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European markets often soar in December, but what’s behind the rally?

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European markets often soar in December, but what’s behind the rally?

There’s something about December that seems to charm equity markets into a year-end flourish.

For decades, investors have noted how the final month of the calendar tends to bring tidings of green screens and positive returns, fuelling what has become known as the Santa Claus rally.

But behind the festive metaphor lies a consistent, data-backed pattern.

Over the past four decades, the S&P 500 has gained in December about 74% of the time, with an average monthly return of 1.44% –– second only to November.

This seasonal cheer is echoed across European markets, with some indices showing even stronger performances.

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Since its inception in 1987, the EURO STOXX 50, the region’s blue-chip benchmark, has posted an average December gain of 1.87%. That makes the Christmas period the second-best month of the year after November’s 1.95%.

More striking, however, is its winning frequency. December closes in positive territory 71% of the time — higher than any other month.

The best December for the index came in 1999, when it surged 13.68%, while the worst was in 2002, when it fell 10.2%.

Rally gathers steam in late December

Zooming in on country-level indices further reinforces the seasonal trend.

The DAX, Germany’s flagship index, has shown an average December return of 2.18% over the past 40 years, trailing only April’s 2.43%. It finishes the month higher 73% of the time, again tying with April for the best track record.

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France’s CAC 40 follows a similar pattern, gaining on average 1.57% in December with a 70% win rate, also ranking it among the top three months.

Spain’s IBEX 35 and Italy’s FTSE MIB are more moderate but still show consistent strength, with December gains of 1.12% and 1.13% respectively.

But the magic of December doesn’t usually kick off at the start of the month. Instead, the real momentum tends to build in the second half.

According to data from Seasonax, the EURO STOXX 50 posts a 2.12% average return from 15 December through year-end, rising 76% of the time.

The DAX performs similarly, gaining 1.87% on average with a 73% win rate, while the CAC 40 shows even stronger second-half returns of 1.95%, ending positive in 79% of cases.

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What’s behind the rally? It’s not just Christmas spirit

So what exactly drives this December seasonal phenomenon? Part of the answer lies in fund managers’ behaviour.

Christoph Geyer, an analyst at Seasonax, believes the rally is closely tied to the behaviour of institutional investors. As the year draws to a close, many fund managers make final portfolio adjustments to lock in performance figures that will be reported to clients and shareholders.

This so-called “price maintenance” often leads to increased buying, especially of stocks that have already done well or are poised to benefit from short-term momentum.

This behavioural pattern gains importance in years when indices such as the DAX trade within a sideways range — as has been the case since May this year. A sideways market is one where asset prices fluctuate within a tight range, lacking a clear trend.

According to Geyer, a breakout from this sideways range for the DAX appears increasingly likely as December kicks in.

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From mid-November to early January, historical patterns suggest a favourable outcome, with a ratio of 34 positive years versus 12 negative for the German index — and average gains exceeding 6% in the positive years.

While past performance does not guarantee future returns, December’s track record across major global and European indices provides a compelling narrative for investors.

In short, December’s strength is not just about festive optimism. It’s a convergence of seasonal statistics, institutional dynamics, and technical positioning.

Disclaimer: This information does not constitute financial advice, always do your own research to ensure investments are right for your specific circumstances. We are a journalistic website and aim to provide the best guidance from experts. If you rely on the information on this page, then you do so entirely at your own risk.

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Car finance saga: Millions of motorists to find out how they will be compensated

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Car finance saga: Millions of motorists to find out how they will be compensated

Millions of motorists who were mis-sold a car loan will find out how they will be compensated, as the finance watchdog shares its final plans for an industry-wide scheme.

Final decisions on the long-awaited programme will be published by the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) on Monday afternoon.

The regulator set out draft plans last year but it is likely to make several changes after receiving more than 1,000 responses to its consultation.

Under the latest proposals, the scheme will cover car finance agreements taken out between April 6 2007 and November 1 2024.

The FCA estimated that around 14 million deals, or 44% of all those made since 2007, were unfair and therefore eligible for compensation.

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Consumers were estimated to be compensated an average of £700 per agreement, but it will be more or less depending on individual cases.

This was expected to come at a total cost of £11 billion to the industry, including the total payouts and the operational costs of running the scheme.

Craig Tebbutt, a financial health expert for Equifax UK, said: “It has previously been estimated that average compensation levels could be in the region of £700 per agreement but the final details around the scale, scope and timelines are expected to be confirmed on Monday.

“However, there is nothing to stop consumers checking their paperwork now and getting their details ready in the meantime.”

He said research by the credit reporting firm found that “many consumers don’t know how to check their eligibility and expect the process to be a hassle, with old or missing paperwork being a real barrier”.

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Equifax has launched a car finance checker within its new app that lets people see a list of their past agreements and copy the details, with motorists encouraged to send a complaint to their lender using a template on the FCA’s website if they think they’re eligible for a payout.

