Illinois Key Players:

G- Kylan Boswell, Jr. 6’2, 205: 11.5 ppg, 4.7 rpg, 4.1 apg, 36.1% FG, 27.6% 3pt, 76.7% FT

Husky fans are familiar with Boswell as he spent the last 2 seasons at Arizona. He hasn’t quite lived up to the billing he had as a former 5-star recruit and is shooting a career worst on 3-pointers by far. Although he hit 4/5 against Oregon on Thursday. Boswell is a good passer but has been Illinois’ secondary ball handler for the most part despite career bests in both assist and turnover rate so far.

G- Kasparas Jakucionis, Fr. 6’6, 205: 16.3 ppg, 5.6 rpg, 5.4 apg, 49.2% FG, 42.9% 3pt, 86.8% FT

The Lithuanian freshman superstar is the big reason for Illinois not skipping a beat despite almost entirely flipping their roster from last year. He’s a jumbo point guard who is efficient shooting from everywhere on the court. If there’s one nitpick it’s that he commits way too many turnovers with 3.7 per game but despite that he is still a well above average offensive player given he does everything else well.

G- Tre White, Sr. 6’7, 210: 10.2 ppg, 5.4 rpg, 1.1 apg, 56.4% FG, 34.8% 3pt, 90.2% FT

White had a great freshman season at USC, transferred to a bad Louisville team last year, and now is thriving again on Illinois. He has been unstoppable inside the arc in Big Ten play so far shooting 82.4% on 2’s and 92.9% from the FT line in their 3 conference games. That includes a 20 pts, 11 reb, 4 ast, 2 blk game against Oregon this week. He doesn’t take a lot of him but it certainly doesn’t hurt that he also is shooting a career best on 3’s. Look at just about any rate stat and it’s a career high for White so far.

F- Ben Humirichous, Sr. 6’9, 225: 8.2 ppg, 2.8 rpg, 1.0 apg, 41.1% FG, 36.5% 3pt, 60.0% FT

You could argue that Humirichous is maybe the only disappointment on this Illinois roster so far. He shot 42.1% from deep last year at Evansville and that is down a little bit to 36.5% and just 28.6% in B1G play. Although like the rest of the team he broke out with 4/7 from deep against Oregon and a season-best 18 points. The other thing that has backslid is his rebounding. Looking at his statistical profile it’s about what you’d expect for a 6’2 SG who does nothing but take 3-pointers.

C- Tomislav Ivisic, Fr. 7’1, 255: 14.2 ppg, 9.2 rpg, 1.2 bpg, 53.0% FG, 37.9% 3pt, 73.3% FT

Technically, Ivisic is a sophomore in terms of eligibility as that was the NCAA compromise after the Croatian spent some time playing professionally in Europe. His brother plays at Arkansas but this Ivisic has come in and been dominant right away. He’s top-ten in the Big Ten in both offensive and defensive rebounding and is shooting 65% on 2’s and 38% on 3’s while also almost never turning over the ball. In Big Ten play so far he has actually taken more 3-pointers than 2-pointers despite being 7’1 so he sometimes is prone to settling for outside shots.

The Outlook

It’s fair to say that both teams are coming off of their best wins of the season on Thursday night. Washington was able to beat a top-25 Maryland team at home by 6 points. Good. Illinois meanwhile set an NCAA record for the biggest margin of victory over an AP Top-Ten team on the road with a 109-77 win. Yikes.

Before the Oregon game it would’ve been fair to question Illinois’ ability to win on the road. They lost by 13 to Alabama in a semi-away game and lost in OT to Northwestern at the beginning of December. But then they crushed Oregon into a fine powder by shooting 26/44 (59.1%) inside the arc and 16/29 (55.2%) beyond it.

It seems unlikely to think that Illinois can have that kind of performance again. Illinois has now scored at least 109 points in back-to-back games but even with that taken into consideration they still shoot just 34.9% on 3’s for the season. Of their 7 leaders in 3-point attempts this season, 4 of them shoot between 35% and 38%. It’s a team of guys who are good from deep but not quite lights out status.

Washington’s last 3 opponents have combined to shoot 9/46 (19.6%) from deep and on the season the Huskies rank in the top-20 nationally in both 3-point% defense and preventing opponents from attempting 3-point shot. Illinois doesn’t make a crazy percentage overall but they take 50% of their shots on the season from deep. It will be up to Washington to make them uncomfortable and force them to drive the ball as Illinois is 350th nationally in percentage of their points coming on 2-pointers.

There’s no reason though to think that Washington will light it up from deep. The Huskies have crawled out of their early shooting hole and are now merely bad rather than horrendous from deep at 32.2%. Illinois is also elite at preventing 3’s and rank 6th in opponent 3-pt% at 27.2% and 30th in preventing 3-point shots. It will be a struggle for Washington to even reach average although the Huskies still beat Maryland without doing so on Thursday.

It’s an interesting defensive strategy for Illinois but one that clearly works. The Illini are 12th or better in opponent shooting percentage on 2’s, 3’s and FTs. Almost no one is efficient shooting on them. They also rank 9th in defensive rebounding rate so they don’t allow second chance points.

There only 2 reasons anyone scores on Illinois. The first is that they are 333rd nationally in opponent turnover rate. They will guard the hell out of you but they aren’t going to gamble in the passing lanes or get overaggressive with their hands. The Huskies absolutely can’t throw the ball away and help Illinois in that regard. The Illini also play with the 18th fastest pace in the country so they want to run up and down and increase the number of total possessions. We’ll see if that helps or hurts the Huskies.

There will be opportunities inside for Great Osobor. Illinois has only one true shot blocker and it’s their backup center who plays about 14 minutes per game. Washington will need to repeatedly get the ball inside and score at the basket particularly in transition rather than settle for three-point shots. They’ll also need to aggressively chase Illinois off the three-point line and hope that they experience some regression to the mean with their outside shooting.

Thursday night’s game kicked off a stretch of 7 straight games against teams that rank in the top-27 at KenPom and 11 of 12 against top-45 teams. That’s absolutely brutal and even clawing out a 3-4 record in those first 7 contests would be a clear sign of progress for Washington. A good but not great Northwestern team held Illinois to 56 points in regulation and beat them in overtime last month. It’s possible. But it’s certainly not the most likely outcome.

Prediction

Washington Huskies– 75, Illinois Fighting Illini- 84