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FPI Predicts Every Illinois Fighting Illini Football Game In 2024

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FPI Predicts Every Illinois Fighting Illini Football Game In 2024


The Illinois football season is 15 days away, as the team gears up for its 100th season at Memorial Stadium. The Illini are coming off a 5-7 record last year, with several close losses, including a bowl-eliminating defeat to in-state rival Northwestern in Week 12.

ESPN released its FPI projections for every Illinois football game in 2024. Given that college football is an unpredictable sport, the projections don’t exactly predict how the Illini will finish.

BetMGM sees Illinois’ over/under win total at 5.5 wins, which is on the fringe of a bowl berth. If Illinois were to qualify for a bowl game, it would be its first appearance since Jan. 2023.

FPI Prediction: Illinois has a 97.8% chance to win.

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Illinois opens the season with a nonconference matchup against Eastern Illinois, its first of three straight home games to begin the season. Despite Eastern Illinois finishing 8-3, it never faced a ranked FBS or notable opponent, whereas Illinois played the best of the best in the Big Ten. Barring anything catastrophic, the ESPN FPI sees a near-guaranteed win for Illinois and to begin 1-0.

FPI Prediction: Illinois has a 30.2% to win.

Illinois will see a tougher matchup for its Week 2 rematch with the Kansas Jayhawks from 2023. This was Illinois’ first FBS loss a year ago and ESPN expects a similar story here. Kansas finished 9-4 after a 5-1 start, hanging on to beat Illinois 34-23. The FPI doesn’t give the Illini the greatest of margains, coming in at 30.2%. If ESPN’s projections hold true, Illinois will enter its homecoming game 1-1.

FPI Prediction: Illinois has a 79.1% chance to win

Another winnable game ends Illinois’s three-game homestand against Central Michigan. While Illinois has been prone to home upset losses (including a 2019 last-minute defeat to Eastern Michigan), ESPN gives Illinois nearly an 80% chance to win, putting Illinois’ record at 2-1 entering Big Ten competition.

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FPI Prediction: ESPN does not have one for this game

Illinois and Nebraska meet for the fourth time in the last six years, but this time, the game is in Lincoln, Nebraska. Illinois lost to the Cornhuskers 20-7 last year, where the Illini struggled to move the ball and never led during the entire game. ESPN likely sees the game as a coin flip, given that Matt Rhule was on the doorstep of the best season in recent Cornhuskers history. It’s Illinois Big Ten opener and the first of back-to-back Big Ten road games.

FPI Prediction: Illinois has an 8.3% chance to win

Illinois lost to Penn State last year, as the Nittany Lions exacted revenge from an nine-overtime thriller two years prior. Penn State is one of the perennial favorites to contend for a College Football Playoff berth, making the Illini’s second Happy Valley trip under Bret Bielema a potentially taller order than its previous meeting.

FPI Prediction: Illinois has a 58% chance to win

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Illinois attempts to reclaim the Cannon Trophy when it welcomes Purdue and Ryan Walters into Champaign for a mid-October tilt. It is Walters’ first trip to Champaign in two seasons, where he once served as the team’s defensive coordinator. The Illini will likely need a win here to stay in bowl contention, as it was trounced in West Lafayette 44-19 last year, Illinois’ first road conference game of the season. Illinois has been given a 58% chance to win, as Purdue is still in rebuild mode entering Walters’ second year.

FPI Prediction: Illinois has a 20.4% chance to win

The defending national champion Michigan Wolverines come to Champaign in an attempt to spoil Illinois’ Memorial Stadium Rededication celebration, honoring its 100-year history. By this point in the season, the Wolverines will likely be unbeaten or have one loss, needing to stay in the thick of the College Football Playoff discussion. Given the tall task, ESPN isn’t a fan of the Illini’s chances, chalking it up as a potential loss at a 20.4% win probability, similar to their encounters with the Wolverines in 2022 in Ann Arbor and 2019, which was also in Champaign.

FPI Prediction: Illinois has a 5.5% chance to win

The most challenging game on Illinois’ schedule comes in late-October when it travels cross country for the first time in the new 18-team Big Ten to Eugene, Oregon. The Ducks are another potential Big Ten powerrhouse who will likely be fighting for their Big Ten and CFP title possibilities by that point in the season. ESPN projects this game to be a near-miracle potential upset for Illinois, giving it a 5% chance to win based on the FPI Power Index.

