Assess your financial risk before new policies affect the economy

I’ve been thinking about financial risk lately.

Should I change my asset allocation in my retirement portfolio, considering Donald Trump’s successful bid for the White House? Stock market valuations have risen smartly in recent years, which real income growth, productivity improvements, technological innovation, low unemployment rates and healthy corporate profits have largely powered. Yet with the election of Trump, voters have approved a massive economic experiment.

The Trump administration comes into power with many policy goals, but four economic initiatives stand out: Enacting significant tax cuts; imposing broad-based and significant tariffs; sweeping raids, mass deportations and tighter immigration controls; and slashing federal government regulations. The extent that these plans turn into reality and how each policy will interact with the others is uncertain. The risks are obvious. The outcome isn’t.

Enter risk management, a critical concept in finance. Professionals often associate risk with volatility. The tight link makes sense, since owning assets with high volatility hikes the odds of losses if there is a pressing need to sell the asset to raise money.

However, for the typical individual and household, risk means the odds money decisions made today don’t pan out. Managing risk means lowering the negative financial impact on your desired standard of living from decisions gone wrong and when circumstances take an untoward turn.

“Anything that makes reaching or maintaining that more likely reduces your risk, and anything that makes this less likely increases your risk,” writes Bob French, the investment expert at Retirement Researcher. “Everything else is just details.”

The key risk management concept is a margin of safety, a bedrock personal finance idea broader than investment portfolios. It can include having an emergency savings fund, owning life insurance to protect your family and investing in your network of friends and colleagues to hedge against the risk of losing your job. The right mix depends on the particulars of your situation.

In my case, after studying my portfolio, running household money numbers and reviewing lifestyle goals, I’m comfortable with the asset allocation in my retirement portfolio. There is too much noise in the markets for comfort, and market timing is always tricky. The prudent approach with my individual situation is to stay the course.