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Gulke: What's Causing All the Volatility in Commodity and Financial Markets?

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For the week, May corn was 1¼¢ higher, December corn lost ½¢ and May soybeans dropped 11¢. November soybeans lost 8½¢, May soybean meal was up $11.30 per short ton and May soybean oil fell 300 points. May Chicago wheat was 11 ¼¢ lower, May Kansas City wheat was up 7½¢ and May Minneapolis wheat lost 5¼¢. December cotton was down 253 points and June DOW futures lost 963 points. 

It was another interesting week in the markets with increasing volatility in the commodity complex and the stock indices. Where is all the volatility coming from?  Jerry Gulke, president of the Gulke Group points to a couple possible clues. 

The April WASDE was a disappointment as Gulke says USDA failed to make some key adjustments to the supply and demand tables. First, the 50-million-bushel drop in U.S. corn ending stocks failed to account for the disappearance in the Quarterly Stocks Report. 

However, USDA also kicked the can down the road on the South American crop leaving Brazil corn production at 124 million metric tons, 13 million above Conab.  They also left Brazil soybean production at 155 million metric tons verses Conab’s 146.5 million.

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USDA punted on Argentina’s soybean production leaving it at 50 mmt. The agency did lower their corn estimate by 1 mmt, but the Rosario Grain Exchange cut the crop 6.5 mmt to only 50.5 million.

Gulke says this is a big divergence. 

“Some people are going there that are boots on the ground and are saying yes, we have a problem in Brazil and now we have issues in Argentina with disease and insects,” he says. “At some point in time, we’re going to find out that I’m wrong, other people that are commenting on it now are wrong and USDA was right. Or USDA is going to have to bite the bullet somehow and say yeah, the crop turned out to not be as good as we first thought.”

So, when will USDA rectify this discrepancy? Gulke says it’s hard to know, but USDA officials have told him they aren’t in the business of speculating. So, he thinks they’re scared to make a prediction without hard evidence.

However, he says, if he is right, “What did it cost the American farmer? Because price discovery wouldn’t have pushed the prices to lows we saw at the end of February.”  

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Gulke says volatility is also coming from the plunge in the stock market which is down nearly 1,900 points the past two weeks. He says the charts were providing sell signals or a correction back in February, and now it is finally coming to fruition. The uncertainty of a Middle East war and thoughts that interest rates will stay higher for longer due to stubborn inflation are also factors. 

As a result, traders and investors are liquidating their positions, and that is spilling over to the commodity sector. It is part of the reason the grains rallied Friday and the livestock, metals and other softs melted down. 

So how much of a correction does Gulke expect in the Dow Jones Industrial Average? He says there is likely more to come as nervous investors take profits and either head to the sidelines or look for other bargains or safe havens in the market. 

“Any time you have a move higher 50% of the time, you’re going to get a 50% correction, 60% of the time you’re going to get a 38% correction and a third of the time you’re going to get a two-thirds correction,” he says.

With money coming out of the stock market, will it look for a new home? Could it move into the grain markets and produce a rally and fund short covering? Gulke says it might be too early to tell. 

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Finance

Proximo Congress 2026: US Energy & Infrastructure Finance | Insights | Mayer Brown

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Proximo Congress 2026: US Energy & Infrastructure Finance | Insights | Mayer Brown

Mayer Brown is a proud sponsor of Proximo Congress 2026. This senior meeting of the US energy, infrastructure, and digital infrastructure finance community is shaped around the questions credit and investment committees are actually asking in 2026: how asset classes are converging, how risk is being priced in a recalibrated policy and geopolitical environment, and how public and private capital are being structured together to deliver projects at scale.

Mayer Brown has also been recognized for three separate awards which will be presented during the event. These awards include:

  • Proximo North America Transport Deal of the Year 2025 – SR 400 Peach Partners
  • Proximo North America Rail Deal of the Year 2025 – Brightline West
  • Proximo North America LNG Deal of the Year 2025 – Port Arthur LNG 2

For more information, visit the event website. 

