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Movement for Illinois Basketball in Bracketology and Advanced Metrics?

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Movement for Illinois Basketball in Bracketology and Advanced Metrics?


Illinois has lost back-to-back games for the first time this season, falling 85-82 in overtime at Michigan State on Saturday and 92-90 in overtime at home against Wisconsin on Tuesday.

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That led to a notable change in one updated NCAA Tournament projection, despite the NET rankings and KenPom still holding the Illini in high regard.

With six Big Ten games remaining and the conference tournament ahead, a lot can change come Selection Sunday. But here’s a closer look at where Illinois stands in recent projections and updated rankings:

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Illinois falls in CBS Sports’ updated Bracketology

Illinois Fighting Illini head coach Brad Underwood talks to forward David Mirkovic (0) against the Northwestern Wildcats at State Farm Center. | Ron Johnson-Imagn Images

Illinois fell from a No. 2 to a No. 3 seed in CBS Sports’ updated Bracketology after Tuesday’s loss to Wisconsin. However, the outlet noted that its model still projects the Illini to climb back up to the No. 2 line come Selection Sunday, so it could be just a temporary setback.

In this scenario, Illinois would play No. 14 seed Winthrop in the Round of 64, followed by a matchup against No. 6 seed Clemson or No. 11 seed Miami (Ohio). Out of the MAC, Miami (24-0) is the nation’s last undefeated team, while Clemson is second in the ACC standings at 20-4 and 10-1.

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One of the teams Illinois is battling for a No. 2 seed is Purdue, which moved up from a No. 3 to a No. 2 seed after the Boilermakers’ overtime win at No. 7 Nebraska on Tuesday. Purdue (10-3) is a half game behind Illinois (11-3) in the Big Ten standings and lost a head-to-head meeting to the Illini at Mackey Arena, the teams’ only matchup of the season.

Illinois is also a victim of Kansas’ eight-game win streak, which dates back to Jan. 13 and includes wins over No. 1 Arizona, No. 2 Iowa State, No. 13 BYU and No. 13 Texas Tech. The Jayhawks are a No. 2 seed in CBS Sports’ latest projection despite being unranked in the AP poll as recently as Jan. 12.

Illinois’ most likely seed is a No. 3 at 30.9 percent, according to TeamRankings.com, followed closely by a No. 2 seed at 24.5 percent. Back-to-back losses may have eliminated Illinois’ chances of securing a No. 1 seed, though. These projections say a No. 4 seed is more likely at 21.4 percent, compared to its chances of earning a No. 1 seed at 3.1 percent.

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NET rankings, KenPom still love the Illini

Illinois Fighting Illini guard Keaton Wagler (23) drives against Wisconsin Badgers guard Braedon Carrington (0) at State Farm Center. | Ron Johnson-Imagn Images
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Losses to Michigan State and Wisconsin may only be a blip on the radar for Illinois, whose metrics have been largely unaffected over the past five days.

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lllinois moved down just one spot from No. 4 to No. 5 in the NET rankings after Tuesday’s loss to Wisconsin. Houston moved ahead of the Illini as a result of recent double-digit wins over No. 13 BYU and Utah. The top three of Michigan, Arizona and Duke remains unchanged.

The NET rankings also show that seeding takes more than just the win-loss record into account. Illinois is still at No. 5 with five losses, ahead of teams like Gonzaga, Iowa State, UConn, Purdue, Michigan State and Nebraska – among others – who have fewer losses.

Part of that is because metrics like KenPom suggest Illinois is elite in a few areas. The Illini are No. 1 in adjusted offensive efficiency and No. 15 in strength of schedule, bolstering their resume as KenPom’s No. 6 team overall. If there’s one thing to be concerned about, though, it’s Illinois’ No. 31 adjusted defensive efficiency – the worst of any team in KenPom’s overall top 15.

What’s next?

