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One of investing’s most reliable, highly-recommended strategies is up over 11% this year—so why do leading financial advisors still say they rarely use it?

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One of investing’s most reliable, highly-recommended strategies is up over 11% this year—so why do leading financial advisors still say they rarely use it?

The most popular investing strategy in U.S. history made a comeback in 2023. After a carousel of articles labeled it “dead” due to years of underperformance, the vaunted “60-40” portfolio—which allocates 60% of its holdings to stocks and 40% to bonds—has returned more than 11% to investors so far this year. That’s nearly double its 6.4% average annual return between 2012 and 2022.

George Ball, chairman of the large private wealth manager Sanders Morris Harris, told Fortune last December that people would regret neglecting the old standby. “It was only recently when the death of the 60-40 [portfolio] was widely reported, and generally when you get that sort of headline it’s ill-timed and ill-advised,” he said in a prophetic interview.

So it appears the death of the 60-40 portfolio has been greatly exaggerated and retail investors can just lean into the old reliable option to make money moving forward, right? Well, not quite, because what is widely considered to be the most popular portfolio allocation—the 60% equity, 40% fixed income split—isn’t actually used by most financial advisors.

Here are a few of the misconceptions about the most tried and true investing play in the book—and a few options to help investors make their portfolios look more like the professionals’.

Why the 60-40 is back

For the better part of a dozen years, dating back to the Global Financial Crisis, near-zero interest rates crippled the heavy bond holdings of the classic 60-40 portfolio, making equity-focused options more appealing. This came to be called the “free money” era, and some argue it birthed not just historic stock market gains, but an “everything bubble.” 

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It was a rough period for the 60-40 portfolio when more equity-focused options outperformed. But now, after more than 20 months of interest-rate hikes from the Federal Reserve, bonds are paying a solid real yield. This new period of higher interest rates is likely to make bonds—and the classic 60-40 portfolio—more appealing moving forward. 

“The intelligent investor will appreciate the trade-off between higher yields and lower but more certain returns to a greater degree than has been evident in this decade,” Ball explained. And if interest rates fall from here as inflation fades, bond prices will rise in turn, leading to some gains for investors.

That’s all well and good, but even Ball acknowledges that 60-40 is a bit, well, generic. The typical financial advice that you see in many personal finance articles that pushes retail investors to hold 60% of their portfolio in stocks and 40% in bonds was really only ever meant to be a guiding, middle-ground option—one that offers moderate risk, moderate income, and moderate price appreciation potential. It’s “a good starting place,” Todd Schlanger, a senior investment strategist at Vanguard, explained in a July article, but each investor has to “tailor a portfolio to their needs.”

What are your real investing needs?

Just ask the professionals who manage millions for high-net worth clients and it’s obvious the basic 60-40 portfolio is usually not the best option.

“We’ve never used a basic 60-40 portfolio for anything really,” Lori Van Dusen, CEO and founder of LVW Advisors, told Fortune. Van Dusen explained that she looks at clients’ profiles—this includes age, income, debt, spending habits, and more—and then “asks a lot of questions to get at risk tolerance” before creating a portfolio to fit each individual’s specific goals. 

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That means the classic 60-40 portfolio doesn’t typically work for her business. A retiree may need more income and stability, making the 60-40 split too heavily weighted toward stocks. And as Schlanger explained in July, the 60-40 portfolio also might not be the best choice for the average 25-year-old. “They would likely benefit from more equities to grow their portfolio over the long run,” he said.

So while the 60-40 portfolio is definitely rebounding, and it remains a solid jumping-off point for most investors, it also may be worth spicing things up like the professionals do.

The birth and criticism of the 60-40 portfolio

Before jumping into how wealth managers allocate money for their clients in 2023, though, it’s important to discuss the birthplace of the 60-40 portfolio and why it’s become increasingly controversial.

The Nobel prize-winning economist Harry Markowitz is credited with developing the logic behind the 60-40 portfolio. In a 1952 Journal of Finance paper aptly titled “Portfolio Selection,” Markowitz made the case that investors could maximize “expected returns” at a given level of risk by diversifying their holdings. The idea was the birth of what’s called Modern Portfolio Theory, which posits that “risk-adjusted returns” (a measure of returns compared to a portfolio’s expected risk) are critical when constructing any portfolio.

While focusing on risk-adjusted returns can lead to steady gains, lower volatility, and reduced risk over time, it certainly has its critics. As Mark Spitznagel, founder and chief investment officer of the private hedge fund Universa Investments, told Fortune in August:

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“Modern finance is about maximizing what they call risk-adjusted returns. And I say these are the three most deceptive, disingenuous words in all of investing. It’s sort of a cover or pretense: ‘Risk-adjusted returns’ is meant to almost distract from what really matters, which, of course, is maximizing wealth over time.”

