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DeepSeek sell-off reminds investors of the biggest earnings story holding up the stock market

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DeepSeek sell-off reminds investors of the biggest earnings story holding up the stock market

Monday’s swift sell-off in the markets serves as a reminder for not only what’s been the driving force of the bull market thus far, but also what investors have been expecting to come in 2025. It’s all about big tech earnings.

New developments from Chinese artificial intelligence DeepSeek sparked the rout as investor concerns over brewing competition in the AI space for Nvidia (NVDA) and other big tech names prompted pause in the US AI trade.

Nvidia stock dropped more than than 11%. Meanwhile fellow “Magnificent Seven” members Microsoft (MSFT), Alphabet (GOOGL,GOOG), Meta (META), Amazon (AMZN) and Tesla (TSLA) were all off 2% or more in early trading. Broadcom (AVGO), another large player in the AI space, was down more than 12%.

“When expectations are high, one skeptical headline can knock the market off its axis,” Ritholtz Wealth Management chief investment strategist Callie Cox wrote in a note on Monday. “That’s exactly what we’re seeing today.”

A slowdown in Big tech’s rapid earnings growth has been a risk to the market that strategists have been talking about for more than a year. With with index valuations near multi-decade highs and the 10 largest stocks comprising nearly 40% of the S&P 500, strategists have argued the rapid rally in stocks is increasingly on thin ice.

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But unlike other risks like higher interest rates or sticky inflation, there hasn’t been a clear story for why the exceptional Big Tech earnings growth story would collapse. For now, this weekend’s DeepSeek AI model launch appears to be a tangible reason for investors to question whether the high earnings expectations will truly follow through.

In 2024, Magnificent Seven earnings outperformed the rest of the S&P 500 index by 30 percentage points, per research from Goldman Sachs. And while that margin is expected to slow in the year ahead, causing some to call for a broadening out of stock market returns, big tech earnings growth remains a key pillar of the bull market thesis.

The “Magnificent Seven” stocks are expected to grow earnings by 21.7% in the fourth quarter compared to the 9.7% earnings growth projected for the other 493 tech stocks. The year-over-year growth rate for the “Magnificent Seven” is expected to slow in the first quarter, before accelerating once more to year-over-year earnings growth of more than 24% in the third quarter.

As Venu Krishna, head of US equity strategy at Barclays, pointed out in his 2025 outlook, given the large earnings growth expected for Big Tech throughout the year, the group is “likely to remain as critical of an EPS growth driver for the S&P 500 as the group was [in 2024].”

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Will SCOTUS campaign finance ruling yield big changes for parties? — Harvard Gazette

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Will SCOTUS campaign finance ruling yield big changes for parties? — Harvard Gazette

Fifty years ago, the U.S. Supreme Court struck down campaign spending limits in the landmark decision Buckley v. Valeo, finding the curbs violated First Amendment free-speech protections. Since then, several rulings, including the 2010 Citizens United case, which ended restrictions on election donations by corporations, nonprofits, and labor unions, have further loosened campaign finance regulations.

In this interview, which has been edited and condensed for length and clarity, Nicholas Stephanopoulos, Kirkland & Ellis Professor of Law at Harvard Law School, spoke about the recent ruling by the Supreme Court that lifted restrictions on how much money political parties can spend in coordination with candidates, its downside and potential upside, and its possible impact on the midterm elections.


Can you explain what the recent campaign finance ruling means? How is it going to affect political parties?

The recent decision is a not a huge blockbuster like some other campaign finance cases we’ve seen in recent years. That’s because the decision only involves limits on political parties’ coordinated expenditures with candidates, and that pool of money, both today and potentially in the future, is not enormous.

Before this ruling, parties could spend whatever they want, even before they could coordinate a lot of expenditures with candidates. Now they can just coordinate somewhat more. So, the stakes here were sort of moderate.

