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Trump’s Treasury pick, tariffs, and retail therapy: 3 themes that drove markets this week

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Trump’s Treasury pick, tariffs, and retail therapy: 3 themes that drove markets this week

Financial markets gave investors a lot to ponder during the Thanksgiving holiday-shortened week.

US stocks closed out the week at record highs on Friday, propelled by technology stocks, while Treasury yields declined and the dollar slipped, reversing eight straight weeks of gains.

There was plenty of good news for markets. Wall Street was optimistic about President-elect Donald Trump’s Treasury Secretary pick, hedge fund executive Scott Bessent, and the possibility of more business-friendly conditions after Inauguration Day.

“This is the exact pick the market wanted,” Ed Mills, a Washington policy analyst at Raymond James, said to Yahoo Finance about Bessent.

Other good news included stable inflation numbers, decent consumer sentiment, and a solid start to the holiday shopping season as consumers took advantage of discounts on electronics and clothing.

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The National Retail Federation estimates total holiday spending in November and December will reach as much as $989 billion.

“It’s become a social activity, and I think that’s why we’re seeing some uptick in mall traffic,” former LVMH chair Pauline Brown said.

R.J. Hottovy, head of analytical research at Placer.ai, added, “We’re starting to see a bit of a comeback in those door-busters we saw once upon a time.”

However, tariff talk added uncertainty back into markets, particularly with Trump’s pledge to impose 25% tariffs on all goods coming into the US from Canada and Mexico on day one of his administration and an additional 10% tariff on goods from China.

Supporters of former US President and Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump shop while waiting in line for his final campaign rally in Grand Rapids, Michigan, on Nov. 4, 2024. (JEFF KOWALSKY/AFP via Getty Images) · JEFF KOWALSKY via Getty Images

Trump wrote the tariffs on Mexico and Canada will take effect if the two countries don’t take strong action to clamp down on illegal immigration and illicit drug flows.

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“I’m not a fan of broad-based tariffs — they make me really uncomfortable and nervous,” Moody’s Analytics chief economist Mark Zandi said about concerns over a broader global trade war erupting and the potential inflationary effects.

“It will not be good for the consumer,” former Gap CEO Mickey Drexler added.

Still, Trump’s nomination of Scott Bessent to the top Treasury post raised hopes that tariffs will be more measured. And with only 21 trading days left in the year, analysts, investors, and market watchers expect the good news for stocks to continue, barring any unforeseen events.

Year to date, the Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) has risen 19%, while the S&P 500 (^GSPC) has gained 26% and the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) has gained 28%.

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Finance

Consumer confidence plunges among younger adults

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Consumer confidence plunges among younger adults

Consumer confidence has plunged among traditionally optimistic younger adults amid fears for their personal finances and the wider economy, figures show.

GfK’s long-running Consumer Confidence Index remained unchanged at an overall score of minus 23 in June.

However, the analyst said this was was “misleading as, beneath the surface, there are new signs that confidence is weakening”.

Source: GfK

Neil Bellamy, consumer insights director at GfK, said: “The biggest fall this month is among those aged 16 to 29, traditionally one of the most optimistic groups.

“Here confidence has dropped 11 points over the past month to minus two, the lowest level seen for two years, driven by large falls in views on both their own personal finances and the wider economy.

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“More broadly, there are now no demographic groups with a positive confidence score, including higher-income households earning £50,000 or more, who have slipped back into negative territory as of June.

“Confidence remains subdued and vulnerable to further economic or political uncertainty.”

Sourve: GfK
Sourve: GfK

Overall, confidence in personal finances over the coming year remained flat at minus two, four points lower than this time last year.

The measures of both personal finances and the economy over the previous 12 months were both slightly down, by two points and three points respectively, “reflecting the sense that things have been extremely tough over the last year for so many”, GfK said.

The only measure to increase was expectations for the wider economy over the next 12 months, up two points to minus 36 but still eight points below this time last year.

The major purchase index, an indicator of confidence in buying big ticket items, remained at minus 20, four points lower than June last year.

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How US-Iran peace deal will affect our cost of living

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How US-Iran peace deal will affect our cost of living

“Ships of the World, start your engines. Let the oil flow!” said Donald Trump on social media after he announced the signing of an interim peace deal with Iran on Sunday. Under the agreement – which Iran acknowledged included a 60-day negotiating period for a final deal – the president said that following retrieval of mines, there would be a “toll free opening” of the Strait of Hormuz.

But many of the finer details remain “unclear”, said The Guardian. There are questions over the “exact timing of the reopening of the maritime route, who will oversee safe passage and whether any conditions will be applied”.

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Hong Kong graduates prefer careers in finance, survey finds

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Hong Kong graduates prefer careers in finance, survey finds
Hong Kong graduates believe the city’s finance industry is its most attractive and stable sector, making them more optimistic about career opportunities than their global peers, according to a study by the CFA Institute, which trains investment managers.

The US-based institute’s “2026 Graduate Outlook Survey”, released on Wednesday, found that 71 per cent of Hong Kong graduates rated their career prospects between eight and 10 out of 10. The global average for that level of optimism was 59 per cent.

The graduates’ view of careers in finance reflected “both the sector’s resilience and Hong Kong’s continued strength as an international financial centre, which ranks third worldwide and first in Asia-Pacific”, the institute said in a statement.

The findings also indicated that young people were confident about Hong Kong’s role as an international financial centre, resilient amid global uncertainties, and strategically focused on improving skills, it said.

That confidence was “deeply grounded”, it said, with nearly 90 per cent believing they had the skills to succeed and clearly understood what employers were looking for, notwithstanding the wider adoption of artificial intelligence in the city.

“Rather than viewing AI as a threat, 38 per cent of Hong Kong graduates believe it has no negative impact on their job hunting, and 37 per cent believe it makes securing a job easier,” the institute said. “Three quarters are already actively using AI tools in their job applications, demonstrating a proactive, tool-first mindset.”

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