Essentially, experts like Spitznagel argue that the logic behind the 60-40 portfolio is problematic, and that may mean investors should consider an alternative—or at least an augmented version of the classic. 

A 60-40 base—and a few ways to spice things up

Despite the pushback by some top investors, most wealth managers believe the classic 60-40 portfolio and Modern Portfolio Theory are still useful. “I don’t think 60-40 is dead. I think it’s more attractive than it was over the past 10, 12 years,” Eddie Ambrose, founding partner at Sound View Wealth Advisors, told Fortune.

Ambrose said the 60-40 portfolio could be a good starting point for many investors after the rise in interest rates over the past few years. “But I think you can dampen volatility, and maybe make your portfolio a little bit more efficient with some stuff that’s a little bit different, non-correlated,” he added, pointing to alternative investments in private credit, municipal bonds, and even real estate as options that could offer higher returns and reduce risk.

Even within the 60% equity and 40% bond categories of the 60-40 portfolio, there are endless ways to allocate capital and adjust for better performance. Brian James, managing partner and director of investments at Ullmann Wealth Partners, said he found the discussion of the 60-40 portfolio in the media “frustrating” because the question becomes “how do you define a 60-40 portfolio?”

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The classic suggestion might be to put the equity portion into a total stock market fund or the S&P 500, while the bond portion stays mostly in Treasurys or corporate debt, but James noted that the 60-40 portfolio can also be much more tailored to each individual.

“Depending on the portfolio or the actual net worth of the client, we may include real estate; we may include private investments; we may include floating rate debt,” he told Fortune. “So even though the entire portfolio may be technically 60% equities, and 40% fixed income or debt instruments. It’s a very different animal.”

Alternative investments

For investors looking to boost their returns and try a different allocation to the classic 60-40, alternative investments may be the way to go.

Don’t be confused by the terminology. Alternative investments is just a fancy phrase financial advisors use to mean anything that isn’t a bond, stock, or cash. In the past, experts would rarely recommend these options to clients. (Real estate holdings certainly don’t earn financial advisors a commission.) But now there are a number of new alternative investment options investors can take advantage of, from private equity to commodities. 

The most talked about option, however, is private credit. Instead of buying corporate bonds, investors can lend money directly to companies on the private market these days. For those looking to gain exposure to a burgeoning market that can offer some pretty juicy returns, it may make sense to pay attention to private credit. 

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LVW Advisors’ Van Dusen noted that with higher interest rates and banks tightening lending standards due to recession fears, the private credit market is booming as businesses look for alternative means of funding. “In my opinion, there’s a lot of opportunity there,” she said. “All of this debt that has to be restructured and companies are increasingly going to these private lenders.”

Ullmann Wealth Partners’ James also believes private credit is a “great place” for clients to invest. “A lot of companies are trying to borrow from banks, but it’s getting harder with the regulatory environment,” he explained. “So the quality of companies going to the private debt market is getting better.”

However, private credit can also be risky, and retail investors should only look into it if they have deep experience in the field or speak to a financial advisor. 

Municipal bonds

Another option for investors looking to enhance the typical holdings of the 60-40 portfolio is municipal bonds (munis). These are bonds issued by state and local governments or special districts that often help fund infrastructure projects, build schools, or finance day-to-day government operations.

Sound View’s Eddie Ambrose noted that munis offer tax advantages, solid returns, and relative safety. “Munis are good options in this environment,” he said, noting that high-income earners and retirees will benefit from the income and tax advantages in particular.

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Reeves hails ‘instant impact’ for aspiring homeowners as red tape is cut

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Reeves hails ‘instant impact’ for aspiring homeowners as red tape is cut

First-time buyers are set to see an “instant impact” from the drive to kickstart economic growth, Chancellor Rachel Reeves is expected to say.

More mortgages will be available at more than 4.5 times a buyer’s income following recent Bank of England recommendations that some lenders can offer more high loan-to-income mortgages if they choose to.

This will create up to 36,000 additional mortgages for first-time buyers over the first year, the Government said.

Britain’s biggest building society – Nationwide – announced last week that it is aiming to increase its high loan-to-income lending limit.

From Wednesday, eligible first-time buyers can apply for Nationwide’s Helping Hand mortgage with a £30,000 salary, down from £35,000, and joint applicants with a £50,000 combined salary – down from £55,000.

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It is estimated this will support an additional 10,000 first-time buyers each year.

