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The secret of ‘Blue Zones’ where people reach 100? Fake data, says academic

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The secret of ‘Blue Zones’ where people reach 100? Fake data, says academic

For a quarter-century, researchers and the general public have sought to understand why people in so-called “Blue Zones” live to 100 at far greater rates than anywhere else.

Saul Newman, a researcher at the University College London (UCL), believes he has the answer: actually, they don’t.

Despite being popularised in news articles, cookbooks and even a recent Netflix documentary series, the Blue Zones are really just a by-product of bad data, argues Newman, who has spent years debunking research about extremely elderly populations.

Rather than lifestyle factors such as diet or social connections, he says, the apparent longevity of people in five regions – Okinawa, Japan; Sardinia, Italy; Nicoya, Costa Rica; Ikaria, Greece; and Loma Linda, California – can be explained by pension fraud, clerical errors, and a lack of reliable birth and death records.

Dan Buettner, the American author and explorer credited with coining the term Blue Zone, did not respond to a request for comment.

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For his research into the claims around Blue Zones, Newman, a senior fellow at UCL’s Centre for Longitudinal Studies, analysed reams of demographic data, including United Nations mortality statistics for 236 jurisdictions gathered between 1970 and 2021.

The figures, he found, were simply not believable.

Some of the places reported to have the most centenarians included Kenya, Malawi, and the self-governing territory of Western Sahara, jurisdictions with overall life expectancies of just 64, 65, and 71, respectively.

Similar patterns cropped up in Western countries, with the London borough of Tower Hamlets, one of the most deprived areas in the UK, reported to have more people aged over 105 than anywhere else in the country.

“I tracked down 80 percent of the people in the world who are aged over 110 and found where they had been born, where they died, and analysed the population level patterns,” Newman told Al Jazeera.

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“It was absolutely striking because the more old age poverty means you get more 110-year-olds.”

A couple relax on a beach in Miyakojima, Okinawa, Japan [Carl Court/Getty Images]

Newman believes that clerical errors – whether intentional or inadvertent – have been compounded over the decades, severely undermining the reliability of statistics related to old age.

Some governments have acknowledged serious flaws in their record-keeping related to births and deaths.

In 2010, the Japanese government announced that 82 percent of its citizens reported to be over 100 had already died.

In 2012, Greece announced that it had discovered that 72 percent of its centenarians claiming pensions – some 9,000 people – were already dead.

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Puerto Rico’s government said in 2010 that it would replace all existing birth certificates due to concerns about widespread fraud and identity theft.

More prosaic reasons can explain the apparent longevity of residents of jurisdictions such as Monaco, according to Newman, where low inheritance taxes are a draw for older Europeans, skewing the demographic data.

Still, the idea of Blue Zones has been hard to shift, even in the face of reliable data.

Japan’s Okinawa prefecture has often been lauded in the media for its diet and cultural practices.

Okinawans, however, have some of the worst health indicators in Japan, according to the Japanese government’s annual National Health and Nutrition Survey, which has been carried out since 1946.

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While the traditional Okinawan diet is widely seen as healthy, a 2020 study found that the island prefecture today has a higher prevalence of obesity and higher rates of mortality among those aged 40–65 than mainland Japan.

Newman believes that the apparent longevity of Okinawans is the result of many deaths going unregistered.

“It’s almost like we are so determined that there is a secret to longevity that we’ll listen to anything – a secret to longevity that isn’t going to the gym, that isn’t giving up drinking,” Newman said.

“We want there to be some magic blueberries, and we want it so much that we can live in this sort of realm where cognitive dissonance is possible.”

Ikaria, Greece
People swimming off the island of Ikaria, Greece, on August 21, 2020 [Dimitris Tosidis/EPA-EFE]

Newman said that his research has not necessarily won him friends in academia, though he has been gratified with the support he has received from colleagues at UCL and Oxford, where he is a fellow at the Institute for Population Ageing.

He said that much of his work has received little notice from fellow academics and that a study he recently submitted for publication was subjected to nine peer reviews, instead of the usual two or three.
Newman did receive some notable recognition – and a legion of fans online – earlier this month, though, when he was awarded the first-ever Ig Nobel Prize in Demography for his work.

