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These Stock Market Indicators Are Sounding the Alarm. Here’s What Investors Should Do Right Now. | The Motley Fool

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These Stock Market Indicators Are Sounding the Alarm. Here’s What Investors Should Do Right Now. | The Motley Fool

There’s no better time to start preparing your portfolio for volatility.

Stock prices may be surging, but many investors are having mixed feelings about the market.

While nearly 40% of investors still feel optimistic about the next six months, according to the most recent weekly survey from the American Association of Individual Investors, roughly 30% worry that stock prices will fall in the coming months.

Nobody can predict the future, especially the short term. But there are a couple of warning signs investors may want to pay attention to right now — along with some steps to prepare for a potential downturn.

Image source: Getty Images.

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Will the stock market crash in 2026?

There’s no way to predict what the market will do this year, but it can sometimes be helpful to use historical context to get a sense of what’s happened in similar circumstances. And there are two stock market metrics that have not-so-good news for investors.

First, the S&P 500 Shiller CAPE (cyclically adjusted price-to-earnings) ratio. This metric is based on the average inflation-adjusted earnings over the last 10 years, and it’s commonly used to determine whether the S&P 500 is over- or undervalued. The higher the figure, the more overvalued the index may be.

Historically, the average Shiller CAPE ratio sits at around 17. As of February 2026, though, this metric is nearing 40. This is the second-highest value in history, next to the peak prior to the dot-com bubble in the early 2000s.

S&P 500 Shiller CAPE Ratio Chart

S&P 500 Shiller CAPE Ratio data by YCharts. CAPE Ratio = cyclically adjusted price-to-earnings ratio.

The second metric to watch is the Buffett indicator, which measures the ratio of U.S. gross domestic product (GDP) to the total market value of U.S. stocks. It was popularized by Warren Buffett, who explained in a 2001 interview with Fortune magazine how he used the metric to correctly predict the dot-com bubble burst.

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“For me, the message of that chart is this: If the percentage relationship falls to the 70% or 80% area, buying stocks is likely to work very well for you,” he said. “If the ratio approaches 200% — as it did in 1999 and a part of 2000 — you are playing with fire.”

As of this writing, the Buffett indicator sits at 221%. The last time the metric neared 200% was in November 2021, just before stocks entered a bear market that would last nearly a year.

What should investors do right now?

No stock market metric is perfect, as past performance doesn’t predict future returns. Even if there are strong historical patterns suggesting a downturn could be looming, that doesn’t necessarily mean a crash, recession, or bear market is imminent.

Perhaps the best thing investors can do right now is ensure their portfolios are prepared for volatility, just in case. That involves double-checking that you’re only investing in stocks with strong fundamentals, such as:

  • Healthy finances: A company needs to be on a solid financial footing to survive an economic downturn. Shaky companies can still thrive when the market is surging, so stock price alone isn’t necessarily a sign of financial health. Now is a good time to comb through financial statements to review metrics such as profitability, debt, revenue growth, and other factors that can indicate whether a company is likely to survive tough economic times.
  • Competitive advantage: When the dot-com bubble burst in the early 2000s and much of the tech sector collapsed, the companies that survived were those that had a leg up over their peers. Organizations that didn’t offer anything unique or had nonviable business models crashed and burned, and the same could happen again if we face another significant downturn.
  • A strong leadership team: Sometimes, a company’s survival depends on the decisions by leadership during pivotal moments. Even a strong business may struggle if the executive team consistently makes poor choices, making this a key factor for long-term success.

The stronger your portfolio, the more likely it is that it will survive even the worst bear market or recession. By double-checking all your investments now, you’ll be prepared no matter what may lie ahead.

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Finance

Proximo Congress 2026: US Energy & Infrastructure Finance | Insights | Mayer Brown

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Proximo Congress 2026: US Energy & Infrastructure Finance | Insights | Mayer Brown

Mayer Brown is a proud sponsor of Proximo Congress 2026. This senior meeting of the US energy, infrastructure, and digital infrastructure finance community is shaped around the questions credit and investment committees are actually asking in 2026: how asset classes are converging, how risk is being priced in a recalibrated policy and geopolitical environment, and how public and private capital are being structured together to deliver projects at scale.

