Connect with us

Finance

The Impact of Financial Advisors Since the Uptick in Policy Risk – Center for Retirement Research

Published

on

The Impact of Financial Advisors Since the Uptick in Policy Risk – Center for Retirement Research

The brief’s key findings are:

  • Our recent survey research found that older investors are more concerned about their financial future due to greater uncertainty over federal policy.
  • This new analysis explores whether financial advisors can help them cope.
  • Advisors are broadly more optimistic than investors on the economy and on how policy actions might impact financial security.
  • But on the specifics, advisors express concern over Social Security, Medicare, federal debt, and inflation, with many urging precautionary actions.
  • This ambivalence may help explain why advisors have no significant impact on their clients’ views on the future or investment strategy.

Introduction 

Planning for retirement has always been hard, because people face numerous risks – including outliving their money (longevity risk), investment losses (market risk), unexpected health expenses (health risk), and the erosive impact of rapidly rising prices (inflation risk). Further complicating such planning are possible shifts in the public policy environment: changes to social insurance programs can undermine the foundations of a retirement plan; changes to the tax system can scramble a household’s finances; and a ballooning government debt can increase interest rates and slow the economy. The level of policy risk seems to have increased dramatically since the start of 2025, so the question is how the recent uptick may be affecting the decisions and behavior of near-retirees and retirees. 

This brief is the second of two drawn from a recent study on the potential impact of policy risk on planning for retirement.1 The first addressed that question by combining a summary of the academic literature on the nature and effects of policy risk with a new survey of the changes in the views and actions of near-retiree and retiree investors since the start of 2025. This second brief adds the results of a companion survey of financial advisors, which provides information about what advisors are thinking regarding the uptick of policy risk in 2025 and what advice they are providing their older clients.

The discussion proceeds as follows. For background, the first section provides the major findings from the first brief. The literature review establishes that increased policy risk both harms the economy and burdens individuals. And the survey of near retirees and retirees indicates that older Americans are keenly aware of the increase in policy uncertainty and are taking defensive responses. The second section describes the 2025 Survey of Financial Advisors and presents the results. The final section concludes that, while older investors are worried and taking steps, financial advisors are ambivalent. This group retains a generally positive view of the economy despite recent developments, yet harbors some specific concerns. This ambivalence may explain why advisors have no impact on their clients’ views on the financial future or on investment decisions.  

Policy Uncertainty and Response of Households  

Advertisement

To be clear, “policy risk” is not about policy change, per se, but rather about the unpredictability of future policy. Even without any change to current policy, for example, a tight and polarized election forces households to consider a wider range of policies than if the election outcome were certain or the policy positions of the candidates were similar. 

Major Findings from the Literature

Researchers have used an array of techniques to measure the level of policy risk and its impact. The most common approach is textual analysis of media coverage for terms associated with policy risk.2 But other approaches include looking at the impact of actual variability in policy parameters, estimating the impact of tight elections, and using surveys to gauge household perceptions of policy uncertainty and their likely responses.  

The effects of policy uncertainty on the economy are broadly negative. In terms of the macroeconomy, uncertainty depresses economic activity, increases stock-market volatility, and reduces returns.3 Similarly, unemployment is found to rise in the face of greater uncertainty, while consumption and investment tend to fall.4    

For those approaching retirement and retirees, the most salient risks are related to Social Security, Medicare, and fiscal policy (e.g., the federal debt and tariffs). In terms of Social Security, the big question is how policymakers will address the projected exhaustion of assets in the retirement trust fund in 2033  – raise payroll taxes by 4 percent, cut benefits by 23 percent, or some combination of the two. With regard to Medicare, while its finances are generally structurally sound, the issue is whether policymakers will continue to tolerate the program’s growing costs, which create an ever-increasing drain on federal revenues, or cut the program by raising either premiums or copayments. In terms of the ballooning federal debt, the risks are rapidly rising interest rates on Treasury securities, which cascade through to other forms of borrowing, and/or a major increase in taxes or a decline in spending.

