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Finance Ministry officials to 'Post': Moody's rating drop was premature, a step too far

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Finance Ministry officials to 'Post': Moody's rating drop was premature, a step too far

Ratings agency Moody’s “went one or two steps too far” and were “very conservative” in their downgrade of Israel’s rating late last month, senior officials within the Finance Ministry’s Accountant General Department told The Jerusalem Post.

“We respect Moody’s, and the government should listen carefully and address the relevant comments. However, our professional stance is that, at the very least, Moody’s has taken [it] one notch too far at this time,” they said.

The downgrade dropped Israel by two notches, from A2 to Baa1—the country’s lowest score ever—and maintained a negative outlook for its rating.

“A major part of what the credit rating should represent is […] the ability of the country to repay its foreign currency debt,” the officials explained, adding that Israel’s “ability to repay foreign currency is very strong.”

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Israel has had a surplus of more than 5% in the current account for 20 years, the officials said, adding that this is “fairly structural,” as the country exports more than it imports typically.

A Moody’s sign on the 7 World Trade Center tower is photographed in New York August 2, 2011. (credit: REUTERS/MIKE SEGAR)

They added that the Bank of Israel also holds “the highest ever reserve of foreign currency,” which is nearly four times as high as the external debt, showing Israel’s strong ability to repay foreign debt.

The officials said that senior economists believe that, in some sense, Moody’s treated a “worst-case scenario” as the “main-case scenario.”

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This means that they made the assumption that “the country’s economic recovery will be very long and that the debt-to-GDP ratio will grow substantially.”

Officials believe scenario is ‘exaggerated’

While this scenario is legitimate, “we think it is exaggerated,” the officials told The Jerusalem Post, adding that they think it is premature to make the assumptions made in Moody’s base case.

“As long as there is a good and responsible budget here that is aimed at growth, and the security situation improves, we can expect a more rapid rebound in the economy.”


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Tel Aviv University Prof. Dan Ben-David, who heads the socioeconomic research center Shoresh Institution, highlighted the uncertainty surrounding Israel’s economy despite the confidence projected by Finance Ministry officials.

“Just a glance at last week’s major revision by [Israel’s] Central Bureau of Statistics – its third downward revision of GDP – gives a pretty good idea about how little we actually know with regard to the actual severity of the situation, which is continuously being revised downward,” he said.

“We are in mid-October, and the government is only now beginning to contemplate the budget for next year while our finance minister is MIA. Given his comments and areas of focus, that is probably for the better, as incredulous as that might seem given the gravity of the moment we are in.”

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Earlier this month, Bank of Israel Governor Professor Amir Yaron highlighted the importance Moody’s rating, which could impact Israel regardless of whether or not it was premature or exaggerated.

“It is important to pay attention and take the assessments of the rating agencies seriously, as they reflect the challenges and risks faced by the Israeli economy as the world sees it,” Yaron explained.



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Digitized Assets & Tokenized Finance Impact Report 2026 FII Institute Site

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Digitized Assets & Tokenized Finance Impact Report 2026 FII Institute Site

What if the global financial system could move at the speed of the internet unlocking trillions in value while expanding access to capital worldwide?

Developed in collaboration with Dante Disparte, Chief Strategy Officer and Head of Global Policy & Operations at Circle; Fred Thiel, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer of MARA, Inc.; and Ryan Hayward, Head of Digital Assets and Strategic Investments at Barclays, this report on digital assets and tokenized finance reveals how a rapidly emerging $16–30 trillion market is transforming traditional finance into a real-time, programmable, and borderless ecosystem.

It explores how the tokenization of real-world assets, the explosive growth of stablecoins processing over $30 trillion annually, and instant (T+0) settlement are redefining liquidity, reducing cross-border costs, and reshaping global investment flows. The report also highlights the critical role of financial inclusion, addressing a $330 billion SME financing gap alongside the rise of AI-driven transactions, energy-powered infrastructure, and evolving regulation that will ultimately determine who leads and who benefits in the next era of finance.

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Oil rollercoaster pushes prices higher as US-Iran talks raise questions

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Oil rollercoaster pushes prices higher as US-Iran talks raise questions

Brent crude (BZ=F) and West Texas Intermediate (CL=F) futures contracts marched higher on Tuesday morning, having plummeted more than 10% at one point in Monday’s trading session. Questions continue to swirl around the potential reopening of the Strait of Hormuz and an end to the conflict between Iran and the US and Israel.

Brent crude (BZ=F) gained 1.7% after the opening bell in London, to around the $97.50 per barrel mark. West Texas Intermediate (CL=F) also rose 1.7% to $89.55 per barrel.

