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Ontario must prepare for ‘tougher times’ ahead, finance minister says before budget

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Ontario must prepare for ‘tougher times’ ahead, finance minister says before budget

TORONTO — Ontario should be prepared for “tougher times” amid global economic disruption, but the government won’t slash public sector jobs to buttress the budget amid uncertainty, the finance minister is signalling ahead of Thursday’s fiscal update.

Other provinces have recently braced against the economic headwinds by forecasting record deficits, raising taxes and cutting front-line jobs, but that will not be Ontario’s approach, Peter Bethlenfalvy says.

“The world has changed — and Ontario must be ready for what change may bring, even if that means being prepared for tougher times,” he said in a pre-budget speech earlier this month.

“As a government, we cannot eliminate uncertainty, but we can mitigate risks with a responsible, balanced fiscal approach that supports public services and infrastructure while maintaining flexibility.”

In that speech, he twice mentioned delivering government programs “efficiently and sustainably,” words that are sometimes used by politicians to signal belt tightening.

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“I think it reflects the fact that we’ve got to make sure that the money, the significant investments we’re making in social services, health care, education, gets to the workers who are providing, whether it’s a social worker or a health-care worker or a teacher, and making sure all the money just doesn’t flow to administration,” he said Wednesday in an interview.

Ontario has already tasked hospitals with coming up with a three-year plan to balance their budgets, in a bid to get a handle on growing deficits in the sector, using an assumption of getting two per cent annual funding increases. That is half of the increase they received the previous year.

Some hospitals have already started making some “lower risk” cuts under that plan, the Ontario Hospital Association has said. The province would need to add about $2.7 billion to meet the full operating needs of the hospital sector, the association has said.

The province’s deficit, in the most recent fiscal update earlier this year, stood at $13.4 billion. Bethlenfalvy has been silent on whether the path to balance remains the same as his plan in last year’s budget to get into the black in 2027-28.

Balance, however, has been a moving target. The 2027-28 goal is a year later than Bethlenfalvy projected in the 2024 budget, which itself was a year later than he projected in the 2023 budget.

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Ontario’s books are in a relatively good position to be able to stay on the province’s path to balance and lower the net-debt-to-GDP ratio, as long as it doesn’t use fiscal breathing room to announce new spending commitments, according to a budget preview from Desjardins.

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Hong Kong to roll out measures boosting offshore yuan trading in July

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Hong Kong to roll out measures boosting offshore yuan trading in July

As Hong Kong marks the 29th anniversary of its return to Chinese rule on July 1, the South China Morning Post talks to the city’s senior officials about the administration’s achievements so far and what may lie ahead.

Authorities are expected to roll out measures to strengthen Hong Kong’s role as an offshore Chinese yuan hub next month, the finance chief has revealed, with the government pushing to increase the number of listed firms trading stocks in renminbi.

Financial Secretary Paul Chan Mo-po also defended the city’s international financial centre status amid criticism of a heavy reliance on mainland Chinese initial public offerings (IPO), saying it was a strength rather than a weakness that the city served as a gateway for such overseas expansion.

Chan highlighted the need to enrich yuan investment products, noting there was “room” for increasing the city’s offshore yuan liquidity pool despite it being the world’s largest, with deposits of about 1 trillion yuan (US$145 billion).

He cited the Hong Kong dollar-yuan dual-counter model as an example, which allows investors to trade the shares of a city-listed company in either local dollars or renminbi.

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“We are working on the possibility of expanding it, but of course this is subject to discussion with the relevant authorities on the mainland,” he said. “But it is always our target to expand the product offering, to expand that counter.”

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San Diego County finances teetering toward structural deficit, watchdog study finds

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San Diego County finances teetering toward structural deficit, watchdog study finds

Days before the San Diego County Board of Supervisors is scheduled to adopt its multibillion-dollar budget for the year that begins July 1, a government watchdog group is ringing alarm bells over the fiscal health of the nation’s fifth-largest county.

Most concerning, according to an analysis by the San Diego County Taxpayers Association, is a 2026-27 spending plan that is balanced on paper but drifting steadily toward a structural deficit like the one that haunts the city of San Diego.

