Connect with us

Illinois

Warmer winters and a hotter Gulf of Mexico could be contributing to more tornadoes in Illinois, experts say

Published

on

Warmer winters and a hotter Gulf of Mexico could be contributing to more tornadoes in Illinois, experts say


Illinois saw more tornadoes than any other state in 2023. Byron Hurley experienced that reality firsthand after three tornadoes touched down near his Chatham home in central Illinois last year.

“My house got hit on May 7. May 14 was a nasty supercell that hit Chatham,” Hurley said. “We also got some large hail on July 23. I rode that storm out in my car, taking cover at a drop-off area at a church just outside Chatham.”

According to Matthew Elliott, a meteorologist at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Illinois experienced 118 tornadoes last year — the third most in its history. The numbers have not yet been finalized, Elliott said, but are unlikely to change.

The number of tornadoes in any state fluctuates significantly from year to year, said Jeff Frame, a professor of climate, meteorology and atmospheric sciences at the University of Illinois. According to Frame, the biggest component is the state’s number of “outbreaks.”

Advertisement

The Glossary of Meteorology, published in 2000, describes a tornado outbreak as multiple tornado occurrences caused by the same weather event.

The third biggest tornado outbreak on record in Illinois occurred March 31, 2023, with 36 tornadoes in one day. The second largest outbreak was 50 years ago in 1974. Frame said most years with high numbers of tornadoes see at least one tornado outbreak.

“Weather patterns in 2022 were not conducive to a lot of thunderstorms and tornadoes,” Frame said. “But in 2023, they were helped along by a couple of big events, starting with a large tornado outbreak across the U.S.”

The 2023 numbers were a significant increase from the 34 tornadoes recorded in Illinois in 2022. Nationwide, NOAA preliminarily confirmed 1,269 tornadoes in 2023.

Studies have also found climate change may be affecting tornado patterns. Victor Gensini, a professor at Northern Illinois University, said climate change can affect the conditions necessary to create tornadoes.

Advertisement

Tornadoes need instability –– warm moist air near the ground with cooler temperatures higher up –– and wind shear –– a change in wind speed or direction –– to form. Instability is more potent in the warm seasons, and shear is usually stronger in the winter.

A woman walks past downed tree limbs on her property along Main Street in Belvidere, Illinois, on April 1, 2023. Tornado-strength winds on March 31 swept through the area and damaged the Apollo Theatre on nearby State Street, whose roof and marquee sign collapsed during a concert, injuring at least 40 people and killing one. (John J. Kim/Chicago Tribune)
Heavy equipment operators survey the exterior damage of the Apollo Theatre on April 1, 2023, in Belvidere. Tornado-strength winds on March 31 collapsed the venue's roof and marquee sign during a concert, injuring at least 28 people and one fatally. (John J. Kim/Chicago Tribune)
Heavy equipment operators survey the exterior damage of the Apollo Theatre on April 1, 2023, in Belvidere. Tornado-strength winds on March 31 collapsed the venue’s roof and marquee sign during a concert, injuring at least 40 people and killing one. (John J. Kim/Chicago Tribune)

As winters get warmer, Gensini said, there can be more instability and more shear –– leading to more winter tornadoes.

“It kind of has been a good example of what to expect with a warming climate with a much warmer winter, a much earlier start to spring, in a much faster start to tornado season,” Gensini said. “But we’re not sure if that’s a climate change signal or if that’s a signal of just weather or climate variability.”

According to Elliott, data has been inconsistent on the impact of climate change on tornadoes. But, he said, the times of year and the locations of tornadoes seem to be changing.

Walker Ashley, a professor of Earth, atmosphere and environment at Northern Illinois University, said increasing temperatures in the Gulf of Mexico may be affecting the number of tornadoes in states to its north –– including Illinois.

A hotter Gulf increases low-level moisture, which creates conditions ripe for tornadoes, Ashley said

Advertisement

“If the Gulf of Mexico is heating up under climate change, and we’ve seen it’s running hot, that increases your moisture and your instability,” Ashley said. “It makes sense the eastern part of the United States would heat up.”

Still, researchers cautioned against holding climate change entirely responsible for changing weather patterns in Illinois.

Technologies used to detect and predict tornadoes have adapted significantly over the last few decades, and are likely to have affected the number of tornadoes observed and recorded in Illinois –– especially since the state’s tornadoes tend to be low in intensity.

According to the National Weather Service, nearly 37% of tornadoes in northern Illinois from 1950 to 2017 were EF0 — the lowest intensity a tornado can be. Only 2% were classified as “violent.”

Out of the 22 days with tornado activity in 2023, four days caused injuries, two days saw property damage, and there were no days with crop damage, according to NOAA.

