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Gulke: What's Causing All the Volatility in Commodity and Financial Markets?

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For the week, May corn was 1¼¢ higher, December corn lost ½¢ and May soybeans dropped 11¢. November soybeans lost 8½¢, May soybean meal was up $11.30 per short ton and May soybean oil fell 300 points. May Chicago wheat was 11 ¼¢ lower, May Kansas City wheat was up 7½¢ and May Minneapolis wheat lost 5¼¢. December cotton was down 253 points and June DOW futures lost 963 points. 

It was another interesting week in the markets with increasing volatility in the commodity complex and the stock indices. Where is all the volatility coming from?  Jerry Gulke, president of the Gulke Group points to a couple possible clues. 

The April WASDE was a disappointment as Gulke says USDA failed to make some key adjustments to the supply and demand tables. First, the 50-million-bushel drop in U.S. corn ending stocks failed to account for the disappearance in the Quarterly Stocks Report. 

However, USDA also kicked the can down the road on the South American crop leaving Brazil corn production at 124 million metric tons, 13 million above Conab.  They also left Brazil soybean production at 155 million metric tons verses Conab’s 146.5 million.

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USDA punted on Argentina’s soybean production leaving it at 50 mmt. The agency did lower their corn estimate by 1 mmt, but the Rosario Grain Exchange cut the crop 6.5 mmt to only 50.5 million.

Gulke says this is a big divergence. 

“Some people are going there that are boots on the ground and are saying yes, we have a problem in Brazil and now we have issues in Argentina with disease and insects,” he says. “At some point in time, we’re going to find out that I’m wrong, other people that are commenting on it now are wrong and USDA was right. Or USDA is going to have to bite the bullet somehow and say yeah, the crop turned out to not be as good as we first thought.”

So, when will USDA rectify this discrepancy? Gulke says it’s hard to know, but USDA officials have told him they aren’t in the business of speculating. So, he thinks they’re scared to make a prediction without hard evidence.

However, he says, if he is right, “What did it cost the American farmer? Because price discovery wouldn’t have pushed the prices to lows we saw at the end of February.”  

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Gulke says volatility is also coming from the plunge in the stock market which is down nearly 1,900 points the past two weeks. He says the charts were providing sell signals or a correction back in February, and now it is finally coming to fruition. The uncertainty of a Middle East war and thoughts that interest rates will stay higher for longer due to stubborn inflation are also factors. 

As a result, traders and investors are liquidating their positions, and that is spilling over to the commodity sector. It is part of the reason the grains rallied Friday and the livestock, metals and other softs melted down. 

So how much of a correction does Gulke expect in the Dow Jones Industrial Average? He says there is likely more to come as nervous investors take profits and either head to the sidelines or look for other bargains or safe havens in the market. 

“Any time you have a move higher 50% of the time, you’re going to get a 50% correction, 60% of the time you’re going to get a 38% correction and a third of the time you’re going to get a two-thirds correction,” he says.

With money coming out of the stock market, will it look for a new home? Could it move into the grain markets and produce a rally and fund short covering? Gulke says it might be too early to tell. 

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Your Savings Account Is Failing: 3 Shifts to Reclaim Your Wealth

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Your Savings Account Is Failing: 3 Shifts to Reclaim Your Wealth

You’ve done everything right, and you’re still losing ground. That’s the sentiment many are feeling, as rising inflation takes bigger bites out of your paychecks when you pump gas, pay your electric bill or go to the grocery store.

It used to be that you could turn to a high-yield savings account to outpace it. Yet, with inflation at 4.20% and not likely to cool soon, most savings accounts don’t earn returns keeping pace with inflation.

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Hong Kong vows stronger exchange with reforms, bond futures and gold push

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Hong Kong vows stronger exchange with reforms, bond futures and gold push
Hong Kong is pressing ahead with an overhaul of listing rules and the launch of new product initiatives, the city’s deputy finance chief said on Friday as the bourse operator marked 26 years as a publicly traded company.
Speaking at the anniversary ceremony of Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing (HKEX), Deputy Financial Secretary Michael Wong Wai-lun outlined reforms under review, including optimising weighted voting rights, easing secondary listings by overseas issuers, and expanding flexibility for biotech and specialist technology companies.

“We will continue to work tirelessly and proactively to make Hong Kong even better and stronger as a leading international financial centre,” Wong said.

The consultation period closed last month, and HKEX was now reviewing feedback before finalising the measures, he added.

Wong also welcomed the forthcoming launch of five-year mainland Chinese government bond futures, saying the contract would provide efficient risk-management tools and reinforce Hong Kong’s role as the world’s leading offshore renminbi hub.

He said Hong Kong was building a commodities ecosystem, using gold as a strategic entry point, with plans for expanded storage and refinery capacity and the reactivation of a US dollar gold futures contract.

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S&P Global improves outlook on city of Houston’s finances | Houston Public Media

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S&P Global improves outlook on city of Houston’s finances | Houston Public Media

Dominic Anthony Walsh / Houston Public Media

Houston Mayor John Whitmire speaks about his proposed budget on May 5, 2026.

One of the “Big Three” credit ratings agencies improved its outlook on the city of Houston’s financial position on Thursday, two weeks after city officials approved major reforms to the city’s revenue flow.

In a news release announcing the “stable” outlook, the agency said the city “made substantial progress in materially reducing its budget gap … through various structural changes.”

S&P Global lowered the city’s outlook in 2024 amid rising public safety costs tied to the more than $1 billion blockbuster settlement with the firefighters’ union, which included immediate backpay and hiked salaries by more than 30% over the five-year agreement. The “negative” outlook signaled the possibility of a credit downgrade, which would raise the city’s borrowing costs.

This year, Houston Mayor John Whitmire’s administration redirected about $100 million in revenue from the city’s water and wastewater utility to the $3 billion general fund, which supports most departments including police and fire. At the same time, the administration moved the more than $100 million solid waste department out of the general fund and into the utility while adopting a $5 monthly fee for garbage customers.

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Altogether, the changes essentially erased the projected deficit for this fiscal year, which runs through June 2027.

Steven David, Whitmire’s chief operations officer, said the improved outlook is “just a validation of the work that Mayor Whitmire has been doing for the past two-and-a-half years.”

“If fiscal stability is a house, we’ve laid the foundation with this fiscal year, and it’s good to see that S&P is recognizing that,” he said.

S&P’s statement included a note of caution. The city’s budget deficit has routinely ballooned beyond what was planned.

In 2026, the administration expected a gap between revenue and spending of about $70 million. The actual deficit exceeded $170 million, although the city’s critical fund balance remained on target.

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“If these deviations from the city’s budget continue, it could weaken our view of the city’s budgetary practices and overall reserves, aligning them more closely with those of lower-rated peers,” the agency said.

City Controller Chris Hollins — Houston’s elected financial official and a vocal critic of Whitmire’s financial policies — said the warnings “show we’re not out of the woods.”

The other “Big Three” credit ratings agencies have not yet announced changes. Fitch maintained a negative outlook, first assigned in 2024, while Moody’s outlook remained stable.

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