Advertisement

As individuals take precautionary steps to protect themselves against policy risks, studies have shown that scaring people to take actions that they would not have taken in a stable environment has real costs. In the context of fixing Social Security, for example, researchers have found that individuals would be willing to forgo as much as 6 percent of expected benefits or 2.5 months of earnings to resolve the uncertainty.5 

Results from the 2025 Retirement Investor Survey

The survey of near-retirees and retirees was conducted by Greenwald Research between July 7 and July 31, 2025. The sample consisted of 1,443 individuals ages 45-79 with over $100,000 in investable assets.

Throughout 2025, policy changed in drastic ways, and long-term trends in Medicare and Social Security financing have become more concerning. New deficits added to the already huge federal debt, and tariffs became a major source of anxiety. Not surprisingly, survey respondents have dramatically increased their consumption of media on these issues (see Figure 1).

It should therefore come as no surprise that near-retirees and retirees in the 2025 survey expressed concern about the direction and unpredictability of federal policy. Investors’ concerns for their financial future mounted (39 percent say concern increased versus 15 percent who say it decreased), while their confidence that federal policy will benefit Americans declined (61 percent decreased versus 26 percent increased, see Figure 2).

Advertisement
Bar graph showing the Changes in Investors’ Outlook for Their Well-Being since Start of 2025

These older investors have already reacted to this unpredictability in several ways (see Figure 3). For example, 21 percent of the unretired respondents in the sample have decided to postpone their retirements. And, on the financial side, 28 percent of the entire group have increased the amount in their emergency fund, and 33 percent have shifted to more conservative investments.  

Bar graph showing the Actions Taken by Investors since Start
of 2025

In short, the evidence shows that older Americans are keenly aware of the increase in policy uncertainty and are taking defensive responses.

How Do Financial Advisors Differ from Investors and What Role Can They Play?

One group that could help older Americans cope with the heightened level of policy uncertainty is their financial advisors. To find out what advisors are thinking and what advice they are offering, the second survey interviewed 400 financial professionals. Each professional was required to have at least 75 clients, at least three years of experience at their current firm, and to manage over $30 million in assets. Furthermore, at least 40 percent of their clients must be 50 or older, and at least half their income must be derived from financial products or planning. These advisors represented a cross section of firms, including broker-dealers, registered investment advisors, insurance companies, banks, and full-service financial services firms.

The advisor survey reveals a different view of the retirement landscape and its susceptibility to policy risk than the investor survey, but also a nuanced one. On the one hand, advisors have a much rosier view of the economy in general. In particular, while 53 percent of near-retirees and retirees say the economy deteriorated between 2024 and early 2025 and only 26 percent say it improved, the numbers for advisors are nearly flipped, with 47 percent saying the state of the economy improved and only 25 percent saying it weakened (see Figure 4). 

Bar graph showing the Changes in Advisors’ and Investors’
Assessments of the Economy since Start of 2025

And while investors say the government’s future actions will weaken their financial security by a nearly two-to-one margin (47 percent versus 24 percent, see Figure 5), the views of advisors are again very different. Only 31 percent of advisors believe the government will weaken their clients’ finances, while 36 percent believe government actions will be positive.

Bar graph showing the Changes in Advisors’ and Investors’
Assessment of How Government Actions Would Affect Their Financial Security since Start of 2025

On the other hand, even advisors seem to be recommending greater caution in response to the turbulent environment in 2025. In particular, 22 percent have recommended that their clients increase emergency savings since the beginning of 2025, as opposed to 3 percent recommending a decrease (75 percent recommend no change, see Figure 6). And the amount of attention advisors pay to political and policy issues has also increased since 2024 – 54 percent say they pay more attention to these topics than last year, as compared with 5 percent saying the opposite. Advisors’ level of concern about their own clients’ financial future also reveals their general unease: 28 percent say they are more concerned about their clients’ financial future in 2025 versus 2024, while only 9 percent say they are less concerned.