Advertisement
A wall sits partially collapsed on the 1500 block of North Fremont Street after strong storms passed through the area, June 13, 2022 in Chicago. During the event a tornado warning was issued for the Chicago area by the National Weather Service. (Armando L. Sanchez/Chicago Tribune)
A wall sits partially collapsed on the 1500 block of North Fremont Street in Chicago after strong storms passed through the area on June 13, 2022. During the event, the National Weather Service issued a tornado warning for the Chicago area. (Armando L. Sanchez/Chicago Tribune)

Hurley said the tornadoes that passed by his home in Chatham only caused tree damage. A conservationist who does storm chasing in his free time, Hurley said he followed multiple other tornadoes in Illinois last year, including one that started near Loami, 10 miles west of Chatham, on Aug. 6.

“I saw the beginning. … I had a great view of the wall cloud and bowl funnel near Loami but only got to see it briefly before falling too far behind,” Hurley said. “On Aug. 6, I got hailed on in Taylorville as well. It was a wild year, that’s for sure.”

Taylorville is about 30 miles southwest of Chatham.

Frame added that metropolitan areas throughout Illinois have also expanded in the past couple of decades. While lower-level tornadoes in rural areas may have gone undetected in the past, cellphones and population sprawl make them harder to miss in the 21st century.

“What we’re able to do is detect a lot more of these tornadoes with more spotters, better reporting technology, cellphones and internet, and better radar technology,” Frame said. “In 1960 you’re just never going to see those reports, because the technology and the infrastructure wasn’t there.”

While experts remain conflicted about the impacts of climate change on the number of tornadoes, they said Illinois residents should remain on high alert.

Advertisement

“It’s been an active year,” Gensini said. “I think we all need to be anticipating more of these tornado disasters. And that’s regardless of what’s happening with the frequency of climate change. Climate change is playing a role, an important role, but it’s not the only role.”



Source link

Illinois

5 tornadoes confirmed in Illinois from Friday’s storms

Published

on

5 tornadoes confirmed in Illinois from Friday’s storms


Freeze Watch

from MON 12:00 AM CDT until MON 9:00 AM CDT, Lake County, Kankakee County, La Salle County, DuPage County, Northern Will County, DeKalb County, Southern Will County, Kendall County, Southern Cook County, Northern Cook County, Grundy County, Eastern Will County, Kane County, McHenry County, Lake County, Newton County, Jasper County, Porter County



Source link

Continue Reading

Illinois

‘Credit card chaos’? Financial institutions bet big on repeal of first-of-its-kind Illinois law

Published

on

‘Credit card chaos’? Financial institutions bet big on repeal of first-of-its-kind Illinois law


“Credit cards may not work for sales tax or tips starting July 1.”

By now, you’ve heard that claim, but whether it’s true depends on who you ask.

Advertisement

The ads — funded by the Electronic Payments Coalition of banks, credit unions and card companies — argue that Illinois lawmakers must repeal the state’s first-in-the-nation Interchange Fee Prohibition Act, slated to take effect July 1. That law prohibits financial institutions from charging “swipe,” or interchange, fees on the tax and tip portions of consumer bills and bans them from making up the fees elsewhere.

If it’s not repealed? “Credit card chaos” may ensue, the ads warn.

While the financial institutions are quick to cite a list of things that could hypothetically happen if the law isn’t repealed, it’s harder to pin down what’s being done and by who to comply with the law two years after it was signed.

Advertisement

“The global payment system is not set up to where any one party to a transaction can make this happen on their own,” Ashley Sharp, of the Illinois Credit Union Association said at a Capitol news conference Wednesday. “There are multiple parties to every electronic transaction.”

The financial institutions are adamant that the global payment system as it exists today can’t discern the difference between tax, tips and total, and it would need to be retooled at a heavy cost to banks, card companies, merchants, point-of-sale companies and more.

Advertisement

Instead of complying, they say, the card companies could decide to stop serving Illinois or drastically alter the way the consumer interacts with merchants at the point of sale.

An alternate reality

But as with all matters in Springfield, there’s another big-monied and powerful group on the other side of the issue. The Illinois Retail Merchants Association says the credit card companies already track all the information they need, and it’s a “complete fabrication” to say that it would take more than a mere coding change to implement the state law.

Advertisement

Take your restaurant receipt, for example.

“You have the subtotal, the sales tax, the tip, if it’s applicable, and then the grand total, right? All they have to do is move their fee from the grand total to the subtotal,” Rob Karr, president of IRMA, said.

While card networks operate in over 200 countries with as many different laws, they say the only information the card processors ask for in any of them is the grand total. The receipt example, they say, erroneously conflates the point of sale with the actual processing of payments.