Mayer Brown has also been recognized for three separate awards which will be presented during the event. These awards include:

  • Proximo North America Transport Deal of the Year 2025 – SR 400 Peach Partners
  • Proximo North America Rail Deal of the Year 2025 – Brightline West
  • Proximo North America LNG Deal of the Year 2025 – Port Arthur LNG 2

For more information, visit the event website. 

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Finance

What are nonconforming mortgages and what are the risks?

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What are nonconforming mortgages and what are the risks?

If you have ever taken out a mortgage, you’ll know there are a lot of requirements to meet. You may need to put down a certain amount and have a debt-to-income ratio below a certain threshold. You may also run into limits on how much you can borrow or what sources of income the lender will count.

These rules do not apply to all mortgages — just to conforming mortgages, which is what the majority of borrowers take out. However, mortgage lenders are increasingly offering what are known as nonconforming loans, or mortgages that do not “comply with every one of the strict standards put in place after the housing crisis,” said The Wall Street Journal. While “still a small portion,” the “share of mortgages using alternative lending practices” has “doubled in size over the past three years.”

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Financial Stress Is Changing What Consumers Value in Credit Cards | PYMNTS.com

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Financial Stress Is Changing What Consumers Value in Credit Cards | PYMNTS.com

What U.S. consumers ask of their credit cards has changed. For financially stressed households, it has little to do with rewards.

As more households turn to credit cards to manage liquidity and cover everyday expenses, a new set of practical concerns is driving card behavior: Can the card help avoid a missed payment? Can it make balances easier to track? Can it provide enough visibility into available credit and upcoming obligations to help manage an uncertain month?

Those concerns are beginning to reorder what consumers value most in their credit card relationships.

That evidence is clear in “Winning Top of Wallet: How Credit Card Apps Shape Choice,” a PYMNTS Intelligence and Elan Credit Card report examining how consumers use mobile apps to manage spending, payments and engagement across their credit card portfolios. The report found 30% of consumers primarily use credit cards to build credit or extend purchasing power, while another 22% primarily use cards for cash flow management, together outweighing rewards-based usage.

The divide is more pronounced among financially stressed households. Among consumers living paycheck to paycheck and struggling to pay bills, 40% cited credit dependence as their primary reason for using credit cards. Just 11% pointed to rewards.

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For a growing share of consumers, credit cards are functioning less like discretionary spending products and more like liquidity management tools.

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What Matters Most

That evolution is also changing which app features matter most.

Among cash flow-focused consumers, 31% said scheduling payments or autopay encouraged them to spend more on a card, while 27% cited alerts and reminders. Credit-motivated consumers showed similarly high engagement with tools tied to available credit visibility and payment timing.

Rewards still influence spending behavior, particularly among financially stable households. Half of consumers who prioritize rewards said tracking or redeeming rewards through a mobile app encouraged them to spend more on the card.

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But the report suggests that financial stress changes the hierarchy of engagement. As household budgets tighten, rewards become less central than predictability, visibility and control.

That shift helps explain why mobile apps increasingly influence which cards become top of wallet.

Among credit-dependent consumers, 77% said the quality of a credit card app influences which card they use most often. Credit-dependent consumers also reported the highest app adoption levels, with 77% using their primary card’s app regularly or occasionally.

The competition, in other words, is no longer simply about card acquisition. It is about becoming the card consumers rely on to navigate everyday financial management.

Digital Experience Becomes a Financial Retention Tool

The report also suggests that digital experience increasingly shapes retention risk.

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Nearly 1 in 4 cardholders said a poor app or digital experience contributed to reduced card use. Among Gen Z consumers, that figure climbed to 45%.

At the same time, 7 in 10 cardholders said app quality influences which card becomes their primary card, underscoring how mobile interfaces are becoming embedded directly into consumer payment behavior.

For issuers, the implications extend beyond app design.

Consumers living paycheck to paycheck hold nearly as many credit cards as financially stable households, meaning financially stressed consumers are not disengaging from credit entirely. Instead, they are becoming more selective about which cards feel easiest to manage and most useful during periods of financial pressure.

Rewards and promotional offers still matter, particularly among affluent and financially stable consumers. But for a growing segment of households, the most valuable card may be the one that reduces uncertainty around balances, payment timing and available liquidity.

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In a crowded multi-card market, financial visibility itself is becoming part of the product.

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