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The Ig Nobel Prize was created in 1991 as a satirical award for unusual research “achievements that make people laugh, then think”.

The prizes are handed out by genuine Nobel Laureates at an annual ceremony in Boston.

“I’m very happy that it’s getting more attention, because I think, I think deep down, everyone also knows this smoothie is not going to save them,” Newman said.

“I think it’s the safety blanket that you cling onto, and so to have that overturned in a way that’s hopefully funny, I think that gets a lot of attention and people enjoy it.”

Despite drawing attention to the problem of pension fraud, Newman said he doesn’t fault people resorting to such measures.

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“To be clear, I like that people are doing this because they’re being left behind by their governments in these places. They are not being given a sufficient pension. They’re not being given a sufficient retirement net,” he said.

“The fact that they are just saying, ‘Well, I’ll just keep collecting Barry’s pension from down the road.’ I think this is an indicator of the difficult pressures these people are under.”

Lifestyle

L.A. Affairs: Our night together reminded me of what I’d been missing this entire time

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L.A. Affairs: Our night together reminded me of what I’d been missing this entire time

On the way home, I stop by one of my watering holes for cocktails and a light meal. At this one, happy hour is frequented by local folks — a few of them salty dogs from the marina nearby. Once the bartender spots me, she starts preparing a margarita — with lots of love, as she likes to describe it.

Scanning the bar for a seat, I see a young woman engaging with the regulars. She is attractive: blond, blue eyes, soft facial features, petite and in good physical shape, and smartly dressed, a rarity at this Marina del Rey joint. She has a captivating smile and, as I soon find out, she’s funny and a good storyteller.

I sit next to her, and in between sips and bites, I learn a few things. She grew up in Los Angeles, and now lives abroad and is on a visit, checking up on her mom. She had plans for a ladies’ night out but that changed when her friend had to attend to a last-minute emergency.

“Well, how’s the ceviche?” she asks.

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“So-so. The short rib tacos are tastier,” I say, taking a bite.

“How about the margarita?”

“Boozy. I make them better,” I say.

“Hmm.”

Observing her easy chat with the bartender about drinks is fun, as I appreciate people who are curious about options and details.

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Soon a margarita arrives. “Boozy is good,” she says.

I laugh.

We continue chatting and slowly reach a moment where our stories are easy and playful. She is curious about my accent. I tell her about my formative years in Lima, Peru, and my family’s adventures relocating to the U.S. We also talk about places we’ve been and favorite destinations we’d like to explore.

After I finish my second drink, the check arrives.

“Well, it’s been fun, and now I’m taking the show on the road!” I tell her.

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She looks at me flirtatiously and asks: “Can I come along?”

“I’m just going home.”

With a wink, she says, “I hear the margaritas are killers.”

Giggling, we get into our cars, and she follows me home.

In my loft, everything catches her eye: books, art, pictures, CDs, liquor cabinet, furniture, the colors of the walls. She is having fun, but the thought that perhaps she is scoping the place for robbery crosses my mind.

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As I prepare our drinks, she asks about my life.

A fortunate man, I had a fulfilling and challenging career as an audio engineer. I traveled the world recording music, supported coverage of news events and various cultural and scientific expeditions. I learned along the way and contributed to a better understanding of the human experience with reports and stories aired on public radio.

These days I enjoy “full-time living” (my moniker for retirement): golfing, tennis, hiking, travel, reading, writing, cooking, music and happy hour.

With drinks at the ready, we toast to our chance meeting.

“Yummy. This is the tastiest margarita,” she says after her first sip.

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We move to the living area, and looking over my eclectic CD collection, we talk about music we like. For fun, we start playing DJ, listening to handpicked selections on the couch. When Tina Turner’s “What’s Love Got to Do With It” plays, she holds my hand and asks: “Would you join me for a dance?”

We get up and sway to the groove, and as we get closer, our eyes meet. Then she says: “Be sweet to me.”

We kiss long and hard, and when my hand touches her back, I hear a sigh.

“Wakey wakey, sailor,” she says, caressing my tummy.