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FPI Prediction: Illinois has a 54% chance to win

The Illini get Minnesota on Dad’s Weekend for the first time in five years, as this is a team Illinois has gotten the better of in the last several years. Illinois won a thriller in Minneapolis in 2023 thanks to a late John Paddock touchdown pass near the end of regulation, putting a dent in the Golden Gophers’ Big Ten West title hopes. Despite high expectations nearly every year under P.J. Fleck, the Gophers seem to fizzle out once the calendar turns to November, which is arguably why ESPN likes Illinois to earn another home win.

FPI Prediction: Illinois has a 60.4% chance to win

Unlike its neighbors, Michigan State might actually be an easier matchup for Illinois, given that ESPN’s FPI heavily favors the Illini at 60.4%. The Spartans are under an entirely new regime in the aftermath of coach Mel Tucker’s firing and will likely be playing for pride and poise this late in the season. The Spartans did upset Illinois in 2022, effectively ending its near stranglehold on the Big Ten West with just a few games remaining, but both of these teams are in much different places. Not to mention, it’s Senior Day for Illinois, potentially adding extra motivation for the team.

FPI Prediction: Illinois has a 33% chance to win.

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Simply put, Rutgers is a better team on paper, hence ESPN’s lower chances for Illinois at 33%. But, Bielema has been prone to pulling off road upsets before, including a last-second win at Maryland in mid-October a season ago.

FPI Prediction: Illinois has a 44.2% chance to win

The Illini are seeking their first win over the Wildcats in two seasons. The game is not a true road game for Illinois because the game will be taking place in a neutral site, the home of the Chicago Cubs, Wrigley Field. Both fanbases will likely appear in droves, as bowl implications could be at stake. Although Northwestern is projected to win, per ESPN, it’s close quarters, with the Illini coming in with a 44.2% chance of bringing home the Land of Lincoln Trophy again.

Illinois is seeking its second winning season under Bielema, as it finished 8-5 in 2022-2023, losing to Mississippi State in the ReliaQuest Bowl.

Zain Bando is a contributor to Illinois Fighting Illini On SI. He can be reached at zainbando99@gmail.com or follow him on X @zainbando99

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Wisconsin man, woman killed in head-on Wadsworth crash involving semi ID’d: officials

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Wisconsin man, woman killed in head-on Wadsworth crash involving semi ID’d: officials


WADSWORTH, Ill. (WLS) — Two people who were killed in a head-on crash involving a semi in the north suburbs on Thursday morning have been identified, officials said on Friday.

The Lake County sheriff’s deputies and the Newport Township Fire Protection District responded to the Route 173 crash, which happened west of North Kilbourne Road in Wadsworth, around 7:50 a.m.

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Witnesses told investigators that the driver of a 2009 Acura sedan, which was traveling eastbound, appeared to be having difficulty staying in his lane and drifted into the path of a Freightliner semi-truck, which was heading westbound.

The two vehicles then collided head-on, officials said. A third vehicle was also hit.

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Chopper 7 was over the scene at 9 a.m., capturing the damage.

The sedan’s driver, a man, and a passenger, a woman, were pronounced dead on the scene.

The Lake County Coroner’s Office identified them as 51-year-old Kelly Wooten and 45-year-old Jacklyn Bradley of Stoughton, Wisconsin. Preliminary autopsy results indicate that both Wooten and Bradley died from blunt-force injuries.

The driver of the third vehicle, a 54-year-old Salem, Wisconsin woman, suffered non-life-threatening injuries.

The crash shut down Route 173 between Kilbourne Road and U.S. 41 in both directions.

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The Lake County Sheriff’s Office Technical Crash Investigations Team is investigating.

The video in the player above is from a previous report.

Copyright © 2026 WLS-TV. All Rights Reserved.



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AIPAC faces test of its power in Illinois primary as Democrats debate future of Israel relationship

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AIPAC faces test of its power in Illinois primary as Democrats debate future of Israel relationship


WASHINGTON — A crowded primary season in Illinois is shaping up as the next test for the American Israel Public Affairs Committee, a powerful advocacy organization that’s generating fresh turmoil over the Democratic Party’s relationship to Israel and the role of undisclosed campaign cash in this year’s midterm elections.

