Connect with us

Finance

Gulke: What's Causing All the Volatility in Commodity and Financial Markets?

Published

on

For the week, May corn was 1¼¢ higher, December corn lost ½¢ and May soybeans dropped 11¢. November soybeans lost 8½¢, May soybean meal was up $11.30 per short ton and May soybean oil fell 300 points. May Chicago wheat was 11 ¼¢ lower, May Kansas City wheat was up 7½¢ and May Minneapolis wheat lost 5¼¢. December cotton was down 253 points and June DOW futures lost 963 points. 

It was another interesting week in the markets with increasing volatility in the commodity complex and the stock indices. Where is all the volatility coming from?  Jerry Gulke, president of the Gulke Group points to a couple possible clues. 

The April WASDE was a disappointment as Gulke says USDA failed to make some key adjustments to the supply and demand tables. First, the 50-million-bushel drop in U.S. corn ending stocks failed to account for the disappearance in the Quarterly Stocks Report. 

However, USDA also kicked the can down the road on the South American crop leaving Brazil corn production at 124 million metric tons, 13 million above Conab.  They also left Brazil soybean production at 155 million metric tons verses Conab’s 146.5 million.

Advertisement

USDA punted on Argentina’s soybean production leaving it at 50 mmt. The agency did lower their corn estimate by 1 mmt, but the Rosario Grain Exchange cut the crop 6.5 mmt to only 50.5 million.

Gulke says this is a big divergence. 

“Some people are going there that are boots on the ground and are saying yes, we have a problem in Brazil and now we have issues in Argentina with disease and insects,” he says. “At some point in time, we’re going to find out that I’m wrong, other people that are commenting on it now are wrong and USDA was right. Or USDA is going to have to bite the bullet somehow and say yeah, the crop turned out to not be as good as we first thought.”

So, when will USDA rectify this discrepancy? Gulke says it’s hard to know, but USDA officials have told him they aren’t in the business of speculating. So, he thinks they’re scared to make a prediction without hard evidence.

However, he says, if he is right, “What did it cost the American farmer? Because price discovery wouldn’t have pushed the prices to lows we saw at the end of February.”  

Advertisement

Gulke says volatility is also coming from the plunge in the stock market which is down nearly 1,900 points the past two weeks. He says the charts were providing sell signals or a correction back in February, and now it is finally coming to fruition. The uncertainty of a Middle East war and thoughts that interest rates will stay higher for longer due to stubborn inflation are also factors. 

As a result, traders and investors are liquidating their positions, and that is spilling over to the commodity sector. It is part of the reason the grains rallied Friday and the livestock, metals and other softs melted down. 

So how much of a correction does Gulke expect in the Dow Jones Industrial Average? He says there is likely more to come as nervous investors take profits and either head to the sidelines or look for other bargains or safe havens in the market. 

“Any time you have a move higher 50% of the time, you’re going to get a 50% correction, 60% of the time you’re going to get a 38% correction and a third of the time you’re going to get a two-thirds correction,” he says.

With money coming out of the stock market, will it look for a new home? Could it move into the grain markets and produce a rally and fund short covering? Gulke says it might be too early to tell. 

Advertisement

 

Continue Reading
Click to comment

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

This site uses Akismet to reduce spam. Learn how your comment data is processed.

Finance

Fayette schools face accounting concerns as outside reviews continue

Published

on

Fayette schools face accounting concerns as outside reviews continue

LEXINGTON, Ky. — As the school district works to rectify potentially decades of inaccurate accounting, two finance employees with Fayette County Public Schools are on paid leave. At the same time, two external reviews continue for Kentucky’s second-largest school district.


What You Need To Know

  • Two Fayette County Public Schools finance employees are on paid administrative leave
  • District leaders say accounting inaccuracies and improper practices may date back to 2008
  • Two outside reviews are underway, including one by the auditor of public accounts
  • The district may seek a short-term loan to cover expenses until property tax revenue is collected


FCPS Superintendent Demetrus Liggins said he’s been made aware of troubling and deeply concerning information.

“I’ve spoken with several of our district’s financial advisor and our external audit firm and have conducted our that’s conducted our routine audit. and those conversations have also revealed issues that I was unaware of,” Liggins said.

