Finance
Netflix stock pre-earnings: Is the upside already priced in?
00:00 Speaker A
We are cranking it up a few extra gears with Stock of the Week. I’m locked in on Netflix ahead of its July 17th earnings report. What’s caught my attention is that the stock has been underperforming the broader market rally this month. Shares are down five and a half percent in July while the S&P 500 is up 1.7%. Judging by the Wall Street commentary out there, analysts aren’t making too much of this trend divergence though. Needham analyst, Laura Martin, is out today raising her target price on Netflix to $1500 from $1126. She says she remains impressed with Netflix’s global scale and stable content spending. Jumping into the Yahoo Finance platform, you can see Martin isn’t alone in her bullishness. The street has hiked its 2025 EPS estimate on Netflix by 79 cents compared to just 90 days ago. They have also lifted their 2026 EPS estimate by 60 cents during that same time span. Still with me, my round table Larry Tenterelli, Steve Sosnick, and Inez Ferre. Uh, Inez, I want to go to you here on Netflix out of the jump. Netflix, I can understand why these estimates have climbed. Really for the better part of two years, Netflix has come out here and they have completely destroyed, crushed, hammered, however you want to put it, earnings estimates, and they have come out and raised guidance. I’m trying to think, why won’t that happen again, given how popular the platform is?
02:24 Inez Ferre
Well, certainly you have a lot of Wall Street that believes that they can continue to outperform as a company. I mean, they’ve had their password share crackdown. They’ve had their ad tiers that has done very well. They are pushing into live sports. So there’s a lot of reasons why the street is bullish on the stock that and you mentioned the sort of underperformance this week, but look, if you take a look at a year to date chart and you take a look at where it’s come from the April lows, you have Seaport Global that has been that noted this when they actually lowered their rating to neutral because they said, “It’s a lot that’s baked into the stock right now. And on evaluation standpoint, they’re saying, let’s just wait to for for management to execute on everything that is now priced into the share into these shares because they’ve gone up since those April lows, almost 50%.”
04:01 Speaker A
Larry, let me get over to you here. The stock has underperformed in July. Any concern or red flag on your part there ahead of earnings?
04:24 Larry Tenterelli
No, that’s part of the rotation that I discussed that started on July 1st. The chart that you just put up showed a sharp pullback in Netflix on July 1st. And we saw that with quite a few of the high momentum stocks and money moved into small caps, healthcare, home builders. And I I think it’s a normal sector rotation. Fund managers have made a lot of money this year in tech and some of these growth stocks. And I think it’s a normal rotation to book some gains and then reallocate into underperformers. Netflix is a very strong long-term uptrend. It could always consolidate after nearly a 50% move off the lows, but the long-term trend is very strong.
05:20 Speaker A
Hey Larry, that’s what I’m trying to get at. Is it, is the stock become so priced for perfection? Even if Netflix comes out again, beats on earnings, maybe the street’s just continue to inclined to sell this name.
05:37 Larry Tenterelli
That’s possible. There there’s a lot of gains in a stock like Netflix that could be booked. So as a trend follower, I’m going to stay with the weekly trend, which is strong, but a lot of these stocks have had big run-ups. So if there was some profit taking into earnings or after earnings, as long as they stay over the 50-day moving average, it really wouldn’t concern me.
06:04 Speaker A
Steve, last word to you. Is Netflix perhaps one of the most perfect stocks in the market? Uh, they had Squid Games, the finale drop at the end of the quarter. This is going to be the first full quarter where they raise prices on folks. So their profit should look pretty good. And oh yeah, there’s no tariff exposure.
06:39 Steve Sosnick
Oh, it’s certainly been a beneficiary for all the reasons you’ve suggested and both and Inez and Larry both made great points about like the the year-to-date performance and also sort of the um, end of the second quarter markup fading uh, at the as of the 1st of July. Um, but I do think, you know, it’s proven to be a very price inelastic stock. I know that I’ve tried to cancel it and my wife and kids have revolted every time I try. Can’t cancel Netflix, Steve. What are you doing, man?
07:39 Steve Sosnick
I don’t watch it. My family does. I watch other stuff. I watch more sports than Netflix, but what ends up happening is they they they rebelled and said, “Absolutely not.” And so I think they’re, you know, this company, every time they’ve tried to do something that people thought might scare off customers, it hasn’t. The question now is, is it priced, is it priced to perfection, or is it priced beyond perfection? Uh, the trends are certainly very strong. Um, it’s been a great company and the, you know, but but as with many things market-related, have we gotten we’ll find out when the earnings come out if we’ve gotten a bit ahead of our skis, um, in terms of expecting another round of perfection. But boy, the market since the last earnings, uh, the market’s really repriced this stock in a very positive way.