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The two things the decision means above all are these: On the negative side, it’ll be easier now for a corrupt donor [to skirt individual donation limits] to funnel more money to a candidate using a party as the conduit or the vehicle for that contribution. On the positive side, parties are permanent, important political institutions, and now somewhat more money might flow to parties instead of super PACs and dark money groups and other more problematic organizations.

Nicholas Stephanopoulos.

Harvard Law School

Justice Elena Kagan, who dissented from this ruling, said this decision would increase the likelihood of “political corruption.” Do you agree?

First of all, notice that Kagan isn’t challenging the fundamentals of campaign finance law. She’s not claiming that money isn’t speech. She’s not claiming that all campaign finance regulations should be upheld. She’s fully arguing within the current court’s doctrinal framework. She thinks that the law at issue is necessary to prevent corruption.

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Kagan points out that, with a little bit of bookkeeping, it should be fairly straightforward now for a donor to give effectively half a million dollars to a candidate channeled through a party, as opposed to the $7,000 the donor is allowed to give directly to the candidate.

With much bigger sums that can now be given through a party to a candidate, there’s the possibility of more quid pro quo corruption. A candidate isn’t likely to do very much in return for $7,000 but a candidate may do quite a bit more in return for $500,000. So I think we’ll see somewhat more corruption in politics as a result of today’s decision.

What’s the idea behind “money is speech,” which has been at the core of most campaign finance decisions since the 1970s?

The premise that money is speech, or at least it enables political speech, means that it can be covered by the First Amendment. That premise underlies all campaign finance doctrine since the 1970s.

It’s a controversial doctrine. Individual justices over the years have pointed out that money is not speech, and merely enabling speech is not the same thing as being speech itself. All campaign finance decisions since the 1970s have assumed that regulations of political funding involved the First Amendment because there’s a close enough connection to political speech, and even the progressive justices in the 1990s and 2000s still accepted that the First Amendment was involved here.

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The implication of fully endorsing the position that money isn’t speech is that all of these cases would quickly fall by the wayside. If money isn’t speech and there’s no First Amendment issue presented here, then Congress can regulate campaign finance however Congress wants to, without any possible First Amendment problem. But that view has never been the view of the majority of the court.

Can you compare the impact of this recent ruling to that of the 2010 Citizens United case?

Citizens United involved independent spending by corporations, by unions, and the court said that there’s no valid justification for limiting any independent campaign spending, whether it’s by candidates, rich individuals, parties, corporations, or unions.

The current case involves the somewhat less-explosive issue of coordinated expenditures. Citizens United was a sweeping decision, striking down a very important federal law and opening the door to huge new sums to be spent in politics. This decision isn’t like that. It doesn’t involve independent spending. It only involves one actor, political parties, not the whole range of actors. The stakes are a lot lower than the Citizens United case.

With this ruling, the Supreme Court overruled a 2001 decision, which upheld the same limits on coordinate expenditures with candidates. How do you explain that?

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The 2001 case was decided by the court when it was at its most pro-regulatory in the campaign finance context. What changed since 2001 is the composition of the court.

The critical change was when Sandra Day O’Connor retired in 2006, and Sam Alito replaced her. Alito has always been a skeptic of campaign finance regulations, whereas O’Connor, especially toward the end of her time on the court, was willing to uphold a lot of campaign finance regulations.

Almost everything that’s followed since then, Citizens United in 2010, McCutcheon in 2014, and other decisions striking down campaign finance laws, happened not because the world of politics changed or because there was some big insight on the court. It happened because the court became more conservative and what had been a five-four pro-regulation majority became a five-four anti-regulation majority.

It’s no surprise that the current court, which is now six-three against campaign finance regulation, doesn’t like a decision from this earlier period.

Will this ruling impact the midterm elections?

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In the near term, this will somewhat benefit the Republican Party committees that have more funds at their disposal because they have just happened to raise a lot more money recently than the Democratic Party entities.

However, even before this decision, all of those Republican entities could still spend their money however they wanted to, so it’s not that big of a change for them. I think Democrats will direct more of their donors to give some more money to party organizations. There might be a short-term benefit for Republicans, but I don’t think this will cause a great imbalance in the system going forward.

