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Warmer winters and a hotter Gulf of Mexico could be contributing to more tornadoes in Illinois, experts say

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Warmer winters and a hotter Gulf of Mexico could be contributing to more tornadoes in Illinois, experts say


Illinois saw more tornadoes than any other state in 2023. Byron Hurley experienced that reality firsthand after three tornadoes touched down near his Chatham home in central Illinois last year.

“My house got hit on May 7. May 14 was a nasty supercell that hit Chatham,” Hurley said. “We also got some large hail on July 23. I rode that storm out in my car, taking cover at a drop-off area at a church just outside Chatham.”

According to Matthew Elliott, a meteorologist at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Illinois experienced 118 tornadoes last year — the third most in its history. The numbers have not yet been finalized, Elliott said, but are unlikely to change.

The number of tornadoes in any state fluctuates significantly from year to year, said Jeff Frame, a professor of climate, meteorology and atmospheric sciences at the University of Illinois. According to Frame, the biggest component is the state’s number of “outbreaks.”

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The Glossary of Meteorology, published in 2000, describes a tornado outbreak as multiple tornado occurrences caused by the same weather event.

The third biggest tornado outbreak on record in Illinois occurred March 31, 2023, with 36 tornadoes in one day. The second largest outbreak was 50 years ago in 1974. Frame said most years with high numbers of tornadoes see at least one tornado outbreak.

“Weather patterns in 2022 were not conducive to a lot of thunderstorms and tornadoes,” Frame said. “But in 2023, they were helped along by a couple of big events, starting with a large tornado outbreak across the U.S.”

The 2023 numbers were a significant increase from the 34 tornadoes recorded in Illinois in 2022. Nationwide, NOAA preliminarily confirmed 1,269 tornadoes in 2023.

Studies have also found climate change may be affecting tornado patterns. Victor Gensini, a professor at Northern Illinois University, said climate change can affect the conditions necessary to create tornadoes.

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Tornadoes need instability –– warm moist air near the ground with cooler temperatures higher up –– and wind shear –– a change in wind speed or direction –– to form. Instability is more potent in the warm seasons, and shear is usually stronger in the winter.

A woman walks past downed tree limbs on her property along Main Street in Belvidere, Illinois, on April 1, 2023. Tornado-strength winds on March 31 swept through the area and damaged the Apollo Theatre on nearby State Street, whose roof and marquee sign collapsed during a concert, injuring at least 40 people and killing one. (John J. Kim/Chicago Tribune)
Heavy equipment operators survey the exterior damage of the Apollo Theatre on April 1, 2023, in Belvidere. Tornado-strength winds on March 31 collapsed the venue's roof and marquee sign during a concert, injuring at least 28 people and one fatally. (John J. Kim/Chicago Tribune)
Heavy equipment operators survey the exterior damage of the Apollo Theatre on April 1, 2023, in Belvidere. Tornado-strength winds on March 31 collapsed the venue’s roof and marquee sign during a concert, injuring at least 40 people and killing one. (John J. Kim/Chicago Tribune)

As winters get warmer, Gensini said, there can be more instability and more shear –– leading to more winter tornadoes.

“It kind of has been a good example of what to expect with a warming climate with a much warmer winter, a much earlier start to spring, in a much faster start to tornado season,” Gensini said. “But we’re not sure if that’s a climate change signal or if that’s a signal of just weather or climate variability.”

According to Elliott, data has been inconsistent on the impact of climate change on tornadoes. But, he said, the times of year and the locations of tornadoes seem to be changing.

Walker Ashley, a professor of Earth, atmosphere and environment at Northern Illinois University, said increasing temperatures in the Gulf of Mexico may be affecting the number of tornadoes in states to its north –– including Illinois.

A hotter Gulf increases low-level moisture, which creates conditions ripe for tornadoes, Ashley said

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“If the Gulf of Mexico is heating up under climate change, and we’ve seen it’s running hot, that increases your moisture and your instability,” Ashley said. “It makes sense the eastern part of the United States would heat up.”