“Wow! You’re delicious trouble,” I say, half-awaken.

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“I think we broke a record,” she tells me, smiling and playing with her hair.

Pulling her closer, we embrace, her head resting on my chest, and in silence, we breathe our scent and hear the beating of our hearts.

It’s the middle of the night, and she has to go. We get up, and I start on an omelet as she gets ready.

She joins me in the kitchen, and as we eat, she talks about her life: about her mom, work and a love relationship needing contemplation. “A work in progress,” she says about sorting through some difficulties with her partner.

Looking at her, I’m listening, loving the moment, thankful we are living it and confiding comfortably.

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Now it’s time to go, and giggling over nothing, we walk to her car.

I ask her to text me when she gets to her mom’s. She gives me a thumbs up, and with a kiss and a warm hug, we say goodbye. Then I watch her drive up the exit ramp into the night.

I turn around and feel alive! So much so that I skip back to my place.

Now, sitting on the couch with eyes closed, my thoughts take me back 45 years when I was at Georgetown University and met the woman who became my wife.

How magical it all had been: the way we smiled at each other, the coquettish small talk, and the tender sound of our voices. It led to lovemaking, courtship, falling in love, marriage and many years of growing up and building a life together. Unfortunately, we grew apart, and after 16 years, it ended in divorce. And I have remained single since.

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Tonight, out of the blue, that magic feeling from long ago returns with this enchanting woman! A gift: from my lucky stars and Father Time.

My cell dings: “Delicious Trouble checking in. Home safe.”

“So fun and special to have met you xo,” I reply.

The author is a retired audio engineer who lives in Los Angeles.

L.A. Affairs chronicles the search for romantic love in all its glorious expressions in the L.A. area, and we want to hear your true story. We pay $400 for a published essay. Email LAAffairs@latimes.com. You can find submission guidelines here. You can find past columns here.

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Bill Maher is getting the Mark Twain Prize after all

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Bill Maher is getting the Mark Twain Prize after all

Satirist Bill Maher is this year’s recipient of the Mark Twain Prize for American Humor. Maher will receive the award at the Kennedy Center on June 28th. The show will stream on Netflix at a later date.

Evan Agostini/Invision/AP


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Evan Agostini/Invision/AP

Bill Maher will be receiving the Mark Twain Prize for American Humor after all.

There’s been some confusion about whether the comedian and longtime host of HBO’s Real Time with Bill Maher would, indeed, be getting the top humor award. After The Atlantic cited anonymous sources saying he was, White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt called it “fake news.” But today the Kennedy Center made it official.

“For nearly three decades, the Mark Twain Prize has celebrated some of the greatest minds in comedy,” said Roma Daravi, the Kennedy Center’s vice president of public relations in a statement. “For even longer, Bill has been influencing American discourse – one politically incorrect joke at a time.”

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Is President Trump, chair of the Kennedy Center’s board, in on the joke?

Maher once visited Trump at the White House and he tends to be more conservative than many of his comedian peers but after their dinner Trump soured on Maher, calling him a “highly overrated LIGHTWEIGHT” on social media.

Maher’s acerbic wit has targeted both political parties and he’s been particularly hard on Trump recently, criticizing his decisions to wage a war with Iran and his personnel choices.

“Trump said, ‘when oil prices go up, we make a lot of money.’ Um, who’s ‘we?,’” Maher said in a recent monologue.

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Past recipients of the Mark Twain Prize include Conan O’Brien, Dave Chappelle, Jon Stewart, Julia Louis-Dreyfus, Tina Fey, Eddie Murphy and Carol Burnett.

In a statement released through the Kennedy Center, Maher said, “It is indeed humbling to get anything named for a man who’s been thrown out of as many school libraries as Mark Twain.”

Maher will receive the Mark Twain Prize at the Kennedy Center on June 28. The show will stream on Netflix at a later date.

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What European Luxury Can Learn From American Fashion

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What European Luxury Can Learn From American Fashion
This week on The Debrief, BoF’s Diana Pearl explains why brands like Coach, Ralph Lauren and Tory Burch are outperforming many European luxury houses — and what their turnarounds reveal about pricing, product, retail and long-term brand building.
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