When coaches prepare for a game, they identify key matchups, both pro and con, and they gameplan how to shore up where there are vulnerabilities while attacking where there is strength. There are infinite ways to make adjustments, but the key matchups—if identified correctly—will always be what drives the gameplan. In my opinion, these are the matchups that will matter most on Friday night against Illinois:

1. Illinois’ defensive line versus fatigue

Illinois has a good defense, and the whole team has taken on head coach Bielema’s tough physical style. The defense is fundamentally sound, meaning that they tackle well, and they rarely are out of position for making plays. They also have solid talent spread throughout, but their numbers are thin in places. The defense’s greatest weakness is its lack of depth in the defensive line. The entire starting lineup from 2023 is gone. Bielema used the transfer portal to bring in a few key players. The starters are solid players, but … “fatigue makes cowards of us all.”

It is even more significant that they lack depth in the D-line because Illinois runs a 3-4 defense, which means that the 3 D-linemen who are playing are generally taking on double-teams throughout the game. The defensive philosophy is based around the front 3 eating up all of the blockers so that the linebackers and safeties are free to roam and make tackles. TeRah Edwards (#23, Sr., NG, 6’2”, 305 lb.) is the only one of the starters who fits the profile of a double-team eater as Alex Bray (#11, Soph., DE, 6’4”, 270 lb.) and Dennis Briggs, Jr. (#6, Sr., DE, 6’4”, 275 lb.) are built more for an attacking style of defensive lineman than for taking on double-teams Briggs is the only one who currently has more than 10 tackles (14, 7 solo, 1 sack). The top backup is Jeremiah Warren (#55, R-Soph., NG, 6’3”, 305 lb.), who has 3 tackles on the season. Almost all of the rest of the D-linemen on the roster are freshmen and redshirt-freshmen, and none of them have more than 1 tackle.

If Nebraska can wear out the Illini D-linemen, everything else opens up offensively. There are lots of different strategies to try to do this, so it’s hard to predict exactly what Marcus Satterfield and the rest of the Huskers’ offensive staff will plan to do, but here are some options:

A.    Use a tempo offense = This might be the week where the offense decides to use tempo more as that will simultaneously wear down the D-linemen more quickly while also forcing the defense to line up quickly and play without having the time to do complicated pre-snap and post-snap shifts of the defense. (More on that in #2 below.) Rhule and Satterfield have been more likely to run a slow-tempo offense in the past because it took pressure off of Nebraska’s defense, plus we didn’t have much of a passing game in 2023 anyway. That’s changed now. Raiola has shown himself to be quite adept at running the 2-minute offense, which is very similar to running a fast-tempo offense. With the now-available use of helmet communications, Satterfield can send in the formation without a huddle, and he can talk to Raiola at the line-of-scrimmage to audible as needed. As long as Nebraska is lining up quickly and at least occasionally running the play immediately, it takes away the ability for the defensive coordinator to do a lot of shifts or to otherwise mask the defense.

B.    Run the ball early and often = defending the run wears out a defense because it is much easier for larger offensive linemen to line up and push smaller defenders than it is for those defenders to read and react and pursue after trying to get off of those blocks. Coach Rhule wants to establish a running game anyway, so this is a perfect fit. Kansas had a lot of success running the ball against Illinois, but they kept turning the ball over, which gave Illinois new life. A tempo offense is probably most effective when combined with a heavy rushing attack because together they wear out a defense faster than any other option.

C.    Use lots of screen passes and Outside Zone running plays = Forcing defenders to move laterally wears them down even more, so we might run more quick screens to the outside or tunnel screens in the alleys that target the area just downfield from the D-linemen, which forces them to disengage from the OL, turn around and pursue downfield. Running plays that attack the outside, such as the Outside Zone or “Stretch” plays cause defenders to have to fight through blocks and run laterally, often into more blockers. Again, this is more work for the D-linemen than for the O-linemen as the O-linemen know where they’re going before the ball is snapped, while the D-linemen have to read and react, and then they have to pursue under control. Otherwise open up cutback lanes if they over-pursue.

