A recent study published by three state agencies warns electricity shortages are coming to Illinois.

The shortages will start in PJM Interconnection’s regional transmission system by 2029, with the shortage hitting Illinois’ ComEd territory (which is within PJM) beginning in 2030, and then kicks in hard by 2032.

Capacity shortages in downstate Ameren’s territory are expected to begin in 2031 and escalate through 2035, when the stuff hits the fan. Ameren is in the Midcontinent Independent System Operator’s, or MISO’s, regional transmission network.

The report acknowledges that some fossil fuel power plants might have to remain open at least in the short-term, despite the state’s ambitious climate goals. A bill passed the legislature in October to facilitate that.

The Illinois Power Agency, the Illinois Environmental Protection Agency and the Illinois Commerce Commission conducted the study.

Massive increases in power needs by data centers are the “primary driver” of increased electricity demand, according to the report. Those gigantic increases were not foreseen when the state designed its landmark clean energy law in 2021 requiring net-zero carbon energy by 2045.

Coal and gas plants “are planned to retire across both [PJM and MISO] due to age, economics and emissions limits,” the new report points out, and that’s also contributing to the coming shortage.

Also problematic is the fact that new gas plant equipment takes 5-7 years to purchase and install, and the plants face additional siting and permitting barriers. Wind and solar face serious obstacles as well..

All that results in this warning from the three state agencies: “These conditions create a credible risk of regional capacity shortfalls that will impact Illinois’ future ability to import power during critical hours and may cause reliability issues in Illinois even if Illinois market zones have enough capacity to meet their [resource adequacy] requirements as determined by [PJM and MISO].”

Translation: Even if Illinois produces more power, we still might be in big trouble because other states are facing similar problems.

In the ComEd region alone, projected load growth “drives a 24% increase in resource adequacy requirements between 2025 and 2030, which contributes to growing dependence on external capacity even before the onset of an outright shortfall in 2032.”

However, the report claims, “The state can successfully navigate both near-term reliability risks and longer-term decarbonization goals through a diversified resource strategy.” That strategy includes “the continued use” of fossil fuel plants “even as their energy output declines with higher renewable penetration.”

Another study will be published in 2027. The report said that study will likely include increased renewables and battery storage but will also look at “delays and/or reductions” to emissions requirements allowed by the Clean and Reliable Grid Affordability Act, which passed in October.

That’s cutting it awful close. Some business groups, including the Illinois Manufacturers’ Association, want the state to act immediately to keep existing fossil fuel plants open.

Forty years ago, Illinois had some of the highest electric utility rates in the Midwest. Then, after the state deregulated the industry, our costs became far more competitive and the state used those low rates to lure new businesses.

But then abundant supply (encouraged by deregulation) pushed rates to a point where some nuclear power plant owners couldn’t afford to operate, so Illinois had to force consumers to subsidize the plants.

Then, with the gigantic data center and resulting artificial intelligence booms, along with aging plants going offline, electricity started becoming scarce again and rates have gone up.

Unilaterally cutting off data center expansion here won’t work because the state is part of those two large regional power distribution networks. They’ll just cross the state lines and continue consuming our juice.

Maybe the AI bubble will burst. But what is clear is that Illinois laws have to be flexible enough to deal with the unexpected, and that obviously hasn’t been the case

Yes, coal plants were closing anyway because they aren’t cost competitive. Same with some gas plants. But government operates so slowly that few have confidence it can turn the ship around in time to avert a coming shortage.

Everyone is pointing to the recently passed Clean and Reliable Grid Affordability Act as a possible solution because it gives the state more pollution control flexibility, but even that may not be adequate if there’s not enough will at the top to make extra sure we don’t enter a crisis stage.

The governor has expressed confidence that the state can handle this. But businesspeople are rightly freaking out.

Climate change is real. But if the lights don’t go on, or the local factories close, nobody will care about excuses. They’ll just want it fixed.

Rich Miller also publishes Capitol Fax, a daily political newsletter, and CapitolFax.com.