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FPI Predicts Every Illinois Fighting Illini Football Game In 2024

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FPI Predicts Every Illinois Fighting Illini Football Game In 2024


The Illinois football season is 15 days away, as the team gears up for its 100th season at Memorial Stadium. The Illini are coming off a 5-7 record last year, with several close losses, including a bowl-eliminating defeat to in-state rival Northwestern in Week 12.

ESPN released its FPI projections for every Illinois football game in 2024. Given that college football is an unpredictable sport, the projections don’t exactly predict how the Illini will finish.

BetMGM sees Illinois’ over/under win total at 5.5 wins, which is on the fringe of a bowl berth. If Illinois were to qualify for a bowl game, it would be its first appearance since Jan. 2023.

FPI Prediction: Illinois has a 97.8% chance to win.

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Illinois opens the season with a nonconference matchup against Eastern Illinois, its first of three straight home games to begin the season. Despite Eastern Illinois finishing 8-3, it never faced a ranked FBS or notable opponent, whereas Illinois played the best of the best in the Big Ten. Barring anything catastrophic, the ESPN FPI sees a near-guaranteed win for Illinois and to begin 1-0.

FPI Prediction: Illinois has a 30.2% to win.

Illinois will see a tougher matchup for its Week 2 rematch with the Kansas Jayhawks from 2023. This was Illinois’ first FBS loss a year ago and ESPN expects a similar story here. Kansas finished 9-4 after a 5-1 start, hanging on to beat Illinois 34-23. The FPI doesn’t give the Illini the greatest of margains, coming in at 30.2%. If ESPN’s projections hold true, Illinois will enter its homecoming game 1-1.

FPI Prediction: Illinois has a 79.1% chance to win

Another winnable game ends Illinois’s three-game homestand against Central Michigan. While Illinois has been prone to home upset losses (including a 2019 last-minute defeat to Eastern Michigan), ESPN gives Illinois nearly an 80% chance to win, putting Illinois’ record at 2-1 entering Big Ten competition.

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FPI Prediction: ESPN does not have one for this game

Illinois and Nebraska meet for the fourth time in the last six years, but this time, the game is in Lincoln, Nebraska. Illinois lost to the Cornhuskers 20-7 last year, where the Illini struggled to move the ball and never led during the entire game. ESPN likely sees the game as a coin flip, given that Matt Rhule was on the doorstep of the best season in recent Cornhuskers history. It’s Illinois Big Ten opener and the first of back-to-back Big Ten road games.

FPI Prediction: Illinois has an 8.3% chance to win

Illinois lost to Penn State last year, as the Nittany Lions exacted revenge from an nine-overtime thriller two years prior. Penn State is one of the perennial favorites to contend for a College Football Playoff berth, making the Illini’s second Happy Valley trip under Bret Bielema a potentially taller order than its previous meeting.

FPI Prediction: Illinois has a 58% chance to win

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Illinois attempts to reclaim the Cannon Trophy when it welcomes Purdue and Ryan Walters into Champaign for a mid-October tilt. It is Walters’ first trip to Champaign in two seasons, where he once served as the team’s defensive coordinator. The Illini will likely need a win here to stay in bowl contention, as it was trounced in West Lafayette 44-19 last year, Illinois’ first road conference game of the season. Illinois has been given a 58% chance to win, as Purdue is still in rebuild mode entering Walters’ second year.

FPI Prediction: Illinois has a 20.4% chance to win

The defending national champion Michigan Wolverines come to Champaign in an attempt to spoil Illinois’ Memorial Stadium Rededication celebration, honoring its 100-year history. By this point in the season, the Wolverines will likely be unbeaten or have one loss, needing to stay in the thick of the College Football Playoff discussion. Given the tall task, ESPN isn’t a fan of the Illini’s chances, chalking it up as a potential loss at a 20.4% win probability, similar to their encounters with the Wolverines in 2022 in Ann Arbor and 2019, which was also in Champaign.

FPI Prediction: Illinois has a 5.5% chance to win

The most challenging game on Illinois’ schedule comes in late-October when it travels cross country for the first time in the new 18-team Big Ten to Eugene, Oregon. The Ducks are another potential Big Ten powerrhouse who will likely be fighting for their Big Ten and CFP title possibilities by that point in the season. ESPN projects this game to be a near-miracle potential upset for Illinois, giving it a 5% chance to win based on the FPI Power Index.