Bar graph showing the Changes in Advisors’ Views since Start of 2025

The advisors’ positive outlook for retirement is also somewhat contradicted by their concern regarding specific policy risks. Figure 7 shows that advisors are worried or very worried about a variety of risks. In fact, 63 percent report being worried about a major decline in the stock market, 65 percent are worried about a cut in Social Security benefits, and 79 percent about high inflation. Figure 7 also shows investor responses where the questions were similar to those for advisors. Notably, clients rank these risks quite similarly, but are almost uniformly more worried in absolute levels. Interestingly, both investors and advisors consider the federal debt to be the most concerning of the different topics.

Bar graph showing the Percentage of Advisors and Investors Worried about Various Risks

The underlying pessimism of advisors beneath their overall positive sheen has some specific implications. While the vast majority of advisors either do not recommend a retirement age to their clients or did not change their recommendations between 2024 and 2025, 11 percent advised a later retirement age. Only 1 percent shifted in favor of earlier retirement (see Figure 8). 

Bar graph showing the Changes in Advisors’ Suggested Retirement Age since Start of 2025

Moreover, the vast majority of advisors have recommended that their clients take precautionary actions in light of anticipated policy changes (see Figure 9). In particular, 21 percent have suggested cutting back spending; 49 percent have suggested changes to investments; 43 percent have suggested acquiring financial products to hedge investment losses; and 42 percent have suggested reallocation of resources, such as Roth conversions, based on the projection of higher future taxes. Only 21 percent have not recommended any of the above actions.

Bar graph showing the Percentage of Advisors Recommending Each Action since Start of 2025

Of those advisors who recommended changes in investment strategies in 2025 relative to 2024, most suggested a more conservative allocation. Twenty-five percent chose that option, relative to 18 percent who recommended a more aggressive strategy (with 21 percent suggesting a mix and 36 percent suggesting no change; see Figure 10).

Bar graph showing the Percentage of Advisors Recommending Changing Investment Strategies since Start of 2025

When asked about their personal investments, 29 percent of advisors say that the importance of protecting their assets has increased since 2024, while only 4 percent say that the need to protect assets has become less important, with 66 percent saying their views have not changed (see Figure 11).

Bar graph showing the Percentage of Advisors Saying that Protecting Their Own Investments Has Changed in Importance Since Start of 2025

Overall, the pattern of responses from advisors paints a picture of frothy optimism at a high level, coupled with fundamental concern about the implications of policy on financial security. When asked in any great detail about specific policies or about the appropriate posture to strike between conservative and aggressive investment behavior, the advisors generally display an increased preference for safety as opposed to chasing returns. Putting on a brave face despite underlying concerns may be a response to clients’ need for reassurance.

The ambivalence in advisors’ views may help explain why they do not appear to have much impact on their clients. Regression results show that the correlations between having a financial advisor, on the one hand, and the change in investors’ concern for either their investments or their financial future, on the other, are statistically insignificant in both cases (see Figure 12).

Bar graph showing the Relationship Between Having a
Financial Advisor and Investors’ Change in Views Since Start of 2025

Conclusion

While policy uncertainty has been much studied, big questions remain about the impact of the apparent dramatic uptick in policy risk. Our first brief on this topic showed that near-retiree and retiree investors have grown significantly more concerned about their financial well-being since the start of 2025. Even for this sample of relatively wealthy households, the potential for substantial cuts in Social Security was the major concern. In response to these risks, a meaningful share of these groups have taken steps to protect themselves, such as increasing their emergency fund and moving to more conservative investments, and those still working have delayed their retirement date.    