Long, grinding drives are the key to wearing down the Illini defense, especially the big boys up front. If Nebraska can have some offensive success early—and especially if they can do so with a faster tempo and a punishing running game—it should pay greater dividends later in the game.

2. Dylan Raiola (Neb. QB) versus Aaron Henry (Ill. Defensive Coordinator)

When Bielema took over at Illinois in 2021, there were some very talented players on the roster who had been brought in by the previous staff under Lovie Smith. Bielema is a good teacher and motivator, and so he turned things around much more quickly than most observers would have anticipated. The 2022 team was a couple of controversial calls away from playing for the Big Ten championship, and their defense was their strength. That defensive coordinator, Ryan Walters, was hired by Purdue to be head coach as a result of that success. Aaron Henry took over in 2023, and there were lots of growing pains on the defensive side of the ball. Some of it was coaching and schematic, but it is also yet to be determined if Bielema will be able to consistently recruit the caliber of players that Illinois will need to be a more consistent winner in the Big Ten.

While Walters preferred man-to-man coverage almost exclusively, Henry has shifted to using a mix of zone coverages. In fairness, there was a lot more talent on the 2022 defense than what was left for 2023, so Henry’s defense likely was not able to run the straight-man coverages necessary. Bielema and staff have used the transfer portal to shore up some of the weaker areas, so this year’s defense is much improved. The secondary has become a strength of the defense. Illinois still uses a lot of man-to-man concepts, but Henry likes to mix in a lot of pre- and post-snap shifts to disguise when the secondary has shifted to zone coverage. This might be because they don’t have the talented cornerbacks to run straight man-coverage like they did in ’22, but regardless it is working, and it is leading to lots of turnovers that are being created by opposing quarterbacks struggling to understand the defense that they are seeing.

You may have heard that Nebraska’s starting quarterback, Dylan Raiola, is a true freshman. Normally, defensive-minded coaches like Bielema would be salivating at the idea of blitzing the heck out of a young and inexperienced quarterback, especially when the defense has already been using lots of shifts and masks on the backside to disguise coverages. What might be unique, though, is that Raiola seems to be lightyears ahead of where even older and more experienced QBs would be as far as reading defenses pre-snap and recognizing shifts in coverage. I’d be shocked if Henry doesn’t test him early, especially in any obvious passing situations. If Raiola misreads what the defense is doing, it leads to turnovers, which is something that Illinois has become very adept at creating. Is Raiola as cerebral and mature as advertised? We will find out on Friday night. If he is, it should lead to some big-play opportunities, especially deep-ball shots like Neyor’s first touchdown against UTEP or any of the many deep balls thrown to Jaylen Lloyd in the first three games. These will be feast-or-famine situations, and Raiola needs to hit more big-play touchdown passes than interceptions from misread coverages, but he’s likely to throw at least one of each on Friday.

A second arena of battle between Raiola and Henry will be in the area of RPOs (Run-Pass Options) and the quarterback-run game. Raiola is much more of a prototypical pocket passer than a dual-threat quarterback, but he is athletic enough to run on occasion. When Nebraska uses RPOs—and especially if we use any Zone Reads—Raiola needs to be a viable threat to run the ball. Rhule and Satterfield are not going to want to expose him to any unnecessary hits, but the threat of his running will tie up one defender in the box on every running play. If he’s not a threat to run effectively, the defense basically gains a man in the box. Look for Raiola to keep the ball on a Zone Read or RPO early in the game and pick up some easy yards so as to force Henry to account for him in his defense’s run-fits.