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FPI Prediction: Illinois has a 54% chance to win

The Illini get Minnesota on Dad’s Weekend for the first time in five years, as this is a team Illinois has gotten the better of in the last several years. Illinois won a thriller in Minneapolis in 2023 thanks to a late John Paddock touchdown pass near the end of regulation, putting a dent in the Golden Gophers’ Big Ten West title hopes. Despite high expectations nearly every year under P.J. Fleck, the Gophers seem to fizzle out once the calendar turns to November, which is arguably why ESPN likes Illinois to earn another home win.

FPI Prediction: Illinois has a 60.4% chance to win

Unlike its neighbors, Michigan State might actually be an easier matchup for Illinois, given that ESPN’s FPI heavily favors the Illini at 60.4%. The Spartans are under an entirely new regime in the aftermath of coach Mel Tucker’s firing and will likely be playing for pride and poise this late in the season. The Spartans did upset Illinois in 2022, effectively ending its near stranglehold on the Big Ten West with just a few games remaining, but both of these teams are in much different places. Not to mention, it’s Senior Day for Illinois, potentially adding extra motivation for the team.

FPI Prediction: Illinois has a 33% chance to win.

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Simply put, Rutgers is a better team on paper, hence ESPN’s lower chances for Illinois at 33%. But, Bielema has been prone to pulling off road upsets before, including a last-second win at Maryland in mid-October a season ago.

FPI Prediction: Illinois has a 44.2% chance to win

The Illini are seeking their first win over the Wildcats in two seasons. The game is not a true road game for Illinois because the game will be taking place in a neutral site, the home of the Chicago Cubs, Wrigley Field. Both fanbases will likely appear in droves, as bowl implications could be at stake. Although Northwestern is projected to win, per ESPN, it’s close quarters, with the Illini coming in with a 44.2% chance of bringing home the Land of Lincoln Trophy again.

Illinois is seeking its second winning season under Bielema, as it finished 8-5 in 2022-2023, losing to Mississippi State in the ReliaQuest Bowl.

Zain Bando is a contributor to Illinois Fighting Illini On SI. He can be reached at zainbando99@gmail.com or follow him on X @zainbando99

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I’m grateful for Illinois legalizing physician-assisted suicide | Letter

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I’m grateful for Illinois legalizing physician-assisted suicide | Letter


When I became disabled due to a traumatic injury at 17, the first thing I felt was a tremendous loss of control over my life. I’ve worked since then to regain and retain it.

It’s why I embrace the fundamental principle of the independent living movement and the disability rights and justice movement – that all of us have and deserve the right to self-determination and to make our own decisions, including decisions about the services and care we receive.

That is why I am grateful to Gov. Pritzker and the Illinois General Assembly for passing a new law that legalizes Medical Aid in Dying (SB 1950), the End of Life Options Act.

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Death elicits fear. It certainly represents the ultimate loss of control. We all hope that it will be peaceful and without great suffering.

For many of us who have experienced marginalization because of disability or age, poverty, race, and other socially imposed constructs, we fear being devalued or dismissed in decision-making in systems, including in chronic or acute health care situations. This law relates specifically to terminal illness, not chronic or acute care. And disability should not be conflated with terminal illness.

The ability to control the decision-making process in the End of Life Options Act is detailed and robust. It’s a high bar to be eligible to participate.

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It requires you to be able to be fully in control of the decision-making process and of the administration of medication, only when you have a prognosis of less than six months or less to live. It requires consultation with at least two different medical professionals. It has strong provisions that prevent anyone from assisting or exerting undue influence, including any person to whom you might have already given health care power of attorney.

Medical aid in dying is a trusted and time-tested medical practice that is part of the full spectrum of end-of-life care options, including hospice and palliative care. People move across the country to access it. Those with terminal illness who are unable to relocate because of disability or income need the equity that comes from being able to access options where we live.

As someone who has learned to never take it for granted, I want this right to self-determination to extend through the final days of my life if I should face a terminal illness.

I am grateful that Illinois has joined the many other states who support this additional end of life care option for all who are facing terminal illness.

Beth Langen,Springfield

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Power drip: Electricity shortages coming to Illinois

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Power drip: Electricity shortages coming to Illinois


A recent study published by three state agencies warns electricity shortages are coming to Illinois.

The shortages will start in PJM Interconnection’s regional transmission system by 2029, with the shortage hitting Illinois’ ComEd territory (which is within PJM) beginning in 2030, and then kicks in hard by 2032.