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Finance

What are nonconforming mortgages and what are the risks?

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What are nonconforming mortgages and what are the risks?

If you have ever taken out a mortgage, you’ll know there are a lot of requirements to meet. You may need to put down a certain amount and have a debt-to-income ratio below a certain threshold. You may also run into limits on how much you can borrow or what sources of income the lender will count.

These rules do not apply to all mortgages — just to conforming mortgages, which is what the majority of borrowers take out. However, mortgage lenders are increasingly offering what are known as nonconforming loans, or mortgages that do not “comply with every one of the strict standards put in place after the housing crisis,” said The Wall Street Journal. While “still a small portion,” the “share of mortgages using alternative lending practices” has “doubled in size over the past three years.”

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Financial Stress Is Changing What Consumers Value in Credit Cards | PYMNTS.com

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Financial Stress Is Changing What Consumers Value in Credit Cards | PYMNTS.com

What U.S. consumers ask of their credit cards has changed. For financially stressed households, it has little to do with rewards.

As more households turn to credit cards to manage liquidity and cover everyday expenses, a new set of practical concerns is driving card behavior: Can the card help avoid a missed payment? Can it make balances easier to track? Can it provide enough visibility into available credit and upcoming obligations to help manage an uncertain month?

Those concerns are beginning to reorder what consumers value most in their credit card relationships.

That evidence is clear in “Winning Top of Wallet: How Credit Card Apps Shape Choice,” a PYMNTS Intelligence and Elan Credit Card report examining how consumers use mobile apps to manage spending, payments and engagement across their credit card portfolios. The report found 30% of consumers primarily use credit cards to build credit or extend purchasing power, while another 22% primarily use cards for cash flow management, together outweighing rewards-based usage.

The divide is more pronounced among financially stressed households. Among consumers living paycheck to paycheck and struggling to pay bills, 40% cited credit dependence as their primary reason for using credit cards. Just 11% pointed to rewards.

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For a growing share of consumers, credit cards are functioning less like discretionary spending products and more like liquidity management tools.

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What Matters Most

That evolution is also changing which app features matter most.

Among cash flow-focused consumers, 31% said scheduling payments or autopay encouraged them to spend more on a card, while 27% cited alerts and reminders. Credit-motivated consumers showed similarly high engagement with tools tied to available credit visibility and payment timing.

Rewards still influence spending behavior, particularly among financially stable households. Half of consumers who prioritize rewards said tracking or redeeming rewards through a mobile app encouraged them to spend more on the card.

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But the report suggests that financial stress changes the hierarchy of engagement. As household budgets tighten, rewards become less central than predictability, visibility and control.

That shift helps explain why mobile apps increasingly influence which cards become top of wallet.

Among credit-dependent consumers, 77% said the quality of a credit card app influences which card they use most often. Credit-dependent consumers also reported the highest app adoption levels, with 77% using their primary card’s app regularly or occasionally.

The competition, in other words, is no longer simply about card acquisition. It is about becoming the card consumers rely on to navigate everyday financial management.

Digital Experience Becomes a Financial Retention Tool

The report also suggests that digital experience increasingly shapes retention risk.

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Nearly 1 in 4 cardholders said a poor app or digital experience contributed to reduced card use. Among Gen Z consumers, that figure climbed to 45%.

At the same time, 7 in 10 cardholders said app quality influences which card becomes their primary card, underscoring how mobile interfaces are becoming embedded directly into consumer payment behavior.

For issuers, the implications extend beyond app design.

Consumers living paycheck to paycheck hold nearly as many credit cards as financially stable households, meaning financially stressed consumers are not disengaging from credit entirely. Instead, they are becoming more selective about which cards feel easiest to manage and most useful during periods of financial pressure.

Rewards and promotional offers still matter, particularly among affluent and financially stable consumers. But for a growing segment of households, the most valuable card may be the one that reduces uncertainty around balances, payment timing and available liquidity.

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In a crowded multi-card market, financial visibility itself is becoming part of the product.

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