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We’re not headed for another global financial crisis, top UBS economist says after recession warning

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We’re not headed for another global financial crisis, top UBS economist says after recession warning

Despite indicators like U.S. credit card debt pointing toward financial and economic pressures, another global financial crash is not imminent, UBS chief U.S. economist Jonathan Pingle believes.

U.S. credit card debt soared to $1.08 trillion in the third quarter of 2023, data from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York showed earlier this month. This has sparked concerns about what rising debt levels, brought on at least in parts by higher prices, could mean for the overall economy.

However, Pingle told CNBC’s Joumanna Bercetche on Wednesday that it is difficult to view the data as a systemic risk.

“I don’t think we’re facing the next GFC [global financial crisis],” he said on the sidelines of the UBS European Conference.

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Credit tightening does play a role when it comes to the lag of Federal Reserve monetary policy filtering through to the economy, Pingle suggested. “We are still waiting to see those credit headwinds dampen activity in 2024,” he said.

Credit tightening tends to precede loan growth by several quarters, so the full impact is not yet clear, he explained.

U.S. economy could have 'a few negative quarters' next year, UBS' Arend Kapteyn says

Several other factors also come into play, Pingle noted. This includes concerns about regulation in the wake of the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank, which raised alarms about the health and stability of the banking sector and prompted a crisis in regional banking, and “rapid” interest rate hikes, he said.

The Federal Reserve began hiking interest rates in March 2022 in an effort to ease inflation and cool the economy. Eleven rate hikes have been implemented since then, with the target range for the fed funds rate rising from 0%-0.25% to 5.25%-5.5%.

The Fed chose to leave rates unchanged at both of its last two meetings, and Tuesday’s lower-than-expected reading of the October consumer price index prompted traders to all but erase the chances of rates being hiked at the central bank’s December meeting.

The CPI was flat compared to September and reflected a 3.2% rise on an annual basis, while the so-called core-CPI, which excludes food and energy prices, came in at 4% year over year. This marked the smallest rise since September 2021.

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“It’s great news for the Federal Reserve in their quest to restore price stability,” Pingle told CNBC on Wednesday. Still, they are “not out of the woods yet” he added, saying that there was “still a ways to go” before the Fed reached its 2% inflation goal.

A trend of disinflation is however in place, Pingle said, and if the Fed can slow the economy, it could make strong progress toward its inflation goal.

“We think its probably going to get to 2 next year. It’s already falling faster than the Fed expects,” he said.

However the economy including the labor market will have to weaken further for inflation to steadily remain around 2%, Pingle expects.

UBS boss Ermotti says 'incredible' bond demand is 'a signal to the Swiss banking system'

“The path to two and a half we think is pretty clear, but sort of that last leg down we do think is going to take some weakening in the labor market,” he said.

In its 2024-2026 outlook for the U.S. economy, which was published Monday, UBS said it expected unemployment to rise close to 5% next year and for the economy to enter a mild recession. UBS is anticipating a contraction of the economy by around half a percentage point in mid-2024, its report suggested.

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A looming recession has been a key fear among investors throughout the Fed’s rate-hiking cycle as many have been concerned about rates being hiked too high, too quickly.

They have therefore been hoping for an imminent end to rate hikes and hints about when the Fed may start cutting rates again.

UBS foresees significant rate cuts for 2024, predicting that rates could be cut by as many as 275 basis points throughout the year.

Rates would be cut “first to prevent the nominal funds rate from becoming increasingly restrictive as inflation falls, and later in the year to stem the economic weakening,” the Swiss bank said.

Rate cuts will therefore be a two-step process Pingle explained, and could start relatively early in the year.

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“As early as March they should probably start at least calibrating the nominal funds rate,” he said, whereas the second stage would likely begin when unemployment starts rising.

 

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Fact Sheet: Fighting Discrimination in Finance Starts with Ensuring Diversity at the Agencies That Enforce the Financial Laws | Better Markets

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Fact Sheet: Fighting Discrimination in Finance Starts with Ensuring Diversity at the Agencies That Enforce the Financial Laws | Better Markets

WASHINGTON, D.C.— Cantrell Dumas, Director of Derivatives Policy, issued the following statement in connection with the release of a fact sheet titled “Fighting Discrimination in Finance Starts with Ensuring Diversity at the Agencies That Enforce the Financial Laws.”