Finance
Hong Kong reasserts role as safe haven in global finance amid Iran conflict
The seven-week military conflict in the Middle East will redefine Hong Kong’s role as a global financial centre, positioning the city as a safe harbour for capital and investments.
Anecdotal evidence suggested that more banks had turned to Hong Kong to protect their businesses and committed themselves to expanding their presence in the city. At the same time, inquiries about adding allocations of mainland Chinese assets among global investors had recently increased, potentially enlarging the customer base for the city’s asset-management industry and family offices and driving demand for offshore yuan-linked financial products.
For years, Hong Kong’s status as a financial centre in the Asia-Pacific region has been challenged by Dubai, which has risen to prominence as a gateway linking Asia and Europe in capital flows, transport and logistics. With the war destabilising the Middle East – at one point forcing the closure of the Dubai International Airport and sending stocks in the Gulf region plunging – Hong Kong has re-emerged due to its geographical location, a pegged exchange rate, free capital flows and support from China’s economic strength.
“In that context, China and Hong Kong are attracting renewed attention,” said Gary Dugan, CEO of The Global CIO Office in Dubai, which advises family offices and ultra-high-net-worth individuals globally. “There is growing interest among some clients in increasing exposure to China and Hong Kong. It is less a simple flight to safety and more a reassessment of where investors see relative value, policy consistency and long-term strategic opportunity.”
Dubai now relies on trade, tourism and finance as the pillars of its economy, reflecting the success of its four-decade diversification away from oil for sustained growth. The United Arab Emirates city is home to Jebel Ali Free Zone, the biggest free-trade zone in the Middle East, and the second-largest stock market in the region, with combined market values of US$1.01 trillion. The city, also a global hub for gold trading, has a population of 4 million, about 80 per cent of which are foreign expatriates. Dubai’s economy grew by 4.7 per cent in the January-to-September period last year.
Finance
Budget crisis is top concern for MPS leader Cassellius | Opinion
Before seeking a new referendum MPS needs to rebuild trust in the community through completing state audits, putting in place controls to prevent overspending and routine reports to the public.
For MPS Superintendent Brenda Cassellius, who just wrapped up her first year leading Milwaukee’s public school system, her tenure has been punctuated by some very big numbers.
The first is $252 million. That is the amount of new spending voters narrowly approved in an April 2024 referendum to support operations in Wisconsin’s largest school district. Just months later, MPS was rocked by revelations the district was months behind in filing key financial reports to the state, which led to former Superintendent Keith Posley’s resignation.
The second is $1 billion. MPS faces a deferred maintenance backlog exceeding $1 billion. The district’s enrollment has declined 30% over the last 30 years, leaving many schools at less than 50% full. That, in part, is driving a plan to close some schools and to improve others to help lower costs.
The final is $46 million, the deficit MPS was running for the 2024-25 school year, an unexpected shortfall which has led to hundreds of staff layoffs.
Getting the district’s accounting, budgeting and financial reporting back on track has dominated Cassellius’s first year at MPS. In an April 15 interview with the Journal Sentinel’s editorial board, she talked in detail about the challenges putting that into order and progress she sees in restoring transparency into its operations.
State funding and aging buildings create budget nightmares
Cassellius says state needs to keep up its share of school funding
In an interview with the Journal Sentinel editorial board, MPS leader Brenda Cassellius says budgets and buildings are her two top worries.
Cassellius said the on-going budget crisis is her top concern. She said the state’s failure to live up to its share of funding is exacerbating MPS’ budget woes. A group of school districts, teachers and parents filed suit against the state Legislature and its Joint Finance Committee claiming the current state funding system is unconstitutional and prevents schools from meeting students’ educational needs.
Funding for special education is especially critical. About 20% of MPS students have disabilities, almost twice the share of the city’s charter schools, and the average of 14% across Wisconsin.
“What’s keeping me up now, you know, is really just the budget crisis we’re in, with not only this year but multiple years going out without additional state aid, we’ve been not getting funding for what our needs are for our students, and particularly our students with special needs,” she said.
Although the state budget increased special education funding to a 42% reimbursement rate, the actual rate has been about 35%. Another component to the budget headache is the age of MPS buildings. The average age is 85 years-old compared to 45 across the nation.