Overall, I’m not incredibly alarmed by this ruling. We’re still going to have in place various other laws and precautions that will stop some corruption.

It’s bad for our system to allow super PACs and dark-money groups to become the leading actors in campaign finance. I’d rather have the money in parties’ hands than in super PACs or dark-money groups’ hands. I don’t think the doors are really open for that much additional corruption here. I think there’s a non-trivial silver lining in strengthening political parties, which are valuable institutions.

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Goldman Sachs Sets $1 Trillion M&A Record

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Goldman Sachs Sets  Trillion M&A Record

Breaking a six-month record, the investment banking giant capitalizes on a surging wave of global megadeals.

Goldman Sachs said it had advised on more than $1 trillion of announced global mergers and acquisitions so far this year, the fastest any investment bank has reached that milestone in a six-month period, citing data from capital markets data provider Dealogic.

The bank attributed the milestone to a string of marquee mandates, including serving as co-financial adviser to Dominion Energy on its roughly $67 billion sale to rival utility NextEra Energy, announced last month, along with other major transactions.

Rise of the Megadeal

Goldman reported that its investment banking fees rose 48%, to $2.8 billion in the first quarter. It’s a reflection of the “K-shaped” M&A market, where megadeals are the dominant force, but deal volumes are declining, and mid-market activity is subdued. 

Data compiled by PwC revealed that the global M&A market is on track to reach $4 trillion in 2026, a 13% annual increase, with major sales estimated to account for 48% of deal value worldwide, a significant expansion from two years ago. 

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“Goldman has been the global leader in M&A advisory fees for more than 90 consecutive quarters. The fact that it’s reaping benefits from a moment of megadeal activity simply proves the strength of its franchise,” said Mark Narron, senior director at Fitch Ratings. “However, advisory revenues are generally a small share of total revenues. In 2021, which was Goldman’s record year for advisory, advisory revenues contributed only 10% of total revenues.” 

Fitch says it’s difficult to forecast whether Goldman’s advisory revenues will continue to climb, given the cyclical nature of advisory fees and uneven regional M&A trends — with most deal activity still concentrated in the U.S.

Fitch expects M&A activity to be sensitive to market conditions, economic growth, geopolitical events, and interest rates. Global growth is estimated to decelerate to 2.8% this year, according to the latest OECD economic outlook report. Inflationary pressures are rising in advanced and emerging economies due to energy shocks from the Iran conflict. Prices in the G20 economies are expected to climb to 4% in 2026. In a “prolonged disruption” scenario, inflation could rise further, which may prompt hawkish interest rate responses from central banks.

Peter Taberner is a contributing writer based in the U.K.

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Rodriguez fires campaign manager over finance filing issues – Civic Media

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Rodriguez fires campaign manager over finance filing issues – Civic Media

MADISON, Wis. (Civic Media) – Lt. Gov. Sara Rodriguez, a Democratic candidate for governor, fired her campaign manager Sunday after discovering problems with campaign finance filings, her campaign said.

The campaign said the person was terminated effective immediately following an internal review that found “serious mismanagement and inaccuracies” in reports they prepared. Staff identified the issues late last week and alerted Rodriguez, who then moved to secure campaign accounts and remove the staffer.

The campaign said it plans to contact the Wisconsin Ethics Commission on Monday to correct the filings ahead of a key reporting deadline Wednesday.

Full statement below.

“The Sara Rodriguez for Wisconsin campaign has terminated its campaign manager, effective today, after discovering serious mismanagement and inaccuracies in campaign finance filings she prepared. An initial review found that the manager filed inaccurate and incomplete campaign finance reports. The campaign will be in contact with the Wisconsin Ethics Commission first thing Monday morning to ensure the inaccuracies are corrected. The moment Sara learned of these inaccuracies, she acted swiftly and decisively removed her. The campaign will continue to build support to win in August and beat Tom Tiffany in November.”

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