One review is from accounting firm Weaver and Tidwell, hired by the district, and another, which Liggins said he requested, is being conducted by the auditor of public accounts.

While those reviews are ongoing, and based on preliminary reporting, Liggins said he’s been informed of both inaccuracies and improper accounting practices that date back to 2008.

Advertisement

Last month, the district hired Kyna Koch, a former associate commissioner of finance for the Kentucky Department of Education, as the interim chief financial officer.

Since taking on the task, she said she doesn’t have confidence in the numbers she’s been asked to review.

“Federal and state requirements may not have been followed, and our accounting procedures may not have been aligned with acceptable practices,” Koch said.

Koch said inaccuracies were found in revenue collection, record-keeping, invoicing, and that spending guidelines may not have been followed.

Now she’s helping set new measures, like additional reviews, to dig deeper and provide a clearer financial picture.

Advertisement

“It’s clear that these practices are sometimes nuanced and not easily identified through routine financial reports that are provided to the superintendent and the board. Some of these things would not have been readily apparent based on the information typically generated,” Koch said.

Koch is also recommending that the district get a short-term loan to cover expenditures until next fall’s property taxes are collected.

Though the district is not releasing names at this time, Liggins did comment on the status of some finance administrators.

“We currently have three administrators in our financial and accounting office. Two are on paid administrative leave, and one is on medical leave,” Koch said.

Those on paid administrative leave are pending an investigation.

Advertisement

Liggins said while they are still awaiting finalized reports from those outside audits, they’re aiming for accuracy and transparency in their next moves.

“As we continue this work, I’m committed to following the facts wherever they may lead, and whatever they may uncover, we’re only after the truth,” Liggins said.

Liggins was asked on Thursday whether property taxes would increase for the 2026-27 school year. He said they are not currently planning to ask the board to raise property taxes any more than they typically have in years past.

On Monday, Koch will present her latest findings to the board at its regularly scheduled finance meeting.

Koch also said the district plans to have a loan proposal ready as soon as next month.

Advertisement
Continue Reading

Finance

KCRHA board institutes hiring freeze, finance committee as audit suggests millions missing

Published

on

KCRHA board institutes hiring freeze, finance committee as audit suggests millions missing

The King County Regional Homelessness Authority’s governing board approved a hiring freeze on Friday and ordered a finance committee review after an audit revealed millions of dollars in unaccounted taxpayer funds.

The vote came late Friday afternoon amid growing calls to disband the agency.

RELATED: City, county councilmembers move to dissolve KCRHA after audit flags $13M unaccounted for

KCRHA CEO Kelly Kinnison told the board there are “no missing funds,” despite the audit indicating about $13 million could not be accounted for. The report also found the agency lacked a chief financial officer, had missing receipts, and allowed purchasing card use with little oversight.

Mike Nurse, a certified fraud examiner with Clark Nuber, detailed the independent audit during a presentation that lasted more than an hour. He said the agency’s structure as a “pass-through entity” for the city and county, combined with weak internal controls, contributed to financial issues, including a negative cash balance and funds that may not be recoverable.

Advertisement

The governing board is co-chaired by King County Executive Girmay Zahilay and Seattle Mayor Katie Wilson. Wilson attended the meeting remotely and briefly addressed the board, reiterating earlier comments that all options remain on the table.

Wilson declined to comment when approached by a reporter earlier Friday.

Zahilay led much of the discussion, and the board unanimously approved the finance committee review. Wilson’s office, represented by Deputy Mayor Brian Surratt, supported the measure, including the addition of a hiring freeze.

PREVIOUS COVERAGE: $13M missing: Seattle leaders call attention to ‘egregious’ regional homelessness audit

Just 24 hours earlier, Seattle City Councilmember Maritza Rivera and King County Councilmember Rod Dembowski announced they were sponsoring a joint resolution to eliminate the KCRHA and unwind the agency over the course of the next year.

Advertisement

Zahilay did not go that far when asked about the possibility on Friday.

“This is not a light switch that can be turned on and off,” he said. “We have to think through all of the ramifications. There are contracts, there is federal funding at risk, there are people’s jobs, and most importantly, we don’t want to disrupt services.”