Advertisement

One resource that could help older Americans cope with the heightened level of policy uncertainty is their financial advisors. Advisors, however, seem conflicted. They are generally optimistic about the economy overall, with 47 percent saying they think that the economy is stronger since the start of 2025, and only 25 percent reporting they think it is weaker. On the other hand, advisors express concern about a broad array of developments, and most of those recommending changes for their clients suggest cautious actions, such as delaying retirement or moving to more conservative investments. The ambivalence in advisors’ views may help explain why they do not appear to have much impact on their clients’ confidence. The correlations between having a financial advisor, on the one hand, and the change in investors’ concern for either their investments or their financial future, on the other, are statistically insignificant in both cases.

References

Alexopolous, Michelle and Jon Cohen. 2015. “The Power of Print: Uncertainty Shocks, Markets, and the Economy.” International Review of Economics & Finance 40: 8-28.

Baker, Scott R., Nichola Bloom, and Steven J. Davis. 2016. “Measuring Economic Policy Uncertainty.” The Quarterly Journal of Economics 131(4): 1593-1636.

Boudoukh, Jacob, Ronen Feldman, Shimon Kogan, and Matthew Richardson. 2013. “Which News Moves Stock Prices? A Textual Analysis.” Working Paper 18725. Cambridge, MA: National Bureau of Economic Research.

Advertisement

Fernandez-Villaverde, Jesus, Pablo Guerron-Quintana, Keith Kuester, and Juan Rubio-Ramirez. 2015. “Fiscal Volatility Shocks and Economic Activity.” American Economic Review 105(11): 3352-3384.

Leduc, Sylvain and Zheng Liu. 2016. “Uncertainty Shocks are Aggregate Demand Shocks.” Journal of Monetary Economics 82: 20-35.

Luttmer, Erzo F.P. and Andrew A. Samwick. 2018. “The Welfare Cost of Perceived Policy Uncertainty: Evidence from Social Security.” American Economic Review 108(2): 275-307.

Munnell, Alicia H. and Gal Wettstein. 2026. “How Policy Risks Affect Retirement Planning.” Special Report. Chestnut Hill, MA: Center for Retirement Research at Boston College.

Shoven, John B., Sita Slavov, and John G. Watson. 2021. “How Does Social Security Reform Indecision Affect Younger Cohorts?” Working Paper 28850. Cambridge, MA: National Bureau of Economic Research.

Advertisement

Endnotes

Continue Reading
Click to comment

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

This site uses Akismet to reduce spam. Learn how your comment data is processed.

Finance

Big financing steps forward for The 78, Foundry Park projects

Published

on

Big financing steps forward for The 78, Foundry Park projects

Two of Chicago’s most pivotal but challenging undeveloped sites — Foundry Park on the North Side and the vacant South Loop parcel known as The 78 — moved forward in a big way Wednesday before the City Council adjourned for a summer recess.

Mayor Brandon Johnson introduced a $201.6 million tax increment financing subsidy for JDL Development’s scaled back vision for North Side industrial land along the Chicago River that once was supposed to be home to the Lincoln Yards megaproject.

And despite a slew of concerns from Council members, the full Council approved a $425 million TIF for The 78, a reference to Chicago’s unofficial 78th community area. The subsidy will bankroll public improvements needed for the South Loop development, anchored by a $750 million soccer stadium privately financed by Chicago Fire billionaire owner Joe Mansueto.

Downtown Ald. Bill Conway (34th), whose adjacent TIF is being raided to help The 78, again refused to go along with the $250.1 million piece of the infrastructure package that will primarily be used to build a 1,200-space parking garage. The $216 million garage will serve as the “podium” for an open-air plaza and future high-rise development on the air rights above the garage.

Referring to the Bears’ long-running stadium saga, Conway said Wednesday he appreciates the Fire “not trying to move to Hammond, Indiana, and become the Hammond Sparks.” But he said he “cannot look the taxpayers in the eye and tell them” he supported spending “$250 million to build a stadium parking garage and plaza.”