The driving force behind the worsening budget scenario is a 28% increase in the number of employees over the past decade and a half.

The 23-page analysis also pointed to escalating public health and social services costs, declining investments in capital improvements and an outsized reliance on state and federal tax dollars as drivers of the county’s diminishing financial health.

“The county spends more every year to grow its workforce while the infrastructure that supports operations is allowed to crumble,” said Mark Kersey, president and chief executive officer of the San Diego County Taxpayers Association.

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“More than half of the general fund comes from Sacramento and Washington – dollars the county cannot control – yet it has not prepared for cuts already scheduled,” he said.

A spokesperson for San Diego County said the proposed budget reflects thorough, year-round planning and careful consideration of community priorities and input.

“This ensures long-term fiscal stability while managing a consistently changing environment and meeting the needs of the community,” spokesperson Tammy Glenn said by email. “The analysis of San Diego County’s Taxpayers Association is lacking additional context and details that would provide an accurate representation of the county’s fiscal health and stability.”

Glenn also noted that San Diego County enjoys Triple A credit ratings from all three major rating agencies.

The county Board of Supervisors on Thursday is scheduled to consider adoption of the proposed $9.2 billion budget for the 2026-27 fiscal year that starts July 1. Two Republican supervisors worry that the spending plan relies on reserves; the Democratic majority said the budget is fundamentally sound.

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Now more than 80 years old, the San Diego County Taxpayers Association is a nonprofit, non-partisan government watchdog organization. It regularly produces research and policy analysis in order to promote efficiency and effectiveness among elected officials.

The taxpayers’ review of county financial practices follows a similar – and more scathing – analysis of San Diego city spending the organization released in April.

Like the evaluation of city finances, the latest study noted that the public payroll increased at a rate that was notably higher than the population within its jurisdiction. For San Diego County, the growth in its workforce was nearly four times the rate of residential growth.

San Diego County now employs 6.15 people per 1,000 residents, up from 5.07 full-time workers per 1,000 residents in 2011, the study said. In inflation-adjusted dollars, personnel costs have climbed by 53%, to $3.5 billion, it added.

Labor now accounts for almost 41% of county spending – up from the 32.5% it accounted for in 2011, the report said.

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The growth in payroll was due in part to rising costs for food stamps, health care and other state and federal programs – all efforts that are vulnerable to legislation such as the “One Big Beautiful Bill Act” passed by Republicans in 2025 that slashed Medicaid and Medi-Cal payments, the study said.

“The county is obligated to deliver service levels that follow caseload and eligibility rules set in Sacramento and Washington,” it said. “But the county retains meaningful discretion over how it administers those programs, and also controls fiscal levers that are entirely local.”

The consequences of the county’s fiscal practices are most visible in the region’s declining investments in infrastructure, the taxpayers’ association report said.

“The county’s capital-improvement program has collapsed to $45.8 million in Fiscal Year 2026 – the lowest in the 16-year data set and only 0.5% of the budget,” the report said.

“The county has published no facilities condition assessment for its 7.6 million square feet of buildings, even as the deferred Vista Detention Facility replacement alone nears a projected $1 billion.”

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In 2011, San Diego County dedicated some $289 million to capital projects, the taxpayers’ study noted, 4.1% of overall spending. The sharp decline in spending on long-term projects shows that elected officials are willing to put off difficult spending decisions, the authors said.

“The volatility itself is a finding,” researchers said. “It indicates that the county treats capital investment as discretionary rather than a planned, lifecycle-based obligation.”

While county officials have yet to create a structural budget deficit – where annual obligations regularly exceed revenues and services fluctuate widely from year to year – expected changes in demographics may worsen current conditions, the study said.

The taxpayers’ group said the number of people aged 65 and older is expected to grow by 244,000 over the next two decades-plus, driving up demand for the most expensive services while the working-age tax base shrinks.

“Every one of these pressures – the federal cost-shifts, the aging population, the maintenance backlog – is knowable and already on the calendar,” said Mike McLaughlin, the San Diego County Taxpayers Association chairman.