AIPAC, which was founded decades ago to lobby for U.S. support for Israel, has reserved at least $1.9 million in advertisements through its super PAC in the race to replace Rep. Danny Davis, a veteran politician who is retiring. The organization hopes to boost Melissa Conyears-Ervin, the city treasurer in Chicago, to victory over a dozen other candidates in the March 17 primary.

Other organizations that critics believe are tied to AIPAC are also spending heavily in Illinois, a source of bitterness and recriminations in a state already known for its bare knuckled brand of politics.

The aggressive spending comes after AIPAC put almost $2 million into a recent Democratic primary for a special election in New Jersey, an effort that’s widely considered to have backfired. AIPAC targeted Tom Malinowski, a former congressman who narrowly lost to progressive candidate Analilia Mejia — who has been outspoken in criticism of Israel.

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But AIPAC appears undaunted by the experience, despite an outpouring of criticism from across the political spectrum.

“We expect to be involved in dozens of races both in primaries and general elections this cycle,” said Patrick Dorton, a spokesman for AIPAC’s affiliated super PAC, the United Democracy Project, or UDP.

AIPAC has more urgently pursued its mission as Democratic skepticism and even hostility toward the U.S.-Israel relationship increases because of the war in Gaza, jeopardizing traditional bipartisan support for military assistance to a historic ally. But the group’s assertive interventions in this year’s primaries, which are expected to expand in the months to come, also risk further fracturing the party and eroding any remaining goodwill.

AIPAC has been dividing line in Illinois primary

Campaign finance laws involving super PACs make it nearly impossible to ascertain who is behind much of the money being spent in Illinois. Although UDP is open about its affiliation, recently created groups like Elect Chicago Women and Affordable Chicago Now haven’t yet been required to disclose the sources of their money.

Neither group is obligated to disclose its funding until after the Illinois’ primary. Critics suspect they’re conduits for AIPAC money, and AIPAC has declined to say whether there’s any connection.

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UDP, Elect Chicago Women and Affordable Chicago Now are three of the top four spenders on advertisements in House races so far, with almost $11 million total, and the majority going to Illinois. Financial numbers are drawn from AdImpact, a nonpartisan ad-tracking service.

None of the organizations mention Israel in their campaign messaging, a strategy that AIPAC-affiliated groups have used in the past as well.

For example, the United Democracy Project assailed Malinowski in New Jersey as sympathetic to President Donald Trump’s deportation efforts, undermining him with liberal voters. In Illinois, it is promoting Conyears-Ervin to replace Davis in the 7th congressional district by saying she will fight to lower costs and protect healthcare.

The strategy has contributed to speculation and angst about AIPAC’s influence in politics. Supporters of Israel accuse critics of using antisemitic tropes about dual loyalty, and others say the focus on AIPAC is misplaced.

“I think the folks who are talking the most about AIPAC are seeking to demonize Israel and create a break in the U.S.-Israel relationship,” said Rep. Brad Schneider, a Democrat who represents Illinois’ 10th district.

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“The problem is Citizens United and the decision to allow dark money,” said Schneider, the co-chair of the Congressional Jewish Caucus. “The problem is the rules. Let’s fix the rules.”

Candidates have been criticizing each other for their perceived willingness to accept help from AIPAC. Four progressive candidates vying for different Illinois congressional seats jointly condemned the organization’s role in the state’s primaries during a press conference in February. Another candidate is selling shirts on her website with anti-AIPAC messaging.

AIPAC has increased its campaign spending in recent years

Malinowski is still raw over his experience as AIPAC’s target in New Jersey, and he said that he won’t support any candidates backed by the organization this year. He described himself as pro-Israel even though he opposed unconditional assistance for the country, a stance that drew AIPAC’s ire.

“Obviously, we were going to talk about Israel and Gaza in the campaign because many voters would be asking questions about it,” Malinowski said. “But I wanted those discussions to be about the substance, not colored by baggage of endorsements from groups that are controversial now.”

AIPAC said in a statement that Mejia’s success in the primary was “an anticipated possibility,” suggesting they had no regrets that their role could have helped pave the way for a candidate who has described Israel’s actions in Gaza as genocide.