Capacity shortages in downstate Ameren’s territory are expected to begin in 2031 and escalate through 2035, when the stuff hits the fan. Ameren is in the Midcontinent Independent System Operator’s, or MISO’s, regional transmission network.

The report acknowledges that some fossil fuel power plants might have to remain open at least in the short-term, despite the state’s ambitious climate goals. A bill passed the legislature in October to facilitate that.

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The Illinois Power Agency, the Illinois Environmental Protection Agency and the Illinois Commerce Commission conducted the study.

Massive increases in power needs by data centers are the “primary driver” of increased electricity demand, according to the report. Those gigantic increases were not foreseen when the state designed its landmark clean energy law in 2021 requiring net-zero carbon energy by 2045.

Coal and gas plants “are planned to retire across both [PJM and MISO] due to age, economics and emissions limits,” the new report points out, and that’s also contributing to the coming shortage.

Also problematic is the fact that new gas plant equipment takes 5-7 years to purchase and install, and the plants face additional siting and permitting barriers. Wind and solar face serious obstacles as well..

All that results in this warning from the three state agencies: “These conditions create a credible risk of regional capacity shortfalls that will impact Illinois’ future ability to import power during critical hours and may cause reliability issues in Illinois even if Illinois market zones have enough capacity to meet their [resource adequacy] requirements as determined by [PJM and MISO].”

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Translation: Even if Illinois produces more power, we still might be in big trouble because other states are facing similar problems.

In the ComEd region alone, projected load growth “drives a 24% increase in resource adequacy requirements between 2025 and 2030, which contributes to growing dependence on external capacity even before the onset of an outright shortfall in 2032.”

However, the report claims, “The state can successfully navigate both near-term reliability risks and longer-term decarbonization goals through a diversified resource strategy.” That strategy includes “the continued use” of fossil fuel plants “even as their energy output declines with higher renewable penetration.”

Another study will be published in 2027. The report said that study will likely include increased renewables and battery storage but will also look at “delays and/or reductions” to emissions requirements allowed by the Clean and Reliable Grid Affordability Act, which passed in October.

That’s cutting it awful close. Some business groups, including the Illinois Manufacturers’ Association, want the state to act immediately to keep existing fossil fuel plants open.

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Forty years ago, Illinois had some of the highest electric utility rates in the Midwest. Then, after the state deregulated the industry, our costs became far more competitive and the state used those low rates to lure new businesses.

But then abundant supply (encouraged by deregulation) pushed rates to a point where some nuclear power plant owners couldn’t afford to operate, so Illinois had to force consumers to subsidize the plants.

Then, with the gigantic data center and resulting artificial intelligence booms, along with aging plants going offline, electricity started becoming scarce again and rates have gone up.

Unilaterally cutting off data center expansion here won’t work because the state is part of those two large regional power distribution networks. They’ll just cross the state lines and continue consuming our juice.

Maybe the AI bubble will burst. But what is clear is that Illinois laws have to be flexible enough to deal with the unexpected, and that obviously hasn’t been the case

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Yes, coal plants were closing anyway because they aren’t cost competitive. Same with some gas plants. But government operates so slowly that few have confidence it can turn the ship around in time to avert a coming shortage.

Everyone is pointing to the recently passed Clean and Reliable Grid Affordability Act as a possible solution because it gives the state more pollution control flexibility, but even that may not be adequate if there’s not enough will at the top to make extra sure we don’t enter a crisis stage.

The governor has expressed confidence that the state can handle this. But businesspeople are rightly freaking out.

Climate change is real. But if the lights don’t go on, or the local factories close, nobody will care about excuses. They’ll just want it fixed.

Rich Miller also publishes Capitol Fax, a daily political newsletter, and CapitolFax.com.

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Shooting investigation shuts down I-270 in Illinois Thursday

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Shooting investigation shuts down I-270 in Illinois Thursday


MADISON COUNTY, Ill. — A shooting investigation shut down a stretch of Interstate 270 in Madison County during the evening rush-hour Thursday. No one was injured, Illinois State Police said.

Troopers from ISP Troop 8 responded around 5:23 p.m. to I-270 eastbound at milepost 8 near Edwardsville after a call of shots fired on the expressway.

The eastbound lanes of I-270 were closed at mile marker 8. Police said the investigation is in its early stages. More details will be posted here as they come into the FOX 2 newsroom.

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