Advertisement

In short, the two sides present starkly different realities — a muddying of the water that’s not uncommon at the Capitol.

But there is one concrete truth: The financial institutions have a lot to lose, and not just in Illinois.

Advertisement

The tax and tip prohibition would shave approximately 10% off the revenue that banks and credit unions receive from retailers via interchange fees — a transfer of wealth likely to number in the hundreds of millions. It would also create massive noncompliance fines.

And then there’s the issue of precedent. The banks challenged the law but lost in court. Absent a successful appeal, the remaining battlefields would be other state legislatures.

If the card companies implement Illinois’ law, they’d be providing a blueprint for states across the nation to emulate — driving potential revenue loss into the billions.

Advertisement

Thus far, Ben Jackson of the Illinois Bankers Association said, it hasn’t opened the floodgates, although some 30 states are considering similar action.

Still, it’s no wonder then, that the Electronic Payments Coalition has pulled out all the stops in its seven-figure ad campaign to repeal the law.

Advertisement

How we got here

To fully understand the ongoing slugfest between banks and retailers, you have to go back to May 2024.

But first, an explanation of interchange fees. Each time a shopper swipes their credit or debit card, it sets off a complicated string of payments between banks. The retailer’s bank pays an “interchange fee,” typically around 1% to 2% of the transaction cost, to the consumer’s bank. The fees include both a set amount and a percentage of the transaction, but the credit card companies, namely Visa and Mastercard, control how they’re calculated.

Advertisement

The financial institutions say interchange fees help fund credit card reward programs and security upgrades and provide compensation for bearing the risk of fraud. The hit to interchange revenue, Jackson said, would inevitably lessen reward program offerings. Sharp said credit unions, as not-for-profit cooperatives, use the revenue to offer lower rates to customers.

But the fees have long drawn the ire of retailers and small businesses, which sometimes pass the costs directly to consumers via a surcharge on bills.

It comes down to this: The retailers don’t think they should have to pay a fee on the tax and tip portion of a transaction that they don’t keep. And the financial institutions say if they’re handling those funds, they should be compensated for doing so via interchange fees.

Advertisement

As for the Illinois law’s passage, it was, as the ads claim, tucked into the budget two years ago, giving little time for the bankers et al to mount an opposition campaign.

Gov. JB Pritzker and lawmakers agreed to raise about $101 million in revenue to plug a budget hole by putting a $1,000 monthly cap on the “retailer’s exemption,” a tax break retailers claim for being the state’s de facto sales tax collectors.

Advertisement

But the retailers weren’t going to take that lying down, and IRMA successfully lobbied for the long-sought tax and tip exemption.

After the law passed, the financial institutions quickly sued.

To avoid uncertainty as the case played out, lawmakers delayed the measure’s effective date from July 1 last year to the same date this year.

Advertisement

U.S. District Judge Virginia Kendall ultimately determined in February that Illinois is within its right to regulate the fees. She partially rejected a portion of the law that prohibited banks from sharing certain data, which the credit unions say creates different rules for different institutions and further uncertainty.

The case is now pending appeal, and the legislative process is starting anew.

Advertisement

This time, the financial institutions have mounted a dual front in the court of public opinion.

The cost of compliance

Karr estimated the prohibition would bring in “north of $200 million” for retailers — essentially letting them pocket that sum instead of transferring it to the banks. A study by the Electronic Payments Coalition pegged the number at $118 million, estimating that about 40% of the interchange windfall would go to the 40 largest retailers.

Advertisement

Even so, Karr said, the largest retailers are subject to the $1,000 monthly retailer exemption cap that accompanied the swipe fee ban, while smaller retailers don’t reach that mark. Add in their cut on reimbursed swipe fees, and it amounts to what Karr calls “the largest small business relief that Illinois has ever passed.”

But Jackson argued the cost of retailers complying could eat up any benefits for smaller retailers.

As for compliance, Kendall wrote in her February opinion that “It is an open question whether the transaction process could adapt to the impact of the IFPA in time.”

Advertisement

“The Interchange Fee Provision is indisputably disruptive, requiring additional investments, hires, and new procedures to replace the current process for authorizing and settling debit and credit card transactions,” she wrote.

The financial institutions argue it can’t all be done by July 1. Kendall said the parties involved know what’s required of them.

Advertisement

“But those procedural changes are the product of an ecosystem built by Payment Card Networks and financial institutions to facilitate consumer transactions,” she wrote. “And these entities understand the onus of IFPA compliance is on them.”

Per the coalition, compliance “would require coordination across the industry and regulators worldwide,” including with the International Organization for Standardization. It would also require more data collection, creating privacy concerns, they say.

Those global changes would require testing and certification of new equipment. Depending on their card companies or point-of-sale vendors, retailers may need to invest in new equipment, software and training.