“Financial regulatory agencies have the power to improve racial economic inequality by fighting predatory practices in the financial sector that disproportionately harm minorities. But the agencies’ commitment to this fight depends partly on their commitment to diversity among their staff. Diversity in staff enhances an agency’s ability to oversee complex markets, innovate in response to new challenges, and build public trust.

“The Dodd-Frank Act mandated the creation of the Office of Minority and Women Inclusion (OMWI)  and our fact sheet reviews OMWI’s FY 2023 Annual Report and highlights notable progress in minority and women representation at the SEC, OCC, FDIC, the Fed and the CFTC, as well as commendable efforts to implement diversity initiates and programs.

“A workforce that mirrors the diversity of the population it serves is better equipped to understand and address the varied needs of all stakeholders. This diversity is crucial for overseeing the financial sector, protecting customers and investors, and ensuring fair and efficient markets. A diverse senior leadership ensures that decision-making processes benefit from a variety of perspectives, leading to more comprehensive and inclusive regulatory policies.”

The Fact Sheet is available here.

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Better Markets is a non-profit, non-partisan, and independent organization founded to promote the public interest in the financial markets, support the financial reform of Wall Street and make our financial system work for all Americans again. Better Markets works with allies—including many in finance—to promote pro-market, pro-business and pro-growth policies that help build a stronger, safer financial system that protects and promotes Americans’ jobs, savings, retirements and more. To learn more, visit www.bettermarkets.org.

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Non-bank lending takes a larger bite of the ship finance mix

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Non-bank lending takes a larger bite of the ship finance mix

Those were the top level figures from the 16th annual analysis of key developments in global ship finance by Greece’s Petrofin Research.

Ted Petropoulos, head of Athens-based Petrofin Research, notes Asian and Australian banks (APAC) show significant growth, especially in their market share, which has increased from 43% to 45%. In terms of actual exposure, their portfolio amounts to $127.94bn compared to $120.83bn in 2022.

Among key findings of the analysis is that Europe still represents the biggest ship finance area at 50% of the top 40 banks, with lending at $141bn. The US remains home-bound while Europe has shown a marginal decrease.

Greek banks showed a significant y-o-y growth of 13% from $13bn in 2022 to $15bn in 2023. Greece’s market share increased from 4.6% to 5.2%. French and Belgian and other European banks’ portfolios also showed rises.

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Petrofin Research reports that the total global bank lending of all banks, including local banks, is approaching $375bn, i.e. approximately 62% of all types of the global ship finance total down from 67%.

“We can provide a cautious, indicative figure for global ship finance, including all forms of lending – leasing, export finance and alternative providers – of approx. $600bn. Interesting to note that Clarksons estimates the global fleet value at $1.5trn,” said Petropoulos.

“It should be noted that non-bank lending is showing considerable higher growth than bank lending over the years.”

Japanese banks now figure more prominently in global ship finance holding 22% of the top 40 banks. This development is supported by the weak yen and rapid rise in Sale and Leaseback transactions (SLB).

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“It should be noted that Japanese banks provide primarily loans to either Japanese owners or Japanese owned but international bareboat charterers,” said Petropoulos.

Poseidon Principles, a framework for encouraging decarbonisation of shipping through finance, now incorporates 35 signatories, which represent $300bn in shipping finance.

ESG considerations and bank strategies continue to favour bank ship lending towards eco vessels and Petrofin notes “there is increasing evidence that sustainability has become more prevalent in bank lending”.

Despite good efforts towards decarbonisation, there still remain doubts as to the required technology and its cost to meet the zero-emission target. Such concerns are shared amongst all stakeholders including lenders, said Petrofin.

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Finance

New Mexico Mortgage Finance Authority seeks contractors to rehabilitate homes

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New Mexico Mortgage Finance Authority seeks contractors to rehabilitate homes

A new report from the Governors Highway Safety Association shows New Mexico had the highest rate of pedestrian traffic fatalities compared to all other states in 2023. Full story: https://www.krqe.com/news/new-mexico-ranked-as-1-state-for-pedestrian-deaths-in-2023/

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