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“The county’s job is to build a budget that can absorb them,” McLaughlin said. “Instead, the data shows it drawing down reserves and leaning on one-time money in the very year it was warned about the cliff.”

The study also criticized San Diego County for providing limited insight into the specific outcomes of many local programs.

For example, researchers said, a 2024 assessment by the accounting giant Deloitte singled out the county’s escalating spending on efforts to prevent homelessness.

In all, that review found that the county operates 46 homelessness programs funded by 28 different sources. It also identified critical gaps in case-management tools and inconsistencies in its data collection across various programs.

Even though “rent-voucher programs showed better-than-national-average success rates at keeping people housed, the fragmentation of funding and programming makes it difficult for the county – or taxpayers – to evaluate cost-effectiveness or track year over year progress against measurable goals,” the study said.

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Robinhood Is Becoming a Full-Service Financial Platform. Is the Stock a Buy? | The Motley Fool

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Robinhood Is Becoming a Full-Service Financial Platform. Is the Stock a Buy? | The Motley Fool

Founded in 2013, Robinhood (HOOD +2.80%) changed the brokerage industry with its free trading model. Today, the broker’s product lineup has expanded well beyond stocks to include products like cryptocurrencies and prediction markets. With a focus on smaller investors, Robinhood is living up to its goal to “democratize finance for all.” But is becoming a full-service financial platform enough to make the stock a buy?

Robinhood is growing quickly

Although it was founded in 2013, Robinhood didn’t go public until 2021. In its first earnings release in the second quarter of that year, it had $102 billion in custody. In the first quarter of 2026, roughly five years later, that figure had grown to $307 billion, and it is now called total platform assets, given the broadening of the company’s business. The company has rapidly become a major player in the finance industry, building off its early success in attracting younger traders interested in stocks.

Image source: Getty Images.

There’s no question that management deserves a great deal of credit for what Robinhood has achieved. But that alone doesn’t make the stock worth buying. Notably, Robinhood is being afforded a premium valuation, with a price-to-earnings ratio of 45x, compared to P/Es of 39x for Interactive Brokers (IBKR +0.96%) and 18x for Charles Schwab (SCHW 2.97%). A growth investor may be able to justify Robinhood’s valuation, but a value investor likely wouldn’t be interested.

What’s going on with Robinhood’s customer base?

There’s another issue to consider here as well. With a focus on new investors, Robinhood may be taking on more risk than its long-established peers, such as Charles Schwab. This potential risk was highlighted in Robinhood’s solid first quarter 2026 results. Risk-taking is the big issue.

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While Robinhood’s transaction-based revenue jumped 7% year-over-year in the quarter, that growth was largely driven by prediction markets, which boosted “other” revenue by 320%. Cryptocurrency-related revenue, however, fell by 47%. This is notable because it suggests that aggressive investors shifted to what is the current hot trading idea.

Robinhood Markets Stock Quote

Today’s Change

(2.80%) $2.95

Current Price

$108.15

The problem is that Robinhood has never lived through a deep market downturn, such as the dot-com crash or the bear market associated with the Great Recession. Until it has, it is hard to know what its customers will do when every market seems to be heading lower, and losses are piling up. In other words, what will its customers do when there’s no new hot investment idea to jump on? There is a very real possibility that fear drives less experienced investors to get out of the market and stay out. Risk-averse investors will likely want to wait for Robinhood to be stress-tested before buying it.

Robinhood is not a bad company, but it is still quite young

None of this is meant to suggest that Robinhood is a bad company. It has done incredible things in a very short period of time. But that short period of time is a problem because the vast majority of it has been good for the stock market and investing. Robinhood’s stock is expensive, and the company has yet to face a deep, prolonged market downturn. Only the most aggressive growth investors will likely be interested in it for now.

Charles Schwab is an advertising partner of Motley Fool Money. Reuben Gregg Brewer has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Interactive Brokers Group. The Motley Fool recommends Charles Schwab and recommends the following options: long January 2027 $43.75 calls on Interactive Brokers Group, short January 2027 $46.25 calls on Interactive Brokers Group, and short June 2026 $97.50 calls on Charles Schwab. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.

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