Advertisement

Banks and credit unions may also have to add staff to process rebates under the law. It allows retailers or their processing companies to petition their financial institutions for reimbursement on fees charged on tax and tips within 180 days of a transaction.

If financial institutions don’t comply within 30 days, the law provides for civil penalties of $1,000 per each transaction — and hundreds of millions of these transactions happen annually.

Advertisement

So will that chaos come to fruition?

Instead of complying, according to the coalition’s literature, the card companies could just stop processing cards altogether in Illinois. They could also stop processing tax and tip portions or require two separate swipes for the subtotal and the tax and tip portion of bills.

Such claims aren’t uncommon in the legislature’s annual adjournment push.

Advertisement

Sports betting companies, for example, threatened to leave Illinois when the state raised its gambling taxes in the same budget cycle that yielded the interchange fee prohibition two years ago. Instead, they adapted, because Illinois has a lot of bettors — and there’s even more card users.

Karr accused the coalition of ulterior motives in their use of hypothetical language.

“There is no need for chaos,” he said. “The only chaos is if the credit card companies impose it themselves on their consumers.”

Advertisement

Ultimately, lawmakers will have to weigh how compelling the arguments are, if the courts don’t intervene first.

It’s possible that the 7th Circuit appellate court — or even the U.S. Supreme Court — gives the banks a win. But oral arguments are slated for May 13, meaning the appellate court might not rule by the time the law is slated to take effect.

Advertisement

Adding a new wrinkle on Wednesday, the federal office of the Comptroller of the Currency, a subset of the U.S. Treasury Department, appeared poised to issue an order preempting Illinois’ law. It hadn’t been published as of late Wednesday, making its impact unclear.

“While the office has failed to explain their reasoning or allow public review, it’s clear the goal is an end-run around the legal process after a judge recently upheld the law,” Karr said.

As for the legislative prospects, state Rep. Margaret Croke, D-Chicago, says she’s seen enough to be concerned. The Democratic nominee for comptroller is sponsoring a bill to fully repeal Illinois’ interchange fee prohibition.

Advertisement

But as of last week, she said she wasn’t planning to move it. Instead, she finds it more likely that lawmakers once again delay the law’s implementation.

“If this is a policy that the state of Illinois decides they’re going to want to have, then we need to make sure we’re doing it properly,” she said.

Advertisement

___

This story was originally published by Capitol News Illinois and distributed through a partnership with The Associated Press.

IllinoisMoneyIllinois PoliticsBusiness
Advertisement



Source link

Continue Reading

Illinois

Likely tornado wallops small village in Illinois, ripping down power lines and stripping roofs

Published

on

Likely tornado wallops small village in Illinois, ripping down power lines and stripping roofs


LENA, Ill. (AP) — A likely tornado tore through a small village in northwest Illinois on Friday, ripping down power lines and trees, stripping roofs and forcing officials to shut down the community.

The storm caused “extensive damage” throughout Lena, with trees and other debris blocking roadways and “compromised structures” causing hazardous conditions, according to the Stephenson County Sheriff’s Office.

“We are extremely fortunate that this storm did not result in loss of life or serious injury,” Sheriff Steve Stovall said in a statement.

Advertisement

The sheriff’s office announced Friday evening on social media that there would be no traffic in or out of the village until further notice. It later said entry was “strictly restricted.”

The National Weather Service said the damage was likely caused by a tornado and it would survey the area over the weekend.

Leo Zach, 14, had just gotten to the village’s high school’s band room for a music competition when the building started shaking and the power went out. He said the room was packed with students and some were very scared and had panic attacks.

“I’m definitely on the luckier side of how that could’ve happened,” he said. “I was just trying to stay calm, help other people.”

When they got outside, they found some of the windows blown out in the gym and part of the school’s roof ripped off.

Advertisement

Photos and video posted online showed a garage totaled, bricks torn off of buildings and fences demolished.

Lena is a village of nearly 3,000 people, located about 117 miles (188 kilometers) northwest of Chicago.

A post on Lena’s Facebook page called the scene “devastating.”

“There will be challenges ahead, but we will rebuild, recover, and come through this stronger together,” the post said.

Rachel Nemon had been going to pick up her stepson from the village’s middle school when she had to pull into a car wash to take cover from the storm. She watched a large tree get ripped from the ground and sparks fly feet in front of her.

Advertisement

“This is something that you see online, not in real life, especially in a small town in Illinois,” she said.

Gov. JB Pritzker said in a post on the social platform X that he’s been briefed on the damage and that the Illinois Emergency Management Agency is on the ground.

Copyright 2026 The Associated Press. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten or redistributed without permission.



Source link

Advertisement
Continue Reading
Advertisement

Trending