“We have just kicked this can down the curb or kicked it down the street or whatever you call it for too long. And it’s time that we really take on a serious conversation about the conditions of the learning environments in which we send our children,” she said. “Particularly in Milwaukee Public Schools, we serve the most vulnerable children. Children who have language barriers, children who have disabilities, children in high-concentrated poverty.”
What needs to happen before MPS seeks another referendum
Voters need to be comfortable MPS has made tough budget decisions
In an interview with Journal Sentinel editorial board, Brenda Cassellius said voters will need to see budget improvements before seeking more spending
Cassellius said MPS will definitely need to go back to voters for a new referendum in the future. In addition to the 2024 measure, voters approved an $87 million plan in 2020.
Before doing that, she said the district first needs to rebuild trust in the community through completing required state audits, putting into place controls to prevent overspending and routine reports to the school board and public about finances.
“I don’t think that the voters are going to want us to bring something forward until they feel comfortable that we have done the cleanup that is necessary,” she said. “And we’ve built the trust that we have the sufficient controls in place.”
In the interim, she’s hoping the state will meet its constitutional responsibility to adequately fund public schools.
“What the public expects is you know where the money is, you’re spending it as close as you can to children, you’re getting good on the promise around art, music, and PE, and the things the public said they wanted to fund,” Cassellius said. “And they want their kids to have so that they have a quality education and an excellent education in Milwaukee Public Schools, and that they had the right amount of staff that they actually need. In the school to be safe and to run a good operation.”
Rebuilding finance staff in wake of $46 million in overspending
MPS is rebuilding school finance staff in wake of reporting lapses
In an interview with the Journal Sentinel editorial board April 15, MPS superintendent discusses accountability for district’s financial problems.
The $46 million budget shortfall from the 2024-25 school year started coming into view last fall and was confirmed in mid-January. Cassellius noted that in addition to hiring a new superintendent, MPS also parted ways with its comptroller and CFO.
“We are really rebuilding the personnel and staff of the finance department. That is what’s critical, is having the right people in the right seats doing the work,” she said. “Also critical is making sure that you have the right controls in place. The audit findings found that we did not have proper controls in place and now we have those proper controls in place and when we find things we put new SOPs in place and that is what any business does.”
Identifying that shortfall, though painful, was the result of better accounting.
“Being three years behind in auditing means that you don’t have full sight on your actual revenues and expenditures. And so we have now full sight of our revenues and our expenditures and that’s why we were able to see this new deficit of $46 million,” she said. “And we still continue to work with DPI on those processes to make sure that every month we’re doing monthly to actuals and doing those accounting, reporting that to the board. In a way that is consumable to the public that they can understand.”
Jim Fitzhenry is the Ideas Lab Editor/Director of Community Engagement for the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel. Reach him at jfitzhen@gannett.com or 920-993-7154.
Finance
Psychological shift unfolds in soft Aussie housing market: ‘Vendors feel pressure’
Property markets move in cycles, and with interest rates rising and other pressures like high fuel costs, some markets are clearly slowing down. Many first-home buyers who have only ever seen markets going up are conditioned to think that when purchasing, competition is always intense and decisions need to be made quickly.
In those times, buyers often feel they need to act fast, stretch their budget and secure a property at almost any cost. But things have definitely changed.
In a softer market, the dynamic shifts. Properties take longer to sell, competition thins, and it’s the vendors who begin to feel pressure.
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For buyers who understand how to navigate that change, the balance of power quickly moves in their favour. The opportunity is not simply to buy at a lower price. It is to negotiate from a position of strength.
If that’s you right now, these are the key skills first-home buyers need to take advantage of in softer market conditions.
The most important shift in a soft market is psychological. In a rising market, buyers often feel like they are competing for limited opportunities. In a softer market, the opposite is true. There are more properties available, fewer active buyers and less urgency overall. This gives buyers options.
When buyers understand that they are not competing with multiple parties on every property, their decision-making improves. They are more willing to walk away, compare opportunities and avoid overpaying. Negotiation strength comes from not needing to transact immediately. When that pressure is removed, buyers are able to engage more strategically.
One of the most common mistakes first-home buyers make is continuing to apply strategies that only work in rising markets. Auction urgency is a clear example. In strong markets, auctions often attract multiple bidders and create competitive tension. In softer conditions, properties are more likely to pass in, shifting the process away from a public bidding environment into a private negotiation.
This is where leverage increases.
Private negotiations allow buyers to introduce conditions that protect their position. These may include finance clauses, longer settlement periods or price adjustments based on due diligence. Opportunities that are rarely available in competitive markets become standard in softer ones.
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