The moves come amid conflicting reports about talks between Iran and the US to end fighting. On Monday, president Donald Trump delayed strikes on Iranian power plants, having given Iran a deadline to restore trade through the Strait of Hormuz, saying Washington had productive conversations with Tehran.

But Tehran has since denied that it has been in touch with US negotiators, accusing Washington of price manipulation.

On Sunday night, Trump and prime minister Keir Starmer held a 20-minute phone call about the situation.

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“They agreed that reopening the Strait of Hormuz was essential to ensure stability in the global energy market,” a Downing Street spokesperson said.

On Saturday, Trump gave Iran a 48-hour deadline to reopen the Strait — a measure set to expire shortly before midnight UK time on Monday.

In a Truth Social post, Trump wrote: “If Iran doesn’t FULLY OPEN, WITHOUT THREAT, the Strait of Hormuz, within 48 hours from this exact point in time, the United States of America will hit and obliterate their various POWER PLANTS, STARTING WITH THE BIGGEST ONE FIRST!”

Yesterday, Iran’s defence council said in a statement that the “only way for non-hostile countries” to pass through Strait of Hormuz is “coordination with Iran”.

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Iran issues its largest-ever currency denomination as accelerating inflation ravages a financial sector deemed a ‘Ponzi scheme’ even before the war | Fortune

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Iran issues its largest-ever currency denomination as accelerating inflation ravages a financial sector deemed a ‘Ponzi scheme’ even before the war | Fortune

Iran’s economy was already crashing before the U.S. and Israel launched a war against the Islamic republic three weeks ago, and the relentless bombing since then has wreaked even more havoc.

In fact, high inflation triggered mass protests in December and January, prompting the regime to massacre tens of thousands of its own citizens. President Donald Trump warned Tehran against further violence and began a military build-up that led to the current conflict.

Inflation has worsened and apparently is so bad now the government issued its largest-ever currency denomination: the 10 million rial note (equivalent to about $7).

The new currency went into circulation last week, according to the Financial Times, and comes just a month after the prior record holder, the 5 million rial, came out.

As prices continue to spiral higher while the war boosts demand for cash, long lines formed to withdraw the fresh banknotes, and supplies quickly ran out.

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Iran’s central bank said electronic payments are still the main methods for transactions, though the 10 million rial bill will “ensure public access to cash,” the FT reported.

But doubts about the viability of electronic payments have grown during the war as the U.S. and Israel target the regime’s levers of control.

In addition to bombing Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and Basij paramilitary forces, a data center for Bank Sepah was also hit on March 11. Sepah is the country’s largest bank and is responsible for paying salaries to the military and IRGC.

“Iran is already in the middle of a severe cash liquidity crisis,” Miad Maleki, a senior advisor at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies and a former Treasury Department official, said on X earlier this month. “As of Jan 2026, banks were running out of physical banknotes daily, with informal withdrawal caps of just $18–$30/day. Cash in circulation surged 49% YoY due to panic hoarding. The regime simply cannot pivot to cash payments, there isn’t enough physical currency in the system.”

Meanwhile, a currency collapse that began after last year’s U.S.-Israeli bombardment has fueled crippling inflation. The rial lost 60% of its value in the months after the 12-day war, and food inflation soared to 64% by October. It accelerated further to 105% by February, vaulting overall inflation to 47.5%.

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The exchange rate fell as low as 1.66 million rials per $1 last month, though it strengthened to about 1.5 million rials as the U.S. temporarily lifted sanctions on Iranian oil.

Heightened demand for cash further stresses a financial system that was considered dubious even before the current war started three weeks ago.

The failure of Ayandeh Bank late last year forced the regime to fold it into a state-run lender, underscoring how fragile the sector was as bad loans piled up to politically connected cronies.

“This was largely theater. In reality, Iran’s entire banking system is insolvent, its balance sheets sustained by fiction rather than assets,” Siamak Namazi, who was a U.S. hostage in Iran from 2015 to 2023, wrote in a report for the Middle East Institute in January.

During his captivity, he learned from imprisoned former officials and business elites that politically connected borrowers bribed assessors to inflate the value of properties, which were used to obtain massive loans.

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Instead of repaying the loans, borrowers just gave their properties to the bank, which sold them to other banks at a paper profit, according to Namazi. Those banks knew the properties were overvalued “garbage,” but played along in the scheme by dumping their own toxic assets in exchange and booking fictitious gains.

“The result is a closed-loop Ponzi scheme, sustained by mutual deception and regulatory complicity,” he added. “This practice has metastasized over the past 15 years and is far more extensive than this simplified description suggests. And this is only the banking system. Much of the rest of Iran’s economy is afflicted by similarly entrenched corruption and mismanagement.”

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