The changes will sit alongside the creation of a permanent mortgage guarantee scheme, delivering on a manifesto commitment, and a review of Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) lending rules that could allow prospective buyers’ records of paying rent on time to be used to show they can afford mortgage repayments.

Reforms will be outlined in Leeds ahead of Ms Reeves’s Mansion House speech on Tuesday evening.

Speaking in the City of London, the Chancellor is expected to say: “I welcome the recent changes the (Bank of England) Financial Policy Committee has announced to the loan-to-income limit on mortgage lending, which the PRA (Prudential Regulation Authority) and FCA are implementing immediately.

“With an instant impact for consumers, such as Nationwide offering its Helping Hand mortgage to more first-time buyers – supporting an additional 10,000 each year.”

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Ms Reeves is expected to add: “Today, I have placed financial services at the heart of the Government’s growth mission.

“Recognising that Britain cannot succeed and meet its growth ambitions without a financial services sector that is fighting fit and thriving.

“And I have been clear on the benefits that that will drive.

“With a ripple effect that will drive investment in all sectors of our economy and put pounds in the pockets of working people.”

Nicholas Mendes​​​​, mortgage technical manager at broker John Charcol, said: “The decision to widen access to Nationwide’s Helping Hand mortgage by lowering the income thresholds will offer an immediate and practical benefit to a group of people who have often found themselves just on the wrong side of affordability criteria.

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Fulton Financial Earnings: What To Look For From FULT

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Fulton Financial Earnings: What To Look For From FULT

Regional banking company Fulton Financial (NASDAQ:FULT) will be announcing earnings results this Tuesday after the bell. Here’s what to expect.

Fulton Financial beat analysts’ revenue expectations by 1.8% last quarter, reporting revenues of $318.4 million, up 20.6% year on year. It was a very strong quarter for the company, with an impressive beat of analysts’ EPS estimates and a decent beat of analysts’ tangible book value per share estimates.

Is Fulton Financial a buy or sell going into earnings? Read our full analysis here, it’s free.

This quarter, analysts are expecting Fulton Financial’s revenue to decline 5% year on year to $318 million, a reversal from the 22.4% increase it recorded in the same quarter last year. Adjusted earnings are expected to come in at $0.45 per share.

Fulton Financial Total Revenue

Analysts covering the company have generally reconfirmed their estimates over the last 30 days, suggesting they anticipate the business to stay the course heading into earnings. Fulton Financial has missed Wall Street’s revenue estimates twice over the last two years.

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With Fulton Financial being the first among its peers to report earnings this season, we don’t have anywhere else to look to get a hint at how this quarter will unravel for banks stocks. However, there has been positive investor sentiment in the segment, with share prices up 10.3% on average over the last month. Fulton Financial is up 11.2% during the same time and is heading into earnings with an average analyst price target of $19.80 (compared to the current share price of $19.11).

Here at StockStory, we certainly understand the potential of thematic investing. Diverse winners from Microsoft (MSFT) to Alphabet (GOOG), Coca-Cola (KO) to Monster Beverage (MNST) could all have been identified as promising growth stories with a megatrend driving the growth. So, in that spirit, we’ve identified a relatively under-the-radar profitable growth stock benefiting from the rise of AI, available to you FREE via this link.

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What drives financial fraud? It can come down to one emotion | CNN Business

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What drives financial fraud? It can come down to one emotion | CNN Business



CNN
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Editor’s note: Watch CNN Original Series “Billionaire Boys Club,” detailing the greed-fueled landscape of 1980s Los Angeles where a group of young, ambitious men set out to make their fortune — but their lavish dreams quickly spiral into a web of deception, fraud and murder.

It’s the 1980s, and a group of young men have dreams of making a fortune.

When Joe Hunt reconnects with his former high school classmates in Los Angeles, he has promises of a new business venture that will make them rich. With visions of wealth and success, the young men are lured into what becomes a web of fraud — and a cautionary tale that devolves into murder.

CNN Original Series’ “Billionaire Boys Club” recounts this tale of greed from Wall Street. It’s a dark example of a kind of fraud that has reoccurred throughout modern financial history. It’s also a reminder of how aspirations of wealth can be exploited.

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Ahead of the series premiere this evening at 9 p.m. ET, CNN spoke with three experts in economics and finance to better understand why greed is persistent in markets, what hidden risks might linger and how to protect your finances from fraudulent schemes.

After Hunt reconnects with his former classmates, including Dean Karny and Ben Dosti, the group starts a new social and investment club. At its core, greed drives their pursuit of wealth and power.