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Illinois Fighting Illini forward Jake Davis (15) shoots against the Wisconsin Badgers at State Farm Center. | Ron Johnson-Imagn Images

Illinois hosts Indiana (17-8, 8-6) at 11 p.m. CT on Sunday at the State Farm Center in Champaign. The Hoosiers are No. 31 in the NET rankings, so as things stand, it would be a Quad 2 win for Illinois. But if the Hoosiers win a few more games and move into the top 30, it could eventually become a Quad 1 win and boost Illinois’ resume.

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Following Sunday’s game, Illinois travels to face USC (18-6, 7-6) on Wednesday and UCLA (17-7, 9-4) on Feb. 21, both of which would be Quad 1 wins on the road. If the Illini are able to win the next three, they may still have a shot at the Big Ten title when No. 2 Michigan (22-1, 12-1) comes to Champaign on Feb. 27.

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Illinois is one of four teams – along with Nebraska, Purdue and Michigan State – that has three conference losses. So with a strong finish, it should be able to jump back up to the No. 2 seed line despite the recent setback.



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Illinois GOP trails badly in midterm cash

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Illinois GOP trails badly in midterm cash


The Illinois Republican Party filed its quarterly campaign finance report on the July 15 deadline. The party reported having just $223K in the bank. The next day, the party sent a letter to the Illinois State Board of Elections saying they were “reconciling” their records after a leadership change, and then noted that their actual end balance was $101K higher than it had reported the day before.

But that bit of found money was basically the end of the “good news” for the GOP last week.

Republicans no longer have a pet billionaire. Bruce Rauner and Ken Griffin have fled the state. The legions of wealthy business titans who once contributed and raised money have either retired to sunnier climes or passed away. Several prominent party members have publicly shunned labor unions and their hefty political war chests, although the state GOP legislative leaders have at least tried to rebuild ties to trade unions and even the Illinois Education Association. But the heavily gerrymandered legislative map combined with the current political climate means they’ll mostly receive scraps.

And, yes, the House Democrats are struggling this month with scandals, including a state representative who resigned under pressure and another who was indicted. I’m not trying to downplay that at all. But Democrats have the national political environment, the local infrastructure and tons of cash behind them. The Republicans have little to none of that.

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The GOP’s gubernatorial candidate, Darren Bailey, raised $1.3 million in the second quarter, which ended June 30. That sounds like a lot, but he spent almost all of that on direct mail fundraising costs. The huge expenditures do give him a prospect list for future fundraising, but he ended the quarter with a mere $128K in the bank. That was still a whole lot more than the rest of the statewide ticket.

Attorney General nominee Bob Fioretti, a perennial candidate, raised $31K, spent $39K and had $28K on hand at the end of the quarter along with almost $15K in recent debt. Secretary of State candidate Diane Harris raised $6K, spent a bit over $4K and had a paltry $1,816.42 in the bank. Treasurer candidate Max Solomon, who ran as a write-in during the primary because the party failed to recruit anyone, raised less than $3K, reported no spending and ended the quarter with less than $8K. Comptroller candidate Bryan Drew raised $30K and received $47K in in-kind contributions from a company owned, ironically, by independent gubernatorial candidate Collin Corbett, spent less than $3K, ended with $54K and had $25K in debt from earlier this year.

Man, that’s just downright pathetic.

But I suppose it doesn’t really matter anyway unless we see a massive sea-change in national opinion in the coming months or the federal government finds a way to not certify certain election results. Regardless of where individual candidates are at this moment, they’ll have the money to compete. Unlike the Republicans, the Dems do have a pet billionaire (JB Pritzker) and, I assume eventually for most of them, organized labor.

The Republican legislative leaders have tried to scrape and claw as much as they can, but they’re vastly outgunned. Senate Republican Leader John Curran raised just $75K in the second quarter. He spent $71K and reported having a bit more than $3 million in the bank. His caucus committee reported having $160K in the bank.

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Leader Curran has three Republican-held districts to defend in the Chicago media market that have all trended Democratic in the last three cycles. Depending how bad things get, he could be defending a couple, two or three more.