Lenders and car finance providers had been challenging the FCA’s proposals with some raising concerns that the expected amount of compensation is too high and does not accurately reflect what customers lost.

On the other side, some consumer groups and MPs have argued that many motorists will be short-changed under the current plans.

The FCA said millions of motorists could receive compensation in 2026 (Jacob King/PA) · Jacob King

The FCA has already announced some changes that it is making to the process since the proposals were unveiled last year.

This includes giving lenders more time to contact motor finance customers from when the scheme is officially launched.

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But it is also aiming to streamline the process by allowing those due redress to accept it immediately without waiting for a final determination.

It thinks that this means million of people would receive compensation in 2026.

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Abacus Global CEO on record 2025 growth – ICYMI

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Abacus Global CEO on record 2025 growth – ICYMI
Abacus Global CEO on record 2025 growth – ICYMI Proactive uses images sourced from Shutterstock

Abacus Global Management (NYSE:ABX) earlier this week reported record-setting financial and operational performance for 2025, highlighting strong momentum in the rapidly expanding life settlements market.

CEO Jay Jackson said the company delivered more than 100% year-over-year growth across key financial metrics, including EBITDA, adjusted net income, and gross results. He emphasized that beyond headline figures, the underlying operational activity demonstrated the strength of the platform.

Jackson noted that Abacus acquired more than 1,300 life insurance policies during the year and generated nearly $180 million in realized gains. The company also sold over 1,000 policies, underscoring the liquidity and scalability of its model. He added that more than $600 million in capital was deployed, enabling over 1,100 seniors to access value from previously illiquid assets.

“We’re helping clients find liquidity in assets they didn’t know had it — their life insurance policies,” Jackson said.

Jackson explained that life insurance policies are increasingly being recognized as a viable financial asset class.

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Looking ahead, Jackson pointed to a substantial growth runway, noting that the total addressable market is approximately $14 trillion, while Abacus has only penetrated a small fraction of that opportunity. He suggested that ongoing macroeconomic uncertainty is driving investor demand for uncorrelated assets, positioning life settlements as an attractive alternative.

As a key catalyst for future growth, the company recently completed a minority investment in Manning & Napier, a long-established wealth and asset management firm. Jackson said the partnership provides access to more than 3,400 retail clients, many of whom may not yet be aware of the liquidity potential within their life insurance holdings.

He indicated that this strategic relationship could enhance origination volumes and contribute to continued record performance into 2026.

“We’re one of the largest originators, and our record numbers are an indicator of what’s coming next,” he said.

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New Funding Models Needed As Global Health Faces Growing Financial Strain – Health Policy Watch

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New Funding Models Needed As Global Health Faces Growing Financial Strain – Health Policy Watch
Christoph Benn (left) and Patrick Silborn

Global health is facing a funding crisis. Aid is shrinking, debt is rising, and the needs are only increasing. According to Christoph Benn of the Joep Lange Institute and Patrik Silborn of UNICEF Afghanistan, health systems will need to fundamentally rethink how they finance and sustain care.

On a recent episode of the Global Health Matters podcast, host Gary Aslanyan was joined by these two experts, who said “innovative finance” has become central to discussions on sustaining health systems.

Benn said that while the term is widely used, few agree on what it actually means. He described it as a “spectrum” of approaches, ranging from philanthropic grants and conditional funding to private-sector investment models that expect financial returns.

“It has frustrated us deeply that so many people are talking about innovative finance, but very few actually know what they’re talking about,” Benn said.

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Silborn emphasised that these mechanisms should not be treated as one-size-fits-all solutions. Instead, financing models must be designed around specific problems whether that means raising new funds, improving efficiency, or linking payments to measurable outcomes.

Drawing on his experience in Rwanda, Silborn described how a results-based funding model tied disbursements directly to performance, helping the country to maintain progress against major diseases despite reduced funding.

Both experts stressed that private-sector engagement requires a clear understanding of incentives.

“Private corporations are not charities,” Benn said. They can, however, contribute through marketing partnerships, technical expertise, or investment models that align financial returns with social outcomes.
Looking ahead, Benn pointed to targeted taxes and debt swaps as among the most scalable tools. Still, both warned that innovative finance is not a substitute for public responsibility.

“It only works when it is designed to solve real problems in specific contexts,” Benn said, underscoring that strong systems and governance remain essential to any lasting solution.

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Listen to the full episode >>

Read more about Global Health Matters podcasts on Health Policy Watch >>

Image Credits: Global Health Matters podcast.

Combat the infodemic in health information and support health policy reporting from the global South. Our growing network of journalists in Africa, Asia, Geneva and New York connect the dots between regional realities and the big global debates, with evidence-based, open access news and analysis. To make a personal or organisational contribution click here.

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