3. Nebraska’s receivers versus Illinois LBs and DBs

If Nebraska struggles to run the ball early against Illinois, it will most likely be because Illinois is loading the box on defense to stop the run. Illinois’ base defense is a 3-4 Tite front, which means 3 interior D-linemen lined up even with and/or inside of the offensive tackles. The outside linebackers are rolled up tight to the line-of-scrimmage, usually in a 2-point stance just outside of the outside shoulder of the tight-end or offensive tackle on his side. The 2 inside linebackers will be 5 yards off of the line-of-scrimmage at the snap, and they’ll usually be lined up inside of the offensive tackles if Nebraska is using 21 Personnel (2 RBs+1 TE)  or 12 Personnel (1 RB + 2 TEs). Their CBs will be locked up in 1-on-1 coverage of the Nebraska WRs if they are split wide. The Safeties can play deep or shallow as needed. Against Kansas they typically had a Free-Safety lined up in the middle of the field, 15 yards off the ball, and a Strong-Safety lined up at ILB depth on the strong side of the offensive formation. Here’s a simple sketch of a 3-4 Tite defensive alignment against 21 Personnel with a QB under Center and the RBs in an I-formation backfield:

The 3 triangles represent the 3 defensive linemen. The goal of this defense is to plug up the 4 inside gaps between the offensive tackles with these 3 D-linemen. If there are WRs split wide to either side, the cornerbacks will usually cover them tight at the line-of-scrimmage, and they will often be in 1-on-1 coverage. For Nebraska, this means that Isaiah Neyor and Jahmal Banks will often be 1-on-1 with the Illini CBs. Since a single Free-Safety can’t cover both sides of the field, Illinois will have to either drop the Strong-Safety back from his shallow position to give help deep on one side (so the Free-Safety can help deep on the other side), or else the Free-Safety is left alone like a centerfielder trying to read the eyes of the QB to figure out where to go.

Rhule stressed in this week’s press conference that Raiola needed to take deep shots like the one that was intercepted by the Northern Iowa defensive back in order to take an extra man away from the box. I’m certain that he was thinking about this defensive concept from Illinois when he said that. If Nebraska’s WRs can’t beat the Illinois CBs in 1-on-1 matchups on the outside, Illinois will be able to load up the box against the run with 8 defenders (3 DL, 4 LBs, 1 SS). Unless Raiola is enough of a threat to run the ball that they have to cover him with a defender, Illinois will have an 8 to 7 advantage in the box. Here’s how Nebraska can attack this:

A.    Deep passes to the outside WRs = Rhule brought in Neyor and Banks to make plays in this exact situation. If they’re 1-on-1 on the outside, Raiola needs to be able to throw up a deep ball with a better than 50-50 chance that they make a play and come down with it.

B.    Seam routes and intermediate passes to the TE = Because their OLBs play so tight to the line-of-scrimmage, there is more pressure to both stop the run and cover the TE on the side where he lines up, which can be either the Will (weakside ILB) or Strong-Safety. Since the TE will often be running at that defender to block him on running plays, he needs to be able to slide past him for easy completions when they fake the run and want to throw for intermediate yardage. If it’s man coverage, the TE will often run a seam route that keeps going past the shallow defender. If it’s zone, he’ll clear the LBs before coming back into whatever pocket of the zone is best. If Raiola can properly identify the defense, the TE can chew it up.

C.    Swing passes to RB in the shallow flats = With the CBs and Safeties backing up to cover A & B, additional stress can be placed on the defense by forcing the LBs to both stop the RB running inside while the other RB or H-Back runs a quick route into the shallow flat. Depending which way Nebraska chooses to run it, they can match up their faster RB (Rahmir Johnson or Emmett Johnson) with the slowest Illinois OLB.

If the offensive linemen are doing their job, offensive success will come down to Nebraska’s skill players making plays that beat the Illinois defender who is assigned to cover him. Satterfield and Raiola can choose the best mismatches, but the players still have to make the plays.