Advertisement

Finance Chair Pat Dowell, whose 3rd Ward includes The 78, has argued that the podium “brings the site to grade at Roosevelt Road” and is the key to “unlocking the site from the isolation that has stalled every previous development proposal.”

Deputy Planning Commissioner Jeff Cohen made that same point Wednesday, with a new wrinkle.

“The idea here is to incorporate that garage into the podium,” Cohen said. “It’s addressing a design and development plan that allows for all of the land within The 78 to be open for investment, rather than having to have either temporary or permanent surface parking lots to accommodate the car traffic.”

An artist’s rendering of the planned Chicago Fire soccer stadium at The 78 in the South Loop.

Advertisement

Related Midwest & Gensler

The $201.6 million subsidy proposed for Foundry Park pales by comparison to the $1.3 billion that former Mayor Rahm Emanuel once proposed for Lincoln Yards. That massive subsidy became a political lightning rod, with the avalanche of criticism led by the Chicago Teachers Union and then-union organizer Brandon Johnson.

The $201.6 million subsidy that Johnson introduced at Wednesday’s Council meeting is more likely to be criticized for being too little.

It will support just over 25% of the $800 million worth of roads, bridges, utilities and mass transit improvements that 2nd Ward Ald. Brian Hopkins has said were mandated as part of the Lincoln Yards plan.

Advertisement

Foundry Park developer Jim Letchinger acknowledged that there is “other infrastructure that the neighborhood would like to see done that is not possible right now.”

But Letchinger added it’s a start that includes the long-promised extension of the popular 606 Trail. “If you don’t start with something that’s achievable, you can’t achieve anything.”

“We have a plan to actually start building and creating revenue right away in conjunction with building our infrastructure … A lot of parks. Massive riverwalk. Ten acres of public open space. Very usable, very engaging,” Letchinger said Wednesday.

“As we continue to build, since we’re not using anywhere near all the increment that we’re creating, the other increment can go toward other projects that the neighborhood would like to see — whether it’s to build a bridge or fixing Elston Avenue, or anything else that they’re anxious about,” he said.

Public improvements promised to residents, but not covered by the $201.6 million subsidy, include another bridge crossing the Chicago River and a realignment of Elston Avenue, which Letchinger called a positive move in the long run, but a “massive undertaking” complicated by cost and property control.

Advertisement

“No private developer can realign Elston. It’s impossible. The city is the only one that can do that, and they’re working on it. There’s plans for it. But it will take a very long time,” Lechtinger said.

Ald. Scott Waguespack (32nd) said there is “one bridge that a lot of people still want,” but it goes through private properties owned by Ozinga Ready Mix Concrete and several other owners.

“The city would have to do it as a taking [of property], and that would be in the hundreds of millions of dollars. So they took that off the table because … that bridge wasn’t necessary at this time,” Waguespack told the Chicago Sun-Times.

Letchinger’s plan for roughly 34 vacant acres of the site calls for up to 3,737 residences, 20% of them designated as affordable to comply with the city’s set-aside rules. The new design includes low- to mid-rise buildings, some for offices, grouped near open space and riverfront access. Buildings would get ground-floor retail, and one is slated as a boutique hotel.

The project’s reduced density has drawn praise from residents. And Waguespack said he’s satisfied with the reduced public subsidy.

Advertisement

“In the future if there’s more needed, we could go back and do it. But this is much more grounded in a realistic infrastructure project that will still satisfy all the needs of connecting the neighborhoods,” Waguespack said.

Hopkins said he views the scaled-down subsidy and the infrastructure projects as “wholly inadequate” and a broken promise to Lincoln Park and Bucktown residents.

“Lincoln Yards provided for two bridges with the possibility of a third. Foundry Park has zero,” Hopkins said. “I don’t want to move on a vague verbal promise that we might consider adding a bridge later. The time to add it is now while the redevelopment agreement is still pending. And the fact that it was omitted is tragic. Also, the [Elston-Armitage] intersection redesign and the new Metra station seems to have fallen by the wayside.”