The Senate Democrats have a ton of money to do whatever they want. Senate President Don Harmon has about $20 million in his personal campaign account and $1.7 million in his caucus account.

Over in the House, Republican Leader Tony McCombie has at least four Democratic-trending or swingy districts to defend and just $1.3 million in her personal campaign account and another $363K in her caucus account so far.

In contrast, House Speaker Chris Welch had $11.4 million in his personal account and $1.2 million in his caucus account. Like Senate President Harmon, he has more than enough money already, but more is never enough when there’s so much out there, so those numbers will likely rise by November.

Rich Miller also publishes Capitol Fax, a daily political newsletter, and CapitolFax.com.

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Hillsboro grad, Springfield golfer Alex Eickhoff 2nd at state amateur

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Hillsboro grad, Springfield golfer Alex Eickhoff 2nd at state amateur


BLOOMINGTON — Springfield’s Alex Eickhoff nearly had a magical Thursday as he tied for second place in the 95th annual Illinois State Amateur Championship at Crestwicke Country Club.  

Eickhoff, a 2020 Hillsboro High School graduate and former standout on the Southern Illinois University Edwardsville’s men’s golf team, shot a 4-under-par 68 in Thursday’s third round and followed that with an even-par 71 to finish the three-day, four-round event 1-over 285. He tied for second with Bloomington’s Logan Stauffer.  

Eickhoff briefly took the lead through nine holes of his fourth round when he sat at 1-under par. Chicago’s Charlie Kulwin finished both of Thursday’s rounds under par and finished 2-under 282. He was the lone golfer to finish under par for the tournament.

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Eickhoff was The State Journal-Register’s Small School Boys Golfer of the year twice in his high school career: once as a freshman in 2016-17 and again as a senior in 2019-20. After high school, he golfed for the University of Minnesota for two years before transferring to SIUE.  

He began the tournament with a 3-over 74 on Tuesday and shaved off a stroke Wednesday with a 2-over 73. He closed out the event with an even-par 71 in Thursday’s final round.

Other area golfers who made the cut were Springfield’s Charles Hoogland (7-over 291, tied for 20th) and Jacksonville’s Brady Kaufmann (8-over 292, 25th). 

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The last golfer from The State Journal-Register’s coverage area to win the Illinois State Amateur was Jay Davis. Davis, a Jacksonville Routt graduate, won the 1991 and ‘92 tournaments. 

Contact Ryan Mahan: 788-1546, ryan.mahan@sj-r.com, Twitter.com/RyanMahanSJR.





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Illinois awards AD Josh Whitman a new contract worth more than $31 million over the next 10 years

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Illinois awards AD Josh Whitman a new contract worth more than  million over the next 10 years


CHAMPAIGN, Ill. — Illinois has extended athletic director Josh Whitman’s contract through 2036, committing more than $31 million over the next 10 years on the heels of a series of standout seasons for the department and its teams.

The university’s board of trustees approved the new deal for Whitman at its regular meeting on Thursday. The fifth-longest tenured AD among the four power conferences will make $2.15 million during the 2026-27 school year, a salary increase of more than 40%.

Whitman is scheduled to receive $100,000 raises annually before a $200,000 bump to $3.15 million in the final year of the agreement and a $500,000 retention bonus each June 30 that he remains on the job at Illinois.

The contract also includes additional incentives of up to $500,000 annually related to performance goals set by the university chancellor and three automatic one-year extensions through 2039 if certain Illini football and men’s basketball performance measures are met.

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Whitman, a former Illinois football player, was hired in 2016. This was the fifth time his contract has been amended. The men’s basketball team reached the NCAA Final Four in April for the first time in 21 years. The football team won 19 games over the last two seasons, a program record for that span. Illini athletics also set a revenue record for a fourth consecutive year and topped $200 million for the first time in 2025-26, according to the board of trustees meeting memo.



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