4. Luke Altmyer (Ill. QB) versus Tony White (Neb. Defensive Coordinator)

In much the same way as matchup #2 above pits the Nebraska QB against the Illinois Defensive Coordinator, the Illinois QB will be battling it out mentally with Nebraska’s Defensive Coordinator. Altmyer is a returning starter at QB. He is athletic and has a good arm, but he has a history of being very streaky. So far this year he has yet to throw an interception, but he struggled with that at times last year. Tony White’s defense will be by far the best defense that he’s seen this season. Not only are Nebraska’s personnel better, White is a master at disguising his coverages and mixing in blitzes from unexpected places.

In the Monday press conference Rhule mentioned that he and Bielema are building mirror images of each other’s programs, and that’s especially easy to see when you look at their offensive philosophies. Both want to establish the running game but be able to pass when they want to pass. Both want big-bodied receivers on the outside who can beat man-coverage and get open as a deep threat on 50-50 balls. Other than Nebraska’s advantage of depth across the defensive line positions, much of the advantage in the game will come down to which team’s QB is better at decoding the other team’s defense AND executing the plays needed to beat it. Last year, Altmyer struggled at times, finishing the year with 10 interceptions versus 13 touchdowns. So far this year, he has avoided repeating that as he has 6 TDs and no INTs. Illinois beat Kansas in large part because Altmyer took care of the football. Can Nebraska force some turnovers on Friday? An additional problem for White is that Altmyer is athletic, and he’s a good runner. He will often look to run. It should be more difficult against White’s defense than against those who run more man-to-man because White’s scheme is set up so that there are almost always lots of defenders whose eyes are on the QB.

5. Illinois receivers versus Nebraska LBs and DBs

Are you seeing a pattern yet? Illinois’ base offense features a big-bodied WR spread to either side of the field with some version of 22 Personnel or 13 Personnel so that the net effect is that a very large, strong RB will be getting the ball and running behind 7 blockers. With the athletic Altmyer as a running threat, he also needs to be accounted for. Any time the defense loads up the box to stop the run, it means that they have to leave those WRs in 1-on-1 coverage on the outside. When Altmyer sees that, he takes deep shots, and their WRs are expected to do exactly what I said we want Neyor and Banks to do for us: go up and catch deep balls at a much higher than 50-50 rate.

There has been a strong tendency to move towards taller cornerbacks over the past decade. This is true at every level, but it’s noticeably more of an emphasis now in the Big Ten and the SEC, which are the two conferences that produce the most NFL cornerbacks. Why the emphasis on the extra height? Because more height equals longer arms, too, and the extra height and arm-length equals a much larger catch radius to go after deep 50-50 passes. Tommi Hill (6’) has a future in the NFL because he has that magical combination of length, speed, and change of direction that makes it very difficult for wide receivers to get past him and get open. So far this season, opposing teams have avoided throwing to his side. Don’t be surprised if Illinois challenges him more directly. Marques Buford (5’11”) will be tasked with locking down the WR on the other side. If both can do that with minimal assistance from the Safeties, it frees the Safeties to fill quicker on running plays. The best way to shut down the thought of passing your way is to do what Cam Taylor-Britt did on Sunday against the Chiefs: go up and make an interception that they won’t forget anytime soon. It’s safe to say that Patrick Mahomes will not be as quick to throw a deep ball in his direction when they meet again. So let it be with Nebraska’s current cornerbacks.

Nebraska needs to consistently beat teams from within its 500-mile radius, such as Illinois, Iowa, Wisconsin, and Minnesota in order to ensure a recruiting advantage when we go after the same players in the upper Midwest region. Bielema is a good coach, but he has struggled to attract the quality and quantity of high school recruits that he had expected. Nebraska needs to slam shut that door of hope by taking care of business in Lincoln on Friday night. Consistently beating Illinois will help unlock some of the recruits in the St. Louis metro area. Nebraska needs to dominate its 500-mile radius if it hopes to ever again be consistently viewed as a power on the national scene. Let’s hope that we start that process on Friday night.

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