Also at Wednesday’s meeting, Johnson proposed a tax break for Chicago’s booming film and television industries — by reducing the 15% personal property lease transaction tax to 11%.

The tax has been raised twice in recent years and was the biggest piece of the revenue package that helped balance the $16.7 billion budget for 2026. It has exceeded revenue projections by $40.3 million through June 30, allowing Johnson to offer the break in hopes of attracting more film and TV productions to Chicago.

Advertisement

The City Council also followed a trail blazed by Gov. JB Pritzker and his counterparts in six other states by prohibiting present and former city employees — and elected officials — from using insider information to bet on prediction markets. Apps including Kalshi and Polymarket are used to place bets on everything from election winners and the number of candidates entering a specific race for office, to budgetary and foreign policy decisions by elected officials.

Championed by Ald. Timmy Knudsen (43rd), the ordinance prohibits current or former city officials, appointees and employees from using “confidential information or any non-public information, including the identity of the subject of an investigation” to either participate in prediction markets or “assist any other person” placing those bets.

The Council also confirmed Johnson’s appointment of Dr. Garth Walker as the city’s public health commissioner.

Continue Reading

Finance

The average cost of fertility treatments and how to plan for them

Published

on

The average cost of fertility treatments and how to plan for them

Covering the cost of fertility treatment can feel like yet another hurdle in a process that is already physically and emotionally draining. Not only do you have to go through the testing and medical procedures involved, you can also end up paying tens or even hundreds of thousands of dollars.

For families who want to have kids or women who want to afford themselves a little more time, though, this can feel like a price well worth paying. But the process may necessitate some financial planning. Research can also go a long way, as insurance companies increasingly offer coverage.

Continue Reading

Finance

Will SCOTUS campaign finance ruling yield big changes for parties? — Harvard Gazette

Published

on

Will SCOTUS campaign finance ruling yield big changes for parties? — Harvard Gazette

Fifty years ago, the U.S. Supreme Court struck down campaign spending limits in the landmark decision Buckley v. Valeo, finding the curbs violated First Amendment free-speech protections. Since then, several rulings, including the 2010 Citizens United case, which ended restrictions on election donations by corporations, nonprofits, and labor unions, have further loosened campaign finance regulations.

In this interview, which has been edited and condensed for length and clarity, Nicholas Stephanopoulos, Kirkland & Ellis Professor of Law at Harvard Law School, spoke about the recent ruling by the Supreme Court that lifted restrictions on how much money political parties can spend in coordination with candidates, its downside and potential upside, and its possible impact on the midterm elections.


Can you explain what the recent campaign finance ruling means? How is it going to affect political parties?

The recent decision is a not a huge blockbuster like some other campaign finance cases we’ve seen in recent years. That’s because the decision only involves limits on political parties’ coordinated expenditures with candidates, and that pool of money, both today and potentially in the future, is not enormous.

Before this ruling, parties could spend whatever they want, even before they could coordinate a lot of expenditures with candidates. Now they can just coordinate somewhat more. So, the stakes here were sort of moderate.

Advertisement

The two things the decision means above all are these: On the negative side, it’ll be easier now for a corrupt donor [to skirt individual donation limits] to funnel more money to a candidate using a party as the conduit or the vehicle for that contribution. On the positive side, parties are permanent, important political institutions, and now somewhat more money might flow to parties instead of super PACs and dark money groups and other more problematic organizations.

Nicholas Stephanopoulos.

Harvard Law School

Justice Elena Kagan, who dissented from this ruling, said this decision would increase the likelihood of “political corruption.” Do you agree?

First of all, notice that Kagan isn’t challenging the fundamentals of campaign finance law. She’s not claiming that money isn’t speech. She’s not claiming that all campaign finance regulations should be upheld. She’s fully arguing within the current court’s doctrinal framework. She thinks that the law at issue is necessary to prevent corruption.