Seattle City Councilmember Alexis Mercedes Rinck, who previously worked as a director at KCRHA, now serves on the governing board. Speaking after the meeting, she said she left the agency three years ago in part because of concerns about its operations.

“I left three years ago primarily because of the dysfunction I was witnessing within the agency,” Mercedes Rinck said.

She said her focus now is on understanding the full scope of the situation.

Advertisement

“My focus in this moment is ensuring that we really sort out what the truth is in this matter,” she said.

Asked whether it is time to dissolve KCRHA, she urged caution.

“It’s important that we don’t take any knee-jerk reactions when we’re talking about immediate changes,” she said.

Continue Reading

Finance

Michigan Capital One customers may get get money in lawsuit settlement

Published

on

Michigan Capital One customers may get get money in lawsuit settlement
play

Capital One has settled a lawsuit that claimed the company deceived customers by creating two savings accounts with very similar names, but with different interest rates, making owners of the lower-paying accounts eligible for cash payments as part of a $425 million settlement.

Months after the court rejected an initial settlement agreement in the case in 2025, a U.S. District Court judge issued final approval of a new settlement on Monday, April 20, USA TODAY reported.

Advertisement

Michigan Attorney General Dana Nessel joined a bipartisan coalition of 17 other attorneys general in 2025 who said the original proposal cheated customers, who lost more than $2 billion in unpaid interest.

Capital One denied the claims in the lawsuit and any allegations of wrongdoing. Both sides ultimately agreed to a settlement to avoid going to trial, USA TODAY reported.

Payments are expected to be sent around July 21, according to the settlement website.

What to know:

What is the Capital One settlement about?

The class action lawsuit against Capital One relates to two types of savings accounts the company has offered: 360 Savings and 360 Performance Savings.

Advertisement

The plaintiffs alleged that the two types of savings accounts are identical, except for the interest rate Capital One paid on them.

According to the filings, Capital One offered the 360 Savings accounts from 2013 to 2019, which is when it began offering 360 Performance Savings.

Though the company stopped offering 360 Savings accounts to customers, Capital One continued to service the existing accounts under the program, the filings said.

The lawsuit alleged that since 2019, Capital One has paid a higher interest rate on 360 Performance Savings than it paid on 360 Savings, despite the two accounts being otherwise identical.

Advertisement

Capital One marketed its 360 Savings accounts as “high interest” accounts with “one of the nation’s best savings rates” that would earn its customers more than an average savings account, Nessel said in a 2025 release. However, while interest rates rose nationwide beginning in 2022, Capital One kept the interest rates for its 360 Savings accounts artificially low. Instead, Capital One created “360 Performance Savings,” a nearly identical type of savings account that provided much higher interest rates than 360 Savings.

In September 2019, the initial New York lawsuit said, “the 360 Performance Savings interest rate was 1.90%, while the 360 Savings rate was 1.0%. This disparity grew even wider over time. Capital One lowered the 360 Savings rate to 0.30% in December 2020, and kept it frozen there during a period of rising interest rates nationwide. At one point, the 360 Performance Savings rate was 4.35%, more than 14 times higher than the 360 Savings rate.”

As a result, the plaintiffs alleged that Capital One deceptively marketed the 360 Savings account and concealed interest rate disparities. The company denied the claims.

Who’s eligible for payment in the Capital One settlement?

The settlement class, or the group eligible for payment, includes anyone who maintained a Capital One 360 Savings account at any point between Sept. 18, 2019, and June 16, 2025.

How much money can you get from Capital One settlement?

Each member of the settlement class will receive an individualized payment.

Advertisement

The total will first be calculated based on the amount of interest the account holder would have earned if the account were receiving the same interest rate as a 360 Performance Savings account.

The remaining settlement fund after deducting those costs and expenses will then be split among recipients based on their individual amounts, according to the settlement website.

Do you have to file a claim in the Capital One settlement?

No, you don’t need to file a claim to receive a payment in the Capital One settlement. All eligible members will receive their payment automatically.

Payments are expected to be sent around July 21, according to the settlement website.

Advertisement
Continue Reading
Advertisement

Trending