Still, researchers cautioned against holding climate change entirely responsible for changing weather patterns in Illinois.

Technologies used to detect and predict tornadoes have adapted significantly over the last few decades, and are likely to have affected the number of tornadoes observed and recorded in Illinois –– especially since the state’s tornadoes tend to be low in intensity.

According to the National Weather Service, nearly 37% of tornadoes in northern Illinois from 1950 to 2017 were EF0 — the lowest intensity a tornado can be. Only 2% were classified as “violent.”

Out of the 22 days with tornado activity in 2023, four days caused injuries, two days saw property damage, and there were no days with crop damage, according to NOAA.

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A wall sits partially collapsed on the 1500 block of North Fremont Street after strong storms passed through the area, June 13, 2022 in Chicago. During the event a tornado warning was issued for the Chicago area by the National Weather Service. (Armando L. Sanchez/Chicago Tribune)
A wall sits partially collapsed on the 1500 block of North Fremont Street in Chicago after strong storms passed through the area on June 13, 2022. During the event, the National Weather Service issued a tornado warning for the Chicago area. (Armando L. Sanchez/Chicago Tribune)

Hurley said the tornadoes that passed by his home in Chatham only caused tree damage. A conservationist who does storm chasing in his free time, Hurley said he followed multiple other tornadoes in Illinois last year, including one that started near Loami, 10 miles west of Chatham, on Aug. 6.

“I saw the beginning. … I had a great view of the wall cloud and bowl funnel near Loami but only got to see it briefly before falling too far behind,” Hurley said. “On Aug. 6, I got hailed on in Taylorville as well. It was a wild year, that’s for sure.”

Taylorville is about 30 miles southwest of Chatham.

Frame added that metropolitan areas throughout Illinois have also expanded in the past couple of decades. While lower-level tornadoes in rural areas may have gone undetected in the past, cellphones and population sprawl make them harder to miss in the 21st century.

“What we’re able to do is detect a lot more of these tornadoes with more spotters, better reporting technology, cellphones and internet, and better radar technology,” Frame said. “In 1960 you’re just never going to see those reports, because the technology and the infrastructure wasn’t there.”

While experts remain conflicted about the impacts of climate change on the number of tornadoes, they said Illinois residents should remain on high alert.

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“It’s been an active year,” Gensini said. “I think we all need to be anticipating more of these tornado disasters. And that’s regardless of what’s happening with the frequency of climate change. Climate change is playing a role, an important role, but it’s not the only role.”



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Illinois

Kasparas Jakucionis scores 21, lifts Illinois over Missouri in thriller

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Kasparas Jakucionis scores 21, lifts Illinois over Missouri in thriller



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ST. LOUIS (AP) — Kasparas Jakucionis scored 21 points, including the go-ahead basket with 28 seconds left and Illinois defeated Missouri 80-77 on Sunday in the annual Braggin’ Rights game between the nonconference rivals.

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Illinois held the lead for nearly 30 minutes of game time, but a late rally by Missouri took the game down to the wire. An 11-0 run, capped by Trent Pierce’s layup gave the Tigers a 68-67 lead with about 4 minutes to go.

Jakucionis hit a straight-on 3-pointer for a 75-72 Illinois lead with 2 minutes remaining, but Missouri’s Tamar Bates hit a wide-open 3 in transition to tie it at 75 with 1:14 to go.

After the teams exchanged free throws, Jakucionis, a freshman who has six consecutive 20-point games, drove the right side of the line, stopped, pivoted and hit a turnaround jumper to put Illinois ahead 79-77 with 28 seconds left.

After a miss by Missouri, Kylan Boswell made one of two free throws for a three-point lead. Jacob Crews missed a 3-pointer that could have tied it for Missouri.

Boswell made 11 of 12 free throws and Jakucionis went 8 for 8 for Illinois, which was 22 of 23 from the line. Missouri made 28 free throws but shot only 76% from the line. There 43 total fouls in the game.

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Boswell had 16 points, nine rebounds and five assists for Illinois (8-3). Tre White scored 13 and Tomislav Ivisic had 11 points and 10 rebounds.