Advertisement

Kagan points out that, with a little bit of bookkeeping, it should be fairly straightforward now for a donor to give effectively half a million dollars to a candidate channeled through a party, as opposed to the $7,000 the donor is allowed to give directly to the candidate.

With much bigger sums that can now be given through a party to a candidate, there’s the possibility of more quid pro quo corruption. A candidate isn’t likely to do very much in return for $7,000 but a candidate may do quite a bit more in return for $500,000. So I think we’ll see somewhat more corruption in politics as a result of today’s decision.

What’s the idea behind “money is speech,” which has been at the core of most campaign finance decisions since the 1970s?

The premise that money is speech, or at least it enables political speech, means that it can be covered by the First Amendment. That premise underlies all campaign finance doctrine since the 1970s.

It’s a controversial doctrine. Individual justices over the years have pointed out that money is not speech, and merely enabling speech is not the same thing as being speech itself. All campaign finance decisions since the 1970s have assumed that regulations of political funding involved the First Amendment because there’s a close enough connection to political speech, and even the progressive justices in the 1990s and 2000s still accepted that the First Amendment was involved here.

Advertisement

The implication of fully endorsing the position that money isn’t speech is that all of these cases would quickly fall by the wayside. If money isn’t speech and there’s no First Amendment issue presented here, then Congress can regulate campaign finance however Congress wants to, without any possible First Amendment problem. But that view has never been the view of the majority of the court.

Can you compare the impact of this recent ruling to that of the 2010 Citizens United case?

Citizens United involved independent spending by corporations, by unions, and the court said that there’s no valid justification for limiting any independent campaign spending, whether it’s by candidates, rich individuals, parties, corporations, or unions.

The current case involves the somewhat less-explosive issue of coordinated expenditures. Citizens United was a sweeping decision, striking down a very important federal law and opening the door to huge new sums to be spent in politics. This decision isn’t like that. It doesn’t involve independent spending. It only involves one actor, political parties, not the whole range of actors. The stakes are a lot lower than the Citizens United case.

With this ruling, the Supreme Court overruled a 2001 decision, which upheld the same limits on coordinate expenditures with candidates. How do you explain that?

Advertisement

The 2001 case was decided by the court when it was at its most pro-regulatory in the campaign finance context. What changed since 2001 is the composition of the court.

The critical change was when Sandra Day O’Connor retired in 2006, and Sam Alito replaced her. Alito has always been a skeptic of campaign finance regulations, whereas O’Connor, especially toward the end of her time on the court, was willing to uphold a lot of campaign finance regulations.

Almost everything that’s followed since then, Citizens United in 2010, McCutcheon in 2014, and other decisions striking down campaign finance laws, happened not because the world of politics changed or because there was some big insight on the court. It happened because the court became more conservative and what had been a five-four pro-regulation majority became a five-four anti-regulation majority.

It’s no surprise that the current court, which is now six-three against campaign finance regulation, doesn’t like a decision from this earlier period.

Will this ruling impact the midterm elections?

Advertisement

In the near term, this will somewhat benefit the Republican Party committees that have more funds at their disposal because they have just happened to raise a lot more money recently than the Democratic Party entities.

However, even before this decision, all of those Republican entities could still spend their money however they wanted to, so it’s not that big of a change for them. I think Democrats will direct more of their donors to give some more money to party organizations. There might be a short-term benefit for Republicans, but I don’t think this will cause a great imbalance in the system going forward.

Overall, I’m not incredibly alarmed by this ruling. We’re still going to have in place various other laws and precautions that will stop some corruption.

It’s bad for our system to allow super PACs and dark-money groups to become the leading actors in campaign finance. I’d rather have the money in parties’ hands than in super PACs or dark-money groups’ hands. I don’t think the doors are really open for that much additional corruption here. I think there’s a non-trivial silver lining in strengthening political parties, which are valuable institutions.

Advertisement
Continue Reading
Advertisement

Trending