Greed has driven people’s actions throughout history, including in the world of finance, said Anat Admati, professor of finance and economics at Stanford Graduate School of Business.

“Greed is about wanting things to own, to consume,” Admati said. “It’s pervasive.”

Capitalism and markets are profit-driven by design. While that framework can produce remarkable wealth and growth, it can also be taken advantage of by bad actors. In the case of the Billionaire Boys Club, Hunt goes down a path that eventually spirals into deception.

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Greed can be particularly pervasive in finance because promises of wealth can manipulate people’s emotions, Admati said. This can sway them to believe in get-rich-quick opportunities — and fall for Ponzi schemes.

“Money is a source of power and admiration,” she said. “The culture of wanting wealth and financial success is strong. Then it meets the human psychological feature of wanting to believe things, or wanting to trust people.”

While there are many cautionary tales of deceit, people often fall for fraud because they don’t think they could be the one who is being duped, Admati said.

“People are more likely to be tricked into believing things when they don’t understand the way claims that are being made to them can be manipulated at the backend,” she said.

The 1980s was an era known for greed on Wall Street, as detailed in the “Billionaire Boys Club” series; books including “Barbarians at the Gate,” by journalists Bryan Burrough and Joe Helyar and “Liar’s Poker” by Michael Lewis; and the 1987 movie “Wall Street.”

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In the 21st century, varying degrees of financial deceit — from the Enron accounting scandal to the devastating consequences of massive Ponzi schemes like the one run by Bernie Madoff — continue to impact people across the country. Just last week, the US Securities and Exchange Commission announced it had charged a Georgia-based company with running a $140 million Ponzi scheme.

David Smith, a professor of economics at Pepperdine Graziadio School of Business, said it’s often the same, recurring themes of greed that take place in different frameworks.

“As an economist, one of the things we study very carefully is incentives and how they drive human behavior,” Smith said. “Individuals are driven by different motives, but one of them is to acquire wealth.”

Pure greed and the desire to acquire more wealth or experiences of financial hardship are reasons why a person might commit fraud, Smith said.

Bernie Madoff, known for bilking thousands of investors out of billions of dollars, arrives at Manhattan federal court on March 12, 2009.
Energy trading firm Enron's headquarters in Houston, Texas. The company's 2001 bankruptcy filing was the largest in American history at the time.

And the rise of cryptocurrencies has opened investors to a plethora of new risks and potential scams, according to Hilary Allen, a law professor at American University.

While bitcoin and other crypto have proved profitable for some, there have been numerous instances of memecoins — a functionally worthless asset that trades on hype and often results in investors losing cash. Victims reported more than $5.6 billion in fraud related to cryptocurrency in 2023, a 45% increase from losses reported in 2022, according to an FBI report.

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“There’s no good reason for it to have value other than the fact that you think that someone else will buy it from you in the future for more than you paid for it,” Allen said. “And that’s pretty Ponzi-like.”

From Wall Street in the 1980s to memecoins in the 2020s, a lack of oversight and regulation can create opportunities for bad actors, Allen said.

“Greed is not new, and greed in financial services is particularly not new, because that’s where the money is,” Allen said.

In April, the SEC announced it charged an individual for orchestrating a fraudulent crypto scheme that raised $198 million from investors. Ramil Palafox misappropriated $57 million of investor funds to purchase Lamborghini cars and items from “luxury retailers,” the SEC said, in addition to engaging in a “Ponzi-like scheme” until the fraudulent project collapsed.

“Financial markets are at least relatively transparent, whereas cryptocurrency, even though it claims it’s built on the backbone of full verification and public display of the blockchain, there are still a lot of opportunities for bad actors to take advantage of the lack of information that exists,” Pepperdine’s Smith said. “There’s also the lack of regulation.”

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Greed can underpin wild stories of corruption and murder, including the Billionaires Boys Club. But greed and fraud can also arise daily, from phishing emails to online scams.

There are steps people can take to better protect themselves, Smith said. “If it’s too good to be true, it probably is.”

As for why people are drawn to learning about stories of greed and financial fraud, Smith said it gets to a core of human emotion that people can relate to. “I think we can all empathize with the allure of an opportunity that sounds like a shortcut to something,” he said.

Individuals have to gauge their own risk tolerance for investing in anything, whether it is stocks or crypto, he said, but “it’s always good advice not to expose too much of your underlying financial wealth to a new opportunity.”

“Make sure that you seek good financial advice before you do anything,” he said. “Talk with a financial advisor, your friends or family members. Oftentimes, the worst financial decisions are made in isolation, where people don’t vet their ideas or what’s being proposed to them with others.”

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