Mark Mitchell and Tony Perkins scored 18 points each and Bates had 17 for Missouri (10-2), which saw its 10-game winning streak come to an end.

Illinois hosts Chicago State on Dec. 29 and Missouri hosts Alabama State on Dec. 30.

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Illinois Coach Brad Underwood Praises Mizzou After Braggin’ Rights Showdown

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Illinois Coach Brad Underwood Praises Mizzou After Braggin’ Rights Showdown


ST. LOUIS —  After each of the last three Braggin’ Rights games between the Missouri Tigers and the Illinois Fighting Illini have been decided by 20 or more points, Illinois head coach Brad Underwood believes gave fans “a pretty good show” Sunday.

The game was tied at 72, 75 and 77 in the final 2:30 of play before Illinois finally created separation with a successful jump shot from Kasparas Jakucionis with 28 seconds remaining to secure a 80-77 win for Illinois.

“We kept our foot on the shovel and we kept digging,” Missouri head coach Dennis Gates said of Missouri’s performance in the final minutes. “That’s the sign of a good team.”

Illinois has been ranked as high as 19th in the AP Poll this season before falling out of the rankings on Dec. 9. The Tigers received more votes than Illinois in the most recent AP Poll, with both just outside of the top 25. But Sunday showed why both Missouri and Illinois could continue to rise throughout the remainder of the season.

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“That’s two really good basketball teams,” Underwood said after the win for Illinois. “It makes this game another game that is great for college basketball.”

Being able to compete with a team as formidable as Illinois was not something the Tigers did often through the 2023-’24 season, going 0-18 in SEC play. But, Missouri is already starting to show signs of steering the ship back in the right direction. First with an upset win over Kansas on Dec. 8, and now with this performance against Illinois.

“Dennis does a fabulous job,” Underwood said. Coming off the year they had last year, is putting together a really good team.”

Sunday’s matchup was the 55th annual Braggin’ Rights showdown, host to a historic rivalry. Even with the loss, Missouri showed why they could reach the NCAA Tournament for the first time since the 2022-’23 season, Gates’ first year as the program’s head coach.

“When you get those two teams together, and you get them in the unique circumstances, you get a crowd like today, which, by the way, ours was fantastic,” Underwood said. “That’s an NCAA tournament team.”

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Mizzou Loses at Buzzer to Illinois in Braggin’ Rights Game



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What I'm looking at: Illinois

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What I'm looking at: Illinois


What I’m looking at: Illinois

We’ve reached the second rivalry game as the Tigers (10-1) take on the Illinois Fighting Illini (7-3) in the annual Braggin’ Rights matchup in St. Louis.

Here’s what I’ll be keeping an eye on at noon at the Enterprise Center in St. Louis (ESPN).

Scouting Report

Illinois enters the 55th edition of the rivalry matchup and 43rd in St. Louis coming off a last-second 66-64 loss to No. 1 Tennessee.

The Illini have played a very tough schedule to this point, losing to No. 8 Alabama, No. 1 Tennessee and Northwestern in the Dec. 6 opener of Big 10 play, as well as beating No. 19 Arkansas and No. 20 Wisconsin.

There’s exactly one player on Illinois’ team who appeared in last year’s Braggin’ Rights matchup, 6-foot-1, 185-pound sophomore guard Dra Gibbs-Lawhorn, who played 3 minutes without a stat other than a missed shot in last year’s game and is averaging about 13.8 minutes per game, appearing in all 10 this season.

Otherwise, it’s a fully new Illini roster.

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Freshman guard Kasparas Jakucionis (6-6, 205) has taken the lead for Illinois this year, scoring 16.1 points to go with 6.1 rebounds per contest and a team-high 5.6 assists per game. The do-it-all guard hits 42 percent of his attempts from 3 (21-of-50) and is tied for first on the team in makes from deep while being 10 attempts behind 6-9, 225-pound graduate forward Ben Humrichous, who has made 21-of-60 from deep.

