Finance
Trump win has economists concerned US economy will fail to make soft landing
Investors this year have grown increasingly confident the US economy will achieve a “soft landing.”
But the election of Donald Trump as the nation’s next president has complicated the outlook.
And some economists now think it’s likely the US could face another inflation resurgence if Trump follows through with his key campaign promises.
“We are in the soft landing,” Nobel prize-winning economist and Columbia University professor Joseph Stiglitz said at Yahoo Finance’s annual Invest conference on Tuesday. “But that ends Jan. 20.”
Trump and his proposed policies have been viewed as potentially more inflationary due to the president-elect’s campaign promises of high tariffs on imported goods, tax cuts for corporations, and curbs on immigration. Those policies could also pressure an already bloated federal deficit, further complicating the Federal Reserve’s path forward for interest rates.
“The biggest risk is a large across-the-board tariff, which would likely hit growth hard,” Jan Hatzius, chief economist at Goldman Sachs, wrote in a note to clients on Thursday.
Jennifer McKeown, chief global economist at Capital Economics, also acknowledged in a note this week there are “upside risks” to inflation “stemming partly from Trump’s proposed tariff and immigration policies.”
And investors have taken notice.
On Wednesday, the latest Global Fund Manager Survey from Bank of America highlighted increased expectations of a “no landing” scenario, in which the economy continues to grow but inflation pressures persist, leading to a higher-for-longer interest rate policy from the central bank.
Tariffs have been one of the most talked-about promises of Trump’s campaign. The president-elect has pledged to impose blanket tariffs of at least 10% on all trading partners, including a 60% tariff on Chinese imports.
“It will be inflationary,” Stiglitz said. “And then you start thinking of the inflationary spiral. The prices go up. Workers will want more wages. And then you start thinking of what happens if others retaliate [with their own duties.]”
Minneapolis Fed president Neel Kashkari categorized a possible retaliation as a “tit-for-tat” trade war, which would keep inflation elevated over the long term.
“If inflation goes up, [Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell] is going to raise interest rates,” Stiglitz said.
“You combine the higher interest rates and the retaliation from other countries, you’re going to get a global slowdown. Then you have the worst of all possible worlds: inflation and stagnation, or slow growth.”
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Finance
Spanberger taps Del. Sickles to be Secretary of Finance
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Gov.-elect Abigail Spanberger has tapped Del. Mark Sickles, D-Fairfax, to serve as her Secretary of Finance.
Sickles has been in the House of Delegates for 22 years and is the second-highest-ranking Democrat on the House Appropriations Committee.
“As the Vice Chair of the House Appropriations Committee, Delegate Sickles has years of experience working with both Democrats and Republicans to pass commonsense budgets that have offered tax relief for families and helped Virginia’s economy grow,” Spanberger said in a statement Tuesday.
Sickles has been a House budget negotiator since 2018.
“We need to make sure every tax dollar is employed to its greatest effect for hard-working Virginians to keep tuition low, to build more affordable housing, to ensure teachers are properly rewarded for their work, and to make quality healthcare available and affordable for everyone,” Sickles said in a statement. “The Finance Secretariat must be a team player in helping Virginia’s government to perform to its greatest potential.”
Sickles is the third member of the House that Spanberger has selected to serve in her administration. Del. Candi Mundon King, D-Prince William, was tapped to serve as the Secretary of the Commonwealth, and Del. David Bulova, D-Fairfax, was named Secretary of Historic and Natural Resources.
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Finance
Bank of Korea needs to remain wary of financial stability risks, board member says
SEOUL, Dec 23 (Reuters) – South Korea’s central bank needs to remain wary of financial stability risks, such as heightened volatility in the won currency and upward pressure on house prices, a board member said on Tuesday.
“Volatility is increasing in financial and foreign exchange markets with sharp fluctuations in stock prices and comparative weakness in the won,” said Chang Yong-sung, a member of the Bank of Korea’s seven-seat monetary policy board.
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The won hit on Tuesday its weakest level since early April at 1,483.5 per dollar. It has fallen more than 8% in the second half of 2025.
Chang also warned of high credit risks for some vulnerable sectors and continuously rising house prices in his comments released with the central bank’s semiannual financial stability report.
In the report, the BOK said it would monitor risk factors within the financial system and proactively seek market stabilising measures if needed, though it noted most indicators of foreign exchange conditions remained stable.
Monetary policy would continue to be coordinated with macroprudential policies, it added.
The BOK’s next monetary policy meeting is in January.
Reporting by Jihoon Lee; Editing by Jamie Freed
Our Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.
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