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Although AIPAC has always been politically active, it began spending directly on campaigns during the 2022 midterms.

Since then, it has spent more than $221 million through its traditional PAC and its super PAC, according to Federal Election Commission filings between December 2021 and January 2026.

The super PAC has mostly focused on Democratic primaries. In the 2022 and 2024 cycles, UDP spent at least $1 million supporting or opposing 18 candidates, 16 of whom were Democrats. Many of those candidates were running in open races.

Traditional PACs are allowed to raise and donate up to $5,000 per candidate per election, and may coordinate directly with campaigns. Super PACs don’t have fundraising or spending limits but are not allowed to make direct or in-kind contributions to candidates nor coordinate communications.

In 2024, UDP’s biggest investments were made in support of centrist challengers to progressive incumbents. It spent more than $13 million in the 2024 Democratic primary in New York’s 16th District, in which current Rep. George Latimer defeated former Rep. Jamaal Bowman. It also spent $8.5 million opposing former Rep. Cori Bush, who lost her primary to Rep. Wesley Bell.

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Chicago Bears property tax incentives advance in Illinois House over city opposition

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Chicago Bears property tax incentives advance in Illinois House over city opposition


A tax incentive plan aimed at keeping the Bears in Illinois advanced in the state House Thursday amid opposition from City Hall and questions about whether Democrats can whip up enough votes to pass it.

The legislation, introduced by state Rep. Kam Buckner (D-Chicago), would allow the NFL team to negotiate a freeze on property tax assessments with local taxing districts — in this case, Arlington Heights, Cook County and local school districts.

This marks the latest development in the high-stakes bidding war between Illinois and Indiana over which state can lay claim to one of the NFL’s most storied franchises as the team looks for the exits from its long-time lease at Soldier Field.

On a roll call opposed by Republicans, the Democratic-led House Revenue & Finance Committee voted 13-7 to back Buckner’s legislation and position it for a vote by the full House. But that didn’t happen after the committee vote because the House adjourned for the week without taking action on the measure.

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Following the committee’s action, Buckner said it’s time to start putting a legislative plan into motion, and the property tax concessions are essential for anything going forward.

“I don’t feel pressured by the Bears,” Buckner said. “What is important to me, though, is that we are able to put these tools in play. I do want the team to stay in Illinois. That’s very important to me.”

The bill that advanced Thursday deals only with the issue of property tax certainty and saving the Bears hundreds of millions of dollars by freezing property taxes on the Arlington International Racecourse site, and allowing the team to negotiate reduced “payments in lieu of property taxes with suburban school districts.”

Still to be determined is the massive infusion of infrastructure funding required to bankroll the road, sewer and utility work needed to ready the site for development.

Ahead of the vote, Buckner appeared on “The Fran Spielman Show” podcast and said the infrastructure wish list that started at $855 million has been whittled down to $734 million and said, “We’re still talking through it.”

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But Buckner told the Chicago Sun-Times that whatever the final number turns out to be, the Chicago legislative delegation will demand similar help to renovate and refresh Soldier Field and ease the transportation bottleneck that makes it difficult to get in and out of the Museum Campus.

“We’ve still got some things to work on, including Chicago and what happens with Chicago and a Chicago package,” he said.

Buckner, whose district includes Soldier Field, has long spoken out against the state cutting a blank check to finance a new Bears’ stadium, particularly given that roughly half a billion dollars in debt remains from the 2003 renovation of Soldier Field. Buckner said the Bears should pick up that tab.

The Chicago Park District has made an ask for $630 million for infrastructure and renovation of the Soldier Field — an appeal that a representative of the mayor’s office renewed today despite formally registering as an opponent to Buckner’s legislation.

Steven Mahr, Chicago’s acting chief financial officer, told the House panel the relocation of the Bears would have “devastating consequences on the city,” and he re-upped the city’s previous $630 million infrastructure request.

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“Some of those consequences are unknowable,” Mahr said. “It is clear that Chicago is the economic engine of the state of Illinois. Engines require fuel to run, otherwise engines stall and grind to a halt. The city is requesting a fair and equitable opportunity and a level playing field.”

Labor unions, business groups and several northwest suburbs, including Arlington Heights, voiced support for the legislation.

This is a developing story.



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