Sophomore center Tomislav Ivisic (7-1, 255) who is from Croatia, is second on the team at 14.2 points per game to go with his near double-double average of 9.7 boards per contest. Freshman forward Will Riley (6-8, 195) adds 13.5 points and 4.2 rebounds per game, while 6-2, 205-pound junior guard Kylan Boswell scores 10.1 points per game to go with 4.1 rebounds per contest.

All four have played in all 10 games, though Riley has come off the bench in all 10.

The Illini have used the same starting 5 in every game with Jakucionis, Ivisic, Boswell, junior guard Tre White (6-7, 210) and Humrichous.

The Illini score 84 points a game and give up 64.6.

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Illinois shoots 43.2 percent from the field, 32.4 percent from 3 and 73.5 percent from the free-throw line, while allowing opponents to shoot 36.9/23.9/61.5.

Illinois leads the all-time series 34-20 and holds a 26-16 advantage for matchups in St. Louis, including a 97-73 win last season. But the Illini hold just a 6-4 lead in the past 10 games.

Matchups

Mizzou’s perimeter defense vs. Jakucionis

The Tigers allow opponents to shoot just 33.2 percent from beyond the arc, which is surprisingly low considering the amount of open looks it feels like the Tigers give up every game.

Jakucionis comes in firing from deep. If Mizzou leaves him open, there’s going to be some major issues, especially if he hits a few early.

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The Tiger defense needs to stay locked on Kajucionis around the perimeter as much as possible. He’s definitely a major threat closer to the basket, too, but a few early, open 3s could give the Illini the momentum and the Tigers need to take it early and run with it like they did in the Border War.

Mizzou’s defense forcing turnovers

We’re sticking with the defense with the second matchup.

The Illini commit 11.2 turnovers a game and force only 10.4, so Illinois is running a deficit game-to-game.

For the Border War, I said one of the routes to a win was the Tiger defense forcing a lot of early turnovers and building a lead, then holding onto the momentum. That’s the same case here and the 2022 Braggin’ Rights matchup is the prime example to look at.

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If Mizzou is able to play in transition early and get some easy looks, that sets the Tigers up about as well as possible against a team they don’t necessarily match up well with.

Josh Gray vs. Tomislav Ivisic

This one is just interesting to me.

Watching two talented 7-footers battle it out in the post is always fun. I think Ivisic is the type of post player that’s going to go right at Gray more than Hunter Dickinson did, so another game where Gray makes a big, immediate difference in the post could go a long way to the Tigers getting their 11th consecutive win.

What I’m looking for

Has to be a quick start like we saw in the Border War.

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If the Tigers are going to win both of their rivalry games this year, they have the formula and showed they can do it.

They don’t need a 29-point night from Tamar Bates again, though that would be a good way to keep the offense moving, but there’s going to have to be a big offensive night from somebody.

Both teams like to play in transition, which is going to lead to some turnovers, if the Tigers are able to take advantage and force Illinois into some early ones that lead to easy buckets, that’s the best setup Mizzou can have for this game.

And once again, gotta try to keep away that offensive lull. It’s probably going to happen at some point, we see it just about every game. The Tigers pulled out the win against kansas because they built up a big enough lead to withstand a long lull.

That’s a lot to ask them to do again, so instead, how about we ask for a shorter lull. Maybe only five minutes instead of 13 where the offense looks awful.

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No lull at all would be fantastic, but feels like too big of an ask at this point until we see them go without one against a good team.

And just for my sake:

I already have one of my favorite coverage assignments I’ve gotten to experience in this year’s Border War. The 2022 version of Braggin’ Rights is another one that’s up there for me because it was my first time covering a game courtside and the way that game went, I could feel the energy from the Mizzou side of the arena all night.

I was sent up to the top of the arena for last year’s game and it definitely affected the experience, but I got confirmation Friday that I’m back on the floor this year, so hopefully the Tigers can give me a second of my favorite games I’ve ever covered in the same basketball season.

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Make sure you’re caught up on all the Tiger news and headlines

You can follow me on X @kyle_mcareavy for more news and updates.



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